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Dollar to rise for third consecutive month as Fed caution on rate increases boosts gold
Gold prices fell Friday as the dollar strengthened on fears of further Federal Reserve rate reductions, but bullion is still on course for its third consecutive monthly gain. As of 0240 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5%, at $4,004 an ounce. Bullion is up 3.9% this month. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery remained unchanged at $4,016.70 an ounce. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that the Fed Chairman's hawkish stance this week did not do gold any favors. The prospect of a December rate cut is now much less certain than previously believed, which has helped boost the dollar and made things more difficult for gold in terms of yield. Dollar index nears its highest level for three months compared to its rivals. This makes bullion expensive for holders of other currencies. The U.S. Central Bank cut interest rates on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point, for the second consecutive time in this year. This brings the benchmark overnight rate down to a range of target of 3.75%-4.00%. After comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, traders reduced their bets on the Fed cutting rates again in December at its next policy gathering. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the markets now price in a probability of 74.8% for a 25 basis-point reduction from the Fed by December. This compares with a chance of 91.1% a week earlier. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to reduce tariffs against China in exchange for Beijing crackingdown on illicit fentanyl trafficking. He also stated that the U.S. would resume its soybean purchases as well as continue exporting rare earths. SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings increased 0.42% on Thursday to 1,040.35 tonnes from 1,036.05 on Wednesday. Spot silver remained at $48.94 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.2% to 1,614.53, and palladium increased 1.7% to $1469.63. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Mrigank dhaniwala in Bengaluru)
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Sources say that Indian Oil purchases Russian crude oil from entities not sanctioned by the United Nations.
Indian Oil Corp, the top refiner in India, has purchased five cargoes from non-sanctioned companies for delivery in December. Traders said that India had resumed purchases despite Washington's pressure to stop purchasing Russian oil. Washington imposed sanctions last week on Rosneft, and Lukoil - the two largest Russian oil companies - in an effort to increase pressure on President Vladimir Putin for the end of the war in Ukraine. Since then, Indian refiners, including the state-run Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd., HPCL Mittal Energy Ltd. and Reliance Industries (the operator of the largest refining facility in the world) have stopped buying Russian oil. Anuj Jain is the head of finance at IOC. He has stated that his company will buy Russian oil as long as it is in compliance with the sanctions. The European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK) and the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia, including those that affect shipping, for its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. The sanctions forced Russia to offer its oil at steep discounts. India is now the largest buyer of Russian crude oil by sea. One of the sources in the trade said that IOC had purchased about 3.5 millions barrels of ESPO for delivery to an eastern Indian port by December at a price similar to Dubai's. One of the sources said that they did not know who the sellers were. IOC didn't immediately respond to an outside-of-working hours request for comment. The majority of Russian ESPO crude oil exports from Kozmino, a port on the Pacific coast, are usually shipped to China. The demand for ESPO crude from China has decreased after U.S. sanctioned state refiners stopped purchasing, and independent Chinese refineries have used up their import quotas. The price of ESPO has dropped, which makes it more attractive to Indian buyers.
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Iron ore prices fall on rising stocks and falling demand; weekly and monthly gains are expected
Iron ore futures fell on Friday due to dwindling Chinese demand and increasing inventories. However, hopes for a trade agreement between the two largest economies in the world kept prices on course for weekly and month gains. As of 0148 GMT on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most traded January iron ore contract fell 0.93% and was trading at 797 yuan (111.89 dollars) per metric ton. This is a rise of 3.3% for this week. As of 13.8 GMT, the benchmark December iron ore price on the Singapore Exchange dropped 0.61% to $100.8 per ton. This is a 2% increase for this week. Both benchmarks saw a gain of around 2% in the month of March on optimism for a trade agreement during a Thursday meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent, Xi Jinping. After the meeting, Trump stated that he and Xi had agreed to lower tariffs against China in exchange for Beijing crackingdown on the illicit fentanyl traffic, resuming U.S. soya bean purchases, and maintaining rare earths exports. First Futures analysts said that the macro-driven driving forces have receded since the Trump-Xi summit. Investors shifted their focus to the weakening fundamentals in the steel-making ingredient, as the macro boost was fully priced. Data from Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, dropped 1.5% on a week-on-week basis to 2,36 million tons by October 30. Portside inventories increased 0.8% during this period. A Friday official survey revealed that the decline in China's manufacturing activity for the seventh consecutive month, October, was also pushing up prices. Coke and coking coal, which are used to make steel, both rose by 1.04% apiece. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell 0.19%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.21%. Stainless steel dropped 0.43%. Wire rod gained 0.12%.
