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Oil holds onto gains as investors bet on tighter supply

Oil rates edged down slightly on Monday, hanging on to most of their current gains amidst expectations of tighter supply from OPEC+ cuts, attacks on Russian refineries and positive Chinese manufacturing information.

Brent crude fell 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $86.83 a. barrel by 0017 GMT after increasing 2.4% recently. U.S. West Texas. Intermediate crude was at $83.06 a barrel, down 11 cents,. or 0.1%, following a 3.2% gain last week.

Trade volumes are anticipated to be thin on Monday as several. countries are closed for Easter vacation.

Both criteria completed greater for a third consecutive. month, with Brent holding above $85 a barrel since mid-March, as. the Company of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their. allies, a group known as OPEC+, promised to extend production. cuts to the end of June which might tighten up crude supply throughout. summer in the northern hemisphere.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday. that its oil companies will focus on lowering output instead of. exports in the second quarter in order to evenly spread. production cuts with other OPEC+ member nations.

Drone attacks knocked out a number of Russian refineries, which. is anticipated to decrease Russia's fuel exports.

Geopolitical dangers to unrefined and heavy feedstock products. contribute to strong Q2 24 need fundamentals, Energy Aspects. experts stated in a note.

Almost 1 million barrels daily of Russian crude processing. capability is offline amid the attacks, affecting its high-sulphur. fuel oil exports which is processed at Chinese and Indian. refineries, the consultancy added.

In Europe, oil need was firmer than anticipated, rising. 100,000 bpd on year in February, Goldman Sachs experts said,. versus its forecast of a 200,000 bpd contraction in 2024.

Europe's firm demand, softness in U.S. supply growth combined. with a possible extension of OPEC+ cuts through 2024 surpass. downside danger from persistent softness in China's demand, they. said in a note.

We see the threats to our forecast that Brent will balance. $ 83/bbl in 2024Q4 as manipulated reasonably to the benefit, the. analysts said.

Still, China's production activity expanded for the first. time in 6 months in March, an official factory survey showed. on Sunday, supporting oil need at the world's biggest crude. importer, even as a crisis in the property sector remains a drag. on the economy.

Investors are also searching U.S. financial information for indications of. when the Federal Reserve will cut rate of interest this year which. will support the global economy and oil need.

(source: Reuters)