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Lesotho's economy will be destroyed by Trump's tariffs, says economist

An economic analyst in Lesotho said that a reciprocal 50% trade tariff, the largest levy among the long list of U.S. president Donald Trump's target economies, would kill the small Southern African country Trump mocked last month.

Lesotho is among the poorest countries in the world with a Gross Domestic Product of just under $2 billion.

The United States has a large surplus of trade with Canada, mainly made up by diamonds and textiles including Levi's Jeans.

Exports to the United States in 2024 will total $237 million and represent more than 10%.

Trump imposed new tariffs against global trading partners on Wednesday, upsetting decades of rules-based commerce and threatening to increase costs for consumers.

He said that the "reciprocal tariffs" were a reaction to duties and non-tariff barriers placed on U.S. products. According to the U.S. Administration, Lesotho charges tariffs of 99% on American products.

Experts in trade said that the AGOA trade agreement, which was meant to develop African economies through preferential access, had ended.

The pain was also compounded after Trump demolished USAID, a government agency that had been a major aid provider to the continent.

Thabo Qhesi is an independent economist based in Maseru. He said that the 50% reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. will kill the textile and clothing sector in Lesotho.

Oxford Economics reported that the textile industry, which employs around 40,000 people, is Lesotho’s largest private employer. It accounts for about 90% of manufacturing employment as well as exports.

Then there are the retailers that sell food. Then there are the residential property owners that rent out houses to workers. This means that if factories close, the industry will die and there are multiplier effects," Qhesi explained.

"So Lesotho is dead, as they say."

Lesotho is a mountainous country of 2 million people surrounded by South Africa. The government had no comment regarding the trade tariffs Thursday.

Last month, the foreign minister said that the health sector, which is heavily reliant on aid, had already felt the impact. The country has one of highest HIV/AIDS rates in the entire world.

The formula for calculating the U.S. Tariffs used the U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods with each Country as a proxy of alleged unfair practice, and then divided that by the amount imported into the United States.

Lesotho, Madagascar and Nicaragua, which import small quantities of U.S. products, were hit with higher tariffs. These countries are much wealthier than Lesotho. According to Oxford Economics, this is also true for Vietnam, Nicaragua, and Cambodia, whose exports to the United States represent more than 25% GDP.

Sekhoane Masokela is a corn seller in Maseru who saw Trump's announcement to be a reason for him to look for new markets.

"Trump is not the only one who has a country. He is giving us a chance to break ties with him, and find other countries." Masokela stated that it was clear that Trump no longer wanted to work with the country. (additional reporting from Sisipho Scweyiya in Johannesburg, writing by Silvia Aloisi and editing by Hugh Lawson).

(source: Reuters)