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Rising Asian thermal coal imports driven by Japan, S.Korea: Russell

Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal ticked up in August to the greatest in 8 months, however the strength was largely driven by North Asia's established economies rather than the typical heavyweights of China and India.

A total of 79.87 million metric tons of the fuel primarily used to create electrical energy will come to Asian ports in August, according to data put together by product analysts Kpler.

This is up from 77.1 million loads in July and is the greatest since December's 80.54 million.

Asia's need for thermal coal has accelerated in current months in the middle of warmer-than-usual summertime weather, which has enhanced demand for air conditioning.

The increased demand for coal utilized in power generation has been most acutely felt in the established economies of North Asia, specifically Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Japan, Asia's third-biggest coal importer behind China and India, is on track for imports of 9.09 million tons of thermal coal in August, below July's 9.53 million, according to Kpler.

However July and August are Japan's 2 strongest months for thermal coal imports since the peak cold weather of January, and August's arrivals are also higher than the 8.91 million in the very same month last year.

South Korea, Asia's fourth-ranked coal importer, is on track for imports of 8.27 million heaps in August, the greatest given that July 2022 and up from 6.58 million in July.

Taiwan's imports are approximated at 4.13 million tons in August, down slightly from July's 4.46 million, but these two months are the strongest given that September in 2015.

A common element between Japan, South Korea and Taiwan is they prefer higher grade thermal coal, with the standard being Australian coal packed at Newcastle port with an energy content of 6,000 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg).

The index for this grade, as assessed by commodity rate reporting company Argus, reached the greatest because late December in the week to Aug. 23, ending at $146.03 a. ton.

This was up partially from $145.92 a ton the previous week,. although the index has actually rallied 11.7% from its mid-year low of. $ 130.68 reached in the week to June 28.

CHINA, INDIA

While the rate of higher quality Australian coal has actually been. driven by increasing demand in North Asia, the exact same can not be stated. for lower-grade fuel, which is favoured by China and India, as. well as buyers in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam and Malaysia.

Australian coal with an energy content of 5,500 kcal/kg. dropped to $86.41 a ton last week, its fourth. directly weekly decline and it's now at the weakest since April.

Indonesian coal with an energy material of 4,200 kcal/kg. fell to a 1 year low $50.64 a heap in the. week to Aug. 23, its 5th straight losing week.

Indonesia is the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal. and Australia ranks second, while China and India are the. biggest buyers of Indonesia freights and of lower-grade. Australian fuel.

China's imports of seaborne thermal coal edged higher in. August to 29.97 million lots, up from 28.52 million July.

However, for the past four months China's thermal coal. imports have been efficiently flat, anchored in a narrow variety. around 30 million lots, indicating the strong growth in demand. over the past two years appears to be levelling out.

India is on track for imports of 13.45 million tons of. seaborne thermal coal imports in August, down a touch from. July's 13.67 million.

Comparable to China, India's imports for the past three months. have been effectively flat around 13.5 million loads.

The constant picture for China and India goes some method to. describe the current gentle downtrend in the costs of lower grade. coal, while the increasing imports in North Asia's established. economies justify the move up for higher quality coal.

Nevertheless, North Asia's need tends to be more seasonal and. will go into the slack duration between the summer season and winter. peaks, which might put some downward pressure on the Newcastle. Index rate.

But much will depend upon whether utilities in those countries. wish to keep sufficient stockpiles ahead of the winter season peak, which. may lead to stronger-than-usual demand in the shoulder season.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)