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Russian Finance Minister returns to idea of adjusting the oil price budget rule

The Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated on Wednesday that an adjustment to the $60 oil price cut-off for Russia's Budget Rule should be considered. This could affect Moscow's capacity to increase spending and accumulate cash reserves.

According to the budget rule the Finance Ministry can sell foreign currency from the National Wealth Fund for rainy days in order to cover any shortfalls in oil and gas export revenues, or purchase it if there is a surplus.

Siluanov, who had earlier argued in favor of a change to the cut-off prices, has recently ruled it out for the budget for the next three years.

In response to a question from a legislator on Wednesday about Russia's diminishing reserves, he seemed to switch tack again, saying that the issue would be considered when formulating budget policies.

Siluanov stated that "we need to consider whether we should, when preparing the budget for the next medium-term period, look at the price cut-off level... and to what extent this corresponds to today's levels which allow us to not only ensure the preservation of National Wealth Fund but also its replenishment."

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia's fiscal buffers are shrinking. Moscow has been using its wealth fund to finance deficits and support government-owned enterprises. On May 1, the fund's liquid assets were $40.4 billion, down from $112.7 before the invasion.

Oil prices, which are the foundation of Russia's export oriented economy, allow Russia to put money aside. However, with Brent futures at about $60 per barrel and Urals crude falling even further, Moscow's finances have been under pressure.

The lower price would enable Russia to save petrodollars. However, analysts note that this may not be possible, given the amount of money Moscow is spending on the Ukraine war. Reporting by Darya Kosunskaya, Writing by Alexander Marrow, Editing by Alison Williams & Helen Popper

(source: Reuters)