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MORNING BID AMERICAS - Oil's triple-digit troubles
By Mike Dolan March 9th - Mike Dolan is Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets. Oil shock and stagflation are often used as scare tactics in the financial markets. Both are very much at play now with the energy markets in chaos as the Middle East war enters its second?week with no end in sight. Crude oil prices rose above $100 a barrel on Monday, their highest level since the Ukraine invasion in 2004. If triple-digit oil price increases are not a temporary phenomenon, then the U.S. economy and the global economy may be in real trouble. Central bankers could also face their worst nightmare - stagflation. Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid today for more information on the impact of the oil price surge. Oil's triple-digit trouble is intensifying. The war in Iran has triggered an energy crisis. Fuel prices in the United States have risen well over $3 per gallon and are expected to continue rising. Donald Trump said on Twitter overnight that the rising price of oil was "a small price to be paid" in order to win the war. However, many voters may question this. This latest spike in inflation is a concern for investors and central banks, especially after the surprisingly low U.S. jobs report on Friday. Although the data was distorted by the bad weather of February, there were still few positives and signs that labor markets have stagnated. The dark prospect of "stagflation" - a combination of slow growth and rising prices - is now looming. It is still unclear how the Fed will react to this. They will probably just continue to do nothing, which is likely to disappoint almost everyone. Renewed inflation concerns have shaken global bond markets and intensified last week's sell-off, sending yields up - particularly in Britain where two-year gilt rates are on course for their largest one-day increase since 2022. Meanwhile, the stock markets around the globe tumbled, with Japan's Nikkei falling over 5%, and South Korea's KOSPI, which was soaring, dropping nearly 6%. This is on top of the losses of 5,5% and 10% respectively for these indexes last week. U.S. Stock Futures are down by more than 1% ahead of the bell, and the greenback is up as investors seek safety in dollar cash. Gold, the usual safe-haven, failed to deliver once again, as the dollar strengthened and Treasury yields climbed. The markets will be watching to see if the countries start tapping their oil reserves in order to stop the bleeding. Reports on Monday suggested that G7 finance minsters would discuss an emergency release of reserves. Chuck Schumer, the U.S. Senate Democratic Leader, has called on President Trump, who so far has not supported the move, to release oil from U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The crisis is escalating and it remains to be seen how far or for how long this will help. Gulf states continue to reduce their output amid threats against shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Tehran appears to be doubling-down as it names hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's next supreme leader. He is the son of Ali Khamenei. Chart of the day The spike in fuel prices following the U.S./Israeli war against Iran could be a headache for the Republican Party as it prepares to hold midterm elections in November. The Midwest and South have seen some of the highest increases, including swing states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Watch today's events * ?U.S. Bill auctions for 3-month and 6-month bills Want to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed here are the author's. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and integrity, independence and freedom from bias.
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TSX Futures fall as Middle East turmoil increases inflation concerns
Futures linked to Canada's major stock index fell on Monday, as rising oil prices were a result of escalating tensions between the Middle East and North Africa. This increased inflation fears among investors. As of 6:50 a.m., March futures for the?S&P/TSX Composite Index were?down 0.92%. ET. Wall Street futures also fell sharply after the Middle East conflict. Geopolitical tensions increased after Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as its supreme leader. He is the son of Ali Khamenei. This move was seen as proof that Tehran's hardliners are still firmly in control, especially with the conflict between the United States and Israel entering its 10th day. The market was gripped by fears of prolonged disruptions in shipping and major producers cut their supplies. Oil prices rose to levels last seen in mid-2022. Crude prices were down from their day-highs, however, following reports that G7 Finance Ministers will discuss the possibility of releasing emergency reserves. Traders also reported that Saudi Aramco had offered over 4 million barrels in a rare tender. Gold prices also suffered from a stronger dollar. Canada's benchmark index of equity companies led by mining and energy giants has fallen from its record highs reached?last week and has lost almost 3.7% in the first three months of?March due to?worries about higher oil prices adding to inflation pressures. The monetary policy outlook will be influenced by the U.S. inflation readings, and Canadian job data due later this week. Brokerage J.P.Morgan has downgraded First Quantum Minerals from "overweight" to "underweight", and Lundin Mining Corp from "neutral" to "underweight". CLICK 'ON CODES' TO GET CANADIAN MARKETS UPDATES Market report for TSX. Canadian Dollar and Bond Report CAD/CA/ Global Stocks Poll for Canada EQUITYPOLL1, EPOLL/CA Canadian Markets Directory CANADA (Reporting and editing by Ditta Pujara in Bengaluru, with Rashika Singh reporting from Bengaluru)
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South Korea to invest in US nuclear power project
Kim Jung-kwan, South Korea's Industry Minister, said that Seoul was 'in talks' to invest in a nuclear project in the United States. This is part of Seoul’s pledge of investing $350 billion into U.S.-based projects. Seoul is scrambling to review its deals with Washington, after U.S. president Donald 'Trump' threatened to increase tariffs on goods imported to South?Korea by 25%. He blamed a delay of the Asian ally in implementing a trade agreement agreed last year. Kim responded to a question from a member of the parliamentary committee about Korea's potential investments in U.S. nucleopower plants by saying, "We are in serious discussions regarding nuclear power." The Minister did not elaborate further on the details of the discussions. The U.S. Government signed a partnership last year with Westinghouse to build nuclear reactors worth at least $80 billion. This is one of the most ambitious plans for atomic energy development in recent years. Sources told us last week that Japan and the United States are also working on including a nuclear project in the second round of deals under Japan's $550 billion investment package. (Reporting and Additional Reporting by Heekyong Yay; Editing by Jan Harvey and Aidan Lewis).
