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China's exports of rare earths drop sharply in September
Customs data released on Monday showed that China's exports of rare earths dropped 31% from the previous month, despite new controls implemented last week. This threatened to disrupt a possible trade truce between Washington and Beijing. China, which is the largest exporter of the rare earths on the planet, sold 4,033 tonnes of the rare earths during September. This was a drop of 30.9% compared to August and the lowest since February. The rare earths family consists of 17 elements. Because the data released on Monday was aggregate, it's unclear which types of exports were affected or which countries. On Oct. 20, a more detailed breakdown will be published. China's rare earth exports dropped sharply in April, after the country imposed export restrictions as a response to U.S. Tariffs. The shipments recovered steadily up until June when they reached an all-time peak, but they have been falling every month since. The U.S. president was prompted to take action after China announced on Friday that it would be expanding its export controls for rare earths. New tariffs are on the way were coming for Beijing. Reporting by Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Amy Lv; editing by Thomas Derpinghaus
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Taiwan's T-Dome air defence system is better integrated for higher kill rates
The Taiwanese "T-Dome", an air defence system, will have a more integrated and efficient "sensor-to-shooter," mechanism to achieve a higher killing rate. A special budget for the end of the year will propose specific expenditures on the system. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te revealed the multi-layered system of air defence he calls "T-Dome", as part of the government's plans to modernise its military in order to better deter China. China views the island is its own territory, and has increased military and political pressure. Wellington Koo, the Minister of Defence, told reporters in Taipei that Lai's idea was to use a "sensor-to shooter" concept to integrate systems to respond faster and more effectively to enemy targets. He said that if you achieve integration you will increase the chances of interception and be able to coordinate firepower more efficiently and effectively. The U.S. Military has focused on "Sensor-to-Shooter", including the Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control Concept to connect sensors and shooting into one system. Taiwan's surface-to air defence systems revolve around Patriot missiles made in the U.S. and Sky Bow missiles from Taiwan, along with Stinger missiles designed for low-level interception. Taiwan has also developed the Chiang-Kong high-altitude interceptor missile. We won't achieve effective interception if we don't integrate our anti-missile capabilities with anti-air, anti-drone and anti-air capabilities. Koo stated that we will prioritize procurements that emphasize mobility and high-survivability. He added that a special budget will be released by the end the year to fund new equipment for "T-Dome". Koo added that the "T-Dome", which is asymmetrical, also fits Taiwan's approach to war, allowing its smaller forces to be more agile and capable of delivering a more focused punch. Lai, rejecting Beijing's claims of sovereignty, has committed to increasing defence spending to 5% GDP by 2030. China has never given up the use of force in order to control Taiwan. Beijing's armed forces continue to fight corruption while developing new weapons such as stealth fighters, aircraft carriers and other advanced technology. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Additional reporting by Roger Tung)
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Iron ore prices fall on Sino-US trade tension
Iron ore futures declined on Monday due to concerns about renewed Sino-U.S. tensions. However, the firm demand from China's top consumer, along with the hope of Beijing providing more stimulus to offset the impact on its economy, helped to limit losses. U.S. president Donald Trump announced additional tariffs of 100% for China's U.S. bound exports as well as new export controls "on any and all critical software". These measures were to be implemented by November 1, just nine days before the existing tariff relief was due to expire. Trump's steep tariff increases, which ended an uneasy truce, between the two world's largest economies, followed China's announcement to increase restrictions on rare-earth elements, vital to the semiconductor and defense industries. Analysts said that the renewed Sino-US Trade spat has soured market sentiment and sent prices of commodities lower. However, it also raised hopes that China will unveil stimuli to counter the negative effects on its economic development. As of 0250 GMT, the benchmark November iron ore price on Singapore Exchange was down 0.15% at $106.2 per ton. As of 0300 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped 0.13% to 794.50 yuan (111.44 dollars) per ton. ANZ analysts stated in a report that "Fiscal Measures may be implemented if necessary to mitigate any potential shocks related to trade". Analysts at ANZ said that policymakers have the ability to adapt recent regulatory tightening in relation to anti-involution campaigns. The data from Mysteel, a consultancy, showed that the stable demand is also a factor in limiting the downside. Data shows that the Chinese steelmakers' average daily hot metal production was 2,42 million tonnes per week by October 10 - 3.6% more than during the same period of last year. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking materials fell by 2.19% and 1.35 percent, respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. Rebar fell by 1.03%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.97%. Wire rod and stainless steel also lost ground.
