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Andy Home: Uranium revival brings it back to the forefront of critical issues
Is Uranium a Critical Mineral? The U.S. Geological Survey has decided that it is not a critical mineral. It was removed from the list of critical minerals in 2022 because it wasn't a "fuel-mineral". Donald Trump, the president of the United States, wants you to reconsider. In one of Trump's "Unleashing America's Energy" directives, the Secretary of Interior is required to instruct the Director of the USGS "to consider updating the survey list of critical mineral including the possibility of including uranium." Included on the list, domestic uranium project funding and approvals would be expedited. It is curious that uranium slipped through the legal loophole in the Energy Act of 2020 which states only "non-fuel minerals" can be classified as critical minerals. Uranium checks off many criticality boxes. Uranium is experiencing a dramatic increase in demand. The global supply is highly concentrated, and the United States imports almost all of its uranium. These changing dynamics are reflected in the uranium prices. The frothy rally of last year to a 16-year peak of $106 per lb is over. At $71 per lb today, the price of uranium remains higher than it was in any decade following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011. NUCLEAR COMBAT Fukushima forced many countries to reconsider the role nuclear energy plays in their energy mix, but the threat of climate change has brought nuclear back into the spotlight. This affirmation was made at the COP28 Summit in December 2023 when more than twenty countries released the "Declaration to Triple Nuclear Power". The official recognition was that "nuclear energy plays a key role in achieving net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050, and maintaining the 1.5 degree goal within reach." Trump's administration may not be impressed by such green credentials, but Republicans see nuclear energy as an important component of national defense, which is why it has bipartisan support, even if for different reasons. The big tech companies are also excited as they search for more and more power to fuel their data centers. Microsoft signed an agreement with Constellation Energy to help revive a unit at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant in Pennsylvania in September. Re-embrace nuclear power is an international trend. According to the International Energy Agency, the generation from nearly 420 nuclear reactors around the world is set to reach new levels in 2025. The IEA reported that 63 reactors were currently being built, which is the most since 1990. Over 60 reactors' lifetimes will also be extended. SHORTAGE OF SUPPLIES As nuclear power is on the rise, uranium is in high demand. The supply of uranium is not keeping up with the rising demand. According to the IEA, a decade of low oil prices has had a negative impact on production, especially in the United States. Production fell from nearly five million lb per year in 2014 to only 21,000 lb by 2021. The global uranium industry is heavily concentrated. According to the World Nuclear Association, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia will account for two-thirds or more of the global production in 2022. One of the factors that triggered the price spike in January 2024 was the warning by Kazatomprom of Kazakhstan, the largest producer of sulphuric acids, that it may not be able to meet its production targets because of a lack of sulphuric. Political stress and market stress are often combined. The United States wants to reduce its dependency on Russia in terms of enriched uranium. In 2023, Russian material will account for 27% of enriched uranium supplies to U.S. commercial nuclear reactors. The Joe Biden Administration banned Russian imports. However, there were waivers until 2027. Russia responded by placing restrictions on shipments into the United States. Trump's threats to impose tariffs against Canada, the biggest supplier of uranium for the U.S. Market, further complicates the situation. Going Critical After a decade of hibernation, the uranium markets are re-energized. Last year's price surge was driven by a lot speculative frenzy, with institutional investors like Goldman Sachs as well as retail investment vehicles like Sprott Physical Uranium Trust following the rally. The uranium prices remain historically high. The market has priced in a shortfall of supply relative to the demand from an expanding global fleet nuclear reactors. Many of these projects use leach technology to help fill the gap. The difference between a mineral that is critical and one called a "fuel-mineral" which is becoming increasingly critical will determine how quickly they can activate. The author is a columnist at
