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Where do the US steel and aluminum come from?
U.S. president Donald Trump raised tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum on Monday by a substantial 25%, "without exceptions or exclusions", in an effort to help struggling industries in the United States. However, this move could also spark a Multi-front Trade War Here is a list of major trading partners that will be affected. A quarter of the steel used in America is imported. The bulk of this comes from Mexico and Canada, or other close allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Germany. China is the largest producer and exporter of steel in the world, but very little is shipped to the United States. In 2018, tariffs of 25% were imposed on Chinese steel, which effectively shut the market. Last year, China exported 508,000 tons of steel net to the U.S. This is 1.8% of all American steel imports. Aluminium The U.S. relies more on imports in the case of aluminium. Approximately half of the aluminum used in America is imported. The majority comes from Canada. Canadian imports topped the list of countries with 3.2 million tonnes in 2012. United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China are the next two largest importers, with 347,034 metric tons and 222,872 respectively. According to global standards, the U.S. aluminium smelting sector is small. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the total smelter capability in the United States was only 1.73% of global capacity.
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Climate-focused venture capital firm Junction Growth Investors raises 115 mln euros
Junction Growth Investors is an investment firm that funds companies working to combat climate change. On Tuesday, it announced raising 115 million Euros ($119.8 millions), which demonstrates the resilient appetite of investors in this sector. Even though President Donald Trump has ordered the United States not to participate in the Paris Climate Agreement, many funds continue to invest in green energy. Last month, Norway's $1.8 billion wealth fund expressed its commitment to renewable energies. Junction Growth Investors in Belgium said that Keeling Capital and BNP Paribas Private Equity were among the firms who participated in the fund-raising. The European Investment Fund of the EU, as well as the Belgian Growth Fund, also took part. Junction Growth Investors has backed companies such as Belgian grid company Ampacimon, and Portuguese Eneida. Both firms develop grids that aim to create low-emission neighborhoods. Climate change is a constant threat, with tangible effects on society and individual wealth. The energy transition isn't just about fighting climate change, said Dirk Dewals. He added that the opportunity presented by this technology is for Europe to become less dependent on carbon fuels, which are geopolitically sensitive. It also allows it to create a few European technology leaders who have global reach. Ampacimon has 50% of its order books in the United States.
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Trump tariffs and supply concerns dampen gains
The oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday, amid fears over Russian and Iranian supply of oil and threats of sanctions. This was despite concerns that trade tariffs would dampen the global economy. Brent crude futures rose 55 cents (0.72%) to $76.42 a bar by 0717 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 50 cents (0.69%) to $72.82. After three consecutive weeks of losses, both contracts saw gains in the previous session. "It is more financial driven, and the price means aversion than fundamental." Brent has gone from $80 per barrel in mid-January to $74 last week, so it's time to get back into the market," LSEG analyst Anh Pham explained. ANZ analysts stated in a recent research note that the rebound coincided with signs of tightening supply. ANZ analysts noted that Russian oil production in January fell below its OPEC+ quota, easing fears of an oversupply. The output fell to 8,962 million barrels a day (bpd), which is 16,000 bpd less than the levels approved under the production agreement. The U.S. sanctions imposed last month on tankers, producers, and insurers have caused significant disruptions in the shipping of Russian crude oil to China, India and other major crude oil consumers. Sanctions by the United States on networks that ship Iranian oil to China, after President Donald Trump re-instated his "maximum" pressure on Iranian oil exports in the last week, have added to supply concerns. Trump's latest tariff could reduce global growth and energy consumption. Trump raised the tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to the U.S. by 25%, "without any exceptions or exclusions", to help struggling industries. This could lead to a trade war with multiple fronts. Tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Brazil will affect millions of tonnes. Trump introduced additional 10% tariffs last week on China. Beijing responded with its own duties on U.S. imported goods, including a duty of 10% on crude. According to a survey, a majority economists who had previously predicted a rate cut in March, will also wait until the following quarter before cutting again. Under Trump's policies, the Fed is facing the threat of rising prices. Rates at higher levels could hinder economic growth and impact the growth of oil demand. A preliminary poll on Monday showed that U.S. crude and gasoline stocks were likely to have increased last week while distillate stockpiles probably fell. The American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30 pm. Tuesday, ET (2130 GMT), and a report from the Energy Information Administration due on Wednesday.
