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Gold nears record high after Fed rate-cut bets. Tech shares lead Asia share rally
Tech shares rose on Thursday, driving Asia's stock indexes to new heights, while gold hovered at a record-high and the dollar sank after a weak U.S. Labour Market Report boosted bets that Federal Reserve rates would be cut. It was almost certain that the U.S. shutdown would prevent the release of vital monthly payrolls on Friday. However, overnight, the ADP private employment report revealed the unexpected loss of jobs in September. The prior month had also been revised downwards. Even without official labour data, traders priced in Fed rate cuts of a quarter point at each of two remaining policy meetings this year. Wall Street reached new record highs Wednesday as the promise of a more relaxed policy environment was cited. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index also rose by over 2%. The Nikkei gained more than 1% despite a stronger dollar and yen. Taiwan's tech heavy bourse, the Taiwan Stock Exchange, jumped by 1.8%. South Korea's KOSPI soared 2.8% following the signing of a partnership between chip giants Hynix and Samsung to supply OpenAI Data centres. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.6%. The STOXX Europe 50 futures point to a 0.5% increase. According to Kyle Rodda of Capital.com, the ADP report suggests that "the U.S. economic situation is so dire, it requires further policy support." As a result, markets discount a higher probability for rate cuts in December and October. He added that "after initial jitters the markets have shrugged off the U.S. Government shutdown, at least until now." Rodda stated that the shutdowns have historically had a minimal impact on the economy, but the delay in critical economic data may increase uncertainty regarding the future of U.S. monetary policies and thus raise volatility. As a result of deep partisan differences, Congress and the White House were unable to reach a funding agreement, which could lead to a long, bitter standoff. Fed easing bets, along with some shutdown anxiety, pushed gold overnight to a new all-time record of $3,895.09, and also supported U.S. Treasuries by sending yields dramatically lower. On Thursday, during Tokyo's trading hours, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level in two weeks at 3.531%. The last time gold changed hands was around $3,866. Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone, said: "As it is usually the case, new highs will likely beget more fresh highs. The momentum remains firmly with bulls and the fundamental argument for further upsides in PMs (precious Metals) is also a strong one." The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency's performance against six major counterparts, remained near the overnight low of 97.459, a one-week low. The index last stood at 97.731, unchanged from the closing level of Wednesday. After a three-day decline of 1.8%, the dollar was unchanged at 147.21yen. The euro slightly rose to $1.1734 while the sterling fell to $1.3470. The oil price rose as a result of the prospect of tougher sanctions against Russian crude. This was an attempt to end a losing streak that lasted three days and brought it down to its lowest level in 16 weeks. Brent crude futures rose 0.7%, to $65.78 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also gained 0.7%, to $62.20 per barrel.
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VEGOILS-Palm rises on stronger soyoil, positive export demand
The price of Malaysian palm oils futures increased for the second session in a row on Thursday. This was due to a stronger soyoil, and strong demand from export markets. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange for December delivery had gained 50 ringgit or 1.14% to 4,438 Ringgit ($1,055.91). David Ng, a proprietary trading at Kuala Lumpur's Iceberg X Sdn. Bhd., said that crude palm oil was higher due to overnight strength on the soybean oil markets. The recent strong export performances also lifted the market sentiment. He said that prices are supported above 4,400 Ringgit and there is resistance at 4,550 Ringgit. Exports of palm oil products from Malaysia rose between 7.3% to 9.6% in September, according to cargo surveyors. The Chicago Board of Trade reported a 0.28% increase in soyoil. The Dalian Commodity Exchange will be closed for holidays from October 1-8. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oil market, it tracks price changes of competing edible oils. The oil prices increased after three sessions of losses due to concerns about market oversupply. Also, the possibility of tighter sanctions against Russian crude gave some support. Palm oil is a better option as a biodiesel feedstock because crude oil futures are stronger. The palm ringgit's trade currency strengthened by 0.05% in relation to the dollar. This made the commodity slightly cheaper for buyers who hold foreign currencies. The statistics bureau reported that Indonesia exported 16,20 million tonnes of crude and refined Palm Oil between January and August, an increase of 13.56% compared to the same period in the previous year. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil could bounce between 4,429 and 4,457 ringgit a ton as it has broken through the resistance level of 4,401 ringgit. ($1 = 4.2030 ringgit)
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Darkness descends on the US job market