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Australian shares snap a three-day losing streak as Banks and miners drive the Australian share price upwards
Australian shares rose Friday, ending three consecutive sessions of losses. Banks and miners saw gains, while Origin Energy shares fell to a new two-month-low after the company reported a sequential decline in its first quarter revenue. By 0004 GMT, the S&P/ASX 200 Index had risen 0.5% to 8,930.80. The benchmark closed Thursday 0.5% lower. Origin, a power producer, was one of the biggest losers in the benchmark index after it reported a 12% decline in revenue from its stakes in the Australia Pacific LNG Project. This was due to lower LNG prices and volumes. The firm's shares fell 6.3% to A$11.81 in their lowest trading session since April 7. Separately shares of insurance broker Steadfast Group were the biggest losers on the benchmark index, dropping up to 18.9% to A$5.03, their lowest level since November 16, 2022. After the company's bell rang on Thursday, Robert Kelly, its CEO and managing director, announced that he would temporarily step down from his position while an investigation was conducted by an outside party into a complaint lodged against him. On the local stock exchange, the banks rose 0.8% while the "Big Four", which includes the four largest banks, rose between 0.1% to 1.3%. Gold miners rose on the backs of higher gold prices, which boosted their gains by 1.2%. The shares of gold miners Evolution Mining (up 3.5%) and Northern Star Resources (up 3.8%) rose respectively. JB Hi Fi continued to fall for the second consecutive session. The firm had posted on Wednesday a dramatic sequential decline in sales growth for its Australia and New Zealand segment in the first quarter. Shares of Mayne Pharma, a potential acquirer, fell to their lowest intraday performance ever after it was revealed that Australia's Treasurer would block the A$672 ($436.67$) takeover. The benchmark S&P/NZX50 index in New Zealand rose 0.4% to 13,509.0.
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Hastings, Australia, to negotiate an offtake agreement with Ucore on Yangibana Project
Hastings Technology Metals, an Australian company, announced on Friday that its Yangibana joint-venture project in Western Australia had agreed to negotiate a possible offtake agreement with Ucore Rare Metals Inc. of North America. The Yangibana project for rare-earths, niobium, and other metals is a joint-venture with Wyloo Metals of Andrew Forrest, who holds 60%, and Hastings Rare-Earths, which has the remaining 40% via its subsidiary Yangibana Jubilee. Hastings CEO Vince Catania said, "The joint assessment of a downstream Hydromet facility in the U.S. shows the efforts made by Wyloo Ucore and Hastings for accessing the financing and commercial opportunity arising from a rare-earths agreement recently announced by the U.S. government and Australian government to support jointly "ready to go "projects." The deal could cover up to 37,000 tonnes of high-grade rare earth concentrate per year, while both parties evaluate the feasibility of building an downstream hydrometallurgy facility in Louisiana. Hastings stated in a press release that the parties would work to execute a definitive agreement. This is expected be finalised by June 2026. If the current momentum continues, shares of the Australian developer of rare-earths could rise as high as 19.3% and reach A$0.68. This would be their best session in over a week.
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SK Innovation expects Q4 margins to be resilient
SK Innovation Co Ltd, the owner of South Korea’s largest refiner SK Energy said on Friday that it expects the refining margins to remain stable in the fourth-quarter amid global supply disruptions as well as the onset winter peak demand. The company reported an operating loss of 423 billion won in the period July-September, but a profit of 573 trillion won for that same period. This compares to an analyst's average forecast of 304 billion dollars in profit. The third-quarter revenue increased 16.3%, to 20.5 trillion won, from the same period last year. SK On, a battery supplier to Ford Motor Co., Volkswagen and Hyundai Motor, among others, increased its operating loss from 66.4 billion won to 124.8 billion in the third quarter. This was due to a slowdown in EV batteries shipments. SK Innovation stated in a press release that the performance of its battery unit in the third quarter was affected by lower sales of batteries, which were affected by the phase out subsidies for battery powered vehicles in the United States. In September, SK On entered into a contract with U.S. based Flatiron Energy Development for the supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP) for energy storage systems. This was its first order to use LFP batteries in ESS. SK's agreement echoes a growing trend of EV battery manufacturers expanding into energy storage to hedge against the slowdown in EV batteries demand. On Thursday, LG Energy Solution, SK On’s rival across the street from it in South Korea said that they expect U.S. EV batteries sales to decrease this year compared to a year earlier. After the earnings announcement, shares of SK Innovation rose 0.2%, compared to the benchmark KOSPI which grew by 0.3%.