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South African rand weakens as markets focus on Trump's steel tariff impact
The rand of South Africa fell early on Tuesday, as traders assessed the impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs on imports such as steel and aluminum. These tariffs could spark a multi-fronted trade war. At 0727 GMT the rand was trading at 18.4725 per dollar. This is about 0.1% lower than its previous closing. Trump increased tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to 25%, "without any exceptions or exclusions", on Monday in an effort to boost production within the largest economy. ETM Analytics stated in a research report that South Africa will be "minimally affected". The note stated that "for now, USD-ZAR is likely to trade with caution and lack of direction until Trump's policy is understood and its implications can be quantified." Investors in South Africa will be looking at the December manufacturing data, due at 1100 GMT for signs of health and vitality. Economists surveyed by predict manufacturing output will fall 1.7%. Early deals showed that the benchmark 2030 government bond of South Africa was lower in price, and its yield increased by 1 basis point from 9.11% to 9,11%. The blue-chip Top-40 Index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange last traded around 0.4% lower. The shares of steel producer ArcelorMittal South Africa fell 2% on news of Trump's new tariffs. (Reporting and editing by Tannur Andersons, Ed Osmond, and Sfundo parakozov)
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Iron ore prices fall as Trump's tariffs counter any potential disruptions to supply
Iron ore futures lost their early gains on Tuesday, as the unrest over President Donald Trump's tariffs outweighed worries about weather-related disruptions to supply in Australia, a major supplier. The May contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange finished the daytime trading 1.1% lower, at 812 Yuan ($111.12), the lowest price since February 6. Earlier in the session, it reached the highest level since December 10, 2024 with 830.5 Yuan per ton. As of 0708 GMT the benchmark March iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 1.32%, to $105.75 per ton. It hit its highest price since October 16, 2020 at $107.65 per ton. Trump raised the tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum on Monday from a flat rate of 25% to a 25 percent rate "without any exceptions or exclusions". This was done to help struggling industries, but it also increased the risk for a multi-fronted trade war. Tariffs will be applied to millions of tonnes of steel and aluminium imports from Canada and Brazil. They also apply to South Korea, Mexico and other countries. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that the tariffs may weaken demand for ore if China's steel export markets are affected. Prices rose earlier than expected due to potential disruptions in supply. After a Bureau of Meteorology weather warning, the operator of Australia's port of iron ore export, Port Hedland (used by BHP Group and Fortescue, as well as billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting), had begun clearing ships from the Port. The traders said that this was after the top supplier Rio Tinto had cleared ships out of two ports in Western Australia last week. This contributed to a sharp drop in shipments for the period. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell, by 1.84% each and respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have lost ground. The price of rebar fell by 1.95%. Hot-rolled coil dropped 1.45%. Wire rod was down 1.41%. Stainless steel was down 1.05%. ($1 = 7.3076 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jackson, Lewis Jackson and Amy Lv)
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Tariffs on coal from the US to China are expected to increase US coal exports into India
Five industry officials have said that the United States will increase coal exports to India following China's tariffs on U.S. energy imports. This could lead to a decline in Australia and Russia’s market share in India. China's Finance Ministry announced last week that it would impose a 15% tax on the import of U.S. Coal. The officials claimed this could force U.S. miner to ship coal to India, the second largest coal importer in the world behind China. "Three U.S. shipments that were meant to go to China are now in India, and another 10 shipments are awaiting." "These are large capesizes, and this could further lower prices," Vasudev Pamnani, director of India's I-Energy Natural Resources said. Pamnani said at the Coaltrans India Conference on Monday that more U.S. imports of coal could impact Australia. The U.S. is a relatively small contributor to Chinese coal imports in volume terms. However, the value of the coking coal used by steelmakers has increased by almost a third, reaching $1.84 billion by 2024. Malcolm Roberts said that the tariffs could lead to more U.S. and Australian coal being shipped to China. In the last decade, Australia was India's dominant supplier of coking coal. It accounted for around 80% all shipments. In 2024, its share dropped to 62% as the United States, Russia and Mozambique supplied supplies to India. Australia may now be able to regain some market share in China, its main market. It was responsible for two-thirds or more of the coking coal imported by China before China banned such imports unofficially in 2021. Mongolia and Russia export the most coking coal to China. Chinese data show that the U.S. will account for 9% of China's coking coal imports in 2024. Australia is expected to make up 8%. Sethuraman N R, Sudarshan Varadhan and Barbara Lewis contributed to the report.
