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New Zealand's contingency fuel plan is phased, but there are no immediate curbs needed.
New Zealand announced on Friday a four-phased strategy to manage the rising risks to petrol, jet fuel and diesel supplies. However, it said that no restrictions were needed at this time as the government was well-positioned to respond to potential energy shocks. Nicola Willis, Finance Minister of Canada, said that the country is in the first phase. This phase focuses on global developments and promoting voluntary fuel reductions. Willis said at a press briefing that there was no cause for immediate alarm. Companies have good confidence in fuel deliveries through the end of this month. She warned that the country should be prepared for disruptions in the event of a prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by tankers and a drop in refinery production. New Zealand is a country that is highly vulnerable to global supply disruptions. It imports nearly all its refined fuel. As of Sunday, New Zealand had 49 days worth of petrol, 46 of diesel, and 53 of jet fuel. This includes shipments on their way. The ministerial group overseeing the project will make any decisions regarding a change in phases, based on six criteria. These include changes to fuel stock levels as well as potential restrictions on exports from?refineries supplying New Zealand. In later stages, the plan could include stronger measures, such as prioritising fuel for emergency service, freight, food supply chains, and other key industries. Some employers may be encouraged to encourage employees to work from home. But?there's one place where we draw the line. We don't want children to be forced out of the classroom, as happened during COVID. Willis stated that we do not want children to be forced to learn at home. The government announced this week that it would temporarily allow the import of fuels?meeting Australian Standards for up to 12 months. This move was made in an effort to ease supply risks related to the Middle East Conflict.
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Oil prices drop as Trump stops attacks on Iranian energy facilities
Oil prices dropped in the early morning trade of Friday, and have been down for a volatile week after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran on ending the war are going "very well", and that he will pause his attacks on Iran's energy facilities for 10 days. Brent futures dropped 90 cents or 0.8% to $107.11 per barrel as of 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures also fell 83 cents or 0.88% to $93.65 a barrel, reducing gains from a previous bullish session. Brent gained 5.7% on Thursday while WTI gained 4% on fears of a further escalation in the war. However, the trading volume of the Brent front-month contract was at its lowest since February 27, one day before Israel and the United States began their strikes against Iran. WTI is down for the second week in a row, while Brent is heading 'for its first weekly drop in six weeks, and Trump has talked up 'the prospect of ending war. "As per Iranian government request... "I am pausing the destruction of Energy Plants by 10 days...to Monday, 6 April 2026 at 8 PM Eastern Time," Trump wrote in a Thursday post on Truth Social. A senior Iranian official told a reporter that the 15-point U.S. plan, which was sent to Tehran by Pakistan on Tuesday, had been reviewed in depth by senior Iranian officials, including the supreme leader of Iran. The official described the plan as "unfair and one-sided". On Thursday, the U.S. President said that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz in a gesture of goodwill during negotiations. He said that they were Pakistani-flagged ships. The U.S. also sent thousands to the Middle East. Trump is weighing the use of ground forces in order to take over Iran's strategic oil hub, Kharg Island. The Strait of Hormuz has been virtually closed to shipments, and Fatih Bilo, the chief of the International Energy Agency, described the crisis as "worse" than both the oil shocks in the 1970s as well as all the gas from the Russia-Ukraine conflict put together. The war against Iran has slashed 11 million barrels per day of global oil supply. For today, markets do not expect a major impact, especially in the oil market. If you look at the curve in the future, it appears that the markets are assuming a quick end to the crisis and a rapid stabilisation of the situation.
