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Outflows into U.S. stocks support copper prices
The copper price rose to its highest level in over a week Tuesday, boosted by the ongoing withdrawals from U.S. stocks, but weaker prospects for demand from China, a major metals consumer, capped gains. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $10,833.50 per metric tonne by 0948 GMT, after reaching $10,884.50. This was its highest level since November 14. Copper stocks at the LME registered warehouses The Comex Copper stocks have fallen 42% this year. After hitting a new record in recent days, the continues to rise. The premium for the LME Cash Copper Contract over the 3-month forward was a result of this activity. On Monday, the price of a ton rose to $25. This was its highest level since mid-October. The premium last stood at $10 on February. Commodity Market Analytics' managing director Dan Smith said that there is a continuing squeeze caused by the outflow of Comex copper stock as people worry about potential U.S. tariffs. This is causing an artificial tightening, which has led LME copper to act in its own way. Smith said that the weak fixed-asset investments data for China between January and October could indicate a broader economic slowdown, which would add pressure to industrial metal prices next month. The Yangshan premium The, a measure of Chinese demand for copper, dropped 6% on Monday and fell back to its four-month-low, which was reached a week earlier. The LME copper benchmark broke above the resistance of the 21-day moving median, which now supports the price at $10,828. Metal, which is used for power and construction, reached a record of $11,200 a tonne less than a week ago, due to concerns about a tighter supply of copper from the Grasberg Mine in Indonesia in this year and next. Aluminium and zinc, two other LME metals rose by 0.1% each to $2,812.50 per ton and to $3,002.50. Lead dropped 0.1% to $1982, tin rose 0.2% at $37,385 while nickel fell 0.2% at $14,670. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens; Polina Devtt)
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Report: Serbia's NIS refinery ceases operations due to U.S. sanctions
The NOVA.RS TV in Belgrade reported that the operations at Serbia's Russian owned NIS oil refinery had ceased due to a shortage of crude oil. This is the latest indication that U.S. sanction on the project may threaten fuel supplies throughout the Balkan nation. NIS officials and the Serbian government declined comment. In January, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Treasury Department placed sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, including NIS. NIS is owned in majority by Russia’s Gazprom and Gazprom. US repeatedly granted NIS waivers until the sanctions came into force in October. The banks then stopped processing NIS and Croatia's JANAF JANF.ZA The pipeline has halted crude oil deliveries to refineries. Serbia has scrambled to find alternative fuels for the winter since then. Serbian government said on Monday that it has sufficient fuel Reserves to supply the domestic markets. NOVA reported that on Tuesday the refinery stopped working due to a shortage of crude oil. This means it won't be able produce any more gasoline, jet fuel, or diesel. The news was confirmed by a refinery source. NOVA and a source confirmed that the refinery has fuel in storage. Dugravka Djedovic Handanovic, the energy minister, said that NIS reserves, including all reserves held with NIS, totaled 89,825 tons of diesel, and 53,648 tonnes of gasoline. She said that the government approved the importation of 38,000 tons of petrol and 66,000 tonnes of diesel to be stored in state reserves. Gazprom holds 44.9% and Gazprom GAZP.MM 11,3% of NIS. Serbia holds 29.9% of NIS, and the rest is held by small investors. Washington wants NIS to divest of all Russian assets and has given its owners three months in which to find a buyer for the Russian stake.
