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Australia's Weather Bureau Casts Doubt on La Nina Prospects

Australia's Weather Bureau Casts Doubt on La Nina Prospects

A senior climatologist at Australia's Weather Bureau isn't convinced that La Nina is forming, which could affect crop production and change rainfall patterns in parts of Asia, the Americas and Oceania.

La Nina and El Nino are both caused by a cooling or warming in ocean surface temperatures.

El Nino is the opposite. The former brings more rain to Australia's east, Southeast Asia, and India, with dryer weather in North America. Both can lead to flooding and hurricanes.

The models that forecast the weather patterns usually converge around this time of the year, but there are currently many variations.

She added, "That shows that there is still a great deal of uncertainty in our system."

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that La Nina conditions are present, but in a weak form, and will likely persist into December.

Models from the Australian Bureau show sea surface temperatures dipping below a La Nina threshold in October, December and November by 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.44 Fahrenheit). Then they move back to neutral.

Gamble said that the cooling effect on cloud patterns and trade wind directions is not enough to give confidence in a La Nina.

The senior climatologist stated that "our model is probably among the weaker predictions for La Nina."

She said that although NOAA considered atmospheric response sufficient, "we'd like more."

Gamble said that, except for a few islands in the southwest Pacific region, there were no signs of typical La Nina rainfall patterns.

We are not seeing the same impact because we don't see a dominant La Nina pattern. She said that when you have a weaker sign, other influences can start to take over and possibly override the signal.

Between 2020 and 2023, three consecutive La Nina events brought record rainfall to Australia and droughts and heatwaves to parts of the Americas.

(source: Reuters)