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US troops would be at risk if they took Kharg Island. Drones, mines and other dangers
Donald Trump is weighing up whether to use ground troops to take Iran's strategic oil center of?Kharg Island. Analysts say that this operation could be accomplished quickly but would leave the?U.S. The war will be prolonged and troops put in danger. Where is Kharg Island and why? Kharg Island is located 16 miles (26 kms) off the coast of Iran in the northern end of the Gulf. It's about 483 kilometers (483 miles) north of the Strait of Hormuz. The island is located in water that is deep enough for tankers to dock, even if they are too big to reach the shallow waters of the Iranian coast. Seizing the island would allow the United States to disrupt Iran's energy industry and put enormous pressure on Tehran. Iran is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' third-largest oil producer. What is the current state of play? U.S. forces conducted strikes against Kharg mid-March. Trump said that they had "totally destroyed" all military targets in Kharg and suggested they would target the oil infrastructure next. Officials from the United States have informed the administration that they are weighing up whether or not to "send ground forces" to the island. Sources say that the Pentagon plans to send thousands of airborne troops to the region by the end of this month to give Trump more options in case he decides to launch a ground attack. DRONES AND MINES The U.S. could seize the island relatively quickly. However, this would not necessarily mean that Trump's war is over in a hurry, especially given how unpopular it is at home, ahead of the midterm elections. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Ryan Brobst, and Cameron McMillan wrote that a seizure or occupation of Kharg Island would be more likely to escalate and prolong the war rather than to bring about a decisive victory. The U.S. military would be subjected to missile and drone attacks. This could include small but deadly "first-person-view drones", which are already being used by millions of Ukrainians. They said that if the Iranian regime were to launch successful attacks, they would release online videos showing the deaths of American soldiers as propaganda. Analysts say that Trump also hopes to gain leverage by gaining control of 'Kharg Island', which would force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran may choose to deploy more mines, including?floating?mines, to disrupt shipping in the area, as the conflict has already caused significant disruptions. TROOPS NEED BACKUP Joseph Votel, former commander of U.S. Central Command told TWZ.com that although only 800 to '1,000 troops would be required on Kharg Island but that they would also need logistical support and protection. Votel stated that the troops will be vulnerable and he doubted if capturing the island will provide any tactical advantage. It would seem "a bit odd" to do so. Votel added that they could do it, if necessary. (Reporting and editing by Andy Sullivan, Sonali Paul and Andy Sullivan; reporting by David Brunnstrom and Idrees Al and Phil Stewart)
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Oil shock, war, and uncertainty: McGeever: Time to increase US equity outlook
It might seem odd to be more bullish about stocks at a time when the U.S. economy is masked by a fog of war, and oil costs $100 per barrel. From a valuation perspective, the case is compelling. Barclays strategists outlined this?this past week, when they increased their S&P500 price?and earning forecasts. They are not the only bulls. They argue that corporate America won't be able to escape the economic impact of the Iran war or energy shock. However, it is still in a relatively good position. Take technology, the engine that has driven Wall Street's recent boom. Recent concerns that firms overspend on artificial intelligence have caused the market to sputter. Concerns about AI disruption has also roiled software company shares. The "Big Tech' selloff was pretty large. Roundhill's "Magnificent 7" ETF is down by 10%, which is three times more than the S&P 500. The tech sector, measured by the 12-month forward price/earnings rate, is now cheaper than it was during the 'Liberation Day' turmoil of a year earlier. This multiple hovers around 21, which is the lowest it has been in three years, and down by a third since last October. This is a remarkable turnaround of a key sector in a short period of time. The valuation premium that technology enjoyed in the past over the stock market is almost gone and now the smallest it has been in seven years. According to Jefferies equity strategists, a narrower measure of this premium - "Mag Six" over the S&P 500 – is the smallest it has been since 2008-09. The Re-Rating Game It is reasonable to argue that a "sweeping reset" was long overdue, as tech stocks had become far too costly. The current valuations are simply returning to their long-term mean. It's not just that tech is cheaper, but it looks cheap compared to the earnings forecasts of these companies. The LSEG's latest consensus estimate of tech earnings growth for calendar year 2026 stands at 42.5%. This is up from 30.8% in January and almost double the