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Saudi Arabia is in a financial crunch as the elite descends on Riyadh

Saudi Arabia is in a financial crunch as the elite descends on Riyadh

Next week, global financial titans will descend on Riyadh for Saudi Arabia's premier investment conference. This is the first time that they have been in the city since Donald Trump's return to the White House, and his taste for extravagant projects fits with the Kingdom's ambitious plans.

The Future Investment Initiative conference (FII) is being held against a backdrop that includes a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, simmering tensions in the region and a Kingdom under increasing pressure to prove its massive economic transformation.

In the past, the world's biggest oil exporter used the event to show off its ambitious plans and sign deals to attract foreign investors while hosting world leaders.

This year, attendees include the Colombian president Gustavo Petro as well as Larry Fink of BlackRock, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Citi's Jane Fraser who became co-chairwoman of the U.S. Saudi Business Council on Tuesday. The event also includes energy and tech heavyweights like Aramco's Amin Nasseer and Intel's Lip Bu Tan.

Test to see if investors will confirm their confidence

This event, which was held in Miami in February and attended by Trump, will serve as a litmus test for global investors to confirm their confidence in the Saudi economic system.

Riyadh promised to invest $600 billion when Trump visited in May. Saudi Arabia also seeks inward capital for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's economic plans to overcome hydrocarbon dependency.

Low oil prices, coupled with a budget deficit and the need to prioritize and reduce costs have forced the Kingdom to delay many projects.

"Trump's large-than-life personality and the Kingdom's love for big, attention-grabbing statements make a great match," said Alice Gower of London-based consultancy Azure Strategy.

The follow-through of headline pledges will likely be slow, especially at a moment when Riyadh faces pressure to complete large projects before hosting global events.

Gower stated that investors are still dealing with the reality of a state-dominated economic system, incoherent decision-making processes, skills shortages and heavy commitments to spending.

Deadlines for big events

The gathering of elites shows that Saudi Arabia is no longer shunned as it was only a few short years ago by many Western governments.

MbS was censured by the international community for crackingdown on dissent, and for killing journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia claims Khashoggi's death was the result of a rogue group. MbS, however, has accepted responsibility for it because it occurred on his watch.

Riyadh has made many promises, including hosting the Asian Cup in 2027, World Expo 2030 and both the Asian Games and soccer World Cup in 2034. For these events it must complete 15 stadiums -- 11 of them brand new. Riyadh has made promises to host World Expo 2030 in 2030, the Asian Cup 2027, and both the Asian Games 2034 and soccer World Cup 2034. For these events, 15 stadiums must be completed, 11 of which are brand-new.

Some projects related to these events have already been delayed. Most notably Trojena - a ski resort located in the futuristic city NEOM - a desert megacity intended to house nine million people near the Red Sea.

Saudi officials are reportedly considering delaying the Asian Winter Games until 2033. The NEOM "The Line", billed as a 170 km-long, 200-metre-wide indoor city, has had its work scaled back in order to complete a 2.4-km stretch that includes the World Cup Stadium.

Edward Bell, Chief Economist at Dubai's Emirates NBD, said: "There are a number of challenges associated with compressing everything into a short timeframe, as opposed to prioritising investments and pencilling them in over a long period."

Fitch Ratings reported this month that lower oil prices and heavy investments are straining the Kingdom's finances.

The Saudi government's 2026 pre-budget statement signalled a shift towards tighter spending after a sharper-than-expected widening of the 2025 deficit, now seen at 5.3% of gross domestic product.

Bell predicted that Saudi Arabia will likely run deficits for many years. He praised the government's transparency and realism about their needs.

A Saudi Finance Ministry spokesperson was asked for comment about the prioritisation projects. He said: "As previously stated, we continue to see the economy diversifying, powered by strong growth in the non-oil sector through the private sectors, and with a disciplined and strong fiscal position."

Citi and Goldman Sachs have expanded their regional offices and teams in Saudi Arabia.

The Public Investment Fund of almost $1 trillion, which is spearheading the economic transformation, is far from reaching its target of $100 billion annually in foreign direct investments by 2030.

Karen Young, a senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that it was a difficult target. She noted that the biggest FDI deals were still being made in the energy industry.

The kingdom has fallen behind in some projects but it has delivered others, notably those headed by luxury resort developer Red Sea Global.

RSG CEO John Pagano who is also a member of the board of NEOM said that changes will be made to ensure delivery deadlines for mega projects.

He added, "The PIF and the country are working to ensure that we meet our commitments." Reporting by Federico Maccioni, Rachna uppal and Maha El Dahan Editing by Peter Graff and Maha El Dahan

(source: Reuters)