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Australia's largest takeover deals have fallen apart
After months of disagreements over terms and valuation, a consortium led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company withdrew on Wednesday its $18.7billion offer to purchase Australian gas producer Santos. The third failed bid by Santos in the last seven years highlights the difficulties in Australia in completing large transactions. Disagreements over valuations, shareholder approval thresholds, and regulatory risks have consistently derailed mega-deals. This is a list containing some of the largest failed mergers and purchases involving Australian companies in the last three years. ADNOC-SANTOS A consortium led Abu Dhabi's ADNOC has withdrawn its bid of $18,7 billion for Australia's Santos after commercial terms were not agreed. XRG (ADNOC's overseas division) pulled the offer, saying that "a number of factors when taken together have impacted the Consortium’s assessment of the Consortium’s indicative offer." Santos claimed that the consortium refused a fair risk sharing, which included taking responsibility for securing approvals from regulatory bodies and committing itself to gas supply and development in domestic markets. In June, the XRG consortium offered $5.76 per share. At that time, it was A$8.89. Santos' last price was A$6.74. BHP-ANGLO AMERICAN BHP Group of Australia, the largest mining company in the world, has withdrawn from its $49 billion offer to buy rival Anglo American by May 2024, after being rejected three times. Anglo's collapse was due to the structure of BHP’s deal. It required Anglo to separate its South African iron ore and platinum businesses. BHP's bid values Anglo shares at 29,34 pounds. Anglo American's last trading price was 25.18 pounds. WOODSIDE-SANTOS Early 2024, Australia's Woodside Energy (Australia) and its smaller rival Santos (Santos) ended their talks to form a global oil and natural gas giant worth up to A$80 billion. Sources claim that the talks failed because the two companies couldn't agree on the valuation level. BROOKFIELD ORIGIN ENERGY The joint bid of $10.6 billion by Canadian investment firm Brookfield and MidOcean Energy to take over Origin Energy in Australia failed in 2023 after only 69% shareholders voted for the deal. This was below the 75% threshold. Brookfield was offering A$9.53 per share. Origin's last price was A$12.41. ALBEMARLE LIONTOWN RESOURCES Albemarle, a U.S. miner, backed out of a buyout offer for Australian lithium developer Liontown Resources worth A$6.6 billion (4.39 billion dollars) in 2023 due to "growing complexity" surrounding the transaction. Albemarle offered A$3 per share. Liontown's last share price was 91 Australian cents. KKR RAMSAY HEALTHCARE After talks stalled, a group led by the private equity firm KKR & Co retracted a bid of nearly $13 billion for Australian hospital operator Ramsay Health Care. Ramsay claimed that the KKR Group had cited the weak performance of the company when deciding to not sweeten the offer. According to sources, KKR was unable to access the accounts of Ramsay Sante's European division to perform due diligence. KKR offered A$88 per share. Ramsay's last trade was at A$32.95.
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Under planned reforms, investors in Vietnam will be subject to strict police screening
A draft decree states that investors in Vietnam's energy, telecommunications and construction sectors will have to get police approval before they can proceed with their projects. This is part of a major reform designed to increase security and guarantee the "absolute authority" of the ruling Communist Party. The text of the proposed public security ministry proposal, which is subject to change, could increase the compliance costs for businesses in Southeast Asia while also significantly increasing the power of the security apparatus. The proposal, published on the website of the Ministry of Security, stated that "in socio-economic development security must be assured, without sacrificing the national interest for economic benefits." Other ministries are invited to comment until September 22, 2009. The prime minister could sign it into law if no major changes were requested. Vietnam, a country that is heavily dependent on exports and foreign investors, conducts only limited security checks for most development projects. The police are primarily consulting in this regard. If approved, it is not clear how widely the new rules will be implemented and whether they will only apply to future projects. In a separate explanation, the ministry stated that the new provisions are necessary in order to cope with an increasingly complex international environment dominated by strategic rivalry aimed at "increasing the spheres of influence of powerful countries," but did not specify which nations. The ministry didn't respond to a comment request. In a communist-run Vietnam, the police play an important role that goes beyond security. They have a significant influence on the legislation, and their interests in economics are growing. To Lam, the party leader and Vietnam’s most powerful man before he became the president, was the head of the security ministry. Separately the army is responsible for a variety of businesses including banks and Viettel, the country's largest telecom operator. The proposed reform would grant the security ministry the authority to evaluate development projects for critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants and telecommunications and satellite services that involve foreign participation, ports, and oilfields on the basis of security. SpaceX and Amazon, two U.S.