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Portugal seeks support from the EU, Spain and Morocco as wildfire risks rise
Luis Montenegro, the Prime Minister of Portugal, said on Friday that Portugal had asked the EU and Morocco for extra firefighting aircraft in case wildfires grew during the current heatwave. He explained that the unusual decision was not prompted by a lack of resources but rather by an "exceptional" situation in the near future, when "the entire country faces a high risk of wildfires." He told a press conference that it was better to have support from our EU allies, and neighbours, than divert resources away from the parts of the country they were currently deployed in. This is why Lisbon activated EU Civil Protection Mechanism as well as bilateral agreements with Spain. IPMA has issued a red weather warning for parts of Portugal, where temperatures are exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. Portugal's mainland is in a state-of-alert until Monday evening. Authorities have restricted access to some forest areas and banned forestry work with machinery. Farmers are also prohibited from carrying out controlled burns. Civil protection authorities reported that more than 2,800 firefighters were fighting six wildfires in?Portugal, with 864 vehicles, 32 aircraft and other support. The?largest fire was burning in Viseu district, central Portugal. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean; Sergio Goncalves)
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Brent Oil Curve continues to decline as a glut of supply overwhelms the market
Brent crude for "prompt" delivery traded below contracts that were due to be delivered up to six months in the future this week, the latest indication that increased shipments through Strait of Hormuz has caused a glut near-term. On Friday, the first-month Brent futures contract for September traded below the five subsequent contract months. Last week it was trading at a discount to the second contract month. Brent Spreads for the Six-Month Period On Wednesday, oil prices slid to a discount. They dropped to minus 56 cents per barrel on Thursday and then recovered to a small premium on Friday. Investors may be concerned about the current state of demand, and believe that oil will remain plentiful as shipping through the Strait improves. This is why oil prices are trading at a lower price than oil to arrive later. This is known as contango. David Jorbenaze, ICIS' global oil markets leader, said that the newly released crude was chasing a demand that had already been met and reduced. STORAGE OR NON-STORAGE A contango market is a good way to encourage traders to keep barrels in storage and then sell them at higher prices later. Storage could offer some relief to sellers who are competing to sell their barrels on a weak physical market for oil, and also help replenish inventories after the heavy drawdowns that occurred during the supply crisis related to the Iran War. Nitesh Shah is a commodity strategist with WisdomTree. He said that Contango encourages storage and it doesn't require much incentive because the inventories were already depleted in the war years. According to a European crude oil trader, storage plays are profitable if contango is high enough to cover the associated financing and storage fees. These could be between 80 cents and $1 per barrel for companies without their tanks. Bjarne Shieldrop, SEB analyst, said that whether a?contango' deepens, or is merely a temporary phenomenon, depends on if demand in Asia begins to pick back up. He added that storage will be limited due to the mild contango.
