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What's behind Libya's oil shutdown

Libya's most current oil shutdown has risen international energy prices. This explains the situation.

HOW DID WE GET HERE? Since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that fell Muammar Gaddafi and thrust Libya into mayhem, access to its oil wealth has actually become the biggest prize for all political factions and armed groups.

Both little regional groups and major nationwide ones have previously shut down oil production as a technique to demand a. bigger share of state income or political changes.

Libya's current political stalemate emerged from the. failing peace process that followed a split in 2014 between. warring eastern and western factions that set up rival. governments. In 2020, there was a ceasefire with the collapse of an eastern. attack on Tripoli and a move towards reunifying the state in. the run-up to a prepared election in December 2021 under. Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah's interim Government of National Unity. That effort failed leaving eastern and western factions at. loggerheads once again and contending over access to state energy. incomes, with the current standoff concentrated on control of the. Central Bank of Libya (CBL).

Eastern factions, consisting of your house of Representatives. ( HoR) parliament led by speaker Aguila Saleh and Libyan National. Army (LNA) under leader Khalifa Haftar, oppose the. Tripoli-based Presidency Council's bid to oust CBL guv. Sadiq al-Kabir.

WHO IS BLOCKADING LIBYAN OIL CENTERS?

For much of Kabir's 13-year tenure as CBL governor, eastern. factions wished to ditch him and for a while they backed an. alternate guv heading a parallel reserve bank based in the. east. However it is now they who require he remain in place.

HoR speaker Saleh cautioned recently of an oil shutdown if. Kabir was deposed.

On Sunday, protest groups in the oil regions, often a front. in the last few years for eastern authorities, stated they were. inhabiting energy fields and shutting them down.

The HoR then issued a statement to state that Libya might not. produce or export any oil since of the demonstrations.

Haftar, whose LNA remains in military control of all the. areas where the shutdowns are taking place and who analysts state. has actually established a rewarding alliance with Kabir in current months,. has called the transfer to replace him unlawful.

WHAT DO THEY WANT?

Simply put, eastern factions have one easy need: return. Kabir to his post as CBL guv.

Behind that position is the limitless tussle among competing Libyan. factions for control of energy revenues.

The last significant shutdown, in 2022, ended with Prime Minister. Dbeibah in Tripoli replacing the veteran National Oil. Corporation head Mustafa Sanallah with Farhat Bengdara, long. viewed as near Haftar.

That relocation assisted in a tacit alliance of convenience. between Dbeibah in the west and Haftar in the east, with looser. controls over Libya's rewarding oil sector and fuel imports, and. state money spent lavishly in spending throughout the country.

When Kabir fell out with Dbeibah last year and began. tightening the Federal government of National Unity's bag strings, the. phase was set for a conflict.

EXISTS ANY POSSIBILITY OF A DEAL?

Nobody looks happy to back down now.

Eastern factions are wagering that by depriving the main. bank of any more funds, and by making it harder for the bank to. work internationally by contesting its legitimacy, the Tripoli. authorities will be forced to collapse.

The central bank is the sole legal repository for Libyan oil. incomes and it pays state wages throughout the country. If those. functions are jeopardized by the current crisis, Libyans will. quickly feel the pinch.

However, the discomfort will affect both sides and Tripoli. authorities might think the option of backing down and in. result ceding any influence over the bank, the sole source of. state costs, would be worse. On the other hand, Libya's larger political conflict reveals no sign of. resolution and worldwide diplomacy to solve it through. elections has stalled.

If either side is contemplating armed action to fix the. disagreement over the central bank, worse might be in shop.

HOW LONG COULD AN OIL BLOCKADE LAST?

Oil blockades have ended up being a familiar strategy in Libya's. chaotic, violent politics because the 2011 ousting of Gaddafi.

Nevertheless, while smaller localised shutdowns have in some cases. been resolved within days, larger blockades connected to major. political or military battles have often lasted months. The longest major blockade, when Haftar stopped nearly all. production in 2020 for 8 months, was just dealt with as part. of a larger agreement when his assault on Tripoli collapsed.

(source: Reuters)