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Gold drops from over a week high due to delayed US data
The dollar remained firm on Tuesday as gold prices fell from a peak of over a week. Investors awaited delayed U.S. data that may help refine expectations about future Federal Reserve rate reductions. Gold spot dropped 0.2%, to $4,129.89 an ounce, by 0942 GMT. This follows a surge of more than 2% the previous session. Prices had risen to their highest levels since November 14 earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were 0.8% higher, at $4.126.60 an ounce. The dollar remained close to the near six-month peak reached last week, limiting bullion's gains as a stronger greenback increases gold's price for holders of other currencies. Nitesh Sha, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said: "We have seen a broad rise across all assets. This is partly due to the markets reevaluating the timing of future Fed cuts." The shutdown has delayed the release of new data, which is adding to the volatility. However, the fragility of the market itself continues to be in gold's favor. Even today's pullback appears to be a normal correction after the prices rose too quickly." Later in the day, the U.S. releases retail sales data and producer price data. The shutdown delayed the release of both datasets. Investors are expecting to get a better understanding of the Fed rate path. CME data shows that the markets are pricing in an 81% probability of a rate cut for December and an 86% chance of one in January. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the labor market has softened to the point where another quarter-point reduction in December is justified. However, further steps will depend on the data. John Williams, the New York Fed president, had said that rates may fall "in a near-term." Low interest rates are a good thing for non-yielding gold. Shah said that a dollar with a structurally weaker structure could push gold to $4,700 in 2026. Palladium fell 1.1%, to $1,380.00, while platinum was unchanged at $1,543.46. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema in Bengaluru, Sherin Elizabeth Varighese)
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European shares sluggish as markets become cautious in anticipation of US data
Investors were cautious on Tuesday ahead of U.S. data and expectations of rate cuts in the largest economy of the world. By 0934 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was down by 0.2% to 562.06 point. The major regional bourses also fell, with Germany's DAX down 0.4%, and France down by 0.1%. The markets are awaiting the release of the producer inflation report as well as retail sales data in the U.S. These are among the first large datasets released after the longest government shutdown ever, which has left the Federal Reserve and the markets with a data hole. Fiona Cincotta is a senior market analyst with City Index. She said: "This will be the first real insight we get into how the economy performed during that long shutdown. So, understandably, there's an element of caution." This data was released after New York's President John William, who is also a Fed Governor, suggested that the continued weakness of labour data might warrant a further quarter-point decrease in December. Travel and leisure stocks and automobile stocks both fell by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. Defense firms led the way in a 0.1% increase for industrial stocks. The European defence industry as a whole was up by 0.9%. The stock had fallen over 5% during the previous two sessions on expectations of a Russia-Ukraine deal. Cincotta said that the latest headlines raise questions about whether or not this peace agreement will be implemented. This is why there's a growth in the defense sector. Investor sentiment has soured as the STOXX index fell from its record highs of mid-November, as fears over a rally driven by AI that was overheated and expectations that Fed would delay a rate cut in December soured investor sentiment. Kingfisher, a home improvement retailer, upgraded its profit forecast for the full year and was one of the best-performing stocks on the STOXX 600. Beazley's share price dropped 10%, making it one of the worst performers in STOXX600 after reducing its written premium forecast. The company cited increased competition and a weakening growth rate for cyber insurance. Compass Group, a London-based company, lost 3% of its annual revenues and profits despite exceeding expectations. Thyssenkrupp nucera dropped 7.6% following a sharply reduced sales forecast for 2026. Thyssenkrupp is the majority owner, and it fell 3.6%. A spokesperson from the Spanish stock exchange stated that the stock market was operating normally but the index values weren't displayed due to a technical problem. (Reporting from Anastasiia Kozolova in Gdansk, and Purvi Agarwal at Bengaluru. Editing by Mrigank Dahniwala and Sonia Cheema.
