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Prices of iron ore fall after Cyclone Narelle spares Australian ports
Iron ore futures fell on Friday as traders unwound their?supply disruption bets following Tropical Cyclone Narelle's spared of vital port infrastructure in Western Australia. As of 0330 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange?traded at $813.60 ($117.60) per metric ton. The contract has still gained 0.13% this week. On the Singapore Exchange, the benchmark April Iron Ore was $107 per ton. This is a 0.32% decrease. This week, it has fallen 1%. Atilla Widnell is the managing director of Navigate Commodities. She said that iron ore futures will?likely experience a temporary corrective, because traders are relieved tropical cyclone Narelle did not affect vital Western Australian port infrastructure. Even though the ports were closed, any damage to the infrastructure could have caused prolonged supply interruptions. Widnell said that iron ore shippers are still concerned about bunker fuel and refueling, as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies, causing fuel rationing and increasing shipping costs. The iron ore futures market was rangebound in the week ahead amid concerns about supply disruptions due to Australia and possible production cuts by steel mills related to environmental protection measures. According to LSEG, data compiled shows that higher market risks also reduced transaction volumes. Iron ore stocks are high. Continue to press prices. A note from Shanghai Metals Market stated that hot metal production increased by 15,000 metric tonnes week-on-week this week. This indicates support for the demand. Separately inventories of BHP’s Jimblebar Fines, a type of iron ore, in some Chinese ports fell to a near two-month-low after steelmakers rushed?to take delivery during a brief reprieve of an import ban of one week, traders said. The ban was re-implemented in the past and is still in effect, along with BHP's Newman Fines. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, both fell by 2.43% & 1.75% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving lower. Rebar fell by 0.22%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.36%. Wire rod also weakened 0.3%, and stainless steel declined 0.62%. ($1 = 6.9132 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy).
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Singapore plans to establish Asia's gold trading hub
Singapore announced plans to transform the city-state of Singapore into a gold trading center for the entire Asia. Regulators and industry players are working together to improve the trading, clearing, and storage infrastructure. Singapore is one of many Asian financial centers racing to increase their gold trading and capture more bullion flows. Hong Kong, too, is pushing to expand the gold market's links with Shanghai. The Singapore Bullion Market Association and the Monetary Authority of Singapore have identified four areas of focus. These include the expansion of gold-related products on the capital markets and the establishment of a trust clearing and settlement system. Other areas include improving vaulting standards, studying vaulting services for foreign central bankers and sovereign entities and strengthening the vaulting and logistic standards. Chee Hong Ta, Singapore's Minister for National Development and MAS Vice Chairman, told reporters Friday that "we are not?placing a bet on whether?the price in the short-term will go up or down." What we do is create an ecosystem of gold trading activities based in Singapore. Chee stated that the plan was based upon industry feedback, and was intended to bring more gold and high value activity to Singapore as well as?creating employment. The working group was formed by MAS and SBMA in?January. Members of the group include DBS, ICBC Standard Bank JPMorgan UBS UOB SGX, and World Gold Council. OCBC announced in February that it was 'exploring physical gold custody' for wealthy and institutional clients. In an uncertain global climate, demand for gold remains strong, despite a recent sharp drop in prices triggered by a stronger dollar and a rise in oil prices.
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Dubai crude's price slumps as sellers pile on offers to TotalEnergies
The spot premium for Dubai crude fell by more than half, reaching its lowest level in the last three weeks. More sellers appeared and increased their offers. TotalEnergies remained the sole bidder. The Middle East benchmark that is used to price millions of barrels of crude oil that Asia imports dropped to $17 a bar at Thursday's market?close, down by more than 60% compared to $51.20 a bar in the previous session. This highlights the severe?price instability due to the U.S. and Israel war with Iran that has disrupted the shipping in the Strait of?Hormuz. Three people have said that sellers such as Unipec Vitol Shell and BP began offering Dubai an hour before the trading window started. One of them said, "They had over an hour to continue offering (Dubai)." "Totsa was there, but they didn't try to counter them aggressively." Totsa is the trading arm of TotalEnergies and has been the only buyer of Middle East 'crude' during the Platts Window. It has purchased a total 69 Oman crude cargoes or 34.5 million barrels in the last month. Outside of office hours, the company was not immediately available for comment. It previously refused to comment on Dubai trades. Dubai's premium soared to a record high?of $65 a barrel last week, as the amount of crude? available for trading dropped after S&P Global Platts removed three of the five grades of crude oil in?anticipation of a long-term disruption?in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The price spike has led Asian refiners not to buy Middle East crude on the spot market, but instead purchase oil from Europe and Africa. (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Siyi Liu)
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New Zealand's contingency fuel plan is phased, but there are no immediate curbs needed.
