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Iron ore prices slip on high inventories despite steady production
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday as inventories were high, indicating a steady production of blast furnaces. The most traded May iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the daytime session down 1.73%, closing at 768.5 Yuan ($110.72), a metric tonne. This was?the fourth consecutive session of decline. As of 0707 GMT, the benchmark March iron ore on the Singapore Exchange had fallen by 1.71% to $100.75 per tonne. Data from the Shanghai Metals Market, released on Wednesday, showed that the blast furnace utilization rate increased slightly, and daily hot metal production increased by?21,000 tonnes week-on-week. Iron ore inventories were high, and most steel mills had completed their pre-Lunar New Year stocking. Prior to the Lunar?New?Year, a number of electric-arc furnaces in Anhui and Yunnan - Guizhou have scheduled maintenance. Profitability concerns are driving them to restart production sooner than expected. Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, were down by 2.25% and 0.77 percent, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar fell by 0.29%; hot-rolled coils dropped 0.4%, and wire rods lost 1.1%. Stainless steel, meanwhile, rose by 0.69%.
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Greenpeace protests in Milan when the Olympic torch arrives
Greenpeace, an environmental group, staged a demonstration in front of Milan’s main cathedral Thursday. This was the day that the Olympic torch had arrived in the city. The installation showed the Olympic rings dripping with black oil. It was a visual denial of the companies that it accused of contributing to global heating and endangering winter sports which depend on cold temperatures. One of the banners posted in front of Milan’s Duomo Cathedral (cathedral), in the middle of the city, read: "Kick Polluters Out of the Games." Greenpeace has called on the organisers of Milano Cortina to break ties with Eni after it filed a lawsuit over climate change. The report argues that Eni's fossil fuel operations undermine efforts to protect snow-based sports as temperatures increase. Winter Olympics is scheduled to take place from February 6 through 22. Eni, a state-controlled company, is one of the Games’ top domestic sponsors. Eni stated that it "shares" the importance of addressing the climate change and will continue to invest in the energy transition as part of its goal of reaching net-zero emission by 2050. The Olympic flame reached northern Milan on Thursday after it began its journey across Italy. It was lit in Rome in December. Eni's headquarters was to be passed by later in the day. The torch was designed to create excitement in Italy ahead of the Games 2026. It has now travelled through 110 Italian provinces. Gazzetta Sport reported that the Olympic ski champions of Italy, Alberto Tomba and Deborah Compagnoni, will light the cauldrons on Friday. (Reporting and editing by Keith Weir, Giselda Vasgnoni)
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Anglo American cuts its 2026 copper production guidance by 10% and reports a 10% decline in copper output for 2025
Anglo American, a global miner, announced on Thursday a 10% decline in its?copper output last year, to 695,000 tons. This is the lower end of their guidance. They also cut their 2026 forecast for?the transitional metal. The London-listed company now expects copper production in 2026 to range between 700,000- 760,000 tons. This is down from the previous forecast of 760,000-820,000 tonnes, due partly to lower production at its Chilean mine, Collahuasi. Anglo expects to record charges of around $200 million for the second half 2025 in relation to "rehabilitation provisions" at its Chile copper operation. The London-listed company announced in September a plan to merge with Canada's Teck Resources for $53 billion, all-stock and no-premium. This would make the miner the fifth largest copper producer in world. The metal is used in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. Both companies have been undergoing significant restructuring in the last few years, largely due to previous takeover attempts. Anglo has refocused on copper and ore while trying to sell or spin-off its struggling De Beers business as well as its nickel and metallurgical coke assets. All of these divestments have not yet been completed. Duncan Wanblad, CEO of the company, said in a Thursday statement that he was "committed to see our portfolio transformation to its conclusion". He added that each sale or separation process would be progressed. Anglo has said that it is reviewing the value for the De Beers diamonds after the 2025 production of rough?diamonds dropped by 12%, to 21.7 millions carats. It has lowered its 2026 production forecast to a range between 21 million and 26 million carats from 26 million to 29, as the demand is low and inventories are high. De Beers is also expected to report a loss by 2025. Anglo will announce its financial results for 2025 on February 20, 2019.