-based companies, plan to launch satellite communication services in Vietnam. POLICE TO VET GOLF PROJECTS According to the draft document, even less-critical operations, such as industrial parks and golf clubs, would require the approval of the Ministry. Vietnam Golf Association reports that the country plans to expand from its current nearly 100 golf courses. Donald Trump's family business is working with a local developer to build a large resort near Hanoi. The country also hosts large industrial operations of multinationals such as South Korea's Samsung Electronics and Japan's Honda, who are drawn to the low cost of labour but sometimes express concerns about slow project approvals. According to the proposal, the ministry will, with support from national and local police, determine whether or not security conditions, yet to be defined, are met before projects, including those that involve foreign investors, can proceed. Unnamed legal consultant in Vietnam, who spoke more freely because he did not want to be identified, said that the decree effectively gave the police the right to veto any project. He also noted that some companies expressed concern about the draft document as they feared it would increase compliance costs and cause delays. The other corporate, diplomatic, and legal representatives that we contacted about the draft rule declined to comment. Some refused to speak on the matter due to the sensitive nature or lack of clarity surrounding the proposed rule. The document states that the proposal will include a mechanism for the security ministry to oversee and inspect foreign aid and "to assess comprehensively the impact on security, social stability and safety of foreign-invested project, implemented in key localities and regions, where many workers and labourers live." In 2019, a similar decree was issued to ensure that defence priorities are taken into consideration for economic projects. However, it gave the Army less explicit powers and was limited in scope. Reporting by Francesco Guarascio, Khanh Vu and Shri Navaratnam.
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There are Fed Weeks where decades occur.
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Vladimir Lenin said that just as there can be decades without any action, there can also be weeks in which decades are active. Central banking is also a busy area, but it's not as busy as the central bank. Markets are digesting U.S. Central Bank's actions, as the Federal Open Market Committee delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point cut in rates on Wednesday. Only new Governor Stephen Miran disagreed with a 50 bps rate cut. Scorecards for those who want to know: the Bank of Canada cut and the People's Bank of China held. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority was forced to follow the Fed. After Wall Street's stumble, Asian markets bought into the dip Thursday, sending S&P500 e-minis and Nasdaq Futures 0.7% higher. This risk-on attitude is expected to continue in Europe where the pan-regional futures are up 0.6% and German DAX Futures are up 0.7%. FTSE Futures are also 0.2% higher. The bond markets have also recovered after a slight pullback. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4,068% from its U.S. closing of 4,076% on Tuesday. The dollar held steady at 97.024 after recovering from a three-and-a-half-year low. Gold fluctuated, with gains and losses. It hit an air pocket, after reaching a record-high on Wednesday. The last price of bullion was $3,659.40. Even with the Fed's return to an easing cycle and the sugar rush that comes along with it, the growth concerns are always there. New Zealand shares and the Kiwi dollar fell after economic data that was worse than expected, and Australian stocks also dropped following the release of lower-than-expected employment market statistics. Santos shares fell as much as 13.6 percent after ADNOC, a consortium led from Abu Dhabi, canceled its bid of $18.7billion for the gas company. The consortium said that commercial terms couldn't be agreed. Brent crude dropped 0.2% to $67.84 a barrel. Despite all the drama, MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan has traded flat. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. Earnings of corporations Next, Embracer Group and Auto Trader Group Central bank decisions UK: Bank of England Economic Data UK GfK Consumer Confidence for September France debt auctions: 3 year, 5 year, 8-year 9-year and thirteen-year government bond auctions
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Oil prices drop amid concerns over the US economy and market oversupply
The oil price fell for a second time on Thursday after the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates, as was expected. Traders focused on the U.S. economic situation and the excess supply. Brent crude futures dropped 13 cents or 0.19% to $67.82 per barrel at 0417 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures fell 18 cents or 0.28% to $63.87. In response to signs of weakness on the job market, the Fed lowered its policy rate a quarter percentage point by Wednesday. It also indicated that it would lower borrowing costs steadily over the remainder of the year. Low borrowing costs usually boost oil demand and drive prices higher. But the recent move and the hint that there will be two more cuts in this year were already priced into the market, according to Priyanka Sahdeva, a Phillip Nova senior analyst. She said that Powell's message of negativity, the Fed chair, was what caught markets' interest. He emphasized weakening employment markets and sticky inflation, making the cuts look more like risk management than demand boosters. Claudio Galimberti is the chief economist at Rystad and the global director of the market analysis. He wrote a note to clients that the Fed's intention to cut rates further indicates the policymakers' assessment of the economic risk from unemployment as being higher than the inflationary threat. The market was also affected by the persistent oversupply of oil and the soft fuel demand from the United States, the largest oil consumer in the world. The U.S. crude stockpiles declined sharply in the last week, as imports plunged to a new record low and exports surged to near two-year levels, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. The market was expecting a 1 million barrel increase in stockpiles. A 4 million barrel rise, however, has raised concerns about the demand in this world's largest oil consumer, and pushed prices up. (Reporting from Katya Glubkova in Singapore and Siyi LIU; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue).
