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Oil prices fuel inflation fears, which in turn intensifies the bond selloff and stock drop.
The global bond yields reached new highs as traders prepared for an interest rate increase and renewed fighting in the Middle East boosted oil prices. This put pressure on stock markets all over the world. Investors were also worried about the ever-increasing public debt. The yield on Britain's 10-year bond hit a record high since 2008, above 5.24%. Meanwhile, the German equivalent yield reached a 15-year peak at 3.36%. Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNP?Asset management in Tokyo, said: "I think that there is a sense of resignation - tinged by helplessness - about rising interest rates." The march upward of Japanese borrowing costs has been a reliable anchor on world markets for years. The rise in oil prices, and the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict, are fueling inflation fears, which is bad for bonds. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech last week has led traders to increase their bets that U.S. interest rates will rise this year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is used as a benchmark to compare prices of all asset classes, has risen to 4.79%, its highest level since early 2025. "I believe that most of the (bond) sale-off has been a reassessment by Fed policy," said Andrew Lilley. He is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank in Sydney. "I believe the Fed will?hike in September and I think that it is?the start of a three-rate cycle at least." Stocks fall as borrowing costs rise The S&P 500 futures contract fell 0.6% as bond yields rose and oil prices increased. The STOXX 600, Europe's continental index, fell by 0.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1% as the disappointing debut of clothing company Shein Global set the tone for a weak market. Shein Global's value is now less than one quarter of what it was pre-listing in 2022, after the shares fell 8%. Aneeka Gupta is a senior analyst at WisdomTree. She said that higher yields may put pressure on tech firms who are heavily borrowing in bond markets to finance AI investments. She said: "The higher the yields, the greater the strain on this sector, one of the biggest growth drivers in equity markets." "I believe that's resulting in the spillover in equity markets that we are seeing today." As renewed conflict in the Middle East dampened prospects for a reopening of Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices drove?global bonds yields higher? on Tuesday. Brent crude rose by 2% to $92.20 while Europe's benchmark gas price increased towards its highest level since early 2023. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has warned that he will continue to strike Iran following a first exchange in fire within a month. In the meantime, increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices to three-year-highs. As bonds and stocks declined, the U.S. Dollar gained on Tuesday. The euro fell 0.2% to 1.16 dollars and the dollar rose 0.1% to 159.9. According to CME’s FedWatch tool on Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 65% probability of a Fed interest rate hike this September. This is up from 40% one week earlier. The money markets also priced in an additional rate hike by the European Central Bank for this month.
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Sources say India has revived talks with Zambia about investing in vital minerals
Two sources confirmed that India has resumed discussions with Zambia about investment opportunities in copper, and other minerals of importance, as New Delhi increasingly looks overseas to source raw materials for its growing economy. Two people who were familiar with the talks, who requested anonymity due to the confidentiality of the discussion, said that officials from India's Ministry of Mines had preliminary discussions on August 26 with Zambian officials. One source said that the two parties did not discuss an stalled project which had stopped talks earlier. Reports in April indicated that the talks between India, Zambia and other countries had been stalled due to a lack assurances by Lusaka regarding mining rights for an area measuring 9,000 square kilometers (3 475 square miles), which were awarded to India last year. The Indian Ministry of Mines did not respond to our request for a comment. Zambia's Ministry of Mines spokesperson said that they couldn't confirm anything at this time. Khanij Bidesh India Ltd is India's primary vehicle for securing vital mineral supplies abroad. It is also evaluating opportunities to invest in Australia, Brazil and Canada. India has been in talks with several African countries to acquire critical mineral blocks on a government-to-government basis, while also exploring opportunities in ?Australia and Latin America. A spokesperson for the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries said that Africa, in particular the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia, can play a?important part in meeting India's increasing requirements for cobalt and copper. The spokesperson stated that "we?believe Indian firms should be encouraged to pursue brownfield projects and near-production, as well as long-term offtake agreements." India is the second largest buyer of refined metals in the world. Its?copper imports are up sharply since a smelter owned by Vedanta, Sterlite Copper?smelter?closed?in 2018. The government said that India may need to import between 91% and 97% of the copper concentrates it uses by 2047.