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Native Filipinos are hoping carbon credits will protect their forests
Indigenous communities are aiming to reduce deforestation Leaders sign a carbon credit deal protect forests Illegal mining and logging are the main threats By Mariejo Ramos Some Indigenous leaders from the Western Archipelagic Province want to change this by getting investors to buy carbon credits to reduce deforestation. Last month, two ancestral domains in Palawan's Mount Mantalingahan protected landscape of 97,000 acres signed an agreement with Conservation International (CI) and the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples to develop a carbon finance project within their region and reduce deforestation. Panglima Silnay is the leader of the Pala'wan Indigenous Group. He hopes that the long-term conservation efforts can be managed by the members of the community without interference from businesses or individuals who want to exploit the resources. Silnay, a Silnay representative, said that the Pala'wan Indigenous Peoples depend directly on nature to provide food and income. However, Silnay also warned of threats from illegal mining, logging and palm oil plantations, which destroy agriculture and threaten land, as well as climate risk and land grabs. Conservation International reported that despite its protected status, Mount Mantalingahan has lost over 20% of its mangrove and upland forests in the past two decades due to illegal clearing. The Legal Rights and Natural Resources Center, a local conservation group, says that indigenous Filipinos are the main protectors of forests. However, the global boom in energy transition minerals is increasing pressure on Indigenous lands. INDIGENOUS OWNERSHIP The Philippines recognizes Indigenous Filipinos' rights to natural resources on their land, but they struggle to obtain ancestral domain titles which acknowledge their ownership. The new agreement stipulates that the two ancestral domains of Palawan will work together to create a project to measure and verify the amount planet-warming carbon stored and captured by conservation efforts. Wilson Barbon said that the Philippines director of Conservation International stated that the project, the first carbon project in the country owned by Indigenous Peoples, would act as a catalyst for other programmes. He said that the agreement recognized Palawan's Indigenous group as the rightful beneficiaries of the carbon captured by their forests. Barbon stated that "we will only assist them in developing their carbon assets if they build their capacity to manage their own carbon projects on a long-term basis." CARBON CREDITS Carbon trading is still a work in progress and the Philippines has not yet formalised a system for issuing credits to businesses who emit carbon dioxide. The issue of verifying which projects reduce greenhouse gases and how much is a major source of debate around the world. Some activists argue that credits are a way for polluters to continue polluting. Barbon said, "We acknowledge that there are concerns." "Our position is to try and improve the system instead of shutting it down." He hopes that the new Indigenous enterprise will set the standard in carbon credits projects that are strong on biodiversity and community engagement. He said that the project "shows government an example of community-led initiative". It is difficult, but can be done. This can also force the government to create the framework for more community-led initiatives in the future. Silnay took eight years to come up with an agreement on a project for carbon trading. The community must maintain their forest for the next 25-years through forest protection, carbon inventories, land zoning, and other alternatives to destructive slash and burn farming. The carbon credits generated will not generate revenue for the community until next year. However, they will be invested directly in conservation. Conservation International will continue to pay the minimum wage for community members who participate in conservation activities. Indigenous representatives will be responsible for managing the funds generated by the carbon project. The ancestral domain management office of the government will create an annual budget that outlines how carbon credits can spent. Romel Ligo is a pastor who leads the Palawan Indigenous Community. He said that the project can help to resolve the divide among Indigenous leaders about how they should better protect their natural resources. He said that some were lured in by private companies offering short-term work in exchange for the resources.
