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OPEC Secretary general: Oil demand will continue to grow, but there is no peak in sight
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC secretary general, said that the growth in oil demand will continue to be robust for the next 25 years as the global population continues to grow. The organization predicts that the global energy demand will increase by 24% between now and 2050. Oil consumption is expected to exceed 120 million barrels of oil per day during this time period. This estimate is consistent with the World Oil Outlook 2024. Al Ghais, who spoke at the Global Energy Show, held in Calgary, Alberta, said that there was no imminent peak in oil demand. He said OPEC admired the efforts made by Canada's oil industry to increase its output of oil in recent years. OPEC has unwinded its production cuts faster than initially anticipated. Production for May, July and June increased by 411,000 barrels a day. Oil prices have been pushed up by the increases and concerns about President Donald Trump’s trade war affecting the global economy. On Tuesday, global Brent futures traded at $67.28 per barrel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday that it expects Brent oil prices to drop near $60 per barrel by the end the year and to average $59 per barrel next year. This will affect U.S. production of oil. Al Ghais said on Tuesday that OPEC also welcomed recent pushbacks against what he called unrealistic climate goals. He stressed the need to reduce emission but not to pick and choose energy sources.
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EIA: US oil production to drop next year
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday that U.S. crude production will decline next year due to lower commodity prices forcing drillers drop rigs sooner than expected. The EIA has predicted that crude oil production in the United States will fall to 13.37 million barrels a day in 2026 from 13.42 million barrels a day in 2018. The EIA had previously predicted that U.S. production would grow to 13,49 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. This is the first time the U.S. Department of Energy’s statistical arm has forecast a decline in U.S. crude oil production next year. It goes against President Donald Trump’s pledge to increase domestic energy production. The announcement comes amid growing concerns that the two-decade old U.S. shale boom has peaked. This is especially true as oil prices have fallen to multi-year-lows in recent weeks due to OPEC+'s easing supply restrictions and worries about the global economic arising from Trump’s erratic trading policies. The EIA has forecast that the world's total oil production will reach 104.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. This is an increase from the 104.1 million bpd it had predicted. The EIA expects that world oil production will average 105.1 millions bpd in 2019, down from the 105.4 million bpd it had predicted earlier. The EIA predicted that Brent crude oil will average $65.97 per barrel on the spot market this year and $59.24 per barrel next year. The EIA said that U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil will average $62.33 per barrel this year and $55.58 per barrel next year. Reporting by Shariq Khan and Scott DiSavino, New York; editing by Andrea Ricci
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EIA: Data centers will drive US electricity use to new highs by 2025 and '26.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Tuesday that data centers, which are power-hungry and provide computing power to artificial intelligence and crypto currencies, will drive U.S. electric consumption to new records in 2025 and in 2026. EIA projects that power demand will increase to 4,193 billion Kilowatt Hours (kWh) by 2025, and 4,283 kWh by 2026. This is a significant rise from the record 4,097 kWh of 2024. The United States is expected to increase its electricity consumption for heating and transportation, in addition to data centres. EIA estimates that by 2025, residential customers will consume 1,517 billion kWh of electricity. Commercial customers will consume 1,474 billion and industrial customers 1,055 billion. These forecasts are compared to the all-time records of 1,509 billions kWh for residential customers in 2022, and 1,434 trillions kWh for commercial customers in 2024. EIA predicted that natural gas would lose its share in power generation from 42% to 40% by 2025. Coal's percentage will remain at 16%, same as in 2024, and then decline to 15% by 2026 as renewables increase. According to the outlook, renewable energy will increase from 23% to 25% by 2025. Nuclear power will remain at 19% until 2026. EIA predicted that gas sales for residential customers would increase to 13,1 billion cubic feet (bcfd), 9.7 bcfd, for commercial customers, and 23.5 bcfd, for industrial customers. However, the EIA forecasted that power generation would fall to 35,9 bcfd. This compares to all-time records of 14.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 1996 for residential customers, 9.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2019 for commercial clients, 23.8 million cubic feet per day in 1973 for industrial consumers and 36.9 billion cubic foot in 2024 for electricity generation. (Reporting and editing by David Gregorio, Scott DiSavino)
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Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrates by 2027
Winston Chitando, the mines minister of Zimbabwe, said that Zimbabwe will ban exports of lithium concentrates in 2027. This is part of its efforts to increase local processing. Africa's leading producer of lithium (used in batteries that power renewable energy technologies) has banned the exportation of ore by 2022, and is pushing its miners to increase their domestic processing. Most of the lithium miners in Zimbabwe are from China. They export concentrates back to their country. Chitando stated that lithium sulphate plant are currently being developed in two Zimbabwean mines: Bikita Minerals owned by Sinomine, and Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe owned by Zhejiang Huangyou Cobalt. Lithium Sulphate is a product intermediate that can be refined to a battery grade material, such as lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. Chitando told the media after a weekly cabinet session that "because of the capacity in the country now, exports of all lithium concentrates would be banned by January 2027". Zimbabwe initially gave miners until March 2024 to develop plans for local refineries. However, after the price of lithium plummeted, it softened its position. Sinomine and Zhejiang Cobalt belong to a group of Chinese companies, including Chengxin Lithium Group Yahua Group, and Canmax Technologies. These firms have spent over $1 billion in the past 2021 on acquiring and developing lithium projects in Zimbabwe. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman, Jan Harvey, and Nelson Banya)
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The potato price hike is a major factor in the inflationary pain of Russia's poor.