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Zinc reaches a four-year high amid supply concerns
London zinc prices rose Tuesday to their highest level in more than four years, supported by concerns about supply and the limited availability of zinc outside China. As of 0300 GMT, the benchmark three-month 'zinc contract on the London Metal Exchange was up by 2.29% at $3,972 per metric ton. The contract had reached $3,990 earlier, its highest level since May 2022. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded zinc contract was up 2.71 percent at 27,070 Yuan ($4,027.97). The price of zinc reached a high of 27,165 yuan per tonne earlier this year, the highest level since January 2026. Zinc prices have been boosted by falling refined zinc stocks outside China and tight raw material supplies. This has helped the metal to post its best monthly performance since January on the LME as well as the SHFE. Metal prices have been supported by a tight supply outside of China, which has pushed metal into overseas warehouses and lowered inventories on those markets. Analysts from Chinese broker Jinrui Futures wrote in a report that domestic (Chinese ) inventories had seen a sharp decline on Monday. Spot purchases were concentrated in deliverable brand names. A shortage of zinc concentrate, a raw material used to make refined metals, has prompted refiners in other countries to accelerate their maintenance schedules. Analysts at Jinrui said that the domestic smelters had increased maintenance plans due to the current raw material shortage. Due to the shortage of zinc concentrate, treatment charges for this material are at a sharply negative level. Refiners are therefore paying miners for their processing. According to broker Marex, bullish speculative positions are at their highest level since the second quarter 2022. Copper added 0.45% among LME metals. Aluminium gained 0.62%. Lead added 0.16%. Nickel dropped 0.12%. Tin?added 0.45%. Copper gained 0.5% among SHFE metals. Aluminium rose 0.63%. Lead lost 0.65%. Nickel added 0.45%. Tin gained 0.93%.
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Chinese rescue efforts in Tibet flood-damaged zone still going strong days after
Rescue teams from China worked through the night and the relentless rain to repair the last kilometre of the only road that leads to the Gyirong Border crossing into Nepal. The road was destroyed by a catastrophic slide last week. The reopening of the China-Nepal Border crossing was a struggle with the elements. Rescuers were working in a narrow mountain canyon squeezed between crumbling mountains and a raging stream. State broadcaster CCTV reported on Tuesday that the rapids have repeatedly swept away efforts to rebuild a road over the last few days. CCTV footage shows excavators standing on shattered road edges, clinging onto a bend at which the highway'simply disappears into the sea. National Highway 216 - the main artery 'running along the Gyirong Tsangpo River?towards the border' - was ravaged by a massive backflow of debris from the direction the border crossing complex. After a collapsed glacier caused mudslides, floods and landslides in Nepal and China, road repairs started on Wednesday. DANGER IS not over Although the lakes that formed in Tibet from the debris washed down by the glacier collapse have gradually drained, the landslide risks and the volatile water body upstream could still cause the rivers to be dammed. Any sudden burst of the dam could also send a new torrent into the rescue area. CCTV reported that the crater created by the?glacier slide on Wednesday -- which is estimated to hold?water equal to 260 Olympic-sized swimming pools -- has shrunk, according to Monday's report. Forecasters predict heavy rains through Wednesday that could exacerbate the problem. CCTV reported that by Tuesday afternoon, 60 rescuers were in the disaster area, searching twice through the wreckage for survivors. The scars left by the mudslide are 60 meters (196.85 ft) high. This is roughly equivalent to the height of 20-storey buildings. China's official death toll has not changed since Sunday, with 16 deaths and 546 people still missing.
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As energy prices rise, inflation fears are stoked.
