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Copper and base metals benefit from the softer dollar
The dollar fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain a stable interest rate. The benchmark three-month copper price on the?London Metal Exchange rose 0.75% to $13,676 per metric tonne by 0730 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.1% to 104 690 yuan (15,492.25 dollars) per ton. Dollar falls to one-week lows as markets assess possible Fed interest rate paths following Wednesday's policymakers' vote to maintain rates. A cheaper ?dollar can boost greenback-denominated commodities by making them more affordable for buyers using other currencies and ?higher interest rates can weigh on growth-dependent commodities by dampening economic activity. According to CME Group's FedWatch, the markets now price in a 58% chance that a rate increase will occur in September. This is down from an 81% chance?before this policy statement? Red metal also benefited from the pressure on inventories, concerns about supply and demand coming from China. Stocks of copper at LME registered warehouses On Wednesday, the number of available stock grew to 101,975 tonnes, after some material was returned to warrant. This halted a drop that saw stocks drop by 4.83% from Wednesday to Wednesday. Aluminium prices, however, continued to rise, with a 0.05% increase on the LME and 1.03% growth on the SHFE. The Middle East is a major producer of light metals. Continued fighting there has impacted the supply. LME stocks of Aluminium The majority of remaining stocks are of Russian origin which many traders avoid. Other LME metals include zinc, which gained 0.22%. Lead ticked up?0.05%, while nickel fell 0.1%. Tin also gained 0.53%. Nickel gained 0.66%, and tin gained 0.46%.
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Israeli strikes kill three people in Gaza including two children amid new ceasefire
Health officials reported that Israeli strikes in Gaza Strip killed three people including two children on Thursday. Meanwhile, mediators were holding 'new' talks with Hamas leaders, to help implement the U.S.-brokered Gaza Peace Plan. Medical personnel said that an Israeli airstrike in Khan Younis south of the enclave killed a boy and a girl aged eight. Medical personnel reported that an Israeli airstrike in Bureij Refugee Camp, central Gaza Strip, killed an 18-month old child and injured at least eight others. Both strikes were said to have targeted Hamas militants by the Israeli military. Gaza's health officials report that the latest deaths bring to more than 1,200 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks, most of them civilians, since the ceasefire went into effect. Hamas doesn't usually reveal its losses. The ceasefire has stopped the full-scale fighting, but not the near-daily Israeli strikes. In the same time period, militants in Gaza have killed four Israeli soldiers. CAIRO TALKS Hamas leaders met in Cairo with mediators from Egypt?, Qatar?and Turkey to discuss the implementation of President Donald Trump’s Gaza Plan, which was presented by his Board of Peace. The plan included a massive increase in humanitarian assistance, a civilian Palestinian government, Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a multinational force to maintain security. The progress of the previous months has been stagnant. Hamas' official stated on Thursday that the group would be coming up with a positive and good response. However, he did not say if the group had agreed to disarm fully -- a key sticking point in the negotiations over the last four months. Hamas demands that Israel commits to stopping its attacks on Gaza, and withdrawing all of its forces. Hamas sources said that the group would "confine" and?store heavy weapons in a Palestinian authority, but not give them to Israel. Hamas did not comment on that. Israel and the Board for Peace have not yet made a decision on the fate of personal or light weapons, or whether Israel will accept the new Hamas position. The Board of Peace has declined to comment immediately on the Cairo discussions. Israel wants Hamas?to cede its power completely in Gaza, and to disarm fully. Hamas disbanded a de-facto Gaza government in the last month, but maintained a caretaking group to ensure vital services were provided to residents. Israel controls approximately?64% (or a little more) of the small coastal Gaza Strip that was bombed into ruins by Israel's 2-year military campaign following a Hamas attack in 2023 on southern Israel. Hamas controls Gaza, where nearly all its 2 million residents live in a tiny sliver on the coast. They are mostly living in tents, or in damaged buildings, and face dire living conditions. Reporting by Nidal Al-Mughrabi, editing by Gareth Jones
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Outokumpu's Q2 profit forecast is behind the original due to costs.