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Iron ore prices fall on a weak China demand. Pre-holiday stocking helps limit losses
Iron ore futures prices fell on Thursday due to a lack of demand in China's infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. However, inventory replenishment before the Chinese National Day holiday helped limit losses. As of 0255 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was down by 0.12% to 800 yuan (about $112.57) per metric ton. On the Singapore Exchange, September benchmark iron ore traded at $105.25 per ton. This is a 0.19% decrease. According to Chinese broker Galaxy Futures, on the demand side, both manufacturing and infrastructure investments continued to show negative growth year-over-year in August. Meanwhile, end-use demand for steel fell dramatically in the third quarter compared to the 7% increase year-over-year in manufacturing steel consumption during the first half. Galaxy said that the iron metals sector could benefit from the upcoming replenishment of inventories ahead of Chinese National Day holiday. Hot metal production, which is a measure of demand for iron ore, has increased from month to month to 2,4055 million tonnes, according to Everbright Futures. China's crude iron ore production in August was 8.8% higher than the previous year, at 81.63 millions metric tons. Meanwhile, shipments of the top producer Brazil increased during the third quarter. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency compared to six major counterparts, dropped to its lowest level since February 2022 after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. However, it rebounded and now stands at 97.074. Dollar-denominated investments are less affordable for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Coking coal and coke, which are used in the steelmaking process, have both fallen by 0.89% and 0.26 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in all steel benchmarks. Hot-rolled coils fell 0.65%, rebar dropped 0.51%, wire rod fell 0.24%, and stainless steel declined 0.19%.
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TotalEnergies Secures Four Exploration Permits Offshore Liberia
TotalEnergies has signed four Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) for exploration blocks offshore Liberia, which were awarded following the 2024 Direct Negotiation Licensing Round organized by the Liberia Petroleum Regulatory Agency.The agreements were signed for the blocks LB-6, LB-11, LB-17 and LB-29, covering an area of approximately 12,700 square kilometers.The blocks are located in the south of the Liberia Basin. The work program includes acquiring one firm 3D seismic survey.“TotalEnergies is enthusiastic to be part of the resumption of exploration activities in offshore Liberia. Entering these blocks aligns with our strategy of diversifying our Exploration portfolio in high-potential new oil-prone basins.“These areas hold significant potential for prospects that have the potential for large-scale discoveries that lead to cost-effective, low-emission developments, leveraging the company’s proven expertise in deepwater operations,” said Kevin McLachlan, Senior Vice-President Exploration at TotalEnergies.
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Australia's 2035 emission reduction target is lower than expected at 62%-72%
Australia set a target for 2035 to reduce emissions by 62%-70% compared to 2005, which is lower than the figure initially suggested by Australia's climate authority. The United Nations has requested that countries It is important that all countries submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) before the end September to allow their efforts to be evaluated before the COP30 Summit in Brazil in November. Australia's resources industry is largely responsible for its high pollution levels per capita. The target is below the range of 65-75% suggested initially by the Climate Change Authority (an independent body that advises government policy on climate change) and modelled by Treasury. "The target should be both ambitious and realistic." "A target above 70% is not feasible, this advice is clear. We have chosen the highest level of ambition possible," Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said at a Thursday news conference. The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced A$5 Billion ($3.32 Billion) in funding for industrial facilities to decarbonise as well as A$2 Billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation of Australia to continue to push down electricity prices. Albanese stated in a press release that "we are not the largest polluter nor the biggest economy, but our commitment to climate change action matters." It matters to us, to our neighbors, to our economy and to the country we leave to our children. The United Kingdom announced that it would be the most ambitious country in terms of climate targets, with a reduction of 78% compared to 2005. (1 Australian dollar = $1) (Reporting and editing by Kim Coghill, Christian Schmollinger, and Alasdair Pala in Sydney)
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As traders evaluate Fed outlook after rate cut, stocks rumble
