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Oil prices drop on renewed US-Iran discussions, Wall Street gains

Wall Street indexes continued to rise, oil prices fell and the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven waned Tuesday after the United States indicated that 'new peace talks' with Iran may be imminent despite the 'blockade' on Iran's port. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that talks in Pakistan could resume within the next two weeks after they had broken down over the weekend. Pakistani and Iranian officials said that negotiations could resume, with the agenda covering Iran's nuclear activities and international sanctions as well as transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.63% to 48.522.30. The S&P 500 grew 1.11% at 6,962.85 while the Nasdaq Composite grew 1.84% at 23,611.10. Bob Savage is the head of BNY's markets macro strategy. He said that the shift from missiles to verbal attacks in the U.S.Iran conflict has left markets hopeful for the beginning of an end to the war. The S&P 500 has returned to its pre-war level thanks to gains in large?tech stocks. Europe's STOXX 600 recovered and rose 0.99% for the day. However, it remained below its close of?February 27th the day before U.S. & Israel began their strikes against Iran. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, warned that markets are "trading in hope, not in resolution." The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook. BlackRock, the $14 trillion asset manager, reported a first-quarter profit increase that drove its stock up by 3.5%. This helped to reverse some of its losses this year.

Citigroup beat first-quarter earnings estimates, and its stock rose by more than 3%. JPMorgan beat expectations as well, but its shares fell 0.6%.

Dollar DIPS The Dollar Index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, euro and other currencies, is now within striking distance from its levels in late February, having fallen 0.26% to 98.09 on Tuesday. Since the beginning of hostilities, the dollar's status as a safe haven has pushed the currency up. The dollar dropped to 97.978 in the morning session, the lowest since the first day of trading after the start of the war. The U.S. Labor Department's inflation data weighed on the dollar. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures final demand, showed a 0.5% increase last month. This was below the 1.1% rise forecast by economists.

OIL BACKS DOWN

Prices fell on expectations of a further dialogue to end the conflict, which outweighed worries about supply disruptions. Brent fell to $95.02 a barrel, down by 4.37% for the day. U.S. crude oil?lost 7.27% to trade at $91.88 per barrel. The benchmarks were trading at over $100 per barrel just one day before the U.S. started a blockade of Iran’s ports. This angered Tehran and added uncertainty to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. In the first week in April, a Bank of America survey of global funds managers showed that investors expected oil to 'priced' at $84 per barrel by the end the year.

INFLATION CONCERNS BUY TREASURY YIELDS U.S. Treasury Yields have drifted downwards, with the yield on the two-year bond down 2.6 basis points to 3.755%. The benchmark yield for the 10-year bond is 3.7 basis 'points' lower at 4.26%. The two-year Treasury yields are still nearly 40 basis points above their levels in late February, despite the fact that they usually move along with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors are now preparing for the possibility of major central banks reversing their course and moving towards a hike in interest rates this year. (Editing by Mark Potter, Jan Harvey and Mark Potter with additional reporting by Avinash and Niket P in Bengaluru; Rae Wee and Niket Nishant in Singapore)

(source: Reuters)