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Investors knew that the U.S. labor market was in need of support. But the miserable ADP Employment Report, released to the market at the same time as the shutdown of the federal government, is particularly alarming. ADP reported that payrolls fell by 32,000, compared to the economists' expectations of a rise of 50,000 for September. The 54,000 increase for August has been revised down to a slight decline. For the moment, traders are adopting a narrative that "bad news is a good news", and adding bets on quarter-point rates cuts at all of the remaining Federal Reserve policy meetings in this year. Wall Street was dominated by shares in the high-growth chip sector. This trend spread to Asia and boosted bourses across Asia from Tokyo to Taipei, Hong Kong to Seoul. European futures also point to a strong upward trend. In Tokyo, the yields on short-term Treasury bonds fell further and reached a new two-week low. The dollar was also pinned to a low of one week compared with a basket containing its main rivals. Gold has taken a well-deserved break after soaring to $3,900 overnight for the first ever time. However, it hasn't moved far from its previous price of around $3,866. Analysts say that the length of the U.S. government shutdown could be crucial. There are still a few weeks until the Fed's October 29 rate decision, so there is plenty of time to bring employment data and other data online. The deep partisan divides that led up to the shutdown could lead to a long-term battle and leave the Fed in a state of blindness. If nothing miraculous happens, the Labor Department will not release the crucial monthly payroll data on Friday. The weekly Thursday jobless claim figures will also be affected by the Labor Department's inactivity. The private Challenger data on layoffs later today will receive much more attention. Lorie Logan, the Dallas Fed's chief, is scheduled to appear. In Europe, ECB vice-president Luis De Guindos, along with other policymakers such as ECB board members Patrick Montagner and Gabriel Makhlouf, the head of Ireland's central bank, and Riksbank governor Erik Thedeen are scheduled to speak at various forums. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Swiss CPI for September - Euro-area unemployment rate (August) - US Challenger layoffs (September) No official data release due to US shutdown
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Gold nears all-time-high on Fed rate-cut betting, US shutdown
Gold prices were stable on Thursday and near their record highs from the previous day, thanks to expectations of more U.S. rate reductions and political uncertainty. Gold spot held steady at $3,866.05 an ounce as of 0357 GMT after reaching a record high of $3.895.09 per ounce on Wednesday. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery eased by 0.2% to $3.891.40. "Weak ADP data before the non-farm payrolls reports has revived Fed cut bets in order to weaken US dollar. The U.S. shutdown has also given gold a boost, according to City Index's senior analyst Matt Simpson. "Futures Market Positioning continues to show that large speculators, managers funds and hedge funds are chasing higher prices. Their net-long exposure is increasing but not at an extreme." The data showed that private payrolls in the United States fell by 32,000 positions in September, after an August decline of 3,000 jobs was revised downwards. After partisan disagreements prevented Congress from reaching an agreement on funding, the U.S. Government has closed down many of its operations. This could put thousands of federal jobs in danger. The shutdown may delay the release Friday of the non-farm payrolls report (NFP), which is closely watched. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has said that he's becoming more concerned with inflation and wants to be "careful". According to CME FedWatch, traders are pricing in an almost certain 25 basis point cut to the Fed’s key interest rate for this month. In an environment of low interest rates, gold, which is often used to store value in times of political or financial uncertainty, flourishes. The U.S. Supreme Court announced that it will hear arguments in early January regarding Trump's attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The price of palladium rose 1.7%, while platinum gained 0.1%, to $1,559, and silver fell 0.2%, to $47.22. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Janane Venkatraman, and Brijesh patel in Bengaluru)
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Japanese Utilities Join JERA as Operators of 112MW Offshore Wind Farm
JERA has transferred part of its ownership in the Ishikari Bay New Port Offshore Wind Farm Project in Hokkaido to a newly established investment vehicle formed by Hokkaido Electric Power and Tohoku Electric Power.Following the transfer, completed on September 30, 2025, the 112 MW project is now jointly operated by JERA, Green Power Investment Corporation (GPI), Hokkaido Electric, and Tohoku Electric.The wind farm, located at Ishikari Bay New Port, began commercial operations on January 1, 2024. It consists of 14 Siemens Gamesa 8 MW turbines and includes a 180 MWh battery storage system.Electricity generated is supplied to Hokkaido Electric Power Network under a 20-year agreement.The project has been operated by JERA and GPI since launch, working closely with local communities in Ishikari City and Otaru City.JERA said the addition of Hokkaido Electric and Tohoku Electric brings ‘expertise and strengths’ that will enhance long-term stability and efficiency.