Outokumpu's shares fell 10% on Thursday after it reported a core profit for the second quarter that was below market expectations. The European stainless steel demand has remained largely unchanged, and increased costs have offset increases in volume and pricing. The adjusted earnings of the Finnish company before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation in the April-June quarter rose by 33%, but they were still below the EUR114 million consensus forecast provided by the company. Outokumpu's profitability in Europe, its largest business unit, was broadly stable, as positive effects from higher volumes and a higher selling price were offset by a less favorable product mix and increased variable costs. The report said that the conflict in the Middle East had a limited direct impact on the market and was mainly due to higher freight costs. However, it also added that the uncertainty created by the conflict increased. The company's core result in Europe increased to EUR17 million, up from EUR16 million last year. However, this was just marginally higher than the EUR16 millions it reported the previous year. European steel producers, who have been under pressure for years by low domestic demand, high energy prices and cheap Asian imports, are now set to benefit from stricter import quotas on steel and a carbon tax at the border of the European Union. Outokumpu CEO Kati Ter Horst stated in a press release that "market dynamics were supported by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and steel safeguard measures which came into force on July 1, 2020." Outokumpu said that its stainless steel deliveries rose by 5% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter but were expected to remain flat or even decline by 10% during the weaker season. The third-quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain the same as in the second quarter. Earlier?this?month, rival SSAB reported a second quarter earnings miss. This was due to a rise in logistics and energy costs caused by the Iran war.
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Gold falls as Treasury yields rise and offset the focus on Warsh’s inflation message
Gold prices fell on Thursday due to higher?U.S. Markets assessed the yields on Treasury bonds, as well as comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh about tackling inflation following this week's unchanged interest rates. As of 0714 GMT spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,045.59 an ounce after a 2% rise in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery gained 0.2%, to $4043.70. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes increased, increasing the cost of bullion. Soni Kumari, an ANZ analyst, said that "Yields" are a result of rate expectations. If the market believes that higher rates will be imposed due to inflation fears, then yields will rise. The Federal Reserve, divided by its own divisions, left the interest rate unchanged on Wednesday. Warsh reiterated that the central bank is committed to controlling inflation. This uncertainty about next steps has been created for markets. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but it becomes less attractive as a non yielding asset when interest rates are high. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets still price in a 67% probability of a rate increase in September. This is down from 81% just before the policy announcement. Investors also await the U.S. The Personal Consumption Expenditure data (PCE), due at?1230 GMT. The U.S. military announced that on a geopolitical level, it carried out new strikes in Iran, intensifying the 'five-month war, which was already expanding outside its main fronts to include additional countries in this region. Analysts at TD Securities wrote in a report that "the yellow metal will likely drift back to $3,900 an ounce because?oil is still under pressure to'move higher throughout the summer." Spot silver dropped 0.3% to $57.49 an ounce, and platinum dropped 1% to $1.595.38. Palladium increased 0.7% to $1255.67. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair in Bengaluru, Sherry Jacob Phillips, and Pablo Sinha)
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Greek firefighters continue to battle deadly fires in Crete on a second-day basis
ATHENS, 30 July - Greek firefighters fought deadly wildfires for a second consecutive day on Crete on Thursday. Wildfires are continuing to spread across Europe after days of devastating fires in Spain and France. Three 'Greek firemen died on Wednesday while battling blazes in high winds, both on Crete and the mainland. Two more were injured. Two firefighters were killed after they became trapped in a Crete fire while driving between firefronts near the village Krya Vrysi, in the middle of the island. A second person died in a fire in the Peloponnese. Residents and tourists from Krya Vrysi, and other villages nearby were evacuated by sea and land on Wednesday in the centre of the island after high winds caused the fire to spread out of control. More than 200 firefighters, armed with fire engines, water-carrying planes, and other equipment, battled two wildfires in Crete on Thursday. Olive groves, agricultural crops, and houses were all damaged, as well as warehouses, and some were destroyed. On SKAI TV, Giorgos tsapakos, the deputy regional governor of civil protection for Crete, said: "Unfortunately, there is no improvement. The latest information indicates that the winds will increase in the afternoon." He said that the strong winds prevented aircraft from operating this morning. The head of EU's emergency response centre warned on Wednesday that Greece and Italy would face an increased wildfire risk in the coming weeks. Europe, which is the fastest-warming continent in the world, has experienced record-breaking heatwaves as climate change increases heat and drought, allowing wildfires spread more quickly. In the past few days, blazes in Spain and France have caused large-scale evacuations of people. They have scorched through forests and killed wildlife. The Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande Marlaska warned on Wednesday of "three difficult days" with high temperatures and strong winds, as well as a major fire that had been burning in the Avila region and Madrid. This was despite the fact that the fires were stabilising and allowing the authorities to lift the orders for evacuation and sheltering-in-place. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson; Lefteris papadimas)
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WGC: India's new gold tax increases grey market and hurts organized trade.
