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Oil outlook is boosted by geopolitical tensions, but concerns about demand persist
A poll on Monday showed that analysts have slightly raised their oil price predictions after the recent flare-up in tensions in the Middle East. However, rising OPEC+ supplies and a tempered outlook for demand continue to weigh down on crude. In a survey conducted by 40 economists and analysts, a June estimate of Brent crude at $67.86 per barrel in 2025 was higher than the $66.98 estimate made in May. U.S. crude, on the other hand, is forecast to average $64.51 per barrel, which is above last month's $63.35 estimate. According to LSEG, prices have averaged around $70.80 and $67.50 so far this season. Brent oil prices have been volatile this month due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as the U.S. decision of intervening. Brent reached $81.40 in the beginning before dropping to $67.14 at the end. Suvro Sarkar is the lead energy analyst for DBS Bank. He said: "We expect the region to remain on edge... leading some volatility in the oil prices over the coming days and week." Many analysts, however, saw the price spikes as temporary if there was no serious escalation of the conflict in the region. Cyrus De La Rubia is the chief economist of Hamburg Commercial Bank. He said that as long as Gulf oil production remains online, OPEC+'s rising output and ample inventories will limit crude prices. He added, "We expect the prices to return to fundamentals as long as the Iran-Israel conflict doesn't escalate." OPEC+ agreed in May to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels a day for the month of July. This brings the total of increases announced or made since April to 1,37 million bpd. Matthew Sherwood is the lead commodities analyst for EIU. He said that these increases have a significant effect on market sentiment. Sherwood said: "We expect OPEC+ will exercise caution when raising production and may even put plans on hold for an indefinite period of time at the first sign that prices could fall significantly." Analysts expect the global oil demand to increase by 730,000 bpd on average in 2025. This is a significant improvement from last month's poll, which predicted 775,000 bpd. The U.S.-China trade agreement has helped to ease demand concerns. However, the markets are still cautious about its impact. Tobias Keller is an analyst at UniCredit. He said that the US-China trade agreement may support oil demand modestly by improving sentiment on the market and by increasing trade flows. However, its impact will likely be limited, and it will depend largely on broader economic dynamics and supply dynamics.
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Congo gold miner claims M23 rebels forced staff to work for no pay
Twangiza Mining SA, a gold miner in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, has accused M23 rebels supported by Rwanda of forcing their employees to work without pay and against their will after seizing its mine. The M23 made a rapid advance in the eastern Congo earlier this year, gaining control of more territory than ever in North and South Kivu Provinces. Twangiza Mining is located in South Kivu Province. The company reported that it was ordered to stop operations in the mine by M23 after it accused the company of not paying tax. Twangiza Mining (a Chinese company with its headquarters in Congo) said in a statement on Friday that their workers are "held captive, forced to labor inhumane conditions without any security measures, remuneration, or medical coverage." Could not independently verify company's claims. M23 and the Congo government have not responded to any requests for comment. Twangiza Mining's statement also stated that production was "paralyzed", and the site had been "entirely seized" by a group Rwandans, who were working with M23, and claimed to be new investors. They exploited the mine for their own gain, treating employees "like slaves, deprived of any protection". Congo, the United Nations, and Western powers claim that Rwanda supports M23 by sending troops or arms. Rwanda has denied its involvement in M23 for many years, claiming that it was acting out of self-defence to defend itself against the Congolese army and ethnic Hutu armed militias linked to Rwanda's 1994 genocide. Yolande Makolo said that the Rwandan government spokeswoman, Yolande Makolo stated on Monday that Rwanda has nothing to do with Twangiza Mining's dispute. Makolo stated that "Rwanda was not involved in the situation and the accusations made against Rwandans were without foundation - there are no records or information about Rwandans involved in these activities." This is a local problem that should be brought up with the local authorities." The foreign ministers from Rwanda and Congo signed on Friday a peace agreement brokered by the United States, raising hope for a peaceful end to the fighting which has claimed thousands of lives and forced hundreds of thousands of others to flee their homes so far this year. The administration of U.S. president Donald Trump aims to attract Western investment worth billions of dollars to the Congo, which has tantalum, cobalt and copper deposits. Qatar is hosting talks between Congolese and M23. (Reporting and writing by Yassin Kmbi; Additional reporting by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Editing and Rob Corey-Boulet by Alex Richardson and Rob Corey Boulet)
