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Oil edges up, investors eye Trump statement on Russia

Oil prices increased on Monday adding to the gains of over 2% made on Friday as investors hoped for further U.S. Sanctions on Russia, which could affect global supply. However, a surge in Saudi production and tariff uncertainty limited gains.

Brent crude futures gained 15 cents, to $70.51 per barrel at 0400 GMT. This was a continuation of the 2.51% increase on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose to $68.59 up 14 cents after closing 2.82% higher the previous session.

Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said Sunday that he would send Patriot missiles for air defence to Ukraine. He will make a major statement on Russia on Monday.

Trump expressed his frustration at Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress made in ending the conflict in Ukraine, and Russia's increasing bombardment of Ukrainian city.

Last week, in an effort to pressurize Moscow into good faith peace negotiations with Ukraine a bipartisan U.S. Bill that would target Russia with sanctions gained momentum in Congress. However, it still needs Trump's support.

Four EU sources reported that after a meeting on Sunday, the European Union's envoys were on the verge to agree on an 18th package against Russia. This would include a lower cap on Russian crude oil.

Brent gained 3% last week while WTI saw a weekly gain around 2.2%. This was after the International Energy Agency stated that the global oil markets may be tighter then they appear, and demand is being supported by the peak summer refinery run to meet travel needs and power generation.

Analysts at ANZ said that the price increases were limited due to data showing Saudi Arabia increased its oil production above the quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies supply agreement.

Saudi Arabia surpassed its June oil production target by 430,000 barrels a day, reaching 9.8 million bpd. This compares to the implied OPEC+ goal of 9.37 millions bpd.

Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said Friday that the country had met its voluntary OPEC+ production target. It added that Saudi Arabia-marketed crude supplies in June were 9.352 millions bpd in accordance with the agreed quota.

According to data released by the customs on Monday, China's oil imports in June increased 7.4% from a year ago to 49.89 millions tons, which is equivalent to 12,14 million barrels a day. This was the highest rate per day since August 2023.

J.P. Morgan Research team in a client letter said that China will likely continue to stockpile, but since storage is at 95% the peak inventory build in 2020, these stocks are likely to appear in "visible" Western markets, which are critical for price formation and exerting downward pressure.

Investors also watch the outcome of U.S. trade talks with key trading partner that could affect global economic growth.

(source: Reuters)