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Stocks gain from Fed cuts; dollar stable
Investors piled into technology stocks on Tuesday, despite concerns that the sector was overheating. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is on the verge of reaching a valuation of $4 trillion, making it the only fourth company in the world to do so. This shows that investors are confident the AI-fueled tech boom will continue. MSCI's All-World Index rose for the third consecutive day, lifting it off its two-month-lows from last week. Shares in Europe increased by 0.2%, and U.S. index futures were nearing positive territory. Bets on RISING RATE Cuts The yield on 10-year Treasury bills was unchanged at 4,036%. The yield on two-year Treasury notes, which is influenced by traders' expectations for lower Fed funds rates, was flat at 3.49% after dropping 2.5 basis point in the previous session. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that available data indicated the U.S. employment market was still weak enough to warrant a further quarter-point reduction. His comments followed those made by New York Fed president John Williams who said late Friday night that a rate cut could be possible in December. According to CME's FedWatch Tool the markets now price in 81% of a quarter point cut next month. This is up from 42.4% one week ago. The U.S. central bank will meet on December 9-10. Investors will have the opportunity to review delayed data about retail sales, wholesale prices, consumer confidence and home prices on Tuesday. However, these numbers may not be significant in determining what the Fed does next month. Dollar's impact has been limited by the recent shift in expectations regarding interest rates. This month it has risen against all major currencies except for the offshore Chinese Yuan which has increased by around 0.5%. This suggests to me that the FX markets are still trading on growth differentials, and the U.S. is outperforming its peers, now, and will likely continue to do so until 2026. Tensions over Japan The dollar is gaining against the Japanese yen. It's at its lowest level in 10 months, and officials in Tokyo are worried about intervening to help it. The dollar fell 0.3% in the last hour at 156.47 after gaining 1.6% during November. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1531. The ongoing dispute between Tokyo and Beijing is adding to the tension on Japanese markets. This was over a comment made by Japan's prime minister Sanae Takaichi in November, that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would trigger a Japanese response. Takaichi spoke with Donald Trump on Tuesday after his Monday call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. She claimed that Trump had explained U.S. China relations to her. Trump announced on Monday that he will travel to Beijing in early April. This was seen as another sign of the improvement of diplomatic and political relations following the truce in their trade war. The U.S. bond and stock markets will close on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday. They will reopen on Friday for a half-day. ALPHABET HEADS TO $4 TRILLION Alphabet's shares rose 2.5% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, suggesting a rally in U.S. Premarket Trading. This follows a report by The Information, stating that Facebook parent Meta was in talks with Alphabet to use their AI chips in data centres starting in 2027, and to rent them next year. Brent crude futures dropped 0.8% to $62.88 per barrel on concerns that global supplies could increase significantly relative to demand in the next year. Gold fell 0.6%, to $4,115 per ounce. However, it was still on track for a gain of nearly 3% in November. (Reporting and editing by Scott Murdoch, Amanda Cooper and Tomasz Janowowski)
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Sources say that India's Russian oil binge will end in December, as sanctions bite.
India's Russian crude oil imports will be at their lowest level in three years by December. They were already higher than they had been for several months in November as refiners sought alternatives to avoid violating Western sanctions. The United States, Britain and the European Union have all tightened sanctions against Moscow in response to the conflict in Ukraine. Washington's most recent measures target top Russian oil producers Rosneft, and Lukoil. The deadline for buyers of Russian oil to end their dealings with these two companies was November 21. Separately the EU set a deadline of 21 January after which it would refuse fuel from refineries who handled Russian crude in the 60 days following the bill of loading. BANK SCRUTINY LEADS BANK CAUTION One of the sources in the refinery industry said that the recent U.S. sanction has caused Indian refiners to be "extremely careful" after the scrutiny of banks. India will likely receive 600,000 - 650,000 barrels of Russian oil per day by December. Source: These include imports from Indian Oil Corp., Nayara Energy, and the delivery of certain November-loading cargoes to Reliance Industries. The source cited preliminary lifting plans by Indian companies. Kpler's preliminary data showed that India will receive 1,87 million bpd in Russian crude this month. Data from trade sources show that in October, India imported 1.65 millions bpd more Russian oil than it did in September. A trade source said that "Russian supplies are expected to be very high in November, as many refineries have been trying to fill their stocks before the U.S. sanction deadline. This is also due to a rule that will allow oil products to be produced for the EU market using non-Russian crude oil starting 2026." Sources requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak with media. MOST INDIAN REFINERS STOP RUSSIAN BUYS The majority of Indian refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd have stopped purchasing Russian oil. Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petrol Corp., both state-owned companies, have announced that they will only buy from non-sanctioned parties. Nayara Energy, a company owned in part by Rosneft and exclusively processing Russian oil, has been the sole supplier of Russian crude after other suppliers withdrew following British sanctions and EU sanctions. Reliance Industries Ltd. has announced that it had loaded Russian oil cargoes as "precommitted", starting on October 22. It will also process any parcels arriving after November 20, at its refinery, which is designed to produce fuels specifically for the local market. Reliance is the operator of one of the largest refining complexes in the world. It has two refineries, with the first catering to the export market. As refiners took advantage of an arbitrage opportunity, the share of U.S. crude oil in India's imports of oil in October soared to its highest level since June 2024. India is also being urged to buy more U.S. Energy after Washington doubled the tariffs on Indian Imports to 50% citing New Delhi’s purchase of Russian Oil.
