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How might a US-Saudi civil nuclear deal work?

White House National Security Consultant Jake Sullivan will visit Saudi Arabia this weekend for talks expected to discuss a civil nuclear cooperation arrangement, one piece of a wider arrangement Washington hopes will lead to normalization of IsraeliSaudi relations.

Below is a description of the essential problems involved in a. U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear offer, what dangers and benefits it may. use the United States and Saudi Arabia, and how it fits within. U.S. efforts to broker Israeli-Saudi reconciliation.

WHAT IS A CIVIL NUCLEAR COOPERATION ARRANGEMENT?

Under Area 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the. United States may negotiate arrangements to engage in significant. civil nuclear cooperation with other nations.

It defines 9 nonproliferation requirements those states. must fulfill to keep them from using the technology to establish. nuclear arms or transfer sensitive materials to others.

The law states congressional review of such pacts.

WHY DOES SAUDI ARABIA WANT A United States NUCLEAR COOPERATION. CONTRACT?

As the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia at first. look is not an obvious prospect for a nuclear pact typically. targeted at constructing power plants to generate electrical power.

There are 2 factors Riyadh may want to do so.

The first is that under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's. ambitious Vision 2030 reform strategy, the kingdom intends to create. significant renewable energy and decrease emissions. A minimum of some. of this is expected to come from nuclear energy.

Critics mention a second possible reason: that Riyadh might. dream to develop nuclear know-how in case it at some point wanted to. obtain nuclear weapons in spite of the safeguards enshrined in any. handle Washington to prevent this. The Saudi crown prince has long said that if Iran developed a. nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would follow suit, a position that. has sustained deep concern among arms control advocates and some. U.S. lawmakers over a possible U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear deal.

The Sunni Muslim kingdom and Shi'ite revolutionary Iran have. been at odds for years.

HOW WOULD THE UNITED STATES BENEFIT FROM A CIVIL NUCLEAR. DEAL WITH SAUDI ARABIA?

There could be strategic and industrial gains.

The Biden administration has actually made obvious of its want to. broker a long-shot, multi-part arrangement leading Saudi Arabia. and Israel to normalize relations. It thinks Saudi support for. normalization might hinge partially on striking a civil nuclear offer.

The tactical benefits would be to shore up Israel's. security, develop a broader coalition against Iran and enhance. U.S. ties to one of the wealthiest Arab countries at a time when. China is seeking to extend its influence in the Gulf.

The industrial benefit would be to put U.S. industry in a. prime area to win contracts to develop Saudi nuclear power plants,. as U.S. atomic business take on Russia, China and other. countries for international business.

WHAT ARE THE HURDLES TO A US-SAUDI CIVIL NUCLEAR OFFER?

To begin, it is all however inconceivable while the Gaza war. rages.

Israel invaded the Gaza Strip after Hamas-led shooters on Oct. 7 assaulted southern Israeli neighborhoods, eliminating about 1,200. individuals and taking 253 captives, according to Israeli figures.

The Gaza death toll, health authorities in the Hamas-run. seaside enclave state, has increased to more than 35,000 and. poor nutrition is extensive.

It is tough to imagine the Saudis wanting to stabilize. relations while Palestinians are passing away in such numbers.

WHAT IS THE WIDER PACT IN WHICH A NUCLEAR OFFER MIGHT FIGURE?

The United States wants to discover a method to offer Saudi Arabia. several things it desires - a civil nuclear pact, security. guarantees and a path toward a Palestinian state - in return. for Riyadh consenting to stabilize relations with Israel. Earlier this month, seven people familiar with the matter told. the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia were. completing an agreement for U.S. security assurances and. civilian nuclear assistance to Riyadh.

However, the broader Israel-Saudi normalization envisaged as. part of a Middle East grand bargain stays evasive.

WHAT ARE SOME OF THE SECRET CONCERNS TO BE WORKED OUT IN A. SAUDI-US NUCLEAR OFFER

A crucial issue is whether Washington may consent to build a. uranium enrichment center on Saudi area, when it may do. so, and whether Saudi personnel may have access to it or it. would be run entirely by U.S. staff in a black box plan.

Without safeguards built into an arrangement, Saudi Arabia,. which has uranium ore, could theoretically use an enrichment. facility to produce extremely enriched uranium, which, if cleansed. enough, can yield fissile product for bombs.

Another problem is whether Riyadh would accept make a Saudi. financial investment in a U.S.-based and U.S.-owned uranium enrichment. plant and to work with U.S. companies to construct Saudi nuclear. reactors.

(source: Reuters)