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Germany's election: polls, parties, and policy debates

Germany's election: polls, parties, and policy debates

Germany will hold an immediate national election on February 23 after the collapse of the three-way coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The main political parties, their polling positions, and key policy issues are listed below:

Parties

Germany has two "big-tent", centrist parties: Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats and the opposition Conservatives, an alliance between the Christian Democrats (CDU), and their Bavarian counterpart party, the Christian Social Union CSU.

In recent years, smaller parties like the Greens or Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, have gained ground.

All four parties, the SPD, Greens, Conservatives, and AfD, have candidates running for chancellor.

According to polls, the Free Democrats (FDP), Linke (a far-left party) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are also running. However, they are at risk of not reaching the 5% threshold for entering parliament.

According to the INSA survey released on February 8, the conservatives are leading the nationwide polls and have 29% of the vote, followed by AfD with 21%.

Scholz' SPD has fallen to third place from first in the election of 2021. The Greens are on 12%, and the BSW is on 6%. The FDP polls at 4%, and the Left at 5%

Analysts claim that polls can change quickly because voters are no longer as loyal to their parties. The conservatives were unable to maintain their lead in the 2021 campaign. They fell from the frontrunners to the runner-ups within a matter of months.

Friedrich Merz is a conservative leader who is prone to gaffes. He can also be quick to anger.

What are the key issues?

Ukraine

The mainstream parties in Germany are all for helping Ukraine repel Russia's invasion. However, the AfD/BSW wants to stop weapons deliveries to Kyiv as well as a return to good relations with Moscow.

Scholz and the SPD, however, have struck a more conservative tone recently, highlighting the importance of diplomacy, than the Greens, FDP and the Conservatives who all support the delivery of long-range Taurus rockets from Germany to Kyiv.

Reviving the Economy

Scholz proposes to encourage private investment and modernise infrastructure by creating a 100 billion euro fund that is off budget. Scholz' SPD plans to give businesses a 10% direct tax rebate on their equipment purchases.

Robert Habeck, a Green Party member, has called, as Scholz did, for a reform of Germany's constitutionally-enshrined "debt brake" to allow higher public expenditure.

Merz also indicated some openness towards a moderate reformation of the debt brake, but in his party's platform he pledged to keep it. Both the AfD (the Alternative for Germany) and the FDP (the Free Democratic Party) are staunch defenders against the public borrowing limit.

In the CDU/CSU's manifesto, they have proposed a wide range of financial relief to citizens and companies, including tax reductions on income and corporations, as well as lower electricity rates. The CDU/CSU have not stated how they would finance these.

The AfD is calling for Germany to abandon the euro and reintroduce its own currency, the Deutsche Mark. It also wants the country to leave the EU.

Migration

The public's concern over migration and security has been exacerbated by a series of violent attacks in Germany that are linked to foreign suspects. This has led to political parties demanding stricter immigration measures.

Merz broke a taboo by sponsoring a bill in support of the AfD after the latest attack on January 22. This was a break from the previous policy against working with the far right party.

He failed to get a majority of his own deputies to back the bill.

The conservative CDU, in general, has taken a more strict stance against immigration over the past few years. They have called for the deportation of asylum seekers, as well as limits on family reunions and naturalisations for refugees.

AfD, the anti-Islam and anti-migration party, has called for border closures and to deny asylum seekers their right to reunite with family. AfD senior members went further with their comments, and attended discussions between far-right activists on the deportation of millions of people from foreign countries including German citizens.

The SPD has a tougher stance on immigration, enforcing more strict border controls and increasing deportations.

The Greens, on the other hand, maintain an open policy in terms of asylum, and promote initiatives such as state-backed maritime rescues, simplifying processes for family reunion and enhancing integration.

- Energy

The high energy prices in Germany remain a major challenge for both households and businesses. They are also a key topic during the election campaign.

CDU, SPD, and Greens all agree that renewable energy can be expanded to reduce costs, but they differ in their financing strategies: The CDU proposes using higher CO2 certificates to lower network charges, while SPD and Greens favor debt-financed subsidies. The CDU, AfD and SPD also suggest assessing the return of nuclear power. This idea was rejected by Greens and SPD.

The AfD is against all renewable energy subsidies. It advocates unrestricted operation of coal-fired plants and the elimination of CO2 pricing in order to reduce consumer costs and increase energy security.

- Relationship with Trump

Germany is especially sensitive about the question of how to deal with the new administration led by Donald Trump who has already hinted at increased tariffs and reduced support for Europe. The U.S. is still Germany's main export market and security ally.

Scholz, the SPD candidate, has strongly reacted to Trump's remarks on Greenland, Canada and other countries. Merz, the conservative candidate, warned him against lecturing Trump, focusing instead on areas of potential cooperation, such as a possible EU-U.S. Trade Deal or joint China Strategy.

Habeck, a Greens member, said that the EU should stand united and engage in talks with Trump's administration. A trade war would ultimately be harmful to all parties.

All the major parties are sceptical about Trump's demands that European countries increase their defence spending to 5%. This is because Germany will struggle to maintain a 2% level after the special fund for military purposes runs out. Habeck has, however, already proposed a 3.5% increase.

AfD is the German party which has embraced Trump the most. Elon Musk's ally, Trump, has endorsed the AfD multiple times, resulting in a conversation between him and Alice Weidel, the party's candidate for chancellor. Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Maria Martinez. Editing by Angus MacSwan.

(source: Reuters)