New Zealand announced on Friday a four-phased strategy to manage the rising risks to petrol, jet fuel and diesel supplies. However, it said that no restrictions were needed at this time as the government was well-positioned to respond to potential energy shocks. Nicola Willis, Finance Minister of Canada, said that the country is in the first phase. This phase focuses on global developments and promoting voluntary fuel reductions. Willis said at a press briefing that there was no cause for immediate alarm. Companies have good confidence in fuel deliveries through the end of this month. She warned that the country should be prepared for disruptions in the event of a prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz by tankers and a drop in refinery production. New Zealand is a country that is highly vulnerable to global supply disruptions. It imports nearly all its refined fuel. As of Sunday, New Zealand had 49 days worth of petrol, 46 of diesel, and 53 of jet fuel. This includes shipments on their way. The ministerial group overseeing the project will make any decisions regarding a change in phases, based on six criteria. These include changes to fuel stock levels as well as potential restrictions on exports from?refineries supplying New Zealand. In later stages, the plan could include stronger measures, such as prioritising fuel for emergency service, freight, food supply chains, and other key industries. Some employers may be encouraged to encourage employees to work from home. But?there's one place where we draw the line. We don't want children to be forced out of the classroom, as happened during COVID. Willis stated that we do not want children to be forced to learn at home. The government announced this week that it would temporarily allow the import of fuels?meeting Australian Standards for up to 12 months. This move was made in an effort to ease supply risks related to the Middle East Conflict.
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India's water and power supply will be tested by extreme heat this summer
The demand for electricity will be at record levels during hot days The heat will add to the water stress in cities Water shortages in the future can be avoided by reusing wastewater Bhasker Tripathi India Meteorological Department warns that many parts of the country may experience more hot days than average this summer. The Council on Energy Environment and Water (CEEW), an independent policy think-tank based in Delhi, has found that the intensifying heat is already causing spikes in demand for electricity to cool, while increasing pressure on water supplies. India, which already struggles to meet its energy demands due to the Iran War, has seen its demand for electricity rise. India imports 90% of its oil, and 60% of its natural gas. Heatwaves in India are not only a health issue, but they also act as a stress-test for the country's urban water and electricity systems. Record Temperatures Expected In May 2024, India's hottest ever year, electricity demand peaked at 250 gigawatts, causing power outages throughout the country. Peak demand in 2025 was 4% less than in June of last year, or nearly 240 gigawatts. The researchers say that India's electricity demand for 2026 has already exceeded projections, as the hot weather came earlier than normal after the world experienced its fifth warmest month on record. International Energy Agency reports that cooling already accounts for 20% of India's peak electric demand. Disha Agrawal is the senior programme leader at CEEW. She said that due to the unusually warm summer weather, peak electricity demand may rise to 260 gigawatts. This level of demand exceeds the entire capacity of electricity generation of many middle-sized countries. India's installed capacity for power generation is about 500 gigawatts, approximately half of which comes from non-fossil fuels, primarily solar and wind power, but also hydro and nuclear. Solar and wind power are intermittent, whereas coal plants produce electricity continuously. India's gas consumption is only 2% of the total electricity generated, but it uses 8 gigawatts during heat waves or periods of high demand. In order to meet peak summer demand in a period of geopolitical uncertainty, the Indian Government has ordered coal plants to operate at full capacity, deferring maintenance. It plans to use solar energy for daytime power. CLEAN ENERGY GROUP GOALS Researchers?said that the variability of renewable energy, limited battery storage, and ageing grids remain major challenges to India's electrical system. Extreme heat could also further strain infrastructure. Agrawal said that "Scaling up clean energy quickly is critical for meeting India's growing power demand reliably, and affordably." She said that if India's electricity demand grows faster than projected, it may be necessary to increase its non-fossil energy capacity to 600 gigawatts by 2030. The extreme heat in India is increasing the pressure on water systems. This is particularly true in cities with limited freshwater resources. According to the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), India treats just?28%?of its wastewater. This leaves most cities with no functioning systems for reusing treated water in industry, agriculture, or other non-drinking applications. Nitin Basi, fellow of CEEW, stated that India could reuse over 31,000 million cubic meters of treated wastewater each year by 2047, if?supported by investments and policy reforms. This is about 30 times the water used by Delhi in a year. Bassi said that "scaling up treated wastewater reuse is one of most practical ways for Indian cities to ensure water security." Many states and cities are preparing to meet the increasing demand for water and heat. As part of an action plan for the summer, Delhi authorities have increased tanker fleets, installed monitoring systems, and opened emergency water centres. Climate change has reshaped heat patterns in the country. According to a CEEW report last year, more than half of India’s districts, which are home to 76% of its population, are susceptible to extreme heat. Experts report that many cities still rely more on short-term solutions such as cooling shelters or water kiosks than they do on long-term changes to infrastructure needed to deal with the continued rise in temperatures.
