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Weekly oil price rises as US sanctions against Iran and OPEC cutbacks

Weekly oil price rises as US sanctions against Iran and OPEC cutbacks

The oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, as the supply was expected to be tighter after Washington imposed new sanctions to curtail Iranian oil trade. Some OPEC producers also pledged to cut their output to compensate for pumping more than agreed quotas.

Brent crude futures increased 55 cents or 0.8% to $66.40 per barrel at 0321 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 66 cents or 1.1%, reaching $63.13 per barrel.

The benchmarks for both currencies settled at 2% higher levels on Wednesday, their highest since April 3. They are now on course to see their first weekly increase in three weeks. Thursday is the final settlement day for the week before Good Friday and the Easter holiday.

Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said: "I believe the rally is due to a few factors - shorts covering and the weaker USD, which makes crude cheaper to purchase. Also, U.S. sanctions against Iran."

He said that WTI may rise to $65 or $67 per barrel, but further gains could be difficult.

Sycamore stated that if we assume the U.S. GDP will be flat for the next two years and the Chinese GDP will slow to somewhere in the range of 3%-4%, this is not good news for crude oil.

The Trump administration issued new sanctions on Iran's oil trade on Wednesday. These included a "teapot oil refinery" in China. This is a way to increase pressure on Tehran as talks about the country's nuclear program escalate.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, (OPEC), said Wednesday that it received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries for further production cuts to compensate pumping over quotas.

Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo, said that "these factors" could have affected sentiment – would argue that Iranian output (is) not important and that OPEC quotas are more often violated than observed. But both factors contributed to the more bullish mood.

Big draws on U.S. gasoline and distillates stocks and a smaller-than-expected gain in weekly crude inventories also bolstered markets, he said.

McCarthy stated that the recent drop in refining may indicate a bottleneck in supply.

OPEC, International Energy Agency, and Goldman Sachs, as well as several banks including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, have all cut their forecasts for oil prices and growth in demand this week, despite the fact that U.S. Tariffs and retaliation by other countries has thrown global trade into chaos.

The World Trade Organization has said that it expects the trade of goods to decline by 0.2% in this year. This is down from its October expectation of a 3.0% increase. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue; Florence Tan, Reporting)

(source: Reuters)