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Valero Energy's profit beats expectations on lower costs
Valero Energy, a refiner, beat its fourth-quarter revenue and profit estimates on Thursday thanks to lower costs and stable output. The company's shares rose by 1.4% during premarket trading, after it announced that profits in its renewable-diesel division had doubled and costs were down 10.2% compared to a year ago. Analysts at JP Morgan said that Valero’s operational expenses fell in every segment compared to their estimates, except for the Gulf Coast. Analysts noted also that the segments of refining and Renewable Diesel performed better than expected. Analysts at Scotiabank said that the outperformance in refining was due to a combination of increased throughput and higher margins, noting that this was despite an environment with challenging margins during the quarter. Fuel demand is expected to be lower in 2024, as it has decreased across the globe. Valero’s net income dropped by nearly 77% to $281m, or 88c per share. The refinery margins fell by 34.5%. LSEG data shows that the company's throughput was steady at 3 million barrels a day. This helped it to report an adjusted profit of 64 cents a share, exceeding analysts' estimates of 7 cents - a penny per share. The revenue of $30.75 Billion also exceeded expectations of $30.2 Billion. The company announced that it is progressing on its FCC Unit Optimization Project at the St. Charles Refinery, which will allow it to increase the yields of high-valued products. The project will cost approximately $230 million, and it is anticipated to be completed by 2026.
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UK submits plans for cutting emissions to UN climate body
On Thursday, Britain provided further details about its plan to reduce carbon emissions to United Nations Climate Body. It outlined the actions it was taking to reach the ambitious targets set by Prime Minister Keir starmer last year. Starmer announced Britain's climate goals at the UN COP29 summit last year, promising to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 81 percent by 2035. He did not explain how he would achieve these goals. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC, submission announced by Britain’s climate minister Ed Miliband to Parliament is the official paperwork required by this UN body that keeps track of the targets for each country. The document did not include new policies or sector-by-sector detailed plans. Instead, it summarized the work done by the government to reduce emissions. The submission promised to provide more information in the future. The document stated that "we will provide an updated cross-economy climate plan in due time, detailing all the policy packages for each sector." Many saw the announcement by Britain of more ambitious goals as one of few positives at the COP29 in November, which was overshadowed due to concerns that Donald Trump’s election in the United States might damage international efforts to stop a rise of global temperatures. In a response to the submission, UNFCCC chief Simon Stiell stated that the UK's new bold climate plan puts it in an even better position to capitalize on the boom in climate action. The G20 and other countries around the globe should also follow suit. "No one can afford not to participate." Reporting by William James, edited by Sarah Young and Sachin Ravikumar
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The role of billionaire Caltagirone in the Italian banking M&A boom
A surge in M&A has led to the emergence of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone as a key player in a reshaping in Italy's financial industry. BATTLES GENERALI & MEDIOBANCA Caltagirone expanded his financial investments in Italy last year, becoming a major shareholder in the bailed out bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena and fund manager Anima Holding. Since 2021, he has become the second largest shareholder of the Milanese bank. The bank in Milan is now the second largest investor. Mediobanca, the largest shareholder in Generali, has had disagreements with Caltagirone over the leadership of the insurer in the past. Caltagirone, Leonardo Del Vecchio and the late Ray Ban billionaire Leonardo Del Vecchio failed to remove Generali CEO Philippe Donnet in 2022. Donnet's term of three years expires on May. The conservative government of Prime Minister Giorgia Mello has approved changes to corporate governance championed and criticized by Caltagirone. These changes make it difficult for the outgoing board of a company to suggest a successor. Generali's board has stated that it will not nominate any candidates, including a candidate for CEO, when Generali retires due to the new rules. Donnet has agreed to serve another term as CEO. WHAT IS CALTAGIRONE'S ROLE IN ITALIAN BANKING CONSOLIDATION? Caltagirone is a conservative Italian government ally who has long said that it wanted to re-privatise MPS bailed out to help create a large third banking player. The surprise offer of 13.3 billion euros for Mediobanca was rejected on Jan. 24. Treasury had been promoting the merger of MPS and Banco BPM for some time, but an aggressive buyout bid by UniCredit for BPM derailed this plan. BPM bought a 5% share in MPS prior to UniCredit's move, which raised the possibility of a future tie-up. Caltagirone's network of shares seemed to indicate that he would play a part in this tie-up. Caltagirone's network of shareholdings was expected to play a role in that tie-up. Caltagirone's expected support of MPS's bid to acquire Mediobanca