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Oil prices drop as Trump stops attacks on Iranian energy facilities
Oil prices dropped in the early morning trade of Friday, and have been down for a volatile week after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks with Iran on ending the war are going "very well", and that he will pause his attacks on Iran's energy facilities for 10 days. Brent futures dropped 90 cents or 0.8% to $107.11 per barrel as of 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures also fell 83 cents or 0.88% to $93.65 a barrel, reducing gains from a previous bullish session. Brent gained 5.7% on Thursday while WTI gained 4% on fears of a further escalation in the war. However, the trading volume of the Brent front-month contract was at its lowest since February 27, one day before Israel and the United States began their strikes against Iran. WTI is down for the second week in a row, while Brent is heading 'for its first weekly drop in six weeks, and Trump has talked up 'the prospect of ending war. "As per Iranian government request... "I am pausing the destruction of Energy Plants by 10 days...to Monday, 6 April 2026 at 8 PM Eastern Time," Trump wrote in a Thursday post on Truth Social. A senior Iranian official told a reporter that the 15-point U.S. plan, which was sent to Tehran by Pakistan on Tuesday, had been reviewed in depth by senior Iranian officials, including the supreme leader of Iran. The official described the plan as "unfair and one-sided". On Thursday, the U.S. President said that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to transit through the Strait of Hormuz in a gesture of goodwill during negotiations. He said that they were Pakistani-flagged ships. The U.S. also sent thousands to the Middle East. Trump is weighing the use of ground forces in order to take over Iran's strategic oil hub, Kharg Island. The Strait of Hormuz has been virtually closed to shipments, and Fatih Bilo, the chief of the International Energy Agency, described the crisis as "worse" than both the oil shocks in the 1970s as well as all the gas from the Russia-Ukraine conflict put together. The war against Iran has slashed 11 million barrels per day of global oil supply. For today, markets do not expect a major impact, especially in the oil market. If you look at the curve in the future, it appears that the markets are assuming a quick end to the crisis and a rapid stabilisation of the situation.
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US troops would be at risk if they took Kharg Island. Drones, mines and other dangers
Donald Trump is weighing up whether to use ground troops to take Iran's strategic oil center of?Kharg Island. Analysts say that this operation could be accomplished quickly but would leave the?U.S. The war will be prolonged and troops put in danger. Where is Kharg Island and why? Kharg Island is located 16 miles (26 kms) off the coast of Iran in the northern end of the Gulf. It's about 483 kilometers (483 miles) north of the Strait of Hormuz. The island is located in water that is deep enough for tankers to dock, even if they are too big to reach the shallow waters of the Iranian coast. Seizing the island would allow the United States to disrupt Iran's energy industry and put enormous pressure on Tehran. Iran is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' third-largest oil producer. What is the current state of play? U.S. forces conducted strikes against Kharg mid-March. Trump said that they had "totally destroyed" all military targets in Kharg and suggested they would target the oil infrastructure next. Officials from the United States have informed the administration that they are weighing up whether or not to "send ground forces" to the island. Sources say that the Pentagon plans to send thousands of airborne troops to the region by the end of this month to give Trump more options in case he decides to launch a ground attack. DRONES AND MINES The U.S. could seize the island relatively quickly. However, this would not necessarily mean that Trump's war is over in a hurry, especially given how unpopular it is at home, ahead of the midterm elections. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Ryan Brobst, and Cameron McMillan wrote that a seizure or occupation of Kharg Island would be more likely to escalate and prolong the war rather than to bring about a decisive victory. The U.S. military would be subjected to missile and drone attacks. This could include small but deadly "first-person-view drones", which are already being used by millions of Ukrainians. They said that if the Iranian regime were to launch successful attacks, they would release online videos showing the deaths of American soldiers as propaganda. Analysts say that Trump also hopes to gain leverage by gaining control of 'Kharg Island', which would force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran may choose to deploy more mines, including?floating?mines, to disrupt shipping in the area, as the conflict has already caused significant disruptions. TROOPS NEED BACKUP Joseph Votel, former commander of U.S. Central Command told TWZ.com that although only 800 to '1,000 troops would be required on Kharg Island but that they would also need logistical support and protection. Votel stated that the troops will be vulnerable and he doubted if capturing the island will provide any tactical advantage. It would seem "a bit odd" to do so. Votel added that they could do it, if necessary. (Reporting and editing by Andy Sullivan, Sonali Paul and Andy Sullivan; reporting by David Brunnstrom and Idrees Al and Phil Stewart)