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Analysis shows that US prices of China-made products on Amazon are rising faster than inflation as tariffs bite
According to an exclusive analysis by DataWeave of 1,400 products, the prices for goods sold on Amazon.com that are made in China have been increasing faster than inflation. This is a sign tariffs will start to affect American consumers. Analysis shows that prices for these goods increased in May. This is a sign that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are beginning to affect consumers. The median price for a basket of over 1,400 products manufactured in China that are sold by Amazon.com to U.S. consumers has increased by 2.6% from January until mid-June. This is higher than the U.S. inflation rates for core goods which only run through May. Prices for certain goods have declined. The core goods CPI, which excludes service, rose by 1% in the six-month period ending May. This is equivalent to a 2% rate annualized. The federal data as well as DataWeave’s study indicate that the cost of goods has been trending upwards in the past couple of months, with tariffs exerting pressure on prices. DataWeave examined more than 25,000 products, but focused on 1,407 items sold on Amazon that clearly listed China as the country. The firm used medians instead of averages because averages can be skewed due to short-term price spikes and unusually high or lower values. Amazon sells both its own products and those of third-party sellers in the basket of China-made items. Sixty-two percent of Amazon's products are sold by third-party sellers. School and office supplies are among the goods that have seen the most rapid growth. Other goods include blank media like CDs andDVDs, as well as home goods, such as furniture and cookware. China, which exported $438.9 Billion of goods to the U.S. last year, is a major global supplier of all these categories. DataWeave studied 1,407 products between January and June 17 and found that 475 items showed price increases. 633 remained the same, while 299 had price decreases. Hamilton Beach's electric kettle, for example, increased from $49.99 to $73.21, while the GreenPan fryingpan more than doubled in price to $31.99. Inflation in this product group was modest through April. In May, prices increased sharply and continued to do so into June. This was particularly true in the categories of Home & furniture and Electronics, where the median increases were 3.5% and 3.1% respectively. The study found that seasonal dynamics may play a part, but timing and rate indicate cost shocks are spreading through the retail supply chains, according to Karthik Bettadapura. Even modest duties can have a big impact when margins are tight and replenishment cycles fast. We're witnessing the first price increase on a broad scale in June, as sellers adjust to higher landed cost," Bettadapura explained. Amazon has said that it does not see any significant changes in the prices of its products outside of normal fluctuations. Amazon's spokesperson stated that "any comparison of a few products does not reflect the prices of hundreds of millions of other products on Amazon". Walmart, the biggest retailer in the United States, is among those who have warned about tariff-driven price increases. Macy's, a department store chain, said that it would raise prices selectively to offset tariffs. Nike, which has recently returned to Amazon after a 6-year hiatus, announced that it will raise the prices of various products beginning June 1. Trump has defended the tariffs, claiming they are necessary to rebalance trade globally and boost U.S. Manufacturing output. Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon, said that the company was "maniacally" focused on maintaining low prices. He said that the average selling price had not increased significantly. Due to the high interest rates and a weakened consumer sentiment in the United States, retailers have been cautious about passing on tariff costs. According to federal data, retail trade sales fell 0.9% from April in May, and consumer spending also dropped unexpectedly. Claudio Irigoyen is an economist with Bank of America Securities. He wrote in a recent article that "we think firms will likely choose to delay price increases." The U.S. currently has a 10% tariff on all products and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium. A 25% tariff is also in place on autos and auto parts. On June 23, additional steel tariffs went into effect, which could lead to "further pressure on price on cookware and kettles, as well as small kitchen appliances and other essentials for the home in the coming months", Bettadapura stated.
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Russell: Coal was Australia's top commodity exporter, but gold will soon be the king.