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South Korea's trade minister claims that Trump's steel tariffs will hit the profits of companies
South Korea's trade minister Cheong Inkyo said Tuesday that the 25% tariffs being imposed by President Donald Trump on imports of steel and aluminum, which are due to take effect in March, will reduce U.S. demand for steel and erode profitability among steel exporters. The tariffs, he said, may provide opportunities for Korean exporters to find new markets. South Korea will "actively" consider whether there are any room for negotiation with the United States on tariffs, even though Trump increased tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum on Monday to flat 25% "without exemptions or exceptions". Cheong spoke at a Seoul meeting with steel company officials. South Korean steelmakers continued to lose money on Tuesday. POSCO Holdings fell for the second day in a row, closing down by 0.8%. Dongkuk Steel Mill also dropped 0.9%, reaching a new low of three months, while the KOSPI index rose 0.7%. EXEMPTIONS FOR 2018 During Trump's first year in office, South Korea and the United States agreed to a duty-free annual steel quota that would average 70% of the volume shipped to the U.S. from 2015-17. South Korea became the first U.S. ally to receive an exemption from steel tariffs for an indefinite period of time. Citi reported that "we see room for negotiations with the second Trump Administration if necessary." Citi estimates that U.S. Steel Tariffs will negatively impact South Korea's GDP by around 0.1% to 0.2%. According to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute, South Korea was the fourth largest steel seller in the United States last year behind Canada, Mexico and Brazil. Reporting by Hyunjoo Ji, Hyunsu Yaim and Jihoon Le; editing by Ed Davies and Kate Mayberry
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Macquarie, Australia's Macquarie bank, joins other major US banks to leave global climate coalition
Macquarie Group, Australia's largest bank, announced on Tuesday that it was leaving the Net Zero Banking Alliance. The NZBA is a global group of banks working to achieve net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. Six major U.S. Banks - Goldman Sachs Wells Fargo Citigroup Bank of America Morgan Stanley JPMorgan and Bank of America - have left the alliance in the past few months. Macquarie didn't give a reason why it left the initiative. According to its website, the NZBA was formed in 2021 by the United Nations as a finance initiative. It consists of 134 financial institutions from 44 countries, with an asset total of $56 trillion. The other members of the alliance are HSBC, Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank, and Singapore's DBS Bank. Macquarie had earlier in the day said that it saw minimal exposure to disruptions in U.S. green-energy sector as a result of President Donald Trump’s executive orders which prohibit or suspend federal funding for sustainable energies initiatives. Macquarie will update its climate-related activities in its annual report, due in May 2025. (Reporting and editing by Varun H K in Bengaluru, Adwitiya Shrivastava from Bengaluru)
Germany's election: polls, parties, and policy debates
Germany will hold an immediate national election on February 23 after the collapse of the three-way coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The main political parties, their polling positions, and key policy issues are listed below:
Parties
Germany has two "big-tent", centrist parties: Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats and the opposition Conservatives, an alliance between the Christian Democrats (CDU), and their Bavarian counterpart party, the Christian Social Union CSU.
In recent years, smaller parties like the Greens or Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, have gained ground.
All four parties, the SPD, Greens, Conservatives, and AfD, have candidates running for chancellor.
According to polls, the Free Democrats (FDP), Linke (a far-left party) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are also running. However, they are at risk of not reaching the 5% threshold for entering parliament.
According to the INSA survey released on February 8, the conservatives are leading the nationwide polls and have 29% of the vote, followed by AfD with 21%.
Scholz' SPD has fallen to third place from first in the election of 2021. The Greens are on 12%, and the BSW is on 6%. The FDP polls at 4%, and the Left at 5%
Analysts claim that polls can change quickly because voters are no longer as loyal to their parties. The conservatives were unable to maintain their lead in the 2021 campaign. They fell from the frontrunners to the runner-ups within a matter of months.