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Gold nears record high after Fed rate-cut bets. Tech shares lead Asia share rally
Tech shares rose on Thursday, boosting Asia stock indexes, while gold hovered at a record-high and the dollar sank as a weak U.S. Labour Market Report boosted bets that Federal Reserve interest rates would be cut. It was almost certain that the U.S. shutdown would prevent the release of vital monthly payroll data on Friday. However, overnight, the ADP private employment report revealed the unexpected loss of jobs in September. The prior month had also been revised downwards. Even without official labour data, traders priced in quarter-point Fed rates cuts at both of the remaining two policy meetings for the year. Wall Street reached new record highs Wednesday as the promise of a more relaxed policy environment boosted Wall Street. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index also rose by over 2%. The Nikkei gained 0.5% in Japan, largely due to the gains made by chip sector stocks. Taiwan's tech heavy bourse rose 1.5% while South Korea's KOSPI soared 2.8% following the signing of partnerships between chip giants Hynix and Samsung to supply OpenAI Data Centres. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.5%. According to Kyle Rodda of Capital.com, the ADP report suggests that "the U.S. economic situation is so dire, it requires further policy support." As a result, markets discount a higher probability for rate cuts in December and October. He added that "after initial jitters the markets have shrugged off the U.S. Government shutdown, at least until now." Rodda stated that the shutdowns have historically had a minimal impact on the economy, but the delay in critical economic data may increase uncertainty regarding the future of U.S. monetary policies and thus raise volatility. As partisan differences prevented Congress and White House from coming to a funding agreement, the government shut down most of its operations Wednesday, setting up what could be an extended, bitter standoff. Fed easing bets, along with some shutdown anxiety, pushed gold overnight to a new all-time record of $3,895.09. This also supported U.S. Treasuries and sent yields sharply down. On Thursday, during Tokyo's trading hours, the yield on two-year Treasury bonds fell to its lowest level in two weeks at 3.531%. The last time gold changed hands was around $3,865. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency's performance against six major counterparts, remained near the overnight low of 97.459, reached one week ago. The last time it was at 97.672, it was slightly lower than Wednesday's closing price. After a three-day decline of 1.8%, the dollar was unchanged at 147.01yen. The euro increased slightly to $1.1738 and the sterling rose to $1.34835. The oil prices rose on the prospect of tighter sanctions against Russian crude. They were looking to end a losing streak of three days and reach 16-week-lows. Brent crude futures rose 0.2%, to $65.50 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also increased 0.2%, to $61.92 per barrel.
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Pertamina says there will be no disruptions in supply after the fire at its Dumai oil refinery.
A company official confirmed on Thursday that the Indonesian state energy company Pertamina will divert fuel from its Dumai refinery to some areas in Sumatra after a fire broke out at the facility. The official added that there had been no disruptions of supply. Agustiawan, a company spokesperson, said that the fire was put out late Wednesday night. He added that gasoil and other supplies were still safe for nearby Sumatra areas. The refinery is still able to supply jet fuel and gasoil for certain areas. Agustiawan stated that other Pertamina refining facilities will divert gasoil and fuel jet to areas where the Dumai refinery cannot supply. He said: "With the help of other refineries in Indonesia, we would like to assure you that there has been no disruption to the supply for the people." "Stocks and distribution of fuel are at a safe level." Pertamina reported that the Dumai refinery is Indonesia's third largest oil refinery, with a capacity of 170,000 barrels per day. The cause of the fire is not known. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Bernadette Cristina, Stanley Widianto.