The World Gold Council reported on Thursday that India has seen an increase in unofficial gold imports since the government increased import tariffs earlier this year. This has led to a widening of margins for grey market operators, and hurting organised players. India, the world's second largest gold consumer, after China, increased import tariffs by more than two-thirds to 15%, on May 13, to reduce demand, reduce the trade deficit, and ease the pressure on the rupee. The arbitrage is huge. Sachin Jain is the chief executive officer of WGC India. He said that grey market inflows, and the disruption caused by them, hurt organised players. The government did not immediately answer 'questions'. The Indian government informed parliament that between April 1 and May 12, they seized 86.16kg of gold, but this increased to 160.91kg. According to WGC data, gold smuggling dropped to 69.2 tons from 156.1 tons the year before, and further declined in 2025, to 20.4 tonnes, after India reduced import duties on its gold. Industry officials said last month that the recent revival of the grey market indicates illegal imports may exceed 100 tons by 2026. India's net imports of gold fell by 23% on an annual basis to 98.1 tons in the second quarter. This is the lowest quarterly level seen since September 2020 when pandemic-induced locksdowns curbed the demand. The report stated that gold demand for the 'June quarter' fell 6% from the previous year to 131.4 tonnes, due to falling jewellery sales outweighing strong investment -demand. Jain stated that the demand is likely to improve in the second half of the year, if prices stay stable. This is because many consumers are expected to return after missing the previous rally. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Rajendra Jadhav)
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Ampol shares reach a 2-year high after refining margins triple
Ampol, an Australian company, said that its Lytton refinery's margins more than tripled in the 2nd quarter. This was boosted by the surging oil prices linked to the Middle East war, which pushed the shares of the company to their highest levels in over two years. Ampol reported that the prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz has tightened crude supply to Asian refiners. This has reduced refinery activity, and driven up refined fuel margins because of product shortages. Ampol stated that it was in a good position to handle any conflict as they had secured supplies for the majority of the quarter. The top fuel retailer in the country reported a 255% increase in its Lytton refinery margins for the second quarter, from $8.71 per barrel a year earlier to $30.93. The total volume of group sales fell from 6,304 million litres to 6,176 millions litres. Mark Elzayed said that the earnings strength was driven primarily by exceptional refining profit margins, rather than a broad-based growth in volume. Elzayed warned that a sustained easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz area could lower geopolitical risks and reduce refining margins to longer-term averages, posing a risk to Lytton’s refining earnings. The shares of the company rose 0.6% at 0418 GMT, after gaining as much as 3.4% in the previous session. Ampol announced that its Lytton Refinery will be closed between August and October to perform maintenance. It expects this to result in a reduction of annual production of about 300 million litres. The company will'manage reductions through its diversified sources of supply, import infrastructure and trading capabilities. Elzayed stated that the company's first-half earnings should be sufficient to allow it to fund the Lytton Refinery turnaround with internal cash flow. Fuel retailer reported that its first-half RCOP EBIT was A$1.35billion ($965m) on a non-audited basis. This is more than tripled from the year before.