could help UniCredit in its pursuit of BPM, as it removes BPM's potential defence. Caltagirone, in December, named two representatives on the MPS Board. One of them was his son Alessandro. Who is CALTAGIRONE and what does it do? Caltagirone is an Italian entrepreneur who has interests in the construction industry, cement, real estate, publishing, and finance. He was born 1943 in Rome to a Sicilian family. Caltagirone, according to Forbes 2024's wealth ranking is Italy's 10th wealthiest person with a wealth estimated at 5.6 billion euro. He is the owner of several regional newspapers and Rome's daily Il Messaggero. Il Messaggero is Italy's eighth largest newspaper in terms of circulation. It supports Meloni's administration. Caltagirone, despite his wealth and power, keeps a low profile and gives few media interviews. In the beginning, he revived his father's construction business with his two brothers and cousin. In the 1980s, he expanded his business by acquiring the cement and infrastructure company Vianini Group. Cementir, his Milan-listed company, employs 3,000 people in 18 different countries. According to its website, it is the biggest cement producer in Denmark and the third largest in Belgium. It also ranks among the top international grey cement operators of Turkey. Caltagirone is survived by three children who are all active in his business, but there is no successor. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan, Jane Merrill and Gianluca Smeraro)
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China's imports of iron ore, coal and other minerals fell in January but prices varied: Russell
China's iron ore imports and seaborne coal arrivals are expected to be soft in the first quarter, with January arrivals falling to multi-month lows. The price trend for two of the most important bulk commodities is divergent. Iron ore has held steady, while thermal coal has fallen to its lowest level in almost four years. According to Kpler, commodity analysts, China is the largest iron ore purchaser in the world. It will import 99.5 millions metric tons of this key raw material for steel in January. This would be a drop from the official December customs figure, which was 112.5 million tonnes. It would also be the lowest total monthly since June's 97.5 million. Due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which fell this year at the end and beginning of January, there is caution in regards to iron ore imports for the month of January. Some cargoes may be pushed into February due to the Lunar New Year holidays, which this year fell at the end of January and early in February. Kpler estimates that China imported 27.97 millions tons of coal in January. This is a 26% decrease from the 37.59 metric tons imported in December. The data shows that coal imports in December totaled 52,35 million tonnes. This includes arrivals by land from countries like Mongolia and Russia. In the past, coal imports have tended to decline in January and in February after the peak winter demand has passed. However, the drop in coal imports in January of this year compared to December is much greater than the 9% in January 2024 or the 10.9% in January 2023. China, which is the largest coal producer, consumer, and importer in the world, may require less coal from the seaborne markets as the domestic supply increases. According to data released by the government on January 17, December coal production reached 439 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2% over the same period a year ago. The annual output increased 1.3%, reaching 4.76 billion tones. SteelHome, a consulting firm that assesses thermal coal in Qinhuangdao, has assessed the impact of this robust increase on domestic coal prices. The price of a ton was 765 yuan (106 dollars) this week. This is down 12.6% from its 2024 peak of 875 yuan, reached in September 2024, and it's the lowest since April 2021. As a result, the price of coal in China is falling. This has spilled over to other countries' exports. Argus, a commodity reporting agency, assessed Indonesian coal at $48.76 per ton during the week ending Jan. 24. This was the lowest price since April 2021. It also represented a 16.2% drop from the peak of $58.17 reached in March 2024. Australian coal with a 5,500-kcal/kg energy content, which is popular among Chinese buyers, cost $80.12 per ton during the week ending Jan. 24. This was down 17.1% compared to its March 2024 peak of $96.66 and the lowest price since July 2021. RESILIENT IRON ORE Iron ore prices follow a different trend. While coal prices reflect China's domestic dynamics, they are slightly off. The price of futures on the Singapore Exchange has been stable over the past few weeks despite the expected decline in imports in January. The contract closed at $101.55 per ton on January 6, up 4.4% since the low of $97.31. Since October, the price has remained above $100 per ton. The exception was a five-day trading period earlier in January. Iron ore prices reflect that China's imports of iron ore have remained stable in recent months, despite a small drop in steel production in 2024. Iron ore, unlike coal, may be supported by sentiment. Some market participants are optimistic that Beijing’s stimulus efforts in 2025 will be rewarded with a stabilised property sector, and an increase in consumer demand for manufactured products. Iron ore prices have also been able to withstand the threat of a potential trade war from the Trump administration, which has threatened to impose tariffs up 60% on Chinese imports. These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.
