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South Africa's central bank chief warns that the Middle East conflict clouds prospects for rate cuts

South Africa's Central Bank Governor said that it was difficult to see an easing of interest rates in the near future due to the volatile war in the Middle East, and its impact on the inflation rate.

Lesetja Kganyago, the South African Reserve Bank Governor, said that the bank will not update its growth or inflation forecasts in between meetings. Instead it relies on "scenarios," to understand the impact caused by the wildly fluctuating prices of commodities such as fuel and fertilizer.

Kganyago, in an interview at the International Monetary Fund's and World Bank Group spring meetings in Washington, said that the conflict would have a negative impact on growth and also increase inflation.

In an environment in which you expect inflation to rise, I do not think that anyone can continue to talk about a relaxation in monetary policies in such an environment," he continued. Last month, the bank maintained its policy rate of 6.75% citing the need to be cautious due to the impact that higher energy prices will have on inflation. The bank revised its risk scenarios before the meeting to assess the impact of the Middle East crisis. The negative scenario assumed that oil would average $94 per barrel for the entire year, and that exchange rates would depreciate by 20%.

"That was March. He said that we are now in a totally different environment. "We'll do new scenarios in may." The Middle East conflict and its?wild swings of commodity prices have largely halted the push for monetary easing among central banks in emerging markets.

He said that South Africa did not face fuel shortages, and it would be a while before its farmers could feel the impact of a fertilizer shortage.

Prices have changed in every direction...the only thing we know for sure is that there is uncertainty.

(source: Reuters)