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Americans still hit the road on July 4th despite high gas prices
The Fourth of July holiday is fast approaching and Americans are not deterred by the high gasoline prices. They remain well above historical levels. Fuel prices have been lowered by the easing of tensions in the U.S.-Iran relationship. This is due to fears of disruptions of oil shipments across Strait of Hormuz. The price of gasoline is expected to be the second highest ever for Independence Day this weekend, despite recent drops. GasBuddy, a price-tracking service, predicted last week that the average gasoline price in the United States would be $3.75 per gallons on July 4. This is behind only the record $4.80 a gallon set on July 4th 2022. GasBuddy reports that the national average gasoline price was $3.79 per galon on Thursday. This is 63 cents higher than last year's average. The declines occurred despite a turbulent and violent week in which the U.S. and Iran traded new attacks before agreeing to cease hostilities on Sunday. GasBuddy predicts that the national average price will continue to fall this week. However, the situation is anything but predictable," Patrick De Haan said in his GasBuddy weekly note. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has called on gasoline retailers to reduce prices more aggressively. He argues that prices haven't dropped enough since tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was resumed last week. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Trump's message on Tuesday to gasoline retailers, urging the to?lower their prices as the U.S. is celebrating its?250th anniversary. AAA, the motorists' group, expects that 72.2 million Americans will travel at least fifty miles away from their homes. The number of travelers for the Independence Day holiday will surpass last year's record, which was 71.8 million. The number of people driving or flying to their destination is expected to remain relatively flat in comparison to last year as other modes such as cruises become more popular. AAA predicts that 61.4 million Americans will drive, while 5.85 million others are likely to fly, and another 4.93 millions are likely to travel by bus or train. "I believe that Americans will follow through on their plans for summer vacations. ... Denton Cinquegrana is the chief oil analyst for Dow Jones Energy. He said, "I'm not changing anything, I'll figure out next week." The EIA reported on Wednesday that the U.S. gasoline supply, which is a proxy of demand, increased by 356,000 barrels a day before the holiday weekend, to 9.13 millions bpd, up from 8.64 million last year. Fuel balances could continue to tighten in key U.S. market as stocks on the U.S. Gulf Coast are well below normal. Unplanned refinery shutdowns, such as those in Russia and Mexico, or the approaching Atlantic Hurricane Season could also cause a reversal of recent price drops. Gasoline inventories dropped by 2.3 millions barrels in the past week, to 214,000,000 barrels. Stocks along the U.S. Gulf Coast also fell to 76.48million barrels, the lowest level since October 2024. Cinquegrana said that "that (the Gulf?Coast stock level) is likely more concerning than the U.S. having the current deficit." The Gulf Coast refineries account for over 55% of the total U.S. refueling capacity. They are also a major exporter and supplier of fuel. EIA data show that the overall U.S. gasoline stocks were around 213,97 million barrels during the week ending June 26. This is roughly 8% less than they were at the same point last year.
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The US jobs data changes the rate outlook
Global stocks reached their best performance in the past two months after a lukewarm U.S. employment report dampened expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This slowed down?the dollar and gave gold an extra boost. STOXX 600 in Europe hit another record and traded up 0.6% last time, heading for a gain of 2.6% per week, its highest since mid-May. The broadest MSCI index of world stocks rose by 0.4%. It is expected to gain 2% in the coming week, which would be the highest increase in two months. The tech-lite European indexes are in high demand again. This is even more true given that their stocks trade at a lower price-to earnings ratio than the ones typically seen in the U.S. Investors favored financials, healthcare, and other shares as they lowered the price of AI-related companies and semiconductor stocks on Wall Street. On Friday, the chip stocks in Asia rebounded, pushing Tokyo's Nikkei up by 1.5% and South Korea's KOSPI, which is volatile, by about 6%. The Purchasing Managers' Index released on Friday showed increased activity in major Asian economies. Japan's service sector resumed growth in June, after stagnating the previous month. China's services sector expanded at a slower rate, but the overseas demand increased at its fastest pace in 20 months. Capital Economics analysts said that the Chinese PMIs were still healthy by recent standards, and imply a stronger economic growth in Q2. U.S. LABOUR