The global stock markets were choppy Thursday, after the Federal Reserve announced its first rate reduction this year. However, the Fed signaled a measured approach for further monetary policy ease. This left investors uncertain about the pace of future movements. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1%, as the benchmark was impacted by declines in New Zealand and Australia markets. Chinese stocks fluctuated between gains and losses. However, there were signs of strength on some markets. U.S. stock futures rose 0.4% following a mixed session overnight on Wall Street, while South Korean shares soared by 0.8%, and Taiwanese stocks climbed 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei 225 tacked on 1%. The global stock market fell on Wednesday, after reaching a record-high in response to the Fed's quarter point rate cut. It also indicated that it would continue to lower borrowing costs throughout the remainder of this year. In his post-meeting remarks, Fed chair Jerome Powell temperated the more aggressive expectations of easing in the markets. He said that Wednesday's action was a risk management cut, and the central banks did not have to act quickly on rates. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that the decision made and the tone of the press briefing were both balanced and restrained. They weren't at all dovish. Investors were sceptical about Powell's projections of higher inflation and stronger U.S. growth. These doubts fueled overnight trading in the U.S., as the S&P 500 closed down and the Nasdaq Composite fell. Only Stephen Miran, the new Fed Governor who joined on Tuesday, voted against a 50-basis-point cut. The currency markets are also indecisive. After the rate announcement, the U.S. Dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022 against a basket major counterparts at 96.224. However, it rose 0.1% on Thursday to reach 97.089. The euro was stable at $1.181, after an immediate reaction to the Fed's announcement caused it to rise to its highest level since June 2021. The Chinese Yuan was unchanged at 7,103 on Thursday after China's central banks left the borrowing costs of its reverse repurchase agreements for seven-day periods unchanged, refusing to follow the Fed. The pound fell 0.1% to $1.3621 after briefly reaching its highest level since July 2, at $1.3726, on Wednesday. It is expected that the Bank of England's policy decision will be announced later on Thursday. Rates are likely to remain at 4%. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in an 87.7% probability of another 25-bp reduction at the Fed’s next meeting in November, compared with a 74.3% likelihood a day before. Shane Oliver is the chief economist at AMP and head of investment strategies in Sydney. He said that while "the Fed continues to signal more rate cuts", it still expects a good growth. This is a combination which is positive for share markets. He added, "I think the gains are going to be limited as the markets already rallied in anticipation of a Fed rate cut and they're due for a pause or a near-term corrective." Bank of Canada reduced its key rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to a low of 2,5%, a level not seen in three years. This was the first time in six months that the Bank had cut the rate. The Bank said it would cut the rate again if the risks to the economy increased over the next few months. GROWTH CONCERNS S&P/NZX50 dropped by 0.9% in New Zealand after data revealed a worse than expected economic contraction for the second quarter. The kiwi currency fell 0.7% against greenback. The Australian market did not fare much better. It fell 0.6%, led by a drop of up to 13.6% in the shares of gas producer Santos after a consortium headed by Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC canceled its $18.7-billion bid for the firm, claiming that commercial terms couldn’t be agreed. After the release of softer-than-expected August labour market data, the Australian dollar fell 0.2%. Full-time employment dropped unexpectedly after a sharp increase the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Kerry Craig, global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Melbourne, says that the data could cause a weakness in the Australian Dollar, which recently gained strength due to hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia. He said that the bank was still expecting a rate reduction in November. After a slight pullback on Tuesday, bond markets rallied. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.0718% from its U.S. closing of 4.076%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which increases with traders' expectation of higher Fed Funds rates, increased a bit to 3.5385%. Gold prices rose 0.1%, to $3662.33 an ounce. This is a recovery from the dip that occurred after Wednesday's record high. Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.5% to $67.62 a barrel.
Germany's election: polls, parties, and policy debates
Germany will hold an immediate national election on February 23 after the collapse of the three-way coalition led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The main political parties, their polling positions, and key policy issues are listed below:
Parties
Germany has two "big-tent", centrist parties: Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats and the opposition Conservatives, an alliance between the Christian Democrats (CDU), and their Bavarian counterpart party, the Christian Social Union CSU.
In recent years, smaller parties like the Greens or Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, have gained ground.
All four parties, the SPD, Greens, Conservatives, and AfD, have candidates running for chancellor.
According to polls, the Free Democrats (FDP), Linke (a far-left party) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are also running. However, they are at risk of not reaching the 5% threshold for entering parliament.
According to the INSA survey released on February 8, the conservatives are leading the nationwide polls and have 29% of the vote, followed by AfD with 21%.