Iron ore has surpassed coal as the top commodity exported by Australia. This is due to the increase in shipments to China of steel raw materials. Gold is now threatening to surpass coal. According to the latest quarterly report of Australia's government commodity forecaster, earnings from precious metal exports are expected to increase to A$56 Billion ($36.6 Billion) in the fiscal period starting July 1. The Department of Industry, Science and Resources released data on Monday that showed this figure was higher than the A$39bn forecast for metallurgical and thermal coal. The combined export earnings of A$67billion for 2025-26 are still higher than those for gold. Here's where things get interesting. It's possible that by 2026-27, gold will surpass the combined total of metallurgical and thermal coal used for steel production. The government anticipates that gold exports will increase to 313 tons by 2026-2027, from 289 tons during 2025-26. It would be a major coup for Australia to become the world's largest net gold exporter and third-largest gold producer. The department is cautious about its gold price forecast, predicting that it will fall to $2.825 per ounce in 2026-27 from $3.200 in 2025-26. This is below the current spot rate of $3.273. Most analysts expect a price of $2.825 on average for 2026-2027, but the government forecaster has a history of being conservative. Gold could continue to rise 29% since Donald Trump was elected president of the United States for a second time in November. Trump has implemented a number of policies that have been deemed bullish by the precious metal. Tax and spending policies would increase the fiscal deficit of the federal government, placing pressure on U.S. Treasuries to be a store value. The sweeping tax cut and spending bill proposed is edging closer to being passed by the Republican-controlled Senate and House of Representatives, and if successfully signed into law it is estimated by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office that it would add $3.3 trillion to U.S. debt over a decade. Trump's tariff and trade policies are also uncertain, as his July 1 deadline for the United States to make deals with dozens major trading partners is looming. Even if Trump announces lower tariffs in April than he did, imports to the United States are likely to face higher taxes under Trump's second term than during his first term and when Joe Biden was president. The gold price is likely to rise as investors continue to look for alternatives to U.S. Treasuries, and other assets. Central banks and investors alike are expected to keep buying. Price Assumptions If we assume a gold price of $4,000 per ounce in 2026-2027, this would result in export revenues of A$61.6billion, based on the current Australian Dollar exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. The price forecasts may be overly optimistic, given the dynamics of the seaborne coal market. According to the government's forecast, metallurgical coke will average $201 per ton by 2026-2027. Thermal coal benchmark at Newcastle Port is expected to be $110 per ton. The Singapore Exchange closed its metallurgical coal contract at $178.50 per ton of coal on June 27. GlobalCOAL valued Newcastle thermal coal at $108,87 during the week ending June 27. Both prices are close to recent 4-year lows. The government expects the price of both types coal to rise slightly in the coming years. This would require that seaborne demand on major Asian markets like China, India and Japan, as well as South Korea, at least remain stable, if it does not improve. China and India are the world's two biggest coal importers and producers. They want to increase domestic production and reduce imports. This may restrict their seaborne imports. Japan and South Korea want to use cleaner fuels, such as liquefied gas. This may end up costing less than coal due to the flood of capacity that is expected to enter the market in 2027. It is possible that Australia will become the second largest commodity exporter in 2026/27 if gold continues its current upward trend and seaborne coal remains under pressure. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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When asked by the Kremlin about US sanctions, they suggest that it could impact Ukraine peace efforts, if implemented
The Kremlin announced on Monday that they had taken note and noted the comments made by U.S. Lindsey Graham, who is sponsoring tough new sanctions against Russia and its supporters should consider the impact of its efforts to reach a peaceful deal in Ukraine. Graham told ABC News in an interview on Sunday that Donald Trump had informed him that the bill, which would impose tariffs of 500% on countries such as China and India who buy Russian oil, should be put to a vote. Graham called Trump's "big breakthrough". He said it was part of the efforts to get Russian President Vladimir Putin at the table to negotiate on Ukraine, and to give Trump "a weapon" to do so. He said that Trump has a waiver, and he can decide whether to sign the bill into law when it is passed by Congress. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, said that when Graham's remarks were asked about on Monday, Russia had noted Graham's statement and was aware of Graham's position. "The senator's opinions are known to all of us. He is a member of a group that has a long history of anti-Russian sentiment. Peskov said that if it was up to him these sanctions would already have been in place. Would that have helped (the settlement) process (in Ukraine)? It is a good question to ask those who organize such events." Reporting by Dmitry Antonov, Writing by Andrew Osborn, Editing by Guy Faulconbridge
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The Russian rouble is flat against the US dollar, as the central bank announces further rate cuts
The Russian rouble was flat on Monday against the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Yuan as a senior official of the central bank announced that more interest rate reductions would be made at a July 25 meeting. According to LSEG, based on quotes over the counter, by 1140 GMT the rouble was trading at 78.50 US dollars. Since the beginning of the year, the Russian currency has gained 45% in value against the US dollar. Alexei Zabotkin, deputy governor of the central bank, said that the board could consider a rate cut of up to 1 percentage point if inflation data shows that it will slow down to 4% by 2026. Most analysts believe that the rouble's value is too high. Zabotkin said to reporters that the exchange rate of the rouble will continue on a path consistent with the inflation returning to 4%, the target set by the central bank in 2026. The current level is just below 10%. The rouble is expected to continue to fall as the central bank continues its rate-cutting. The rouble, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia, was flat against the Chinese Yuan at 10.92 per Chinese Yuan on Monday on the Moscow Stock Exchange. (Additional reporting from Elena Fabrichnaya, St. Petersburg; writing by Gleb Brianski; editing by Susan Fenton).