previous six-month estimate. Barclays strategists said this week that they believe the U.S. will continue to grow faster than other major economies, and technology is a growth engine with a long-term outlook. The S&P 500's earnings per share for this year were raised to $321, up from $305. They also increased the price target of the index to 7650, up from 7400. This would mean gains of about 16% since Wednesday's closing. They added, "We are incrementally optimistic about U.S. stocks. However, the road is likely to remain bumpy until we turn a corner." OVERWEIGHT AND SEE It's notable that U.S. consensus earnings estimates have been steadily rising over the past two months, while the S&P 500 continues to fall. Does this indicate an unjustifiably positive outlook for U.S. corporations, or a market overreacting to the external environment? It looks as if it might be the former. Wall Street has performed better than its global peers since the Middle East war broke out four weeks ago. This is partly because of the relative strength in the U.S. for growth, technology, earnings and energy. This situation is unlikely to drastically change in the near future. In their outlook for the second quarter, HSBC Private bank analysts stated that they remain "overweight on U.S. equities" due to a "resilient growth," solid corporate earnings, and continued innovation." The fear of rising U.S. inflation - which is currently at 3% and climbing - shouldn't be a deterrent for America Inc., as higher prices should increase nominal earnings in particular in sectors that have strong pricing power. Holding an over-weight position in any equity market at this time is risky, but Wall Street may be the safest place to do so. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Raychaudhuri: The South Korean stock market is cheaper because of the war in Iran, not weaker.
South Korea's stock market has become Asia's most volatile due to the Iran war. Fears of massive value destruction are probably unfounded, but the panic is real. The benchmark KOSPI index dropped over 18% in the two days following the start of the conflict on February 28. This was its worst ever daily drop. The next day, it recovered almost 10%. The market has been struggling with volatility for more than three weeks. The 'KOSPI' is partly to blame for its own success. It had risen sharply in the year before the conflict began, and was up more than 100 percent over the previous year. Investors faced with uncertainty and the need for cash often sold their investments. It is not surprising that the most liquid Korean shares in technology, chemicals, industrials and consumer discretionary stocks were the hardest hit. Conflict also weakened the outlook of some Korean companies, particularly after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway was once used by roughly 20% of world energy to travel. Korea International Trade Association shows that 70% of the crude oil and 30% of the gas Korea will receive in 2025 from the Middle East transited through the Strait. According to the International Energy Agency, Korea's energy mix is heavily skewed towards fossil fuels. 37% of its oil, 22% of coal, and 20% of natural gas are derived from Middle East. On Tuesday, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung?called on a nationwide campaign to save energy. He asked the top 50 oil-consuming companies to reduce their use. It is difficult to ignore the broad risk. A prolonged disruption in energy would increase the cost of inputs, fuel inflation, and squeeze margins for corporations. Since the start of the war, the Korean won has weakened sharply, adding to the pressure. This could trigger capital outflows. Even with all the risks, some of the strengths that propelled Korean stocks before the war are still intact and may reappear in the minds of investors once the conflict is over. Earnings boom endures The outlook for earnings of Korean stocks remains positive despite wartime concerns. Korea's consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate has risen the most among the major Asian markets in the past year. These have risen despite the Middle East conflict. This shows that analysts are still bullish about the main drivers for profit growth despite concerns over energy shortages. The majority of upgrades have been driven by the technology sector, primarily semiconductors. This is because the artificial intelligence revolution has not slowed down. Utility companies, energy and financial sectors have all made significant contributions, as well as?defence-exporters. The geopolitical conflicts should continue to be a support for the latter. It is even more striking that, after a 40% rise in Korean stocks since late October, KOSPI's price-to earnings (P/E), based on FactSet estimates, has declined by 28%. The forecasts for earnings-per-share have increased by 80% while the share price has lagged. This results in a market which looks cheaper based on future earnings, even after a good run. This dispels the myth that Korean stocks have become more costly since last year's rally. They haven't. UNPACKING MISTAKES A second myth about Korean stocks that is often heard is that the market has become "crowded." Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and other major players in the global market for memory did seem overbought up until the recent market selloff. However, the broader stock market tells a very different story. From November to March 25, foreign investors sold $36 billion in Korean stocks, with the sales starting long before the conflict. Since January 2020, foreigners sold $48 billion worth of Korean stocks, leaving them with a negative net asset value. Thirdly, a third misconception is that investing in Korea means betting on the giant semiconductor companies. Even though AI infrastructure hardware remains the clear leader, Korean prowess has also been well established in defence, shipbuilding and heavy engineering as well as automobiles, cosmetics retail, ecommerce, entertainment, and base metals. FactSet consensus predicts that most of these sectors will grow their earnings by over 20% in the next two-year period. In many cases they are also attractively priced, with P/E multipliers that are significantly lower than the forecasted?earnings increase. One caveat is in order. If war-related disruptions continue, energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals and heavy engineering could see their earnings decline. GOVERNANCE & VOLATILITY The strong performance of Korea's equity market over the last year was also boosted by the corporate governance reforms, notably Seoul's Value Up programme, which aims to?boost shareholders rights. The government will need to reduce retail speculation to bring down volatility. While the progress made on this front is positive, it may be necessary to curtail corporate governance reform. Retail traders make up about a third of the daily turnover at Korea Exchange and use derivatives that are leveraged, which magnifies swings both ways. Regulators are taking steps to curb speculative trading and controversial practices such as illegal short-selling. The recent rise in technology stocks where leveraged positions were the most intense, however, indicates that more needs to be done. The war's course is uncertain. A prolonged energy shock may have a negative impact on Korea's economy. When 'zooming in' on Korean equities current fundamentals, and foreign ownership's low exposure, there are plenty of reasons to believe that the war could be just a pause in Korea rally. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Trump announces a pause in the attacks on Iran's nuclear energy plants
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he would pause attacks on Iran's energy plants for 10 more days, at the request of the Iranian government. He also said that talks with Tehran are going "very smoothly." "As per Iranian government request... "I am pausing the period for Energy Plant destruction by 10 days to Monday, April 6th, 2026 at 8 PM Eastern Time," Trump stated in a Truth Social post. He said that "talks are ongoing, and, despite false statements made by Fake News Media and others, they're going very well." "I gave them a 10-day period." Trump told Fox News "The Five" that they asked for seven days. Trump told Fox News that he believes the U.S. won the Iran War. Trump has offered a variety of goals and timelines for the Iran War, from overthrowing Iran’s government to destroying Iran’s military and missile capability. Trump said, "In a sense, we've already won." Trump said Iran had to make a "deal" or face a continuing onslaught. The U.S., Israel and other countries attacked Iran on February 28, 2008. Tehran responded with its own 'attacks' on Israel and Gulf States that had U.S. base. The joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on?Iran, as well as Israeli attacks in Lebanon 'have killed thousands. The war has also risen oil prices and shook global markets. Reporting by Bhargav Asharya, Kanishka Sing and Jasper Ward. Editing by David Ljunggren & Bill Berkrot
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Mexican Navy says that a petroleum tanker and natural seabed are likely to be responsible for Gulf Coast spill
Mexican officials confirmed on Thursday that an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is due to both natural 'causes' and a petroleum 'tanker, which authorities are attempting to identify. Raymundo Morales is the Mexican navy's head. He said that satellite images showed an oil slick near the coast and that any of the 13 vessels which had passed by the area may have been responsible. Morales stated that four of the vessels were still in Mexican waters, and being inspected by the Navy. Mexico has asked for international assistance to inspect the nine remaining vessels, which are now in international water. Morales also added that two spots where natural sub-marine oil seepage has contributed to the petroleum products washing up on Mexican beaches. Morales believes that the leakage from the seabed, which is a major contributor to 'the submarine leak,' is continuing and continues. The seepage at the other location has been intermittent, but is now contained. Morales stated that "we need to assess the situation, whether natural seepage is increasing or if a structural problem has occurred on one of the platforms." Morales stated that the authorities, in coordination with Mexico’s state energy company Pemex are installing marine barriers to stop the spill from causing further damage to wildlife and beaches. Morales stated that Pemex also conducts underwater checks to rule out structural failures of oil rigs. The spill has affected marine wildlife and?stained the beaches in southern states Tabasco and?Tamaulipas. However, environment minister Alicia Barcena stated at the press event that the damage was not "severe." This issue was published?around the time of a March 17 incident in which five people died outside Mexico’s Olmeca refinery when "oily water" surrounding the perimeter caught on fire. Reporting by Raul and Adriana Barera, Writing by Natalia Siniawski, Inigo Alexander and Daina Beth Sool, Editing By Daina Beth Solon)
