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Trump's Venezuela gamble tests investors' appetite for geopolitical risks

Investors warn that the geopolitical risk may be underestimated by markets after Donald Trump threatened to take further action in America.

After President Trump announced that the U.S. will take over the oil-producing nation, investors held their nerve, despite oil prices falling modestly. Gold prices rose, however, due to safe-haven flows.

Trump's threats towards Colombia and Mexico, while Washington hasn't made such an aggressive intervention in Latin America since 1989 when it invaded Panama, highlighted the aggressive change in U.S. policies and brought geopolitical risks to the forefront for financial markets in the beginning of the year.

Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia Ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho Securities, Singapore.

The question is: Is the stability of LatAm as a whole at risk? It's then a completely different proposition, isn't? The flow-through effect and all could even be greater."

Analysts and investors stated that the calm market response to Maduro’s capture was because Venezuela's oil output relative to global production is small, and it would take many years of investment to catch up.

The impact of the military action on the sentiment will be far-reaching, but it could also unlock Venezuela's vast reserves of oil and boost risk assets in the long-term.

Trump said that American oil companies were ready to take on the difficult task of entering Venezuela to invest in order to restore production.

Tai Hui is the chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management for Asia-Pacific. He said that this event should have broader geopolitical ramifications. However, he believes that financial markets do not price such risks very accurately.

First test of the Markets in 2026

The U.S. stock market and the global markets have made a rapid start to 2019 after finishing 2025 at record highs. They had notched double-digit increases in a turbulent year marked by tariff wars and central bank policy, as well as simmering geopolitical conflicts.

As a result of Trump's willingness to use U.S. force in support of his policy agenda, the immediate impact will be felt in the?defence sector. Analysts say that the increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy will also weigh on the dollar's safe-haven status.

The U.S. Dollar firmed up a little on Monday, but it is coming off of its worst year in 2017. It will drop?over 9 percent against major currencies by 2025.

Investors are also concerned about the implications of Trump's actions on Venezuela for China's stance towards Taiwan, and if Washington will be more aggressive in its efforts to change regimes in Iran.

Li Fang-kuo is the chairman of Taiwan's Uni-President Stock Investment Advisory Unit. He said that investors do not have to worry about China?attacking Taiwan.

"Yes, China conducted military exercises around Taiwan. But we haven't seen anything like the months-long escalation that we witnessed from the U.S. against Venezuela."

Some analysts claim that investors are becoming accustomed to Trump's foreign policy and military strategies.

Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. He said that the U.S. actions in Venezuela are more of a geopolitical shock than an oil scare at this time. Investors tend to return to rates, earnings and positioning unless the action threatens the supply chain.

"We are in a regime that is dominated by geopolitics, and this is not surprising." (Reporting from Ankur Banerjee in Singapore, Rae Wee in Taipei and Gregor Stuart Hunter; Additional reporting from Faith Hung)

(source: Reuters)