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Oil prices fall as investors remain on edge due to tariff uncertainty

Oil prices dropped on Monday, as investors' appetite for riskier assets was tempered by concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on global growth and fuel consumption, as well as the rising production from OPEC+ producers.

Brent crude dropped 31 cents or 0.4% to $70.05 per barrel at 0445 GMT, after closing up 90 cents Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $66.69 per barrel, down by 35 cents or 0.5% after closing the previous session 68 cents higher.

WTI fell for the seventh consecutive week, which is the longest losing streak in 2023. Brent also dropped for a third week running after U.S. president Donald Trump delayed and then imposed tariffs on key oil suppliers Canada, Mexico, and raised taxes on Chinese products. China responded by imposing tariffs on agricultural goods against the U.S., Canada and other countries.

In a recent note, ING analysts stated that "tariff uncertainty is a major driver of the weakness", adding that Saudi Arabia's oil price cuts and China's deflationary signal also hurt sentiment.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that other factors affecting oil prices are concerns over U.S. economic growth, a potential lifting of U.S. Sanctions on Russia and OPEC+'s decision to increase production.

In a client letter, he stated that despite the fact that the WTI price has recovered to $72, the weekly support will remain at $65/$62.

The oil prices recovered some of their losses on Friday, after Trump announced that the U.S. will increase sanctions against Russia if it fails to reach an agreement with Ukraine.

Two people with knowledge of the situation said that the U.S. was also looking at ways to ease sanctions against Russia's energy industry if Russia agreed to end its conflict with Ukraine.

OPEC+ (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia) has announced that it will increase oil production starting in April.

Alexander Novak, the Russian Deputy Premier, said on Friday that OPEC+ might reverse its decision if the market is imbalanced.

Saudi Arabia, which has been a major supplier of crude oil to Asia since March 2010, cut the price for the first three months.

Trump stated last week that he was willing to negotiate a nuclear deal with OPEC-member Iran in order to stop the latter from acquiring such weapons, despite Iran's claim to not be interested.

A spokesperson for the State Department said that Trump is conducting a campaign of "maximum press" against Iran, under which on Saturday the U.S. revoked a waiver allowing Iraq to pay Iran electricity.

Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said on Saturday that his country would not be pushed into negotiations. Florence Tan, Christopher Cushing, Michael Perry and Florence Tan are reporting; Christopher Cushing is editing.

(source: Reuters)