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Asian stocks falter after a deep crash, and the Fed leaves markets in the dark about interest rates
Asian stocks were volatile on Thursday, after a week filled with?market turmoil sparked by AI fears. A divided Federal Reserve remained steadfast on interest rates and left the bond markets unsure of their next move. Brent 'futures' fell below $90 a barrel after a day of turbulence sparked by AI jitters. The Federal Reserve, divided, remained steadfast on rates and left bond markets uncertain about the next move. Investors were confused by the Fed's split decision on whether it would raise rates to combat inflation. The yields on U.S. Treasuries with longer maturities rose to their highest level in 19 years. Nasdaq Futures rose by 0.4%, while European Futures indicated a muted opening. Investors will focus on the Bank of England's policy announcement, which is expected to remain unchanged. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6% last after swinging between gains and losses throughout the session. Japan's Nikkei index was up 0.24%, but is still on track for a weekly drop of 4%. Asian chipmakers were the focus of attention in the past week, after a brutal selloff on South Korean stocks wiped out more than $2 trillion from the market value. This heightened investor concern over the return on AI investments. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said that the markets will remain volatile in the short term due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy and the steepening curve of Treasury yields. VOLATILE KOSPI - SHOWING NO SIGN OF EASING? The KOSPI fell 1% during choppy trades, and was on course for a weekly drop of 15%. This selloff prompted Finance Minister Koo Yon-cheol?to apologize for the introduction of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds, which led?authorities?to unveil measures to stabilize the market. Gina Kim is the portfolio manager of emerging market equity at Nordea Asset Management, Singapore. She said: "Given the fact that the fundamental thesis has not changed, it does seem like there's a panicky, irrational element to the current sales." Samsung Electronics, which posted a 250-fold increase in chip profits to ease some nervousness, said that it expects the chip shortages will worsen and continue into 2028. The earnings reports of Microsoft and Meta, two megacaps in the AI race, showed starkly different fortunes. Microsoft's shares rose after it assured investors that they would continue to generate cash until fiscal 2027, despite its heavy spending. Meta's share price fell, however, following a 91% decline in free cash flow for the second quarter. The earnings from Apple and Amazon on Thursday will give more clarity about the sustainability of the AI market. FED LOOK TO MARKETS AS CUES Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, spoke at a media conference after the meeting. He promised to control inflation. However, he did not give any indications of what steps the central banks might take. Warsh pointed out that bond yields have risen significantly since the Fed’s last policy meeting. This reflects market expectations for higher interest rates. He welcomed the move while stressing it didn't oblige the Fed to confirm those expectations through policy actions. Blerina Uruci, T. Rowe Price's chief U.S. economics officer said: "To me, this is a sign that the market has already done the Fed’s job." Warsh's hawkish tones?will ultimately not be enough?to ensure price stability. The market will soon learn that Warsh, the FOMC and their lack of forward guidance will not deliver a policy outcome simply because the market priced it. The confusion caused the yields of 30-year U.S. Bonds to fall from their peak in June 2007 (5.2273%) late in New York Trading. Fed funds futures now indicate that there is a 60% probability the Fed will?raise rates at its September meeting and have 33 basis points of tightening already priced in. Kerry Craig, global asset manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and J.P. Morgan Asset Management's strategist for global markets, said that the Fed will continue to be questioned about its credibility. The gap between the Fed’s words and actions could pose a problem for market pricing. A new chair is faced with a divided committee, and a bond markets that are beginning to doubt the central bank's determination. (Reporting and editing by Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee and Lincoln Feast in Singapore.
The sewage that contaminates Britain's waterways and oceans is a stain.
Under the dark seas of southern England, 400 millions mussels are encrusted on ropes that hang from buoys scattered over an area as large as the largest airport in the country.
The Holmyards built Europe's biggest offshore mussel farming in Lyme Bay. They believed that it would be able to handle the millions of gallons sewage that is pumped into UK water each year.
Even if the bacteria are far away, they can still pollute the water and block exports for several weeks to Europe. This could damage the business of a company that produces sustainable food.
