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Dollar falls, longer-dated US Treasuries increase as Trump's Fed battle fuels concerns

The dollar and longer-dated U.S. Treasury rates fell on Tuesday, as President Donald Trump’s decision to fire a Federal Reserve Governor fueled fears about the Fed’s independence. Wall Street stocks were relatively unchanged.

Trump announced on Monday that he had fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook due to allegations of improper mortgage borrowing. Cook stated that Trump does not have the authority to dismiss her as a central banker and that she will not resign. Her term was set to expire in 2038.

Trump's unprecedented move could result in a long-lasting legal battle, which risks setting new norms regarding the independence of a central bank and presidents' involvement in monetary policies. Cook's departure from the Fed may accelerate the president's plan to reshape the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates.

Trump has been pressing the Fed to lower interest rates in order to boost economic growth.

The expectation of a more dovish Fed pushed yields on shorter-dated bonds lower. A Fed with a political influence that maintains rates lower than would otherwise be the case could raise concerns about rising inflation, and decrease foreign demand for debt due to credibility fears. These factors will affect longer-dated bonds.

"President Trump has launched a potentially ineffective and risky battle against the Fed." In order to get a majority on the FOMC to follow Trump's line, it would require seven votes, not two or four," Brian Jacobsen wrote in an email.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This month, he fired an official at the Labor Department after accusing her without evidence of manipulating job data which had disappointed him. Trump has now backed off from this threat, as Powell's term is about to expire in May next year.

Inflation Report

Cook News reported that the dollar was down against major currencies, and that a global index of stocks had fallen, with losses in Europe led by France, as political unrest in the country increased. France's CAC40.FCHI dropped 1.5%, as it became more likely that the country's minor government would be overthrown next month.

Investors waited for Nvidia to release its NVDA.O earnings on Wednesday, and a major inflation report due later this week.

The market is focusing on the inflation rate, the labor force, consumer spending, and corporate earnings. Oliver Pursche is senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, a firm in Westport, Connecticut. He said that despite the pun, this "trumps all"

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 49.02 points or 0.11% to 45,233.45. The S&P 500 increased 1.25 points or 0.02% to 6,440.45. And the Nasdaq Composite rose by 37.51 points or 0.18% to 21,486.80.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 2.49 points or 0.26% to 950.47. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.69%.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.3%, while the euro rose by 0.34%, reaching $1.1657. The dollar fell 0.14% against the Japanese yen to 147.54.

The yield on the 2-year US2YT=RR note moves along with expectations of interest rates. The yield was down by 2.4 basis points for the day, to 3.706%. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes US10YT=RR increased 1.2 basis points, to 4.287%.

Investors eagerly await the U.S. consumer prices reading on Friday, which is considered to be the preferred inflation indicator by Fed.

Gold prices rose, but oil prices fell. U.S. crude dropped 1.13% to $64.07 per barrel. Brent was down to $68.08 a barrel, a drop of 1.05% for the day. Gold spot rose by 0.34%, to $3377.61 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)