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Uganda confirms Ebola outbreak in capital Kampala with one death
The health ministry announced on Thursday that Uganda has confirmed a new outbreak of Ebola in Kampala. It was confirmed on Wednesday that the first confirmed case died from the disease. After developing symptoms similar to fever, the patient, an nurse working at Mulago Referral Hospital in the capital city, sought treatment from various hospitals, including Mulago. The patient died of the disease at Mulago National Referral Hospital, Mulago on 29 January. The ministry stated that post-mortem samples had confirmed Sudan Ebola Virus Disease. Contact with bodily fluids or tissue infected by the hemorrhagic virus can cause it. Headache, nausea, bleeding, and muscle pain are all symptoms. Uganda declared the outbreak over on January 11, 2023, after nearly four months of fighting to contain it. Six health workers were among the 55 people who died in the last outbreak. (Reporting and writing by Elias Biryabarema, Editing by Bate Felice)
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Los Angeles has a moonshot opportunity to rebuild after fires
Los Angeles is recovering from the devastating wildfires. Environmental engineers, urban planners, and experts in natural disasters are all casting visions for what might come next. Where parking lots and strip malls once existed, apartment buildings could be built, and locals would walk to shops, offices, and cafes on the ground floor, European-style. It would be better to "infill" the city vertically with affordable housing in safe downtown areas rather than spreading outwards and adding more single-family houses on fire-prone hillside. Some blocks could become buffer zones where building is prohibited. The city's palm trees that burn like Roman Candles could be replaced by native fire-resistant trees. Here are some bold ideas that academics have to help Los Angeles recover from the Eaton & Palisades Fires. These fires killed 28 people, damaged or destroyed 16,000 buildings and caused significant damage. The blazes combined charred an area of 59 square miles (152 square kilometers), which is larger than Paris. Many people are only just now allowed to return to their destroyed neighborhoods. Few of the dozen experts interviewed expected that their dream plans would be implemented when construction began. They cited factors such as lack of insurance coverage in the future and political pressures to rebuild like before. Experts in housing, urban development and climate change said Los Angeles still has the chance to think out of the box. There was also a consensus that there shouldn't be a rush to rebuild. Residents of Pacific Palisades, Altadena, and surrounding areas should have time to dream and decide on the future look of their communities. Emily Schlickman is an assistant professor of landscape design and environmental planning at the University of California Davis. She suggests moving away from areas that are prone to fire. MODEL CITIES Jeffrey Schlegelmilch, of Columbia University, suggested that Los Angeles could take a lesson from Kobe, Japan. The city was decimated in 1995 by an earthquake and officials there imposed a building moratorium for two months. "Giving yourself enough time to develop a solid solution is important," said Schlegelmilch. He's the director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, located at the climate school of the university. Houston's Harris County, Texas and San Antonio, Texas have both purchased homes and property to reduce the risk of future flooding. Harris County authorities demolished homes that were flooded by Hurricane Harvey and offered them pre-flood values to willing sellers. Char Miller, professor of environmental history and analysis at Pomona College, Claremont, California is one of those who point out Texas' experience. Miller stated that while purchasing properties in Pacific Palisades or Altadena could be expensive, they would be feasible with financial support from the city, the county, the state, and perhaps insurers. Miller envisions converting burned-out lots into fire buffer zones. Miller believes that while the move would disrupt residents, many would use the money for relocation. People say, "Yeah. I don't wanna be in danger. And you're buying my out." Miller replied, "Thank you. He is frustrated by the city's and state's efforts to speed up redevelopment of areas where similar density housing was burned. Miller continued, "They have just stopped the moonshot." Alice