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China's iron ore state buyer offers BHP loads for sale amid fears of a ban
On Thursday, several cargoes (cartons) of BHP Iron Ore were sold in China. At least one of them was bought by a local trader. This could have helped to calm Australian fears that Beijing had banned the sale iron ore from BHP. BHP sold 170,000 metric tons of cargo to a Chinese merchant on Thursday, which was the first trading day after China's national holiday of a week, according to traders who have direct knowledge of this matter. They said the cargo was paid in dollars. According to a review of an offer sheet, on the same day, China Mineral Resources Group's Shanghai branch (CMRG), which was set up to centralise iron-ore purchases and to win better terms from mines, offered steelmakers eight cargoes totaling 1,14 million tons of BHP ore. AUSTRALIAN FEAR OF CHINESE BANNING ON IRON EXPORTS Bloomberg reported that CMRG told major steelmakers to temporarily halt all purchases of new BHP cargoes. This was an extension of a previous pause in purchases of BHP’s Jimblebar Fines product, a kind of iron ore. This news caused alarm in Canberra, as many feared that China would ban Australia's largest export in the same way it banned coal and other commodities back in 2020. Two other sources who have direct knowledge of this matter said that CMRG had told steelmakers during last month's negotiations with BHP to not buy BHP Jimblebar Fines. However, they could purchase other grades of ore with the permission of CMRG. TRADE IN BHP'S JIMBLEBAR FINES STILL FROZEN All four sources confirm that none of the cargoes offered or sold on Thursday was Jimblebar Fines. Their trade is still frozen. Could not determine whether CMRG purchased its cargoes directly from BHP, or how many of them were sold. CMRG has not responded to a request for comment sent via email. BHP's spokesperson stated that BHP doesn't comment on commercial agreements. The two traders said that a limited supply of Jimblebar, a liquid but small product with a production rate of 40 million tons per year, would not be likely to cause a rise in iron ore price. They added that Rio Tinto’s flagship Pilbara Fines product would also be a suitable substitute. According to local media, BHP CEO Mike Henry quelled concerns over CMRG's CMRG decision during talks with Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers last week. He said the move was a part of commercial negotiation. The office of the Treasurer did not reply to a comment request.
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The climate has blessed a Japanese Pinot Noir town, but now the town is worried about its weather
The gradual warming of temperatures has encouraged locals in Yoichi, a small Japanese town, to experiment with the delicate grape varieties over the last two decades. Yoichi is well-known as the birthplace of Nikka Whisky. It was thrust into the limelight of viticulture five years ago when the 2017 Nana Tsu Mori Pinot Noir, produced by the local Domaine Takahiko Winery, appeared on the Noma wine list in Copenhagen. Resellers in Japan are now selling a bottle of this prized wine for $560. It was once priced at $30. The town of Hokkaido, located in Japan's northernmost isle, has also produced other wines that have won accolades. It now boasts about 20 wineries, and 70 vineyards. Farmers in Yoichi are worried that the Pinot Noir grape will be difficult to grow here, even before its reputation is accepted by the mainstream. Recent rapid temperature increases and more rain could occur during harvesting season. Takahiko Soga founded his winery, Domaine Takahiko in 2010. Soga once said that he thought Yoichi’s temperatures were similar to those in France’s Alsace Region, but they then reached levels comparable with Burgundy which produces some the world’s finest Pinot Noirs. He said, "I thought that we had reached Burgundy-like temperatures this year, but we've actually been closer to Loire and Bordeaux levels." Climate change affects many farmers in all parts of the world. However, it is only a blessing to a few. Pinot Noir is one grape that is especially sensitive to climate change. The grape is known for its elegant, transparent wines. It can grow in temperate to cool climates. However, because of its thin skin, and tightly packed clusters, it is extremely sensitive to too much rain or sun. Birds are causing you to be agitated The Winkler Index classifies the climates of wine-growing areas around the world. It is calculated by adding the daily average temperature above 10 degrees Celsius or 50 degrees Fahrenheit from April to Oktober. Hokkaido is generally regarded as having a cool climate, the Region I of the Winkler Climate Groups. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Yoichi has been slipping into Region II since 2023. This temperature zone is more often associated with medium-bodied wines like Merlot or Cabernet Sauvignon. Yoichi's summer of this year was the hottest since records began. The average temperature between June and August was 22.1 degrees Celsius, which is about 3 degrees above the average over the last three decades. The longer and warmer summers in Yoichi increase the risk that Pinot Noir grapes will ripen prematurely, resulting in unfavorable sugar levels and low acidity. The fruit is more susceptible to rain damage due to higher temperatures. Rain damage has affected the Pinot Noir grapes of Yuichi Hirotsu's vineyard, a multi-award winning winery owner. His family was among the first to plant this classic red in the town back in 2006. Hirotsu also says that he had never seen a heavy rain fall at the start of the autumn on another variety, the Austrian Zweigeltrebe. He said, "It was a long time to pick Zweigeltrebe because we had each damaged grape removed one by one." The winegrowers of Yoichi are also concerned about the increase in birds that want to eat their grapes. They blame this trend on climate change and say it has led to a reduction in nuts and seeds available for birds in nearby mountains. Yoichi is plagued by this scourge, and the sound of fireworks to scare it away is always present. Keisuke Saito, Yoichi's mayor, formed a "wine agreement" this year with the historic Pinot Noir community Gevrey-Chambertin. The two groups will exchange knowledge on production methods. As temperature and humidity control becomes increasingly difficult, Domaine Takahiko built an underground cellar that can store 100 barrels. Farmers believe that it will be important to try new varieties of Pinot Noir and other grapes. "Pinot Noir may not be the ultimate aim for this town." "We might find Merlot or Syrah in the future," Soga said. ($1 = 153.0900 yen)
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Russell: The China crude storage conundrum sets a price floor and ceiling
Does China's crude oil stockpile have a positive or negative impact on the price of crude? There is no easy answer, because much of the information that the market relies on is simply unavailable. This leads to speculation and uncertainty. China doesn't disclose how much crude oil it stores in strategic and commercial reserves. It also doesn't state its ultimate goal for inventory. The market must rely on anonymous sources in the Chinese oil industry to provide a steady drip of information. While useful, this is not definitive about what China, the largest crude buyer, is doing. The number of barrels of crude oil that China has so far stored this year is estimated by many analysts, but the majority of them cite at least 500,000 bpd. This number is consistent with the calculation of China's excess crude. The total volume of imports, domestic production, and refiners' processing are added together, then subtracted. The official data doesn't include some volumes that are processed by small refineries and petrochemical facilities. How has this affected market? Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, have been relatively stable since April. They trade in a range of $65 per barrel, with a short spike during the conflict between Israel & Iran. Prices would likely have been lower if China's demand for imports had consistently been 500,000 bpd less than it is. China's stockpile has enabled the eight members of OPEC+, to reduce their voluntary reductions of around 2.5 million bpd. without crashing prices. It is then a question of how much oil China will likely store in the coming years to reach its goal. The results can vary. The amount of oil China has in strategic and commercial stores is estimated to be between 800 million and 1.4 billion barrels. The Chinese government has also been speculating about how much oil they want to store, and the highest estimate is around two billion barrels. There is no consensus on the date by which they would like to complete the process. However, the consensus is 2028. There are many possible outcomes depending on how you view their current reserves and where they hope to be. This would mean that oil prices would rise if China wanted to add 1 billion barrels of storage over a period of three years. If you assume that the country already has around 600 million barrels of oil in tanks, and only wants to add 600 millions more, this would amount to approximately 550,000 barrels per day over the next three year. This level is around the current storage flow, and so does support oil prices but doesn't necessarily push them higher. China is also known to be flexible when it comes to building up its crude oil inventories. It will buy more when the price of crude oil is reasonable, and pull back when prices are too high. According to LSEG Oil Research, the September imports of oil fell to 10,83 million bpd, down from 11,66 million bpd during August. The month of September was the weakest since February, and the decline in imports followed the spike in prices in June when Brent hit as high as $81.40 per barrel during the conflict between Israel and Iran. The bulk of the cargoes arriving in September would have been planned during this period when prices were higher. It is likely that Chinese refiners opted to reduce their imports while they waited for lower prices to return. China's oil stockpiles become a stabilising force for the price of crude. China will increase its crude oil purchases if the prices remain relatively stable and low, providing a floor for the market. However, it will reduce imports if they rise, providing a ceiling. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Ukraine accuses Russia that it deliberately severed the external link with Zaporizhzhia Plant
