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World Bank expects commodity prices to fall back to levels before COVID

The World Bank forecast on Tuesday that a weakening of global growth, due to trade tensions, will drive global commodity prices down by 12% in 2020 and another 5% to their lowest levels in the 2000s.

According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook Report from the development lender, inflation-adjusted commodity prices will fall to their average 2015-2019 in the next two year, bringing an end to the price boom fuelled by the COVID-19 recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 2022.

This decline may moderate the inflation risks that are associated with new U.S. trade barriers and steep tariffs, but could also have adverse consequences for developing countries that export commodities.

Indermit Gil, World Bank's Chief Economist, said that higher commodity prices were a boon to many developing countries. Two-thirds are exporters of commodities. Now we are seeing the most volatile price levels in over 50 years. "The combination of low prices and high price volatility spells trouble."

He said that these countries should liberalize their trade wherever possible, restore fiscal discipline, and create an environment more friendly to business in order to attract private investment.

The World Bank reported that while rising energy prices contributed to global inflation by more than 2 percentage points in 2022 but felling prices in 2023-2024 helped moderate it.

The report predicted that energy prices will fall by 17%, to the lowest level they have been in five years. They are then expected to drop another 6% between 2026 and 2026.

Brent crude is expected to average $64 a barrel by 2025, a $17 decline from 2024, and $60 a bar in 2026, amidst abundant supply and declining demand. This is partly due to China's rapid adoption of electric cars, the largest auto market in the world. Brent traded at $64.80 per barrel in the early hours of Tuesday.

As coal consumption in developing countries slows, the price of coal is expected to drop by 27% in 2025.

Food prices will also be expected to fall, by 7% by 2025, and another 1% in the following year. However, this won't do much to alleviate food insecurity in some of those countries that are most vulnerable, as humanitarian aid is cut back and armed conflict fuels acute hunger.

According to the World Bank report, gold prices will likely set a record in 2025 due to investors seeking safe havens in an uncertain world. However, they predict that price stabilization in 2026. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Reporting by David Lawder)

(source: Reuters)