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Oil shock, war, and uncertainty: McGeever: Time to increase US equity outlook
It might seem odd to be more bullish about stocks at a time when the U.S. economy is masked by a fog of war, and oil costs $100 per barrel. From a valuation perspective, the case is compelling. Barclays strategists outlined this?this past week, when they increased their S&P500 price?and earning forecasts. They are not the only bulls. They argue that corporate America won't be able to escape the economic impact of the Iran war or energy shock. However, it is still in a relatively good position. Take technology, the engine that has driven Wall Street's recent boom. Recent concerns that firms overspend on artificial intelligence have caused the market to sputter. Concerns about AI disruption has also roiled software company shares. The "Big Tech' selloff was pretty large. Roundhill's "Magnificent 7" ETF is down by 10%, which is three times more than the S&P 500. The tech sector, measured by the 12-month forward price/earnings rate, is now cheaper than it was during the 'Liberation Day' turmoil of a year earlier. This multiple hovers around 21, which is the lowest it has been in three years, and down by a third since last October. This is a remarkable turnaround of a key sector in a short period of time. The valuation premium that technology enjoyed in the past over the stock market is almost gone and now the smallest it has been in seven years. According to Jefferies equity strategists, a narrower measure of this premium - "Mag Six" over the S&P 500 – is the smallest it has been since 2008-09. The Re-Rating Game It is reasonable to argue that a "sweeping reset" was long overdue, as tech stocks had become far too costly. The current valuations are simply returning to their long-term mean. It's not just that tech is cheaper, but it looks cheap compared to the earnings forecasts of these companies. The LSEG's latest consensus estimate of tech earnings growth for calendar year 2026 stands at 42.5%. This is up from 30.8% in January and almost double the previous six-month estimate. Barclays strategists said this week that they believe the U.S. will continue to grow faster than other major economies, and technology is a growth engine with a long-term outlook. The S&P 500's earnings per share for this year were raised to $321, up from $305. They also increased the price target of the index to 7650, up from 7400. This would mean gains of about 16% since Wednesday's closing. They added, "We are incrementally optimistic about U.S. stocks. However, the road is likely to remain bumpy until we turn a corner." OVERWEIGHT AND SEE It's notable that U.S. consensus earnings estimates have been steadily rising over the past two months, while the S&P 500 continues to fall. Does this indicate an unjustifiably positive outlook for U.S. corporations, or a market overreacting to the external environment? It looks as if it might be the former. Wall Street has performed better than its global peers since the Middle East war broke out four weeks ago. This is partly because of the relative strength in the U.S. for growth, technology, earnings and energy. This situation is unlikely to drastically change in the near future. In their outlook for the second quarter, HSBC Private bank analysts stated that they remain "overweight on U.S. equities" due to a "resilient growth," solid corporate earnings, and continued innovation." The fear of rising U.S. inflation - which is currently at 3% and climbing - shouldn't be a deterrent for America Inc., as higher prices should increase nominal earnings in particular in sectors that have strong pricing power. Holding an over-weight position in any equity market at this time is risky, but Wall Street may be the safest place to do so. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Rubio calls Iraqi Kurdish leader to discuss future of Kurdish people in Iraq
The 'State Department' reported that U.S. Secretary Marco?Rubio met with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Masrour Barzani on a Thursday. He reportedly expressed "gratitude" for the KRG allowing oil from Iraq to reach international markets, including Kurdistan in Iraq.
The State Department issued a statement saying that "the secretary expressed his gratitude to Kurdistan Regional Government, for allowing oil from Iraq to reach the global markets, including the 'Iraq Kurdistan Region.
The Iran War has risen oil prices and shook global markets.
The State Department said Rubio had "offered his sincere condolences to families of those Peshmerga who were killed in a?missile attack by Iran on March 24, and wished for a quick recovery to the injured."
A Peshmerga press release said that at least?six Kurdish Peshmerga soldiers were killed in a rocket strike on their base in Iraqi Kurdistan north of Erbil, and another 30 were wounded.
In a Peshmerga press release, the group said that Iran had carried out a "treacherous" attack. They also added?that six Iranian missiles hit a Peshmerga headquarters in Erbil north early on Tuesday morning.
The Iran War?began February 28, when Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran. Tehran responded to the attack by attacking Israel and Gulf States with U.S. bases. The joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as Israeli?attacks on Lebanon, have resulted in the deaths of thousands.
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has given a variety of goals and timelines for the war. These range from 'overthrowing Iran’s government' to destroying its military and missile capability. He said again on Thursday that he believes his side has won.
(source: Reuters)