Investors worried about inflation and a new wave of interest rate increases were prompted by renewed fighting in the Middle East, which boosted oil prices. Japan's benchmark?10-year? has hit 3% for a first time in generations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which is used as a benchmark to determine prices in all asset classes, broke resistance at 4.75% and now stands at 4.78%, its highest level since early 2025. The futures market for French and German bonds extended the selling, which drove yields up to 15-year highs. Australia's 10-year bond yield rose at the fastest rate in five months. Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNP asset management in Tokyo, said that there was a growing sense of resignation, mixed with a hint of helplessness, about the rising interest rates in Japan, which have for many years been a reliable anchor on world markets. As the Federal Reserve chair Kevin?Warsh resets expectations on rates, higher oil prices and increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are fueling inflation fears, which is bad for bonds. Investors are also beginning to demand higher lending premiums due to the skyrocketing debt of sovereigns. Japan's 10-year loan cost is now at 3%. This is the government's long-term funding cost. So, any increases will put real pressure on sovereign finance, already under strain from Prime Minister Takaichi’s “spend to grow” agenda. U.S. Futures have remained steady and European Futures have dipped, after Wall Street's modest Monday fall. The mood is nervous as we await Friday's U.S. Jobs data, which could lead to an increase in interest rates as early as this month. The markets are pricing a rate increase in New Zealand next Wednesday, and in Europe the following week. The odds of a rate hike in Japan and the U.S. this month are better than even. "I believe that most of the bond sell-off is due to a reassessment in Fed policy," said Andrew Lilley. He's a chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, based in Sydney. "I believe the Fed will hike in September, and that it is the beginning of a three-rate cycle minimum." SHEIN FADES, BRENT TOPS $91, The Nikkei 225 index of Japan struggled to make any progress and the rate selloff hit equities that are sensitive to housing in Australia such as retailers and banks, due fears of a real estate downturn spreading with every increase in borrowing costs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1% as the debut of clothing company Shein Global set a weak tone. Shein Global shares fell 8%, leaving its market value at less than one-quarter of where it peaked pre-listing in 2022. The conflict in the Middle East has made the energy outlook uncertain. Brent futures have topped $91 per barrel, and Europe's standard gas price ended summer at a 3-1/2 year high with stocks at seasonal record lows. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has warned of further strikes after a 'first exchange of fire within a month.' Meanwhile, increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices to three-year-highs. The rise in borrowing costs is global and has only provided limited support for the U.S. Dollar. The dollar remained at 159.76 yen to the euro, while the euro remained at $1.1619. In Europe, preliminary inflation figures will be released later Tuesday.
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Poland's largest army is built on home-grown defence manufacturing
Government officials and companies claim that as Poland builds Europe's largest army, the country is turning to domestic defence companies, including those in central Europe, to reduce its reliance on suppliers from faraway places who are unable to ramp up delivery quickly. According to Armaments Agency figures analysed by?, the amount spent on Polish defence procurement, including joint ventures, from domestic companies has nearly quadrupled since 2022, reaching 30.4 billion Zlotys ($8.15 billion) in 2018. Officials say that while the Ukraine conflict prompted increased defence spending in Europe, Poland is a country where it's top priority because the country shares its border with Ukraine, and views Russia as a threat to its existence. Konrad Golota, Deputy Minister of State Assets, said: "We are building the largest land force in Europe." The fact that something is manufactured in Poland and is used by the Polish army is increasingly important. More than a dozen officials, companies, and experts said that Warsaw has increased capital spending in the last year. This reflects a change in priorities that will create opportunities for defense firms in the area. According to NATO, Poland will spend EUR 53 billion ($61.45 Billion) this year on its core defence, making it the fourth highest in the EU behind France, Italy, and Germany. This is up from EUR 44 billion in 2025, and represents around 4.7% GDP. Polish officials have stated that while big-ticket items such as U.S.-made Patriot rocket batteries, Abrams tank and F-35 jet fighters?remains important, expanding domestic and region production of drones and ammunition, and other commonly used equipment, has become a top priority. RIGIONAL SHIFT Poland's new strategy is part of a wider rethink in Europe, as governments look to rebuild their defence industrial capacities after the Ukraine war exposed how quickly ammunition stocks can be depleted by modern conflicts. The Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister,?Wladyslaw kosiniakKamysz, said: "This investment is not just to develop a high-tech defence industry that will drive the Polish economy. It's also about supply chain independence." It ensures that independent supplies are available to the front lines in the event of a need. Until recently, the presence of defence firms from countries like the Czech Republic and Slovakia in Poland was limited. Poland relied heavily upon state-owned producers, such as PGZ, and U.S. suppliers. These companies now see an opportunity. CSG of Czechoslovakia, a major ammunition supplier to Ukraine, has signed several agreements to expand its production in Poland in the last few months. These include a technology transfer to PGZ's subsidiary MESKO, and an agreement to expand the production of drones and missiles as well as ammunition and armored vehicles. CSG's Polish division has also acquired Domar MS, a manufacturer of defence components. CSG has signed a contract worth EUR150m with Huta Stalowa Wola to provide fighting vehicle equipment. The agreement is valued at EUR100m. Wojciech Gzonka, CSG Polska's Chief Executive Officer, said that Central Europe is undergoing a broader change in the way defence industrial capability is built. "Poland is one of the key directions in our long-term expansion and development of production capabilities." 