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ArcelorMittal South Africa reduces its loss after closing long-stack steel operations
ArcelorMittal South Africa announced?on?Thursday that it had narrowed its loss for the full year by 34% due to lower raw material prices and after closing down its money-losing, long steel business. Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest steelmaker reported a headline loss in the year ending December 2025 of 3.355 billion Rand ($207.86million), compared to a loss of 5.1 billion Rand the previous year. South Africa's unit of global steelmaker ArcelorMittal is struggling with a weak local market, high electricity prices and competition from mini-mills for recycling scrap metals in the country as well as imports from China. ArcelorMittal South Africa's Luxembourg-headquartered parent company, however, on ?Thursday reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.59 billion for ?the fourth quarter, beating analysts' ?average estimate of $1.51 billion. The South African unit reported that its crude steel sales and production were down by 12%, to 2.3 and 2 million tons respectively. The realised steel price was 5% lower, in rands and 3% less in dollars. ArcelorMittal South Africa shut down its long steel plants last year to reduce losses. In its results announcement, the company said that long-steel operations had a neutral impact on?EBITDA for 2025 after a loss of 1.7 billion rands in 2024. The company confirmed the date of January 22. With the state-owned Industrial Development Corporation, that could lead to a possible transaction. Bloomberg reported that ArcelorMittal South Africa, whose?second largest shareholder is IDC with 8.2% of the shares, had re-opened talks after the initial negotiations. Stalled Last year, there was a valuation. ArcelorMittal South Africa stated that the discussions are continuing and will shape its outlook in 2026, if successful.
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Sources: Nippon Steel is considering a convertible bond issue of $3.2 billion, according to sources
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Nippon Steel, Japan's largest steel company, is considering the sale of up to?500 billion yen ($3.2billion) in convertible bonds. This would be a transaction of unprecedented size in Japan. Sources said that the steelmaker was considering making a decision this month. They declined to name them as the information wasn't public. Reporting the potential issuance for the first. Nippon Steel stated in a press release that nothing had been decided. Following the release of this report, the company's shares fell by 2%. According to LSEG, at 500 billion yen the convertible bond issuance would be largest of its kind in Japan. One source said that the issuance amount could be reduced, or the plan could be re-evaluated. Sources said that Nippon Steel prefers to issue the convertible bonds in order to avoid a capital raise which would result in immediate share dilution. Also, as domestic interest rates are rising, they can be issued as zero-coupon bond. At a set price, convertible bonds can be turned into shares. The steelmaker needs capital to expand its overseas business, including in the U.S.A. and India?and for decarbonisation efforts. Sources?stated that the company needs long-term financing to replace a 2 trillion yen bridge loan taken out last year for its acquisition by U.S. Steel. Steelmaker's performance has declined due to tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imports of steel and the competition from Chinese exports. Sources also claim that the Japan?Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC) is looking at lending Nippon Steel funds totaling approximately 1 trillion yen (6.37 billion dollars). JBIC stated in a press release that it would not be commenting on specific cases.
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Aurubis' profit falls on lower copper refining costs
Aurubis, Europe's biggest copper producer, reported on Thursday a?first-quarter operating core profit? that was slightly below the?market expectation?. This was due to lower treatment and refinement charges for smelting Copper Concentrates and a maintenance shut down at its Hamburg facility. The operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization for the first quarter fell from 184 millions euros to 164million euros (193million euros) compared with a year earlier. This was slightly below the 169 million euro estimate of analysts in a poll provided by the company. Hamburg-based company?said that its net cash flow was -8 millions euros for the first quarter, a significant decrease from the previous?year’s 178million euros. It said in a?presentation that this was due to?a temporary rise in working capital and increased metal prices levels. Toralf haag, the chief executive of the company, said that despite a volatile geopolitical climate and a good result in metals markets as well as stable product markets for its products, it was a positive outcome. Aurubis produces 1.2 million metric tonnes of copper cathodes, 2 million tons sulphuric acids, and other metals such as gold, silver, and tin. Analysts expect the bull run in gold to continue. Aurubis raised its forecast for 2025/26 by a few million euros on January 28. The previous estimate was for an EBT of between 300 and 400 million euros in the fiscal year of 2025/26. The German company said that its EBT for the first quarter was 105 million euro.