Ukraine's Foreign Minister accused Russia of intentionally severing an external power line that connected the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, which is owned by Russia, to Moscow's grid. Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, said that Moscow is testing a reconnection with Russia's grid. Ukraine has long been concerned that Moscow might try to redirect output from the plant to its grid. Russian officials, however, have denied that they intend to restart the power plant which was seized by Moscow forces during the first weeks of their February 2022 invasion. Despite the fact that it is currently without electricity, this plant has been without an outside source of electricity for almost three weeks. The power to cool the fuel inside the plant and prevent a meltdown has been provided by emergency diesel generators. Sybiha, writing in English on X, wrote that "Russia deliberately broke the plant's connections with the Ukrainian grid to forcefully test reconnection." He condemned the "attempt theft of a peaceful Ukrainian nucleus facility". Sybiha stated that Moscow tries to deceive the IAEA, the entire technical and diplomatic community and pretends that the problem was caused by someone else. Both sides have accused each other of shelling which caused the outage. The IAEA (the U.N. nuclear watchdog) announced last week that a process to re-establish the external link is underway. It has repeatedly called for both sides not to take any actions that could compromise nuclear safety. In his video nightly address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that it wasn't in Russia’s interest to restore security at this plant. He said that the IAEA must take a "clearer and more honest position". The Russians did not immediately respond to the Ukrainian accusations. Interfax reported last week that Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's Deputy Foreign Ministry, said there was no reason to restart the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant for the time being in the absence external power sources. Rosatom, the state-owned nuclear corporation of Russia, was reported to be preparing for a restart before that report. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio; Ron Popeski)
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Mexico: At least 44 dead following torrential rains
The government announced on Sunday that at least 44 people died in Mexico as a result of flooding and heavy rains. Tropical storms Priscilla, and Raymond brought torrential rains that triggered landslides in five states. A government statement stated that 18 people were killed in Veracruz, 16 in Hidalgo and nine in Puebla, with one person in Queretaro. The government of President Claudia Sheinbaum managed a response plan for 139 affected communities. The Mexican military posted photos of people being evacuated using liferafts. Homes were covered in mud, and rescue workers had to wade through waist-high water through the streets. In coordination with the Governor and the Governors as well as the various federal authorities, we continue to pay attention to the emergencies in Veracruz and Hidalgo as well as Puebla, Queretaro and San Luis Potosi. Sheinbaum stated on X that the National Emergency Committee was in perpetual session.
Oil gains 1% following sharp drops on US-China tensions
Oil prices recovered some of their losses on Monday, after reaching a five-month low in the previous session. Investors hoped that potential talks between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping could ease tensions between trade between the two world's largest economies and oil users.
Brent crude futures were up 87 cents or 1.39% to $63.60 per barrel at 0045 GMT, after falling 3.82% to their lowest level since May 7 on Friday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was at $59.77 per barrel, up 87c or 1.48% after a 4.24% drop to reach its low since May 7.
Last week, U.S. and China trade tensions erupted after China increased its rare earth export controls. This prompted U.S. president Donald Trump to respond on Friday by imposing 100% tariffs on China’s U.S. bound exports as well as new export controls on “any and all critical" software by November 1.
The move comes ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit on the sidelines the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in South Korea. U.S. trade representative Jamison Greer stated that the meeting could still take place later this month.
Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent note that the key question is whether the proposals are actually implemented and have a severe impact on global supply chains, especially in high-tech manufacturing, or if they remain merely efforts to gain negotiating power ahead of bilateral discussions on the sidelines the APEC summit in South Korea later this month.
The most likely scenario is that both sides will pull back from their most aggressive policies, and that the talks will lead to an extension - possibly indefinite – of the tariff escalation freeze reached in May. However, there's still the possibility of tensions rising, which could lead to higher export taxes or tariffs.
The oil prices fell in March and April, when tensions between China and the United States were at their highest.
Trump announced on Sunday in the Middle East that the Gaza War has ended. He is now heading to Israel, where he will be releasing Israeli hostages as well as Palestinian prisoners under the fragile ceasefire which he brokered. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan.
(source: Reuters)