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The Middle East conflict and the rise in oil prices have prompted governments to take action.
Share markets fell on concerns that the escalating U.S. - Israeli war 'on Iran would squeeze energy supplies around the globe and hamstring industry. Here are some?actions governments are taking or plan to take in order to lessen the?impact on their economies of war. SOUTH KOREAN PLANS FUEL CAPITAL South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced on Monday that the government would cap domestic fuel costs for the first time since nearly 30 years. He said that the country would also seek other sources of energy than those shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. A 100 trillion won ($67 billion), market stabilisation programme, should be expanded, if necessary. JAPAN TELLS SITE OF NATIONAL OIL RESOURCE TO?PREPARATE FOR RELEASE? The Japanese government told a site of a national oil storage reserve to prepare for the release of crude. Nagatsuma stated that details such as the release date are unclear. VIETNAM TO REMOVE FUELS IMPORT TARIFFS Vietnam plans to remove import tariffs for fuels in order to maintain supplies during disruptions. INDONESIA WILL INCREASE FUEL SUBSIDIES Indonesia's finance minister announced on Monday that the country will increase its allocation for fuel subsidies within its state budget. The budget for the country is 381.3 trillion rupiah (about $22.5 billion). This money will be used to provide energy subsidies, and compensate Pertamina as well as utility company PLN to maintain fuel and electricity prices at a reasonable level. Indonesia, which is the world's biggest palm oil producer, could revive plans to launch B50, a blend consisting of 50% palm-oil-based biodiesel with 50% conventional diesel. CHINA ASKS REFINERS TO SUBDUCE FUEL EXPORTS China asked refiners last week to stop signing new contracts for fuel exports and to try to cancel any?shipments that have already been committed. They said that the guidance did not apply to international jet fuel refuelling, bunkering bonded or supplies to Hong Kong and Macau. BANGLADESH CLOSES?UNIVERSITIES AND RATIONS FUEL Bangladesh is closing all?universities as of Monday to save electricity and fuel. Bangladesh, which depends on imported energy for 95%, set daily limits on fuel sale on Friday after panic-buying and stockpiling. (Compiled by Edwina gibbs, edited by Lincoln Feast and Shri Navaratnam).
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China increases retail fuel prices by the most in four years, amid Iran War
China raised retail prices of 'gasoline and Diesel on Monday in the biggest increase since March 2022, after a spike in international oil prices due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. According to a?notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, the retail price cap for gasoline and diesel in the second largest oil consumer of the world will increase by 695 Yuan ($100.46), and 670 Yuan ($96.84), respectively, starting Tuesday. The previous adjustment was made on 24 February. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, had risen by 27% and West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI futures) were up 35.6% in the last week. China asked refiners last week to halt fuel exports, and cancel any shipments already committed due to the Iran war. China's state planner reviews gasoline and diesel retail prices every 10 days and makes uniform adjustments throughout the country, although benchmark prices may vary by region. The adjustment rate reflects changes in crude oil prices internationally while also taking average processing costs into consideration, as well as taxes, distribution expenses, and appropriate profit margins. China allows gasoline and diesel retail?prices to float freely from floor to ceiling. Retail fuel prices are not generally raised when crude oil reaches $130 per barrel. Retail fuel prices are calculated according to price adjustment mechanisms when crude prices drop to $40 or less per barrel.