'NEAR-SHORING' PIONEER' Warsaw's offensive has prompted other defence groups to respond. The Polish arms manufacturer Grupa Niewiadow (a Niewiadow PGM division) is establishing 155 mm ammo production with KNDS Ammo France. Production will reach 180,000 rounds per year by next year. PGZ announced in March that it would partner with Estonia's Frankenburg Technologies in order to manufacture ultra-short range air defence systems in Poland. Zdenek rod, a defence specialist at CEVRO University, in Prague, stated that Poland is emerging as a leader in efforts to "nearshore" military manufacturing within Europe. Rod explained that "for years, the United States has been a top priority for ensuring NATO interoperability." "Now Poland also tries to ensure resilience against disruptions around the world by turning more towards regional and European suppliers." Polish officials have also said that they are examining expanding industrial cooperation with other countries, including Slovakia and Hungary. The German company?Rheinmetall's said that the rising demand for its land combat systems from Poland is one of the reasons it has established production capacity in Poland and developed a regional maintenance hub. Rheinmetall stated that "the demand generated by Poland's modernisation program in defence justifies the establishment of full-scale production facilities there. These can be integrated into European Supply Chains and contribute to redundancy, resilience and European Defence Industrial System." Poland and Estonia are among the few NATO countries that are close to meeting their NATO commitment of spending 5% of GDP for defence by 2035. Warsaw offered last month to produce Patriot air defence missiles with Ukraine and the United States as a sign of its ambitions in the defence industry. Golota, Deputy Minister of State Assets, said: "If you are interested in selling in Poland, then you must invest in Poland. You have to transfer technologies and work with us on joint projects." The more factories we have and the more know-how that we have, the better for our defense.
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As energy prices rise, inflation fears are stoked.
Global bond yields reached new highs as renewed fighting in the Middle East pushed oil prices to $90 per barrel, and pressured stock markets around the globe. Japan's benchmark 10-year rate hit 3% for a first time in decades. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which is used as a benchmark to price all asset classes, reached its highest level since early 2025, at 4.78%. Futures for French and German bonds extended the selling that had previously driven yields up to 15-year levels. Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNP asset management in Tokyo, said: "I think that there is a sense of resignation - tinged by helplessness - about rising interest rates." The march upward of Japanese borrowing costs has been a reliable anchor for world markets, and it's only going to get worse. As the Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has reset expectations, higher oil prices and increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are fueling inflation fears, which is bad for bonds. Investors are also beginning to demand higher lending premiums due to the skyrocketing debt of sovereign governments. U.S. equity futures and European equity futures fell after Wall Street's modest Monday declines. The mood was nervous as the U.S. employment data due on Friday could lead to a rate hike cycle beginning?as early as this month. Wee Khoon Chong is a macro strategist for BNY in APAC. The upward pressure on long-end global yields and term premiums is maintained by hawkish monetary policies, geopolitical risks and inflation, as well as rising fiscal concerns. SHEIN FADES, BRENT TOPS $91, The Hang Seng dropped 1% and Japan's Nikkei fell to zero by mid-afternoon, with Shein Global's lacklustre debut setting the tone. Brent crude futures, however, reached $91 per barrel in Asia, while Europe's benchmark gasoline price closed Monday at its highest level in more than three-and-a half years. The Middle East conflict has made the outlook for energy and inflation precarious. Traders are bracing themselves for a short-term rise in rates. U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran again after the first?of fire? in a month, while increased fighting between Russia and Ukraine is pushing wheat prices close to three-year-highs. The markets are pricing in an interest rate increase in New Zealand next Wednesday, and in Europe the following week. The odds of a rate hike in Japan and the U.S. this month are better than even. The U.S. Dollar has only received limited support from the global?rise in borrowing rates. The dollar was unchanged at 159.76 yens to the euro. In Europe, preliminary inflation figures will be released later on Tuesday. Hong Kong Shein shares fell 8% under a price that was already reduced from previous fundraising rounds. Tariff and duty changes have hit the fast-fashion retailer known for its $5 tops, and $10 dresses in Europe and the U.S., eroding a key component of its low-cost model.