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The strong dollar and ample supply of oil weigh on the price of crude oil, which is expected to fall for a third consecutive month.
The oil prices fell on Friday and are heading towards a third consecutive monthly decline as the stronger dollar has capped gains in commodities, while a rising global supply from major producers offsets the effect of Western sanctions against Russian exports. Brent crude futures fell 33 cents or 0.51% to $64.67 per barrel at 0027 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was $60.22 per barrel, down by 35 cents or 0.58%. In a recent note, ANZ analysts stated that a stronger USD impacted investor appetite for commodities. The greenback gained after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that a rate reduction in December is not guaranteed. Brent and WTI prices are expected to drop by about 3% this October, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers will be increasing production to gain market shares. The increased supply will also help to cushion the impact on Russian oil exports, which are currently restricted by Western sanctions. These include China and India. Sources familiar with the discussions said that OPEC+ was leaning toward a modest increase in output for December. The group will meet on Sunday. Eight OPEC+ member countries have increased their monthly production targets by a combined total of 2.7 million barrels a day - about 2.5% global supply – in a series. The data released by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative on Wednesday showed that crude exports in August from Saudi Arabia, which is the world's top oil exporter, reached a six-month record of 6.407 millions barrels per day. They are expected to continue rising. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA), in a report, also reported a record production of 13,6 million bpd for the week. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that China had agreed to start the process of buying U.S. Energy. He added that an extremely large transaction could take place regarding the purchase of oil from Alaska. Analysts are unsure whether the U.S. - China trade agreement will increase Chinese demand for U.S. Energy. Michael McLean, Barclays' analyst, said that Alaska produces less than 3% of the total US crude output. "We think Chinese purchases would likely be driven by market forces," he wrote in a Barclays note. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Florence Tan)
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Australian shares snap a three-day losing streak as Banks and miners drive the Australian share price upward
Australian shares rose Friday, ending three consecutive sessions of losses. Banks and miners saw gains, while Origin Energy shares fell to a new two-month-low after the company reported a sequential decline in its first quarter revenue. By 0004 GMT, the S&P/ASX 200 Index had risen 0.5% to 8,930.80. The benchmark closed Thursday 0.5% lower. Origin, a power producer, was one of the biggest losers in the benchmark index after it reported a 12% decline in revenue from its stakes in the Australia Pacific LNG Project. This was due to lower LNG prices and volumes. The firm's shares fell 6.3% to A$11.81 in their lowest trading session since April 7. Separately shares of insurance broker Steadfast Group were the biggest losers on the benchmark index, dropping up to 18.9% to A$5.03, their lowest level since November 16, 2022. After the company's bell rang on Thursday, Robert Kelly, its CEO and managing director, announced that he would temporarily step down from his position while an investigation was conducted by an outside party into a complaint lodged against him. On the local stock exchange, the banks rose 0.8% while the "Big Four", which includes the four largest banks, rose between 0.1% to 1.3%. Gold miners rose on the backs of higher gold prices, which boosted their gains by 1.2%. The shares of gold miners Evolution Mining (up 3.5%) and Northern Star Resources (up 3.8%) rose respectively. JB Hi Fi continued to fall for the second consecutive session. The firm had posted on Wednesday a dramatic sequential decline in sales growth for its Australia and New Zealand segment in the first quarter. Shares of Mayne Pharma, a potential acquirer, fell to their lowest intraday performance ever after it was revealed that Australia's Treasurer would block the A$672 ($436.67$) takeover. The benchmark S&P/NZX50 index in New Zealand rose 0.4% to 13,509.0.
Germany's election: polls, parties, and policy debates
Germany will hold an immediate national election on February 23 after the collapse of the three-way coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The main political parties, their polling positions, and key policy issues are listed below:
Parties
Germany has two "big-tent", centrist parties: Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats and the opposition Conservatives, an alliance between the Christian Democrats (CDU), and their Bavarian counterpart party, the Christian Social Union CSU.
In recent years, smaller parties like the Greens or Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, have gained ground.
All four parties, the SPD, Greens, Conservatives, and AfD, have candidates running for chancellor.
According to polls, the Free Democrats (FDP), Linke (a far-left party) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are also running. However, they are at risk of not reaching the 5% threshold for entering parliament.
According to the INSA survey released on February 8, the conservatives are leading the nationwide polls and have 29% of the vote, followed by AfD with 21%.