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Pakistan Cenbank maintains rate at 10% as oil prices cloud inflation outlook
Pakistan's Central Bank kept its 'key policy rate' at 10.5%, pausing the easing cycle due to a resurgence in global energy prices and regional tensions. The State Bank of Pakistan's website announced that the Monetary Policy Committee had decided to maintain the policy rate at 10.5 percent. A detailed statement will be released shortly. SBP cut the key rate cumulatively by 1,150 basis points from a record high of 22% in mid-2024. The escalating tensions in the Middle East are causing?concerns over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major artery for oil supplies worldwide, driving energy prices up. Pakistan imports the majority of its energy, so domestic inflation is sensitive to global fuel prices. It raised the prices of diesel and petrol by about 20% on Friday. The higher prices were attributed to the conflict in Iran. Jameel Ahmad, the Governor of the Central Bank, has previously stated that "the economy can grow between 3.75% and 4.5% in FY26 due to stronger domestic demand, earlier monetary easing, and inflation could temporarily exceed 5%-7% this year, before it eases. Pakistan is part of an ongoing $7 billion IMF program. The Fund urges policymakers to keep monetary policies tight and data-dependent in order to anchor inflation expectations, and strengthen external buffers. Reporting by Ariba in Karachi, Editing by YPrajesh
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UK is talking with partners about how to limit the economic impact of the Iran crisis, according to PM
British Prime Minister Keir 'Starmer'?said Monday that his government was talking with international partners about how to reduce the economic impact of the Iranian crisis. The conflict in the Middle East poses a greater risk to Britain than to many other European nations, so Starmer is under pressure to try and reassure British businesses and consumers. Starmer, at an event in London said that "the job of government is to get ahead and look around the corner. To work with others." The government, she added, was also "talking with our international partners, about what more we can all do to reduce the impact on the people here." Investors have reduced their bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this year, since the start of the Iran war last week. Starmer stated that it was important to acknowledge the need to work to 'limit the economic impact of war', given Monday's surge in oil prices. He said: "People, and you, will feel, that the longer this continues, the greater the likelihood of an economic impact." (Reporting and writing by Sam Tabahriti; editing by Kate Holton, Michael Holden and Sarah Young)
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Guinea dissolves 40 political parties, opposition leader cries foul
Guinea's main opposition leader said "direct resistance" to the ?country's coup leader-turned-president was now the only ?way to bring about change after the government consolidated its ?position by dissolving 40 political ?parties. Mamady Doumbouya is a former special forces commander who seized power from his rivals in December 2021. In the West African country, rich in bauxite ore and iron, legislative elections are scheduled for May. The Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization in Guinea announced late Friday night that the headquarters and local offices of 40 political parties would be closed and that use of their logos, acronyms and "other distinctive signs" was prohibited. The decree stated that the parties failed to comply with?legal requirements such as filing financial reports; however, several of the political?parties dissolved have protested and maintained?that they had met all legal requirements. Cellou Dalein Diallo, Guinea's principal opposition leader, said in a video posted on social media Sunday that "war had been declared openly" against Doumbouya’s opponents. He called for Guineans "direct resistance" without specifying how that would look. He said that political change could not be achieved through democratic or dialogue processes. He said that the head of the junta, and his "malevolent" clique, wanted to rewrite history in the country by erasing all forces from the political landscape which could threaten his new one-party system. The government spokesperson didn't respond to our request for comment. Diallo, like former President Alpha Conde (whom Doumbouya overthrew and whose party dissolved last Friday), is exiled outside of the country. Guinea has had a long history of political violence, which included the disputed 2020 election that Diallo claimed to have won. The December 2025 elections were tightly controlled, and there were no major security incidents. Reporting by Guinea Newsroom; Writing and editing by PhilippaFletcher.
India and Bangladesh brace for several years's very first cyclone
Bangladesh and India braced on Sunday for cyclone Remal, the first of the year, as the storm with wind speeds of approximately 120 kmh (75 mph) is set to make landfall overnight, India's weather condition department said.
The Bangladesh weather workplace raised its storm threat signal to 10, the greatest level, for 2 ports and nine coastal districts, revealing cautions over loudspeakers and starting to evacuate individuals from seaside areas.
Nearly 60,000 individuals have actually been relocated to shelters considering that early morning, Mijanur Rahman, chief of Bangladesh's catastrophe management team, informed .
The low-lying coasts of Bangladesh and India, two South Asian neighbours, have experienced frequent extreme storms in current years. Cyclone Yaas in 2021 for example left more than 50,000 people homeless and eliminated at least one.
Bangladesh has actually set up nearly 8,000 cyclone shelters and mobilised 78,000 volunteers, the state minister for disaster management and relief Mohibbur Rahman told .
India has released its catastrophe relief force in the eastern state of West Bengal. Flights have actually been suspended at the major metropolitan city of Kolkata.
Parts of West Bengal have begun experiencing bouts of moderate rains, and the government has cancelled leave for staff members in essential services, a civic body authorities stated.
The Indian navy likewise said it had actually kept ships, airplane, divers and medical supplies on standby for deployment if needed.
The landfall of cyclone Remal will take place in between 11 PM and 1 AM, Somnath Dutta, head of the weather report section in regional meteorological centre in Kolkata, told .
Images on social media platform X revealed the disaster management group notifying tourists at a beach in West Bengal.
A number of trains travelling through areas that fall in the ambit of the cyclonic storm were likewise cancelled, another official said.
(source: Reuters)