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Source: India considers import tariffs on certain steel products
According to a person with direct knowledge, India is considering increasing the import duty on certain steel products, also known locally as a "safeguard duty", to compete against cheaper imports, primarily from China. India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, recommended in August a three-year tariff of 11-12% on certain steel products, as part of its final findings. The Directorate General of Trade Remedies, under the federal ministry of trade, was responsible for this recommendation. The source declined to identify themselves due to the sensitive nature the issue. The Indian Ministry of Finance didn't immediately reply to an email seeking comment. In April, the Indian government imposed a temporary tariff of 12% for 200 days. This expired earlier this month. India's imports of finished steel during the first seven month period of the current financial year fell 34.1% on an annual basis. South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia were the top exporters of finished steel into India in the past year, with 1.4 million tons. Sources said that Chinese steel exports left India "vulnerable" primarily because of the lower prices. The state-backed Steel Association announced late last month that China's output of steel will fall below 1 billion tonnes this year, for the first in six years. This is on track to meet government pledges to reduce production. Beijing announced a plan in late October to reduce the existing steel capacity. This will help to balance supply and demand for a sector that has been plagued by overcapacity. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Neha Arora)
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Indonesian islanders seek justice, plant mangroves as seas rise
Residents of Pari Island sue Swiss Cement Maker Holcim Climate change is blamed for higher temperatures and warmer seas Indonesian coastline is being eroded by mangroves. By Leo Galuh The Women's Group of Pari Island is hoping that mangroves will protect its coastline from rising sea levels, tidal flooding, and stronger waves. Mangroves absorb greenhouse gases, which are harmful to the planet. The sea has changed. "It's hotter and rougher. It scares us," Asmania, a mom of three, said as she dug her hands in the sand below the shallow sea. Pari Island, near Jakarta's capital, is home to only 1,000 people. However, it is the subject of an important court case that has global significance over the effects of climate change on the island's beaches. Asmania (who goes by one name) and three other residents of the island sued Holcim, a Swiss cement company, in 2023. They accused it of failing reduce emissions while their island was repeatedly flooded. According to the Global Cement and Concrete Association, the production of cement contributes approximately 7% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. The court in Zug, the city where Holcim's headquarters is located, has yet to decide whether or not it will hear the case. SINKING ISLAND Indonesia, an archipelago of 81,000 km coastline, is extremely vulnerable to erosion. The sea level has been rising by 4.25 millimetres per year since 1992 and threatens to submerge smaller islands such as Pari. According to the environmental group Indonesian Forum for the Environment, and Swiss Church Aid (a non-profit working on climate justice), who are supporting the lawsuit against Holcim, about 11% of Pari’s 42 hectares have already been lost to the ocean. Asmania believes that Holcim's cement plant in Indonesia has contributed to the rising sea level, even though it hasn't operated since 2019. This is not a matter of distance. "This is global damage caused Holcim's emission," she said. "It is unfair, because we are the ones who suffer from the impact." Asmania arrived on Pari Island for the first time in 2005, when it was a clear, cool sea rich in life that allowed people to grow seaweed and fish. She first noticed the water warming up in 2010. She said that the seawater was cool and bluish green, allowing seaweed to grow at a depth around 30 centimetres. "In 2023, our seaweed harvest failed. "It all melted because of the heat from seawater," Asmania said, showing a seaweed clump with white patches. Sartono, her husband, said that only seven of 400 groupers released in his farm by