Sarah Holmyard, the sales manager at the farm, said: "It is criminal that they are allowed to dump their waste in the oceans and get away without any consequences." It's affecting a lot of businesses including ours.
The Holmyards' problems, while affecting a small industry in Britain, show how the failure of basic services such as water or sewage can have a negative impact on the economy.
Interviews with 20 people, and data analyses show that polluted waters have also affected tourism and construction projects. This is a drag on economic growth at a time the new Labour Government is trying to jump start the economy.
According to a Freedom of Information Request, in the five years leading up to October 2024 the Environment Agency objected to 60 planning applications because of the pressure they would put on local sewerage networks.
Clean water activists have begun to oppose planning applications. They believe that this will more effectively pressure the government to fix the sewage system, than the current efforts which focus on harming biodiversity.
Ash Smith, a campaigner with Windrush Against Sewage Pollution, said that "money talks". Standing knee-deep in gray, untreated sewage in a local stream in Oxfordshire, Ash Smith explained that they were opposing house building in order to demonstrate how the water system has broken down the country's overall infrastructure.
Pumping sewage into rivers, seas and oceans has been a major scandal for Britain. Privatised water companies are accused of prioritising profits over investments and dumping sewage into waterways when their ailing infrastructure can't cope.
The pollution has discouraged wild water swimmers and angered surfer, led to warnings of toxic blue-green algae blooms in lakes, and created an army who are now experts in water quality, after noticing changes in waterways.
In England, water companies will discharge sewage for more than 3.6 million hours by 2023. This will pollute streams, rivers, and coastlines with sanitary items and condoms. It could also damage ecosystems and habitats.
SEWAGE SPILLS
British sewers combine rainwater and wastewater. Water companies can "spill" water into waterways during heavy rains to avoid sewers becoming overloaded. Many have been fined, however, for releasing too much sewage.
Environment Agency data shows that South West Water discharged sewage 530,737 times in 2023, an 83% increase from 2022, making it one the worst performers in England.
South West Water is looking at ways to improve the water quality in Lyme Bay.
We are ensuring that all designated shellfish waters in the region meet the government target of fewer than 10 spills a year, 10 years before the deadline. In addition, we plan to almost double our investment from 2025-30 to 2.5 billion pounds.
John Holmyard, his wife Nicki and their plan for a mussel farm was a complex one.
After years of farming mussels in the colder waters near Scotland, they looked for a location with warmer water and a good amount of nutrients to help them grow faster. The site had to be sufficiently far offshore to prevent runoff but also have some protection from the sea to reduce the swell.
After visiting other similar sites in Britain, Europe and China, they settled on Lyme Bay and spent seven long years getting planning and regulatory approvals - not knowing if their intuition would be right.
The Holmyards expect to reach 10,000-12,000 tonnes when the project is complete.
John Holmyard who runs the farm with Nicki, Sarah, and George said that they never thought sewage would affect their farm. "But, it hasn't worked out that way."
Shellfish producers have been affected by the toxic effects of sewage.
Prior to Britain leaving the European Union, mussels or oysters were able to be shipped directly to the continent without purification. After Brexit, only purified products or those from British waters rated Class A will be accepted by the EU.
This change has almost completely destroyed the mussel industry in north Wales, on Britain's West Coast. This region used to be the main source of Britain's exports into Europe, but it now only sells to Europe rarely due to a lack in bulk purification and poor water quality.
Shellfish Association of Great Britain SAGB says British exports could double if seas are cleaner.
James Green harvests and sells shellfish in Whitstable in southeast England, a town famed for its shellfish dating back to Roman times. He used to sell about half his product to markets in Europe and Hong Kong, but Brexit, and issues with water quality, have forced him to only sell purified oysters within the country.
Southern Water, his water supplier, will be fined 90 millions pounds in 2021 because it dumped sewage for five years, up to 2015. This caused a disruption in harvests and exports. He was not compensated and said it's hard to wait until improvements.
He said, "I have a business." "Can you hold off until the changes kick in in five, six or seven years?"