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At the Spain Summit, global leaders address poverty and climate goals
On Monday, a once-in-10-year summit began in Seville as world leaders are under increasing pressure to speed up progress on poverty reduction. Climate change The Sustainable Development Goals are at greater risk of failing. The U.N. Chief, Antonio Guterres said that the event was intended to "repair and rev up" an existing system of cooperation in which "trust is fraying, and multilateralism has been strained." The U.S. president Donald Trump was notably absent from the summit, which had been attended by more than 50 leaders of the world. This is because the leader of the largest economy in the world pulled out and refused to support a plan that has been hammered over the past year. Guterres said that the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, our global promise to change our world for a more just and better future, is in danger, during the opening session of the conference, while the region was sweltering under a heatwave. He said that the Sevilla Commitment is a global commitment to change the way the world supports developing countries, even though many wealthy nations are cutting back on development aid. Two-thirds (or more) of the Sustainable Development Goals are not being met. To make this happen, the financial system must be upgraded even faster. Guterres also said that the world development banks need to be reformated to increase their lending and attract private capital. This was tied to the need to reform credit rating systems around the world to make them fairer for developing countries, as they try to invest in projects which will help improve their risk ratings with time. Guterres stated that "Countries deserve a system which lowers borrowing rates, allows fair and timely restructuring of debt, and prevents the debt crisis in the first instance." He cited a plan for a single debt register to increase transparency and efforts to reduce the cost capital by debt swaps. (Reporting and editing by Bernadettebaum; Simon Jessop)
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Guinean ships haul in 48.6 millions tons of bauxite, as China's demand increases
Official data from showed that Guinea's exports bauxite - a feedstock used to make aluminium - soared by 39% in the first quarter, reaching a new record of 48.6 millions metric tons, even though regulatory crackdowns forced major operators out of business. The majority of this bauxite has been shipped to China where the aluminium industry is recovering. China produced 18,59 million tons of bauxite in the first five month of this year, an increase of 4.0% over the same period of last year. Guinea, which is the second largest bauxite exporter in the world, has shipped 312 vessels, compared with 225 ships that carried 34.9 million tonnes in Q1, 2024. This was according to Guinea's Ministry of Mines and Geology. The number of shipments from Guinea increased despite an export ban that was still in place on Emirates Global Aluminium’s local unit, which had shipped 3.6 millions tons in Q1,2024. The current weekly exports, which are 3.7 million tonnes, indicate an annualized rate that will be 199 million tones in 2025. This is up from the 146 million tons of last year. Sanchez said that this shows the resilience of the sector, despite the continued strong Chinese demand for the military-ruled West African country since 2016. Societe Miniere de Boke, a Chinese-controlled company, led the export boom in Q1, with 18.4 million tonnes, up 41% on Q1 2024's 13.1 million ton. AGB2A/SDM, a subsidiary of China's state-owned Chalco, increased its shipments from 3.8 to 5.1 millions tons by 35 percent. Data shows China's increasing control over Guinea's bauxite as Beijing ramps-up aluminum production. Guinea accounted for nearly 70% of China's bauxite imports in 2024. Guinea has upgraded its port infrastructure in order to meet the bauxite boom.
HEDGE FLOW - Goldman Sachs says that hedge funds are selling energy stocks when oil prices fall.
Goldman Sachs' note from Monday shows that hedge funds sold energy shares at the highest rate since September 2024, and the second fastest in the past 10 years. Oil prices were falling on the back of easing Middle East tensions.
Crude oil prices dropped over $10 following the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Iran. On Friday, oil prices shook on news of an increased supply of crude from the oil-producing group OPEC+. They remain below their recent high of $81.
Goldman's note stated that hedge funds began selling energy-related stocks in every major region on June 23.
Goldman's note sent to clients Friday said that the sales in the sector last week were the largest in nearly a year, and the second biggest in the past decade.
The sale of shares in oil, gas, and consumable oil firms as well as energy equipment manufacturers and service providers was conducted.
The note said that hedge fund sales were concentrated in every region, but especially North America and Europe. Goldman said that hedge funds in Europe increased their short positions while reducing long bets.
A short position anticipates that asset prices will fall, whereas a long position anticipates an increase.
The data showed that while many speculators increased their short positions against energy companies, the total combined position of speculators remained proportionally long on global energy shares.
Goldman Sachs said that hedge fund gross leverage - a measure of how many hedge funds are involved - is at its highest level in five years.
The bank added that hedge funds bought company shares in all global regions, and last week was the biggest stock-buying in five weeks.
It said that the most popular stock sectors were financial, technology and industrial companies. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie, Editing by Dhara Raasinghe and Joe Bavier
(source: Reuters)