MARKET COOLING U.S. jobs growth slowed in June, and payroll gains from the previous two months were revised down, according to new data released Thursday. This indicates a cooling of the labour market. The lackluster jobs data dampened traders' expectations for an imminent rate increase and increased the likelihood that the Fed would keep rates on hold through October. FedWatch, an online tool from CME Group, shows that Fed funds futures price a 46.8% implied probability of the U.S. Central Bank keeping rates unchanged at its meeting on September 15-16. This is compared to 35.8% a day before. Gold prices rose by 1% this week to $4,160 per ounce, its highest level since May. Inflation is still a major concern. James Rossiter is the head of global economics at TD Securities. He said that shipping was "our biggest risk for this year even before Iran war". He said that the closure of the Hormuz Strait had caused ships to be rerouted around the globe, resulting in a reduction of shipping capacity. The price effects were still being felt by the global economy. U.S. Futures increased, reflecting the positive tone elsewhere. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Futures both rose by 0.3% and 1.2%, respectively. The U.S. Market is closed for Independence Day on Friday. The dollar, after reaching its highest level against a basket major currencies in the past year, took a break on Friday. The euro was up by 0.1% to $1.144 while the pound remained steady at $1.335. The dollar was stable at 161 yen this week. This is the weakest yen in 40 years. According to an exclusive published on Thursday, the few traders present on Friday were on alert for any signs of official purchases by Tokyo authorities. They may have adopted a different approach to their forays in the market. Brent crude oil futures increased 0.45% to $71.12. (Reporting and editing by Nell Mackenzie, Gregor Stuart Hunter, Jan Harvey and Rod Nickel;
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Poland's KGHM announces $8.55 billion investment program
KGHM, the state-controlled copper producer and silver producer in Poland, announced a 'new strategy' on?Friday. The company committed to investing more than 32?billion zlotys (US$8.55 billion) through the end decade and set new targets for output and profits. The "Strategy 2055+" plan targets an average adjusted core profit of?12billion zlotys per year, measured by earnings before interest taxes depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), as well as a paid copper production of 730,000 tons and a silver production of 1,290 tonnes, between 2026 to 2030. Remigiusz Pazkiewicz, Chief Executive of KGHM, said that the company aims to become a multi-raw materials industrial group by 2035. The company plans to build a "KGHM 2.0", a new mine in Poland. This plan reflects KGHM’s?effort to secure ore smelters closer to their Polish smelters?and to reduce logistics costs. About 80% of the company's copper production will come from its domestic assets. The rest will be from mines overseas. In addition, the strategy places a renewed emphasis on overseas operations. KGHM stated that nearly 80% of the planned investment will go to the core Polish business. The rest is allocated to assets located in Chile, the 'U.S. Canada and Chile. The Sierra Gorda mine, where KGHM holds a '55% stake in the company, and the Robinson Mine in Nevada, contributed to 48% of KGHM's EBITDA in 2025. Anna Sobieraj Kozakiewicz, Deputy Chief Executive of Foreign Assets said: "We want the position of our assets abroad to grow because it builds global credibility and resilience to structural change." She said that the company will seek out new opportunities on the basis of efficiency analysis.
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Gold gains for the week as US job data weakens rate hike betting
Gold gained on Friday and was set for a weekly gain following four consecutive weeks of declines. Weak U.S. job data dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in the near future. Gold spot was up 1.3% to $4,174.21 an ounce by 1241 GMT after reaching its highest level since June 23. Bullion is above its 21-day average and has gained over 2% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery?Delivery gained 1.5% to $ 4,186.80/oz. Data released on Thursday revealed that nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. rose by just 57,000, below the 110,000 economists had predicted. Han Tan, Bybit's chief market analyst, explained that the gold rally was fueled by a sharp drop in U.S. hiring last month. The immediate price reaction seems justified for the moment, as the markets are reducing their bets on a Fed rate increase in September. According to CME FedWatch, traders now expect a rate hike in September of about 54%, down from a previous estimate of 66%. The lower interest rates will reduce the cost of holding assets that do not yield income, such as?gold. Due to the recent jobs data, the U.S. Dollar is on course for its largest weekly loss since last April. This makes greenback-priced gold more affordable for holders of other currencies. World Gold Council data released on Thursday shows that central banks added a total of?41 metric tonnes to their gold reserves in May. Tan said that central banks will continue to be a major demand for spot prices in the long term. However, some have recently sold their holdings to protect currencies. Gold demand on the physical market in India slowed this week as prices recovered, while purchasing interest?in China increased slightly. Silver spot rose by 1.9%, to $62.19 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.3%, to $1653.30. Palladium increased 0.8%, to $1278.36. The three metals are on track to make gains this week. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru, Sonia Cheema and Subhranshu sahu)