In a farm near Moscow newly arrived Indian guest workers are planting potatoes and kale - work that is closely monitored by analysts from the central bank as they prepare to meet with board members in order to set interest rate. In developed countries such as the United States, food makes up about 14% or less of the basket that is used to calculate the inflation rate. However, in Russia, it can be as high at 40%. The rising prices of potatoes and other staples are a big reason for the tightening monetary policy. Even though the central bank cut its benchmark rate on June 6, it is still at the highest level since 2003. Inflationary expectations, which are a major driver of price pressures, remain high even though actual inflation has slowed down. The potato prices have tripled in the last year, when the crop was down by 12%. "It's crazy. The price of potatoes has always been low. "At this price, I won't buy them. I think very few people will," said Tamara a 67 year old pensioner in front of a Pyaterochka store discount in Moscow. Elvira Nabibullina, the governor of the Central Bank acknowledged the problem at her press conference following the rate reduction. She said, "People don't buy smartphones or televisions on a daily basis." "They buy food." "If prices are rising faster, this can lead to high inflation expectations." A study by Romir showed that Russian households spent 35% of their income on food last month, the highest in five years and a significant increase from 29% in April of 2013. POTATO CRISIS Pyaterochka offers Russian old-crop potatoes at 84 roubles (about $1.06) per kilogram and new-crop potatoes at 120 ($1.53), compared to an average of 43 roubles/kilo last year in retail stores. This is higher than the $0.92 per kilogram charged by Britain's largest supermarket chain Tesco. Prices of onions, cabbages, beets carrots and other ingredients in beetroot, a popular dish throughout Eastern Europe that is often used as a gauge for food inflation, are also up. Even President Vladimir Putin was caught off guard by the crisis. He had been praising Russia's agricultural growth and exports, despite Western sanctions, as a success, despite similar increases in butter and eggs earlier this year. In response, the government increased imports. Egypt tripled its potato supply to Russia while Belarus, Russia’s back-up potato supplier, announced that it was out of stock. STABILIZATION JULY The farmers blame the poor weather for the lower crop, but they also point out that the rising cost of fuel, machinery, fertilizers, and labour as well as the high interest rates are factors. Yaroslav Ilanov, the head of Sovkhoz Sergiyevsky Farm, said: "Last winter, it started out cold and then there was drought." The quality of the potatoes was below average. The potatoes of good quality were sold quickly and the situation started to worsen. He said that the high prices of this year helped compensate for some losses suffered by farmers following a bumper crop in 2023 when retail prices plummeted. The harvest this year is expected to better. Oksana LUT, Agriculture Minister said: "We'll see a drop in prices and a stabilization beginning July." TsMAKP, the think tank that advises the government on inflation, calculated the rate for the poor using basic food, utility and medicine costs, at 20% in April. This is ten percentage points higher than the official rate. TsMAKP stated that "the continued rapid rise in food prices led to a substantial divergence between price index for consumption baskets of low-income population and the overall inflation rates." In April, the average pension for the elderly was $298. Real terms, the pension fell for most of last year and then rose by 1.4% from 2025 onwards. Sergei Aleksashenko is a former central-bank official and an opposition economist who lives in exile in America. He pointed to pensioners and workers in the public sector. ($1 = 78.5000 roubles)
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Gold prices increase as traders watch US-China talks
