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Bahrain's economy grows by 3.4% in the fourth quarter, driven by non-oil growth

The finance ministry reported on Tuesday that the economy of Bahrain grew by 3.4% compared to the same period a year ago.

Data from the Information and eGovernment Authority of the Gulf nation showed that growth was primarily driven by a 4,6% increase in non oil activities. Oil activities fell by 3,5% during the same time period.

According to the statement, Bahrain's total real gross domestic product will grow by 2.6% in 2024.

According to the Ministry's projections, Bahrain's GDP real is expected to increase by 2.7% between 2025 and 2026, mainly due to an expansion of 3.4% in non-oil related activities that coincides with the implementation of the Bapco Modernization Programme.

The Bapco Modernization Program is one of Bahrain’s largest energy investments. It will increase refinery production, which in turn, should boost fiscal revenues, as part of efforts to diversify Bahrain's economy.

The growth is expected to reach 3,3% by 2026. This will be supported by an increase of 3.9% in non-oil activity.

The ministry stated that "However the forecasts will continue to be closely monitored and updated in order to take into account the global uncertainty, escalating instability and ongoing turmoil which may impact the economic projections."

S&P Global, a global rating agency, downgraded Bahrain’s outlook from “stable” to “negative” last month. The agency cited ongoing market volatility as well as weaker financing conditions which could increase Bahrain’s interest burden.

The escalating trade tensions are adding to the global economic uncertainty. They have clouded macroeconomic forecasts, and they are affecting investor and policymaker trust around the globe.

The International Monetary Fund lowered its growth forecasts for 2025 in the Middle East and North Africa to 2.6% earlier this month. It cited uncertainties arising from a trade war on a global scale and lower oil prices.

Gulf Cooperation Council economies, which include Bahrain, Kuwait Oman, Qatar Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates, are expected to grow, but at a slower rate than predicted in October.

The GCC is accelerating their diversification. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and the UAE's push towards tourism and manufacturing and Bahrain's investments in energy and finance infrastructure are all designed to wean their economies off of oil. (Reporting by Manya Saini in Dubai; Editing by Joe Bavier)

(source: Reuters)