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Global stocks climb as US jobs data cools Fed hike fears
Global stocks continued to rise on Friday, after a lackluster U.S. employment report tempered expectations of an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, regional activity gauges indicated an economic expansion in June. Europe's broadest index reached a new record and was on track for its largest weekly gain in more than a month. The pan-European STOXX600 reached 651,77 before stabilizing at 650.29. The DAX in Germany rose by 0.4%. The French index was stable and the UK index fell 0.2%. The broadest MSCI index of world stocks rose by 0.4%. Dan Coatsworth of investment platform AJ Bell said in a report that "Europe's Stoxx 600 finished the week with a bang" as investors snatched up utilities, basic materials and industrials stocks. He added that "while these movements indicate a more optimistic investor, it is important to continue watching the U.S. technology stocks as many are emerging from the "boil". South Korea's Kospi fluctuated between gains and losses, before closing around 6 percent higher as investors pounced upon battered chipset stocks. The Purchasing Managers' Index data (PMI), released on Friday, indicated an increase in activity throughout Asia. After stalling in May, the Japanese services sector resumed growth in June. China's service sector expanded at a slower rate, but the overseas demand grew?at its fastest pace in 20 months. Capital Economics analysts said that the Chinese data showed "the PMIs are still healthy and imply a stronger economic momentum throughout Q2". U.S. LABOUR MARKET COOLING According to data released Thursday, the U.S. employment growth has slowed dramatically in June, and payroll gains from the two previous months have been revised downward. This indicates a cooling of labour markets. The lackluster jobs data dampened traders' expectations for an imminent rate increase and increased the likelihood that the Fed would keep rates on hold till October. Fed funds futures indicate a 46.8% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will maintain rates at its September 15-16 meeting, compared to 35.8% a day before. This is according to CME Group's FedWatch. Inflation remains a major concern. James Rossiter is the head of global economics for TD Securities. He said that shipping was their biggest risk this year. This includes the Iran War. He said in a telephone call that the closure of the Hormuz Strait had caused ships to be rerouted around the globe, "leading to less shipping capacity globally." The price effects were still being felt by the global economy. U.S. Futures were up, with S&P and Nasdaq futures each rising by 0.3% and 1,1%. The U.S. stock market will be closed for Independence Day on Friday. The U.S. Dollar held steady at 161, despite the fact that the dollar had lost some of its earlier gains due to the holiday, which drained the market's liquidity. Traders were also on the lookout for any possible intervention. This week, the Japanese?currency was choppy after it was reported on Thursday that authorities might have adopted a?new approach to their forays in the market. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength in relation to a basket six currencies, fell 0.2%, closing at 100.76. In commodities, Brent crude futures steadied at $71.75. Gold rose by just under 1.3% to $4,178. Bitcoin's value increased by 0.1%, to $62,090.78. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus, Jan Harvey and Nell Mackenzie; Gregor Stuart Hunter and Nell Mackenzie)
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Aluminium under pressure as Middle East risk premium declines