The gold price rose on Tuesday as traders closely watched developments in the trade talks between China and the U.S. As of 10:15 am EDT (1415 GMT), spot gold rose 0.3%, to $3335.79 per ounce, and U.S. futures gold gained 0.1%, to $3357.50. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that there has been a consolidation of prices in recent weeks. This was largely due to central bank purchases and uncertainty. U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick reported that the talks were progressing well with China as both sides met in London for a second consecutive day, looking to reach a breakthrough over export controls which have threatened another rupture between the superpowers. The talks come after a temporary truce that was established in May, which halted new tariffs for 90 days. Israel sent its navy to strike Iran-backed Houthi target near the Red Sea Port of Hodeidah. It also threatened further action should the group continue its attacks against the Jewish state. China's central banks added gold to their reserves for the seventh consecutive month in May, according to official data released on Saturday. As a safe haven, gold thrives in times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Investors also eagerly await the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, which may provide important insights into future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. Spot silver fell 0.8% to $36.42 an ounce. After reaching its highest price since May 2021, platinum fell by 0.4% to $1214.29. Palladium fell by almost 1%, to $1 064.08. Alexander Zumpfe is a precious metals dealer at Heraeus Metals Germany. He said that the rally in platinum was supported by supply concerns, speculation, and an overall uplift within the precious metals sector. Palladium's lagging is due to its smaller demand base and lower investment appeal. Palladium, unlike platinum, lacks a compelling secondary demand story beyond auto catalysts. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)
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Pakistan increases its defence budget by 20%, but cuts overall spending in 2025-2026
Pakistan will increase its defence spending by 20% following a deadly conflict last month with India, but it will cut overall federal expenditure by 7% for fiscal 2025-2026 to 17.57 trillion Rupees ($62 billion). The budget that was presented by the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Shariff on Tuesday allocated 2,55 trillion rupees (about $9 billion) for defence from July 2025 to June 2026. This is an increase from the previous 2.12 trillion. The projected deficit was 3.9% of the GDP, compared to the target of 5.9% for 2024-25. The inflation was forecast at 7.5%, and the growth rate at 4.2%. South Asia wants to boost its growth and strengthen its defenses, after the worst fighting it has had with its neighbor in almost three decades. It also wants to meet the requirements of an International Monetary Fund financing programme. In a recent statement, Sharif stated that "after defeating India in conventional warfare, we now have to surpass them in the economic area." Pakistan is also facing the uncertainty caused by new import tariffs imposed by its largest export market, the United States. In April, 26 men were killed by Islamists in an attack against Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir. Islamabad has denied New Delhi’s claim that militants are backed by Pakistan. The four-day battle featured jets as well as missiles, drones, and artillery. Both India and Pakistan increase military spending The Pakistani allocation of 2,12 trillion rupees (roughly $7.45 billion) to defence in 2024-25 includes $2 billion for equipment, other assets and pensions. India's defense spending for its fiscal year 2025-26, (April-March), was set at 78.7 billion dollars, an increase of 9.5%. This includes pensions, and 21 billion dollars allocated to equipment. It has also indicated that it will increase defence spending. Sharif's Government has projected 4,2% economic growth for 2025-2026. It says it has stabilised the economy which was at risk of defaulting its debts until 2023. The growth rate for this fiscal year will likely be 2.7% compared to the budgeted 3.6%. Pakistan's economic growth is far behind that of the rest of South Asia. South Asian countries are expected to grow by 5.8% on average in 2024 and 6.0% according to the Asian Development Bank. The IMF had requested that the government complete the privatisation process of Pakistan International Airlines. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb confirmed this. The government has said that a drop in borrowing costs will help boost growth, following a series of interest rate reductions. However, economists warn that the monetary policy may not be sufficient to boost investment. Fiscal constraints and IMF mandated reforms are still holding back investment. Aurangzeb stated on Monday that his goal was to avoid the boom-and-bust cycles of old. He said: "The macroeconomic stability that we have achieved, we want to stay on course." This time, we're very clear about not wanting to waste the opportunity. $1 = 282.0000 Pakistani Rupees (Reporting and writing by Ariba, Saeed, and Asif in Islamabad, Charlotte Greenfield, and editing by Raju, YP Rajesh, and Kevin Liffey).