him in August were still there two months later. According to a study in 2025 published in Frontiers in Marine Science, sea surface temperatures in Indonesian water have been steadily rising since 1982. They are warming by 0.19 degrees Celsius (0.34 F) per decade as a result of climate change. Accountability is a priority The Cantonal Court of Zug conducted a preliminary hearing on September but has not decided whether or not the case will proceed. Its future is uncertain. The case, although it may not affect international law, is indicative of a growing trend where communities are testing corporate accountability beyond borders, according to Glenn Wijaya. A Jakarta-based attorney who specializes in mining, renewable energy, and energy projects. He said that there is a growing momentum in the world whereby people who are affected by climate change, and particularly those companies with major emissions, file lawsuits. A German court in May rejected the appeal of a Peruvian farm against RWE. He accused RWE, Germany's energy company, for putting his home and livelihood at risk due to climate change. It set a precedent, however, by determining that companies are liable for their emissions. Mustaghfirin (53), another plaintiff who uses only one name in the Holcim lawsuit, stated that catching fish in recent years has become more difficult due to unpredictable weather and sea currents. He could catch up to 60 kg per day in the 2000s. Since 2020, his daily catch has been no more than 10kg. Fishermen depend on nature. He said that if we treat the nature well, she will return the favor. Mangroves are a great way to prevent erosion, absorb CO2, and provide a breeding ground for crabs, sea cucumbers, and fish. A report from the World Bank in 2022 states that more than half of Indonesia's total catch is made up of species dependent on mangroves. The report estimated that mangroves are worth between $15,000 and almost $50,000 annually, depending on the amount of carbon they sequester. Indonesia is home to 20 percent of the mangroves in the world. The vegetation, which looks like upside-down tree root, acts as a barrier to waves, a nursery and carbon sink. Over time, sediment trapped in the soil can expand coastal areas and create new land. The roots of the mangrove act as natural barriers that absorb up to 90 percent of wave energy. They hold back sediments that come from seawater and land runoff, stabilizing the coast and preventing erosion, said Fery Kurniawan. He is a lecturer on aquatic resource management in the West Java Province at the Bogor Agricultural Institute. It can be hard for them to thrive. Greenpeace activist Jeanny Sirait in Indonesia said that seedlings need to have a minimum of a third above the water surface for photosynthesis. She said that only five mangroves out of ten are likely to survive because of these natural hazards. Asmania, despite the challenges, said she would continue to restore mangroves on Rengge Beach in an effort to save the Island.
Hurriyet: Minister tells Hurriyet that Turkey wants to extend the gas supply agreement with Turkmenistan
Alparslan Bayraktar, Turkish Energy minister, told the Hurriyet newspaper on Tuesday that Turkey and Turkmenistan are negotiating a deal to extend the natural gas supply contract for five years. He added that the deal should be finalised by the end of the year.
Later in the day, Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan and Vice President Cevdet Ylmaz will meet Turkmenistan officials in Ankara.
Bayraktar announced earlier this month that Turkmenistan and Turkey had signed a contract for Turkmen gas to be supplied to Turkey. The Turkmengaz and Turkey's BOTAS pipeline operators have signed an agreement that will begin March 1 with 1.3 billion cubic metres of gas flowing via Iran.
"We are committed to this for the long term. Our long-term objective is to reach a swap agreement. We are currently working on a program that could extend to a 5-year swap agreement by the end of this year," Hurriyet reported Bayraktar.
Turkey uses more than 50 billion cubic meters of gas per year. It relies on gas imported from Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and liquefied gas.
Bayraktar stated that the Turkish government aims to sign an oil and gas exploration licence in Somali land block on March 1. As part of a deal with its East African allie, Turkey conducts exploration off Somalia.
(source: Reuters)