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Oil recovers from 16-week lows amid prospects of tighter Russian oil sanctions
Oil prices rose Thursday, ending a three-day loss streak and recovering from 16-week-lows, on the prospect of tighter sanctions against Russian crude. However, expectations of a higher supply due to an OPEC+ production boost next month capped the gains. Brent crude futures rose 15 cents or 0.2% to $65.50 per barrel at 0116 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed by 14 Cents, or 0.2% to $61.92 per barrel. Brent and WTI lost about 1% on Wednesday. Brent closed at its lowest level since June 5, and WTI reached its lowest level since May 30. As WTI approached its $60 support, increased geopolitical risk and speculations about tighter sanctions against Russian crude also contributed to the increase in buying interest, said Hiroyuki Kikukawa. He is chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, an arm of Nissan Securities. The Group of Seven finance ministers announced on Wednesday that they would take measures to increase pressure against Russia, targeting those who continue to buy Russian oil at higher prices and those who facilitate circumvention. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the U.S. also will provide Ukraine intelligence to launch long-range missiles against Russian energy infrastructure. The WSJ reported that this will make it easier to strike refineries, pipelines, and other infrastructure in order to deprive the Kremlin revenue and oil. Nissan's Kikukawa noted that despite the U.S. shutdown, the world economy was still impacted by the uncertainty. Expectations of a higher production from OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies weighed heavily on the sentiment, limiting the gains in prices. The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump on Wednesday frozen $26 billion in funding for Democratic-leaning States, following up on its threat to use the shutdown to target Democratic priority. Three sources familiar with the discussions said that OPEC+ may agree to increase oil production in November by as much as 500,000 bpd, which is triple the October increase, because Saudi Arabia wants to reclaim its market share. This would happen even if the U.S. demand and Asian demand begins to fall. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventory rose last week due to a decline in refining and demand. The crude oil inventories increased by 1.8m barrels, to 416.5m barrels for the week ending September 26. A poll had predicted a rise of 1m barrels. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue; Yuka Obayashi)
After a 3-day losing streak, oil prices rise on fears of Russian sanctions
The oil prices increased on Thursday, after three sessions of losses due to concerns about market oversupply. Also, the possibility of tighter sanctions against Russian crude gave some support.
Brent crude futures rose 37 cents or 0.57% to $65.72 per barrel at 0401 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude climbed by 34 Cents, or 0.5%, to $62.12 per barrel.
Analysts attributed the increase to a technical recovery, after Brent lost about 1% and WTI lost about 1% the previous session. Brent closed at its lowest level since June 5, and WTI was the lowest it had been since May 30.
As WTI approached its $60 support, increased geopolitical risk and speculations about tighter sanctions against Russian crude also contributed to the increase in buying interest, said Hiroyuki Kikukawa. He is chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, an arm of Nissan Securities.
The Group of Seven finance ministers announced on Wednesday that they would increase the pressure on Russia, targeting those who continue to buy Russian oil at higher prices and those who facilitate circumvention.
Two officials confirmed a Wall Street Journal article on Wednesday that the U.S. would also provide Ukraine with information on long-range missile attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
The WSJ reported that this will make it easier to strike refineries, pipelines, and other infrastructure in order to deprive the Kremlin revenue and oil.
Stockpiling demand
Oil prices were also supported by China, which is the largest crude oil consumer in the world. This helped to limit the price decline, according to traders.
Nissan's Kikukawa noted that a U.S. shutdown stoked concerns about the global economy. Expectations of higher production by OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers - also weighed on the sentiment, limiting the price increases.
The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump on Wednesday frozen $26 billion in funding for Democratic-leaning States, following up on its threat to use a government shutdown to target Democratic priority.
Three sources familiar with the discussions said that on the supply side OPEC+ may agree to increase oil production in November by as much as 500,000 barrels a day, which would be triple the October increase. Saudi Arabia is seeking to regain market share.
This would happen even if the U.S. demand and Asian demand begins to fall.
Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventory rose last week due to a decline in refining and demand.
The crude oil inventories increased by 1.8m barrels, to 416.5m barrels for the week ending September 26. This was a much larger increase than expected in a poll which predicted a rise of 1 million barrels. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo, and Siyi Lu in Singapore. Editing by Tom Hogue & Jamie Freed.
(source: Reuters)