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World Bank cuts global growth forecast due to trade tensions
The World Bank lowered its forecast of global growth for 2025 on Tuesday by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%. It said that increased tariffs and uncertainty were a "significant" headwind for almost all economies. The bank's twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects Report shows that it has lowered its predictions for almost 70% of the world's economies, including the United States and China, Europe, and six emerging markets regions. This is a significant drop from its projections six months earlier, before Donald Trump became president. Trump has upended the global trade system with a series on-again-off-again tariff increases that have raised the effective U.S. Tariff rate from under 3% to its highest level in nearly a century. This has triggered retaliation from China and other countries. The World Bank has cut its forecast for growth as a result Trump's unpredictable trade policies. However, U.S. officials claim that the negative effects will be offset by an increase in investment and yet-to-be-approved tax cuts. The bank did not predict a recession but stated that global economic growth in this year will be the weakest since 2008, outside of a major recession. The bank did not predict a recession, but said that global economic growth this year would be its weakest outside of a recession since 2008. The report predicted that global trade growth would be 1.8% by 2025. This is down from 3.4% last year and a third less than the 5.9% in the 2000s. Forecast is based upon tariffs that were in place as of late may, including the 10% U.S. duty on imports. The forecast excludes the increases announced by Trump on April 9 and then delayed until that date to allow for negotiation. Tariff increases and tight labor markets are expected to keep global inflation at 2.9% by 2025. This is still above the pre-COVID level. The bank stated that "risks to the outlook for the global economy remain firmly to the downside." The bank said that its models indicated that an additional 10-percentage-point increase in U.S. average tariffs on top of the already implemented 10% rate, as well as proportional retaliation from other countries, would reduce the outlook by 0.5 percentage points for 2025. The report stated that such an increase in trade barriers could lead to "global trade stifling in the second half this year...accompanied by a widespread decline in confidence, rising uncertainty and turmoil on financial markets." It said that the risk of global recession was lower than 10%. "FOG ON RUNWAY" This week, top officials from China and the United States will meet in London to try and defuse an ongoing trade dispute. The dispute has expanded from tariffs and restrictions on rare earth minerals to include a global supply-chain shock and slower economic growth. "Uncertainty is a drag on the economy, just like fog on an airport runway." In an interview, Ayhan Kose, World Bank's Deputy Chief Economic Officer said that uncertainty slows down investment and clouds future prospects. He said that there are signs of increased trade dialogue, which could help to dispel any uncertainty. And supply chains were adapting, rather than collapsing, to the new global trade map. He said that global trade could grow by 2.4% in 2026, with artificial intelligence developments also boosting growth. He said, "We believe that the uncertainty will eventually decline." Once the fog lifts, trade may resume, but at a more moderate pace. Kose stated that while the situation could worsen, trade continued and China, India, and other countries were still providing robust growth. He said that many countries were discussing new trade agreements which could be profitable in the future. US GROWTH FORECAST CUT SHARPENLY The World Bank stated that the global outlook has "substantially deteriorated" since January. This is mainly because advanced economies are now expected to grow by only 1.2%, down a half-point, after growing 1.7% in 2024. The U.S. outlook has been lowered from 1.4% to 1.4% by a 0.9-percentage point drop, while the outlook for 2026 was reduced by 0.4-percentage points to 1.6%. The report said that rising trade barriers, "record high uncertainty" and an increase in financial market volatility would weigh on private consumption and trade. The growth estimates for the euro zone and Japan were both reduced by 0.3 percent points to 0.7%. The forecast for 2025 predicted that emerging markets and developing countries would grow by 3.8%, compared to the 4.1% growth in January. The report stated that poor countries would be the worst affected. The report said that by 2027, the per capita GDP of developing economies would be 6% lower than pre-pandemic levels. It could take two decades for these countries to recover the economic losses from the 2020s. Mexico's growth forecast was cut by 1.3 points, to 0.2%, in 2025. The country is heavily dependent on U.S. trade. The World Bank has left its China forecast unchanged, at 4.5%. It said Beijing had the monetary and fiscal room to support and stimulate its economy. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Shalal)
After a drop in approval, Brazilian leader Lula supports the autonomy of Petrobras and the central bank
Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, Brazilian President, on Thursday expressed support for non-interference by the government in monetary policies and pricing strategies of Petrobras (the state-owned oil giant), in remarks market-friendly that followed a decline in his approval rating.
Lula said at a recent press conference that, if any additional fiscal measures were needed, "we would consider them" in light of the growing concerns on the market about Brazil's increasing public debt.
Leftist leader says central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo did "what he felt was necessary" following policymakers
raised
The key interest rate was raised by 100 basis points on Wednesday to 13.25%.
Lula said Galipolo would be able to set conditions for interest rate reductions "at the right time" in his new role as the head of the central bank.
Petrobras has been accused of being a terrorist organization.
Consideration
Lula stressed the fact that it is the company's decision, and not the president, to decide on a hike in diesel prices. Petrobras doesn't have to inform me about fuel price changes. "If Petrobras feels it's important to make a change, they can," he said.
A Genial/Quaest poll
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This week, Lula's approval rating fell, with disapproval exceeding approval for the very first time in over two years. The reasons were rising food prices and concerns about increased taxes, as well as volatility on financial markets.
Lula, when asked what steps could be taken to reduce food inflation, ruled out any that would lead to a black-market. He said that the best thing to do was to increase production.
The Brazilian real recovered some of its earlier losses following Lula's comments, trading down 0.4% against U.S. dollars, while the benchmark Bovespa index continued to gain, rising by 1.8%. (Reporting and writing by Lisandra paraguassu, Marcela Ayres, editing by Gabriel Araujo & Paul Simao).
(source: Reuters)