Scholz' SPD has fallen to third place from first in the election of 2021. The Greens are on 12%, and the BSW is on 6%. The FDP polls at 4%, and the Left at 5%
Analysts claim that polls can change quickly because voters are no longer as loyal to their parties. The conservatives were unable to maintain their lead in the 2021 campaign. They fell from the frontrunners to the runner-ups within a matter of months.
Friedrich Merz is a conservative leader who is prone to gaffes. He can also be quick to anger.
What are the key issues?
Ukraine
The mainstream parties in Germany are all for helping Ukraine repel Russia's invasion. However, the AfD/BSW wants to stop weapons deliveries to Kyiv as well as a return to good relations with Moscow.
Scholz and the SPD, however, have struck a more conservative tone recently, highlighting the importance of diplomacy, than the Greens, FDP and the Conservatives who all support the delivery of long-range Taurus rockets from Germany to Kyiv.
Reviving the Economy
Scholz proposes to encourage private investment and modernise infrastructure by creating a 100 billion euro fund that is off budget. Scholz' SPD plans to give businesses a 10% direct tax rebate on their equipment purchases.
Robert Habeck, a Green Party member, has called, as Scholz did, for a reform of Germany's constitutionally-enshrined "debt brake" to allow higher public expenditure.
Merz also indicated some openness towards a moderate reformation of the debt brake, but in his party's platform he pledged to keep it. Both the AfD (the Alternative for Germany) and the FDP (the Free Democratic Party) are staunch defenders against the public borrowing limit.
In the CDU/CSU's manifesto, they have proposed a wide range of financial relief to citizens and companies, including tax reductions on income and corporations, as well as lower electricity rates. The CDU/CSU have not stated how they would finance these.
The AfD is calling for Germany to abandon the euro and reintroduce its own currency, the Deutsche Mark. It also wants the country to leave the EU.
Migration
The public's concern over migration and security has been exacerbated by a series of violent attacks in Germany that are linked to foreign suspects. This has led to political parties demanding stricter immigration measures.
Merz broke a taboo by sponsoring a bill in support of the AfD after the latest attack on January 22. This was a break from the previous policy against working with the far right party.
He failed to get a majority of his own deputies to back the bill.
The conservative CDU, in general, has taken a more strict stance against immigration over the past few years. They have called for the deportation of asylum seekers, as well as limits on family reunions and naturalisations for refugees.
AfD, the anti-Islam and anti-migration party, has called for border closures and to deny asylum seekers their right to reunite with family. AfD senior members went further with their comments, and attended discussions between far-right activists on the deportation of millions of people from foreign countries including German citizens.
The SPD has a tougher stance on immigration, enforcing more strict border controls and increasing deportations.
The Greens, on the other hand, maintain an open policy in terms of asylum, and promote initiatives such as state-backed maritime rescues, simplifying processes for family reunion and enhancing integration.
- Energy
The high energy prices in Germany remain a major challenge for both households and businesses. They are also a key topic during the election campaign.
CDU, SPD, and Greens all agree that renewable energy can be expanded to reduce costs, but they differ in their financing strategies: The CDU proposes using higher CO2 certificates to lower network charges, while SPD and Greens favor debt-financed subsidies. The CDU, AfD and SPD also suggest assessing the return of nuclear power. This idea was rejected by Greens and SPD.
The AfD is against all renewable energy subsidies. It advocates unrestricted operation of coal-fired plants and the elimination of CO2 pricing in order to reduce consumer costs and increase energy security.
- Relationship with Trump
Germany is especially sensitive about the question of how to deal with the new administration led by Donald Trump who has already hinted at increased tariffs and reduced support for Europe. The U.S. is still Germany's main export market and security ally.
Scholz, the SPD candidate, has strongly reacted to Trump's remarks on Greenland, Canada and other countries. Merz, the conservative candidate, warned him against lecturing Trump, focusing instead on areas of potential cooperation, such as a possible EU-U.S. Trade Deal or joint China Strategy.
Habeck, a Greens member, said that the EU should stand united and engage in talks with Trump's administration. A trade war would ultimately be harmful to all parties.
All the major parties are sceptical about Trump's demands that European countries increase their defence spending to 5%. This is because Germany will struggle to maintain a 2% level after the special fund for military purposes runs out. Habeck has, however, already proposed a 3.5% increase.
AfD is the German party which has embraced Trump the most. Elon Musk's ally, Trump, has endorsed the AfD multiple times, resulting in a conversation between him and Alice Weidel, the party's candidate for chancellor. Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Maria Martinez. Editing by Angus MacSwan.
(source: Reuters)