Green tracks rain and sewer overflows in order to assess the risks of harvesting his oysters. He also monitors E.coli, Salmonella, and Norovirus.
Southern Water announced that it would invest heavily in order to maintain the high quality of its shellfish beds along its coast.
The 2021 court case involving events that occurred between 2010 and 2015. It found no evidence to support the impact of these events on shellfish beds. These beds are affected by a variety of factors.
Driven to despair
Holmyards mussels have been tested almost daily for E.coli contamination in the Netherlands and always come out within the Class A limits.
The British authorities have reported high E. coli numbers in monthly tests of similar nature, and classified parts of the farm as Class B.
Negative readings in the British system can result in different harvests. Holmyards was stopped from exporting their mussels from this part of the farm for a few weeks and the area was also classified as Class B at the same time next year.
The family finds it strange, because bacteria from the beach should have been heavily diluted before they reached the farm. Also, the British results don't match the Dutch tests that are more frequent.
John stated that they have been unable since Brexit to raise new capital due to the threat of export bans.
Food Standards Agency in Britain, which is responsible for classifying areas where shellfish are harvested, has said that it tried to be flexible but had to protect the public's health. It also added that classifications will only improve as water quality improves.
Sarah and George explained that an annual survey had shown the farm to have spawned a variety of species such as lobster and crab.
In Europe, their blue mussels are a premium product, renowned for their sweet, rich flavour. Despite the bans, Holmyards exports about 95% their mussels into the EU. The rest is sold in Britain.
The tourism bosses believe that this type of locally produced, high-quality food is what they should be promoting to potential holidaymakers.
Alistair Handyside is the chairman of South West Tourism Alliance. He said that while weather and costs were the main factors affecting tourism, the talk about sewage has damaged the appeal of some locations.
He said, "It makes you despair."
TOXIC EXPOUT
The sight of litter and sewage on beaches and rivers has also prompted thousands to protest.
Sally Burtt Jones was one of SOS Whitstable's founders. She is part of a group that organizes protests, tests the local water, and campaigns for legislation change.
She expressed her pride in her work as a campaigner. She said, "We care for the community and sea." "When we come together, we can bring about change."
John Reeve is a representative of Surfers Against Sewage in Saltburn, a seaside town located on the coast of the Northeast. He has studied geology and worked with local officials to determine how to manage rainwater when storms are becoming more intense due to climate changes.
He said, "We're making a change over time."
Water industry claims it has made significant investments in infrastructure since privatisation of 1989. However, population growth and climate changes have created new pressures during a period when successive governments and regulator Ofwat were focused on keeping bills low for customers.
Ofwat reported that water companies in England & Wales have paid out 53 billion pounds ($66billion) in dividends since privatisation, and collective net debt of 69.5billion in 2024.
The government has also gained the power to tie dividends to performance. It has proposed that customer bills increase by 36% on average before inflation in the next five year to fund upgrades to infrastructure. The government is reviewing the sector.
Ofwat's spokesperson stated that customers want change: "We must see a transformation of the culture and performance of companies." We will monitor companies and hold them accountable."
The Environment Agency has also been a hindrance to construction due to the failures of sewage systems.
Most objections to housing, retail, office, school, science business park, and leisure centres are overcome by finding ways to reduce the impact.
The objections can add to the time, costs and complexity of building projects. This is a major challenge for the government, which wants to stimulate a boom in infrastructure and housing construction.
The biodiversity of the world has been affected by water pollution.
The stocks of Atlantic Salmon, which spawn in the freshwater breeding grounds of Britain, have reached new lows. The rod catch for 2023, as declared in the provisional declarations, is the lowest since 1988.
Environment Agency blamed the Holmyards for the pollution and sedimentation.
Sarah stated that the potential of the business being duplicated elsewhere is huge. But if the same problems of not being allowed to export due to the water quality are present, it will not work. ($1 = 0.8046 pound) (Reporting and editing by David Clarke; Kate Holton, Dylan Martinez)
(source: Reuters)