Scholz' SPD has fallen to third place from first in the election of 2021. The Greens are on 12%, and the BSW is on 6%. The FDP polls at 4%, and the Left at 5%
Analysts claim that polls can change quickly because voters are no longer as loyal to their parties. The conservatives were unable to maintain their lead in the 2021 campaign. They fell from the frontrunners to the runner-ups within a matter of months.
Friedrich Merz is a conservative leader who is prone to gaffes. He can also be quick to anger.
What are the key issues?
Ukraine
The mainstream parties in Germany are all for helping Ukraine repel Russia's invasion. However, the AfD/BSW wants to stop weapons deliveries to Kyiv as well as a return to good relations with Moscow.
Scholz and the SPD, however, have struck a more conservative tone recently, highlighting the importance of diplomacy, than the Greens, FDP and the Conservatives who all support the delivery of long-range Taurus rockets from Germany to Kyiv.
Reviving the Economy
Scholz proposes to encourage private investment and modernise infrastructure by creating a 100 billion euro fund that is off budget. Scholz' SPD plans to give businesses a 10% direct tax rebate on their equipment purchases.
Robert Habeck, a Green Party member, has called, as Scholz did, for a reform of Germany's constitutionally-enshrined "debt brake" to allow higher public expenditure.
Merz also indicated some openness towards a moderate reformation of the debt brake, but in his party's platform he pledged to keep it. Both the AfD (the Alternative for Germany) and the FDP (the Free Democratic Party) are staunch defenders against the public borrowing limit.
In the CDU/CSU's manifesto, they have proposed a wide range of financial relief to citizens and companies, including tax reductions on income and corporations, as well as lower electricity rates. The CDU/CSU have not stated how they would finance these.
The AfD is calling for Germany to abandon the euro and reintroduce its own currency, the Deutsche Mark. It also wants the country to leave the EU.
Migration
The public's concern over migration and security has been exacerbated by a series of violent attacks in Germany that are linked to foreign suspects. This has led to political parties demanding stricter immigration measures.
Merz broke a taboo by sponsoring a bill in support of the AfD after the latest attack on January 22. This was a break from the previous policy against working with the far right party.
He failed to get a majority of his own deputies to back the bill.
The conservative CDU, in general, has taken a more strict stance against immigration over the past few years. They have called for the deportation of asylum seekers, as well as limits on family reunions and naturalisations for refugees.
AfD, the anti-Islam and anti-migration party, has called for border closures and to deny asylum seekers their right to reunite with family. AfD senior members went further with their comments, and attended discussions between far-right activists on the deportation of millions of people from foreign countries including German citizens.
The SPD has a tougher stance on immigration, enforcing more strict border controls and increasing deportations.
The Greens, on the other hand, maintain an open policy in terms of asylum, and promote initiatives such as state-backed maritime rescues, simplifying processes for family reunion and enhancing integration.
- Energy
The high energy prices in Germany remain a major challenge for both households and businesses. They are also a key topic during the election campaign.
CDU, SPD, and Greens all agree that renewable energy can be expanded to reduce costs, but they differ in their financing strategies: The CDU proposes using higher CO2 certificates to lower network charges, while SPD and Greens favor debt-financed subsidies. The CDU, AfD and SPD also suggest assessing the return of nuclear power. This idea was rejected by Greens and SPD.
The AfD is against all renewable energy subsidies. It advocates unrestricted operation of coal-fired plants and the elimination of CO2 pricing in order to reduce consumer costs and increase energy security.
- Relationship with Trump
Germany is especially sensitive about the question of how to deal with the new administration led by Donald Trump who has already hinted at increased tariffs and reduced support for Europe. The U.S. is still Germany's main export market and security ally.
Scholz, the SPD candidate, has strongly reacted to Trump's remarks on Greenland, Canada and other countries. Merz, the conservative candidate, warned him against lecturing Trump, focusing instead on areas of potential cooperation, such as a possible EU-U.S. Trade Deal or joint China Strategy.
Habeck, a Greens member, said that the EU should stand united and engage in talks with Trump's administration. A trade war would ultimately be harmful to all parties.
All the major parties are sceptical about Trump's demands that European countries increase their defence spending to 5%. This is because Germany will struggle to maintain a 2% level after the special fund for military purposes runs out. Habeck has, however, already proposed a 3.5% increase.
AfD is the German party which has embraced Trump the most. Elon Musk's ally, Trump, has endorsed the AfD multiple times, resulting in a conversation between him and Alice Weidel, the party's candidate for chancellor. Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Maria Martinez. Editing by Angus MacSwan.
(source: Reuters)