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Oil prices fall on rising OPEC+ production, despite Canadian concerns

The oil prices fell in Asian trade Wednesday due to concerns about rising OPEC+ production and the threat of tariff tensions that could threaten global economic prospects. However, worries over Canadian supply kept them at a lower level.

Brent crude futures fell 23 cents (0.4%) to $65.40 per barrel at 0318 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down 25 cents (0.4%), at $63.16 per barrel.

The benchmarks rose about 2% to their highest level in two weeks on Tuesday, driven by concerns over disruptions to supply from wildfires in Canada and the expectation that Iran will reject a U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal which is key to easing sanctions against the major oil producer.

Tsuyoshi Ueno is a senior economist with the NLI Research Institute. He said that despite fears about Canadian supply, and the stalled Iran/U.S. nuclear talks, the oil markets struggle to extend their gains.

Ueno said that hopes of progress in U.S. - China trade talks had been overshadowed as investors remained cautious about the broader economic impact from tariffs.

White House Press Secretary Karoline leavitt announced on Monday that U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely speak this week. This comes after Trump had accused China of breaking a deal to reduce tariffs and trade restrictions.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its forecast for global growth on Tuesday as the impact of Trump's trade conflict has a greater toll on the U.S.

Analysts weighed up the impact on supply of OPEC+ and the Canadian wildfire situation.

In a client note, BofA analysts explained that the current backwardation of the crude futures curve was due to low inventories since the start of the year.

The contango farther out on the curve indicates that the market is anticipating future slack as a result of OPEC's planned increase in supply and a broader slowdown in the global economy.

The markets were expecting wildfires to continue to affect supply despite the temporary respite of wet weather.

In a note to clients, ING analysts warned that this relief might be short-lived due to forecasts of drier weather and warmer temperatures towards the end this week.

Analysts expect that the decrease in Canadian supply will offset over half of the increase planned for next month by OPEC+.

Ole Hvalbye of SEB, an analyst at the company, said that estimates suggest 350,000 barrels a day were affected by the fires and closed in.

To put this into context, the disruption is more than three-quarters the volume OPEC+ had agreed to add to market in July." (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed, Clarence Fernandez and Yuka Obayashi)

(source: Reuters)