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Data centers forced to become more flexible by the US grid
In times of high demand for electricity, the U.S. tech industry is being pressured to reduce its power consumption. This comes amid growing public concerns that Big Tech's massive energy needs in expanding data centers will'max out' the country's electrical grid. When utilities and grid operators ask for it, the power industry and its regulators are increasingly pushing tech companies to make a concession that was previously unthinkable - they're asking them to?scale?back their energy consumption in giant server farms called data centers. The majority of the attempts to make data centres more flexible are in pilot mode. Data centers are under enormous financial pressure to remain on 24 hours a day. The process is complicated and there are many incentives. Heunets, an IT consultant, estimates that when data centers go down it costs technology companies around $9,000 per minute. The goal is to prevent blackouts, and high power bills during peak demand times of the year. Silicon Valley may benefit from increased flexibility to avoid potential crises. This could allow tech companies to win agreements faster for connecting their new data centres. According to a study conducted by EPRI, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the electricity consumption of data centers will more than quadruple in the next decade, consuming as much as 17% U.S. energy supplies. Chris Wright, U.S. energy secretary, said this week at the CERAWeek Conference in Houston that it is not the electrons on a grid but the ability to meet demand at peaks. When electricity demand is high, the supply must match demand or people will die. During a winter storm, the Department of Energy instructed data centers on the largest regional grid in the United States - PJM interconnection - that they should run their backup generators so as to release power from the grid. PJM, the largest data center market in world, projects supply shortages by next year if the demand continues to exceed new supply. "Finding a flexible management method is the only way we can get through as an industry," said Stu Bresel, chief operating office of PJM interconnection. According to a study released by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, taking action when local grids reach their maximum capacity could save $40 to $150 billion over the next decade in capital investments. This would allow households and small business to avoid paying for the build-out of grids for data centers. Demand response is a practice in the electric industry that allows utilities and grid operators to ask massive server warehouses to reduce their energy consumption. This will ease fears about rising costs and power shortages. Matt O'Connor is the Chief Investment Officer for International Energy at Carlyle. The company develops and invests data centers. He said: "I believe we will see and we are already seeing that heavy users of data centers can figure this out and model it into their operations." TRANSITION PERIOD In the past, data centers have not participated in demand response. According to industry sources, traditional cloud data centers which store data at a single location must have a "constant and consistent" energy source. Otherwise the data may be compromised. The data centers that are being built to develop artificial intelligence could be more flexible. This would allow for the energy-intensive training of large language models to be moved to other sites. Companies are now committing to shifting workloads from data centers to other facilities, or using backup power instead of drawing electricity from the grid at peak periods. Google announced recently contracts with several utilities that will lower the consumption of certain data centers if needed. Nvidia launched an initiative with Emerald AI this week to control and move power consumption from servers warehouses during grid demand spikes. This week, EPRI also?released an?framework with input from dozens of power companies and?technology firms, including Meta, outlining how data centers can be more flexible. It is hoped that this effort will reduce the time required to connect data centres. Owners increasingly ask how to make their data centres more flexible. Jennifer Cahill is an associate vice-president at Black & Veatch. The firm's customers include technology and utility companies. Cahill explained that "you're experiencing a period of transition where everyone would like to make the change, and we are working out how it can be achieved."