The market was expecting a better supply of aluminium from the Middle East as a U.S. Iran interim peace agreement appeared to be holding. In official open-outcry trade, the benchmark three-month 'aluminium' on the London Metal Exchange was?down by 0.2% to $3,086 per metric ton. Citi analysts said that "weaker demand, eased geopolitical risk and increasing expectations of future supplies have led to a sharp price correction over the last month." Citi expects aluminium prices to recover towards $3,300 per ton between September and December before hitting a bottom within a week. Metal touched $3,040 on Thursday, its lowest since February 19. However, it managed to remain above a psychologically important level of $3,000 due to a weaker U.S. dollar, which eased concerns about an impending interest rate increase in the U.S. following disappointing U.S. job data. In an effort to ease concerns over future production in the Middle East - which produces 9% of world supply -?Emirates Global Aluminium announced on Thursday that it would be restoring production earlier than expected at one its complexes damaged by Iranian missile attacks in March. Two sources said that Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers a premium of $395 per tonne over the benchmark price for July-September shipments. This is an increase of 12-13% compared to the previous quarter. The higher premiums in Japan indicate that there is still some tightness on the global physical market, but analysts expect this to loosen up in July-August and resume in September. Copper, another LME metal, rose by a mere 0.1% to $13,342 per ton, in official activity. This was supported by the weaker dollar, and continued outflows of LME stocks. Shanghai Futures Exchange . China's Yangshan Copper Premium The price of, which represents the buying appetite in the largest consumer market, reached $74 per ton this week, its highest level since mid-April. LME tin?jumped 2.1%, to $52,005. Stocks of tin in SHFE-monitored warehouses jumped 2.1% to $52,005. This week, the number of tons fell 18% to a record low of 6,222 tonnes. Lead climbed 0.7%, zinc gained 1.3%, nickel increased 0.4%, to reach $16,320. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Additional reporting by Solomon Cefai)
Americans still hit the road for July 4th despite high gas prices
The Americans are preparing for the Fourth of July, despite gasoline prices that are still high and well above their historical averages. The ease of tensions between?U.S. The easing of tensions between the?U.S. Despite recent drops, this weekend motorists will pay the second highest Independence Day fuel prices in history.
Last week, the price-tracking service GasBuddy predicted that the average gasoline price in the United States would be $3.75 per gallon by July 4. This is behind the record $4.80 per liter set on July 4th 2022. GasBuddy reports that the national average gasoline price was $3.772 per gallon on Friday. This is up 62.7 cents compared to last year. The declines occurred despite a turbulent and violent week in which the U.S. and Iran exchanged new attacks before agreeing to cease hostilities on Sunday. GasBuddy predicts that the national average price will continue to fall this week. However, the situation is anything but predictable, according to Patrick De Haan's weekly note. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has asked gasoline retailers to lower prices more aggressively. He argues that prices have not fallen far enough since tanker shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was resumed last week. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, reiterated Trump's message on Tuesday to gasoline retailers. He urged them to lower their prices in light of the U.S. The United States celebrates its 250th anniversary.
AAA, the motorists' group, expects that 72.2 million Americans will travel at least fifty miles away from their homes. The number of travelers for the Independence Day holiday will surpass last year's record, which was 71.8 million. The number of people driving or flying to their destination is expected to remain relatively flat in comparison to last year as other travel modes such as cruises become more popular.
AAA said that 61.4 million people are expected to drive, while 5.85 million will fly, and 4.93 millions to take the bus, train, or cruise ships.
"I believe that Americans will follow through on their plans for summer vacations. ... Denton Cinquegrana is the chief oil analyst for Dow Jones Energy. The EIA reported on Wednesday that U.S. gasoline supply, which is a proxy of demand, increased by 356,000 barrels a day before the holiday weekend, to 9.13 million barrels a day last week. This compares with 8.64 million bpd at the same time last season. Fuel balances could continue to tighten in key U.S. market as stocks on the U.S. Gulf Coast are 'well below normal.' Gasoline prices may remain high if this trend continues. Unplanned refinery shutdowns, such as those in Russia and Mexico, could also cause a disruption of supply, reversing recent price drops.
Gasoline stocks fell by 2.3 millions barrels to 214,000,000 barrels in the last week. Stocks along the U.S. Gulf Coast also fell to 76.48million barrels, the lowest level since October 2024.
Cinquegrana stated that "that (Gulf Coast Inventory Level) is probably more worrying from a supply perspective than the U.S. having a current deficit." The Gulf Coast refineries account for over 55% of the total U.S. refueling capacity. They are also a major supplier of fuel and exporter to other regions.
EIA data show that the overall U.S. gasoline stocks were around 213,97 million barrels during the week ending June 26. This is roughly 8% less than they were at the same point last year.
(source: Reuters)