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German yields on policy sensitive bonds are at their highest level in two years, while French long-end bonds hit 4%

As the Iran conflict intensified, German borrowing costs rose to a new two-year peak and French longer-dated rates rose above 4% for a first time since June 2009. This boosted expectations of higher inflation and policy rate. Brent crude oil prices surpassed $95 per barrel on Wednesday. U.S. president Donald Trump also said that the U.S. will "bomb and demolish one bridge or power station" if Iran attacks a ship near the Strait of Hormuz. German yields on two-year bonds, which are sensitive to expectations of policy rates, increased 4.5 basis points to 2.8425%. This is their highest level since July 2024.

Money markets predicted that the deposit rate at the European Central Bank would be 2.70% by December 2027 and 2.78% by?February, 2027. It is currently 2.25%. Also, they fully priced in a rate increase for September. The market participants continue to expect that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week.

James Bilson is a global fixed income strategist at Schroders. He said that the European Central Bank's key message after its 25 basis point rate increase in June was not to just "one and done".

"However the market repricing?has already been substantial, and with no reductions now priced in for the next two-years, despite the uninspiring outlook for growth, this leaves us feeling more optimistic about the euro zone's duration."

In order to be constructive about duration, you should favor longer-dated bonds in the hope that yields will fall. The benchmark 10-year German government bond yield for the euro zone was 2 basis points higher at 3.18%. It was at 3.20% by mid-May, the highest since May 2011.

FRENCH AND ITALIAN ?YIELDS AT 4%

The cost of borrowing long-term in France and Italy is very close to 4%.

The 10-year Italian bond yield climbed 3.5 basis points, to 4.03%. It had risen above the 4% mark on Tuesday for the first time since the 30th of March. Spread between Italian government bonds & Bunds reached 82 basis points, its highest level since early May. The spread was 63 bps before the Iran War began and reached 103.62 at the end of March, its highest level since early 2025.

France's 10-year yields have reached 4%, the highest since June 2009. They were up by 2.5 basis points at 3.99%. The yields on UK gilts were close to their two-month highs following data showing that inflation was lower than expected. The easing of consumer price pressures is likely to be a temporary relief for the new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, as he attempts to lower living costs.

The yield gap between the government bonds of Britain and Bunds is 187 basis points, putting the fiscal trajectory in the spotlight.

The UK 10-year gilt rate has reached a new two-month high of 5.0639%. This is an increase of 3.5 basis points. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Clarence Fernandez Gareth Jones, Alexander Smith, and Alexander Smith).

(source: Reuters)