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Big Oil's profits from refining are expected to decline in 2025

Oil executives are not optimistic about the refining industry in 2025

Exxon and Chevron Q4 profit hurt by weak refinery sector

Fuel demand in the US and China is waning, posing challenges for independent refiners

Sheila Dang & Shariq Khan

HOUSTON, January 31 - Big Oil executives saw little hope for a near-term increase in refinery profits, after Chevron Exxon Mobil, and Shell reported earnings in the fourth quarter that were severely affected by a decline in margins. Refining margins have been hurt by a combination of sputtering growth in demand and an increase in global refinery capacity in 2024. Chevron shares fell 4% following its first loss in the refining sector since 2020. The No. 2 U.S. producer of oil missed Wall Street's profit forecast. In an interview, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that the trend of softening margins through 2024 will continue and extend into 2025. He said, "There's no doubt that it was a poor fourth quarter," in an interview.

"I won't call it a storm of the century, but I will say that it was a quarter where everything went in one direction and was negative."

Wirth said Chevron will focus on what they can control to recover, including lighter maintenance schedules for refineries in the coming year. Exxon Mobil shares dropped 2.5% following a 75% drop in adjusted earnings for refining when compared to the third quarter. S&P 500 Energy Sector Index fell 2.8% on the Friday.

Kathryn Mikells, Exxon's Chief Finance Officer, stated in an interview that the refining industry is still under pressure due to the additional fuel entering the market as a result of new refineries opening in countries all over the world.

She said, "That is what we are watching as we look forward to 2025."

The number one U.S. oil producer still beat profit estimates with higher production from the Permian basin, the top U.S. oilfield, and Guyana, which is the latest hotspot for oil. The No.

Shell, a UK-based company, said Thursday that it has no plans to expand its refining business but also does not intend to leave it.

In part due to lower refining margins, the company's earnings for the fourth quarter of 2008 nearly halved to $3.66 Billion. Shell sold its chemical and refining hub in Singapore in the past year, and it plans to close another plant in Wesseling in Germany.

HIT TO INDEPENDENT RIFERS

Oil majors were cushioned by higher production of oil and gas, but pure-play refiners suffered as the demand for fuel in the U.S., and China, two of the largest oil consumers, fell.

Phillips 66s profit for the fourth quarter dropped to $8 million, down from $1.26 Billion in the previous quarter. Valero’s refining profits dropped by 73% in its fourth quarter. Valero CEO Lane Riggs said on Thursday that two U.S. refining plants are scheduled to close in this year, and limited capacity increases beyond 2025 should help sustain the margins of refineries over the long-term. Investors also worried about U.S. president Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs for crude imports from Canada or Mexico on February 1, which could increase costs for U.S. refining companies. TotalEnergies, the French oil giant, will announce its fourth-quarter results on February 5, and British oil producer BP on February 11. BP warned that a decline in the refining margins, as well as the impact of maintenance and turnaround activities could result in a quarterly profit drop of up to $300,000,000. Sheila Dang reported from Houston, and Richard Valdmanis edited the story with Simon Webb and Margueritachoy.

(source: Reuters)