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IEA and OPEC both cut their oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to trade tensions

IEA and OPEC both cut their oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to trade tensions

The International Energy Agency has cut its projection for global oil demand growth this year. It cited escalating tensions in trade, a day following a similar move by the producer group OPEC.

The move by the IEA - which advises industrialised nations - is the latest indicator that oil demand is weakening as a result of U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs on trade, which has already caused a steep drop in oil prices in this month.

The IEA reported in a report that the world oil demand will increase by 730,000 barrels a day this year, a significant drop from the 1.03 million bpd forecast last month.

The IEA stated that "the deteriorating outlook of the global economy, coupled with the sudden and sharp escalation of trade tensions early in April, has prompted a downward revision to our forecast for growth in oil demand this year."

The United States and China account for about half of the downgrade, while the rest is accounted for by trade-oriented Asian countries.

The IEA's first look at the year 2026 predicted a further decline in global demand to 690 000 bpd.

The IEA has reduced its forecast for 2025, following a similar decision made by OPEC Monday. However, the Paris-based IEA is making a more dramatic reduction.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered their forecasts of oil demand for this year and the next, to 1,30 million bpd each. Both figures were down by 150,000 bpd compared to last month.

OPEC is more optimistic than the industry and expects oil consumption to continue to rise for many years. The IEA believes that oil demand will peak this decade, as the world shifts to cleaner fuels. (Reporting and editing by Kirsty Donovan, David Holmes, and Alex Lawler)

(source: Reuters)