Friedrich Merz is a conservative leader who is prone to gaffes. He can also be quick to anger.
What are the key issues?
Ukraine
The mainstream parties in Germany are all for helping Ukraine repel Russia's invasion. However, the AfD/BSW wants to stop weapons deliveries to Kyiv as well as a return to good relations with Moscow.
Scholz and the SPD, however, have struck a more conservative tone recently, highlighting the importance of diplomacy, than the Greens, FDP and the Conservatives who all support the delivery of long-range Taurus rockets from Germany to Kyiv.
Reviving the Economy
Scholz proposes to encourage private investment and modernise infrastructure by creating a 100 billion euro fund that is off budget. Scholz' SPD plans to give businesses a 10% direct tax rebate on their equipment purchases.
Robert Habeck, a Green Party member, has called, as Scholz did, for a reform of Germany's constitutionally-enshrined "debt brake" to allow higher public expenditure.
Merz also indicated some openness towards a moderate reformation of the debt brake, but in his party's platform he pledged to keep it. Both the AfD (the Alternative for Germany) and the FDP (the Free Democratic Party) are staunch defenders against the public borrowing limit.
In the CDU/CSU's manifesto, they have proposed a wide range of financial relief to citizens and companies, including tax reductions on income and corporations, as well as lower electricity rates. The CDU/CSU have not stated how they would finance these.
The AfD is calling for Germany to abandon the euro and reintroduce its own currency, the Deutsche Mark. It also wants the country to leave the EU.
Migration
The public's concern over migration and security has been exacerbated by a series of violent attacks in Germany that are linked to foreign suspects. This has led to political parties demanding stricter immigration measures.
Merz broke a taboo by sponsoring a bill in support of the AfD after the latest attack on January 22. This was a break from the previous policy against working with the far right party.
He failed to get a majority of his own deputies to back the bill.
The conservative CDU, in general, has taken a more strict stance against immigration over the past few years. They have called for the deportation of asylum seekers, as well as limits on family reunions and naturalisations for refugees.
AfD, the anti-Islam and anti-migration party, has called for border closures and to deny asylum seekers their right to reunite with family. AfD senior members went further with their comments, and attended discussions between far-right activists on the deportation of millions of people from foreign countries including German citizens.
The SPD has a tougher stance on immigration, enforcing more strict border controls and increasing deportations.
The Greens, on the other hand, maintain an open policy in terms of asylum, and promote initiatives such as state-backed maritime rescues, simplifying processes for family reunion and enhancing integration.
- Energy
The high energy prices in Germany remain a major challenge for both households and businesses. They are also a key topic during the election campaign.
CDU, SPD, and Greens all agree that renewable energy can be expanded to reduce costs, but they differ in their financing strategies: The CDU proposes using higher CO2 certificates to lower network charges, while SPD and Greens favor debt-financed subsidies. The CDU, AfD and SPD also suggest assessing the return of nuclear power. This idea was rejected by Greens and SPD.
The AfD is against all renewable energy subsidies. It advocates unrestricted operation of coal-fired plants and the elimination of CO2 pricing in order to reduce consumer costs and increase energy security.
- Relationship with Trump
Germany is especially sensitive about the question of how to deal with the new administration led by Donald Trump who has already hinted at increased tariffs and reduced support for Europe. The U.S. is still Germany's main export market and security ally.
Scholz, the SPD candidate, has strongly reacted to Trump's remarks on Greenland, Canada and other countries. Merz, the conservative candidate, warned him against lecturing Trump, focusing instead on areas of potential cooperation, such as a possible EU-U.S. Trade Deal or joint China Strategy.
Habeck, a Greens member, said that the EU should stand united and engage in talks with Trump's administration. A trade war would ultimately be harmful to all parties.
All the major parties are sceptical about Trump's demands that European countries increase their defence spending to 5%. This is because Germany will struggle to maintain a 2% level after the special fund for military purposes runs out. Habeck has, however, already proposed a 3.5% increase.
AfD is the German party which has embraced Trump the most. Elon Musk's ally, Trump, has endorsed the AfD multiple times, resulting in a conversation between him and Alice Weidel, the party's candidate for chancellor. Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Maria Martinez. Editing by Angus MacSwan.
(source: Reuters)