Latest News

Brent Oil Market Structure: Physical markets reflect concerns about supply glut

The discount between the Prompt Brent futures and six-month contracts reached its highest level since December 2023, Monday. This reflects a growing belief that there is enough supply as OPEC+ producers and others increase their output.

According to traders and LSEG, weakness was also seen on the physical crude oil market in Europe and Africa as a result of a plentiful supply and a cooling season demand in preparation for winter in the northern hemisphere.

Brent's first-month contract was as low as 56 cents per barrel below the contract to deliver in six months The first discount since May was implemented on 16 October.

The spread between the WTI Crude Futures Contract and its major U.S. counterpart The trader also traded in contango after moving towards this structure last week.

MARKET WEAKENS ON SURPLUS

A market structure called contango, which is characterized by a lower price for immediate delivery than for later deliveries, indicates that the perception is that supply will be abundant in the near term and demand will weaken.

The weaker Brent/WTI structure is due to the decisions of OPEC+ to increase oil production more quickly, and the resilient production by the U.S., and other non-OPEC+ nations, according Tamas Varga. Analyst at brokerage PVM.

Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB, said that "more weakness is to come" as oil from the sea arrives in ports. The Middle East OPEC countries are boosting exports, along with lower consumption after the summer.

Both contracts spent most of the year with the opposite structure. This is called backwardation. In this case, the prices for the futures are higher than the current price. This reflects the perception of a tight supply in the near term and solid demand.

Brent's 6-month spread briefly sat in contango during May. After Israel's attack on Iran's nucleotide facilities, it reversed and climbed to $7.50, its highest level since October 2023. It was in positive territory until last week as supply risks were supportive.

Contangos encourage traders to store oil in order to sell it at a higher price later.

PHYSICAL MARKET ALSO SHOWS WEAKNESS

Also, the North Sea physical oil markets, which support the Brent futures contracts and the Brent physical benchmark used for pricing about two thirds of world oil, are weakening.

Brent swaps for short-term, also known as contracts for differences (CFDs), entered contango Friday in the first three weeks of contract. This was a sign that there is more supply.

Price differential between North Sea Forties and Brent dated According to LSEG, Brent oil plus 35 cents reached a low of three weeks last week.

West African crude markets are experiencing a decline in grades due to a weakening of demand from Europe and Asia, and fierce competition from Latin American crudes.

The traders said that November loading programs have already begun to appear for the 21-35 Angolan cargoes and 35 Nigerian cargoes that remain unsold.

West African grades are typically traded a month ahead of most other grades, giving traders a good indication of the future of the physical market. (Reporting and editing by Alex Lawler in London and Jan Harvey.

(source: Reuters)