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Copper, precious metals and oil are down as global tensions decrease;
The prices of commodities such as crude oil, silver, and gold, all fell on Thursday after the leaders of China, the United States, and Iran spoke by phone. Investors reduced their positions due to a stronger dollar in which commodities are priced. Silver fell almost 15%, while gold, crude and copper dropped about 2%. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at broker IG. He said, "We have seen extreme volatility this week in precious metals, other commodities, and we are now experiencing some aftershocks." He added that "talks between Iran and United States seem to be on track again, which has reduced some of the geopolitical premium in commodity markets, especially oil." The tensions in the trade front also eased after the call between Trump & Xi. Investors are tempted to sell gold when it is at these levels. The dollar was stable at the beginning of Asian trading ahead of the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England. Both are expected to hold rates later in the day. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, traded at a near-two-week high. The dollar's strength makes commodities more expensive for buyers of other currencies. Prices dropped on Monday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh's nomination as the new Fed chair. This triggered a sell-off of risk assets. The dollar is boosted by a hawkish outlook from the U.S. central banks, while gold and silver are at a higher cost of opportunity. VOLATILE COMPONENTS Spot silver also plunged from its earlier session high of?nearly one week. Last week, silver reached a new record of $121.64 and gold reached a record of $5,594.82 per ounce. Christopher Wong is a strategist with OCBC. He said, "Sentiment has become soggy in?most asset categories, as losses feed into each other and create a feedback loop that reinforces itself amid low market liquidity." He added that precious metals and cryptocurrencies, as well as regional equity, reflect such expectations. After the U.S. agreed to hold talks with Iran in Oman, the oil prices dropped about 2%. This eased fears of a possible military conflict disrupting supply from the Middle East's key producing region. Copper was also under pressure due to concerns about demand and the increasing stock in London Metal Exchange warehouses. The metal, which is widely used in the construction industry, had already recovered from a two session slump. This was aided by China's plans to increase its strategic copper reserves. Soybeans have bucked trend and reached a two-month peak, spurred by Trump's comments that China may consider buying cargoes of soybeans from the United States. High inventories also contributed to a 2% decline in iron ore. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Additional reporting in Bengaluru by Ishaan arora; Reporting by Naveen Thural)
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Sources: Nippon Steel is considering a convertible bond issue of $3.2 billion, according to sources
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Japan's Nippon Steel may sell convertible bonds worth up to 500 billion yen (about $3 billion), in the largest transaction of its kind ever in Japan. Sources declined to name themselves as they did not want the information made public. Reports the potential issue for the first. Nippon Steel stated in a press release that "nothing is decided yet". Following the release of the report, shares in the company fell by 6%. According to LSEG data, at 500 billion yen the convertible bond issuance would be the largest in Japan. One source said that the issuance amount could be reduced, or the plan reconsidered. Sources said that Nippon Steel prefers to issue the convertible bonds in order to avoid a capital raise which would result in immediate share dilution. Also, as domestic interest rates are rising, they can be issued as zero-coupon bond. Convertible bonds are able to be converted into shares for a set price. The steelmaker needs capital to expand its overseas business, including in the U.S. and India, as well as for decarbonisation projects. Sources said that the company needs long-term financing to replace its?bridge loan? it took out last year for its acquisition by U.S. Steel, which totaled around 2 trillion yen. Steelmaker's performance has declined due to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports of steel and the competition from Chinese exports. Sources also stated that the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) is looking at lending funds totaling approximately 1 trillion yen (6.37 billion dollars) to Nippon Steel. JBIC didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.
Saudi Arabia is in a financial crunch as the elite descends on Riyadh
Next week, global financial titans will descend on Riyadh for Saudi Arabia's premier investment conference. This is the first time that they have been in the city since Donald Trump's return to the White House, and his taste for extravagant projects fits with the Kingdom's ambitious plans.
The Future Investment Initiative conference (FII) is being held against a backdrop that includes a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, simmering tensions in the region and a Kingdom under increasing pressure to prove its massive economic transformation.