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The dog days of the past are over.
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Europe is entering autumn with benchmark gas prices at a 3-1/2 year high and stocks at their lowest level ever. Records dating back to 2011 show that this was the case. Winter is a gamble, because the scramble for?gas has exacerbated a "backwardation" where prices near term are higher than those of winter. It makes no sense to stockpile gas at this time, and Europe will have to wait until the summer heat wave is over before they can hope for a cold winter. The bond markets have returned from their summer lull, 'decidedly apathetic.' Bund futures are trading at 15-years lows in Asia. OAT futures are at the lowest level since 2012. French and German yields reached their highest levels in 15 years on Monday, as fiscal pressures increased in both countries. The European inflation data that will be released later in the day is likely to confirm market expectations of a rate hike next Monday. After the first exchange of fire in a whole month, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to strike Iran again. The yields rose throughout the Asia session, with the 10-year Treasury yields reaching a 20-month peak in Tokyo and Japan's benchmark 10-year bond touching 3% for first time since 1996. Seoul, Tokyo and Sydney all saw their stocks fall, as shares of fashion giant Shein Global, which had already been discounted due to growth and regulatory issues, fell by 8% on the first trading day. Investors have pointed out that the increase in global bond yields is largely due to real yields, or better growth expectations. There's also an alarming rise in the term premiums. According to a measure published by the New York Fed, the 10-year Treasury Term Premium had more than tripled from 26 basis points around January 2025 up to 80 bps or more in June. Since the end June, nominal 10-year Treasury yields are up about?36 basis point against an increase of 9 bps in breakeven inflation expectations. This suggests a mixture of increases in real yield and term premium. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: Economics: Euro zone CPI, US JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing Earnings: Dell, Palo Alto Networks
Gulf oil stocks soar as US-Iran conflict intensifies
Gulf stock markets rose in early trade Tuesday on higher oil prices, while United Arab Emirates stocks were subdued as renewed fighting between the United States and Iran dampened investor sentiment.
Brent crude traded at $91.94 per barrel as of 0804 GMT, an increase of 1.6%.
Qatar's benchmark rose 0.6% with all sectors in positive territory. Qatar Fuel Company gained 4.6% while Qatar National Bank (the region's biggest lender) added?1.1%.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index increased by 0.3%. Healthcare, materials, and energy stocks led the way. Saudi Aramco, the oil giant, gained 0.7% while Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical soared by 4.7%.
Saudi Arabia will likely 'raise the official selling price for crude bound for Asia in October, according to a survey. A survey revealed that Middle East spot crude prices rose on the back of tighter supply and strong demand.
The benchmark index in Abu Dhabi fell by 0.3% with all sectors falling. First Abu Dhabi Bank, UAE's biggest lender, fell 1.7% while conglomerate, International Holding Company, declined by 0.5%.
Dubai's main index remained unchanged, as gains elsewhere were offset by losses in consumer staples, utilities, and communication. Emirates Integrated Telecommunications dropped 3.5% while blue-chip developer 'Emaar Properties' rose 1.3%.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened to strike Iran again on Monday after the first direct exchange of attacks within a month. This heightened tensions in an 'economic standoff' that recently evolved into a conflict.
Masoud Peshkian, the President of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, said that Iran would immediately reciprocate, if "the U.S. returned to its commitments under an interim agreement" signed in June.
(source: Reuters)