India's water and power supply will be tested by extreme heat this summer
The demand for electricity will be at record levels during hot days
The heat will add to the water stress in cities
Water shortages in the future can be avoided by reusing wastewater
Bhasker Tripathi
India Meteorological Department warns that many parts of the country may experience more hot days than average this summer.
The Council on Energy Environment and Water (CEEW), an independent policy think-tank based in Delhi, has found that the intensifying heat is already causing spikes in demand for electricity to cool, while increasing pressure on water supplies.
India, which already struggles to meet its energy demands due to the Iran War, has seen its demand for electricity rise. India imports 90% of its oil, and 60% of its natural gas.
Heatwaves in India are not only a health issue, but they also act as a stress-test for the country's urban water and electricity systems.
Record Temperatures Expected
In May 2024, India's hottest ever year, electricity demand peaked at 250 gigawatts, causing power outages throughout the country. Peak demand in 2025 was 4% less than in June of last year, or nearly 240 gigawatts.
The researchers say that India's electricity demand for 2026 has already exceeded projections, as the hot weather came earlier than normal after the world experienced its fifth warmest month on record.
International Energy Agency reports that cooling already accounts for 20% of India's peak electric demand.
Disha Agrawal is the senior programme leader at CEEW. She said that due to the unusually warm summer weather, peak electricity demand may rise to 260 gigawatts.
This level of demand exceeds the entire capacity of electricity generation of many middle-sized countries.
India's installed capacity for power generation is about 500 gigawatts, approximately half of which comes from non-fossil fuels, primarily solar and wind power, but also hydro and nuclear.
Solar and wind power are intermittent, whereas coal plants produce electricity continuously.
India's gas consumption is only 2% of the total electricity generated, but it uses 8 gigawatts during heat waves or periods of high demand.
In order to meet peak summer demand in a period of geopolitical uncertainty, the Indian Government has ordered coal plants to operate at full capacity, deferring maintenance. It plans to use solar energy for daytime power.
CLEAN ENERGY GROUP GOALS
Researchers?said that the variability of renewable energy, limited battery storage, and ageing grids remain major challenges to India's electrical system. Extreme heat could also further strain infrastructure.
Agrawal said that "Scaling up clean energy quickly is critical for meeting India's growing power demand reliably, and affordably."
She said that if India's electricity demand grows faster than projected, it may be necessary to increase its non-fossil energy capacity to 600 gigawatts by 2030.
The extreme heat in India is increasing the pressure on water systems. This is particularly true in cities with limited freshwater resources.
According to the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), India treats just?28%?of its wastewater. This leaves most cities with no functioning systems for reusing treated water in industry, agriculture, or other non-drinking applications.
Nitin Basi, fellow of CEEW, stated that India could reuse over 31,000 million cubic meters of treated wastewater each year by 2047, if?supported by investments and policy reforms. This is about 30 times the water used by Delhi in a year.
Bassi said that "scaling up treated wastewater reuse is one of most practical ways for Indian cities to ensure water security."
Many states and cities are preparing to meet the increasing demand for water and heat. As part of an action plan for the summer, Delhi authorities have increased tanker fleets, installed monitoring systems, and opened emergency water centres.
Climate change has reshaped heat patterns in the country. According to a CEEW report last year, more than half of India’s districts, which are home to 76% of its population, are susceptible to extreme heat.
Experts report that many cities still rely more on short-term solutions such as cooling shelters or water kiosks than they do on long-term changes to infrastructure needed to deal with the continued rise in temperatures.
(source: Reuters)