In the past, the world's biggest oil exporter used the event to show off its ambitious plans and sign deals to attract foreign investors while hosting world leaders.
This year, attendees include the Colombian president Gustavo Petro as well as Larry Fink of BlackRock, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Citi's Jane Fraser who became co-chairwoman of the U.S. Saudi Business Council on Tuesday. The event also includes energy and tech heavyweights like Aramco's Amin Nasseer and Intel's Lip Bu Tan.
Test to see if investors will confirm their confidence
This event, which was held in Miami in February and attended by Trump, will serve as a litmus test for global investors to confirm their confidence in the Saudi economic system.
Riyadh promised to invest $600 billion when Trump visited in May. Saudi Arabia also seeks inward capital for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's economic plans to overcome hydrocarbon dependency.
Low oil prices, coupled with a budget deficit and the need to prioritize and reduce costs have forced the Kingdom to delay many projects.
"Trump's large-than-life personality and the Kingdom's love for big, attention-grabbing statements make a great match," said Alice Gower of London-based consultancy Azure Strategy.
The follow-through of headline pledges will likely be slow, especially at a moment when Riyadh faces pressure to complete large projects before hosting global events.
Gower stated that investors are still dealing with the reality of a state-dominated economic system, incoherent decision-making processes, skills shortages and heavy commitments to spending.
Deadlines for big events
The gathering of elites shows that Saudi Arabia is no longer shunned as it was only a few short years ago by many Western governments.
MbS was censured by the international community for crackingdown on dissent, and for killing journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Saudi Arabia claims Khashoggi's death was the result of a rogue group. MbS, however, has accepted responsibility for it because it occurred on his watch.
Riyadh has made many promises, including hosting the Asian Cup in 2027, World Expo 2030 and both the Asian Games and soccer World Cup in 2034. For these events it must complete 15 stadiums -- 11 of them brand new. Riyadh has made promises to host World Expo 2030 in 2030, the Asian Cup 2027, and both the Asian Games 2034 and soccer World Cup 2034. For these events, 15 stadiums must be completed, 11 of which are brand-new.
Some projects related to these events have already been delayed. Most notably Trojena - a ski resort located in the futuristic city NEOM - a desert megacity intended to house nine million people near the Red Sea.
Saudi officials are reportedly considering delaying the Asian Winter Games until 2033. The NEOM "The Line", billed as a 170 km-long, 200-metre-wide indoor city, has had its work scaled back in order to complete a 2.4-km stretch that includes the World Cup Stadium.
Edward Bell, Chief Economist at Dubai's Emirates NBD, said: "There are a number of challenges associated with compressing everything into a short timeframe, as opposed to prioritising investments and pencilling them in over a long period."
Fitch Ratings reported this month that lower oil prices and heavy investments are straining the Kingdom's finances.
The Saudi government's 2026 pre-budget statement signalled a shift towards tighter spending after a sharper-than-expected widening of the 2025 deficit, now seen at 5.3% of gross domestic product.
Bell predicted that Saudi Arabia will likely run deficits for many years. He praised the government's transparency and realism about their needs.
A Saudi Finance Ministry spokesperson was asked for comment about the prioritisation projects. He said: "As previously stated, we continue to see the economy diversifying, powered by strong growth in the non-oil sector through the private sectors, and with a disciplined and strong fiscal position."
Citi and Goldman Sachs have expanded their regional offices and teams in Saudi Arabia.
The Public Investment Fund of almost $1 trillion, which is spearheading the economic transformation, is far from reaching its target of $100 billion annually in foreign direct investments by 2030.
Karen Young, a senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that it was a difficult target. She noted that the biggest FDI deals were still being made in the energy industry.
The kingdom has fallen behind in some projects but it has delivered others, notably those headed by luxury resort developer Red Sea Global.
RSG CEO John Pagano who is also a member of the board of NEOM said that changes will be made to ensure delivery deadlines for mega projects.
He added, "The PIF and the country are working to ensure that we meet our commitments." Reporting by Federico Maccioni, Rachna uppal and Maha El Dahan Editing by Peter Graff and Maha El Dahan
(source: Reuters)