Hill, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations for energy and environment, would like to see more green space, such as playing fields and bicycle paths, between areas with high fire risk and homes. In an essay published on Jan. 14, Hill said that it was "simply unsafe" to rebuild the communities in their original locations. Retreating could be the best approach. A LITTLE PANACHE Some experts recommend rebuilding communities in a manner that is resistant to fire. Michael Gollner is a professor of Mechanical Engineering at the University of California in Berkeley. Gollner tests the flame resistance of prototype homes. He said that homes can be made fire-resistant by moving the wooden fence five feet back (1.5 meters), encircling a home with gravel, and placing mesh over attic ventilation to stop embers. There is also landscaping, which can be a controversial topic for some homeowners. Who wants to cut their juniper down? "But if there is a wildfire your juniper will be a torch," Gollner said. Los Angeles ecologists recommend that residents replace palms, junipers, and eucalyptus trees with California oaks. These trees have evolved to survive fires. The species is characterized by thick bark which resists fires, and leathery leaves which burn slowly. Alexandra Syphard is a wildfire ecologist with the Conservation Biology Institute in San Diego. Hussam Mahmoud is a professor of civil and environmental engineering, at Colorado State University. He believes that the key to predicting future fires lies in predicting their path. He developed a model to calculate which buildings would burn. This allows a community, instead of adapting every home to resist wildfires, to harden the "super-spreader" structures. To harden a house, use metal or concrete as a roof material and fire retardant materials for the walls. The heat is less likely to cause the glass to crack and burn a house from the inside if you use multi-paned windows. Mahmoud said, "When the fires struck L.A. it was clear that no one knew what would happen. Which buildings were most likely to burn." Reporting by Andrew Hay and Brad Brooks, Colorado and New Mexico respectively; editing by Paul Thomasch and Sandra Maler
New report urges IEA away from energy transformation focus
According to the former director of the International Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency should rewrite its annual energy outlook in order to reflect the real-world, and not just to reinforce its current focus on global energy transformation.
Former IEA oil director Neil Atkinson, and Mark Mills of the National Center for Energy Analytics (a think-tank) wrote the report, Energy Delusions. The authors claimed that it was aimed at influencing Donald Trump's new administration.
Since more than 50 years, the Paris-based IEA provides research and data on energy supply, security and investment to industrialized countries.
Trump's plan to boost the oil and gas industry by promoting the traditional fuels is at odds with the agency's focus on clean energy. Other oil producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, have also been angered by the agency.
Atkinson's Report identifies 23 assumptions that were made by the agency, which led to a conclusion it says was flawed: that the global economy of oil would peak in 2030 and that no new investment in oil and gas is required.
According to the report, the IEA overestimates adoption of electric vehicles and underestimates the growth in emerging oil markets.
The report stated that "the promotional aspirations, and flawed assumptions, underlying IEA’s peak-demand scenario, have serious implications given the obvious global security and economic considerations when planning and delivering affordable, reliable energy supplies."
The IEA stated that the report contained "rudimentary mistakes" and "fundamental misunderstandings about energy systems in general, and IEA modeling in particular", and said it welcomes suggestions for improving the analysis.
The report incorrectly implies that the IEA’s oil demand forecasts are outliers. In reality, they are in line with similar scenarios from other organisations including major oil companies, according to a statement by the agency.
The IEA's focus has shifted in recent years from oil and gas to clean energy, as governments look for input on climate goals.
This shift drew harsh criticism from Republicans on Capitol Hill, and Trump's presidential campaign identified climate change as a topic he would address if elected. Around a quarter is provided by the United States.
(source: Reuters)