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Britain strengthens diplomatic relations with Venezuela
Britain announced on Tuesday that it would be upgrading its diplomatic relations with Venezuela by appointing an ambassador in the country. This move, it claimed, would enhance Britain's ability to support a democratic transition. In a written statement to the parliament, the government stated that "this decision is part a broader international reengagement." Britain stated that the move was not an endorsement of Venezuela's disputed election of 2024 or any political party, but rather reflected its longstanding policy to maintain?relations? with the Venezuelan state. After the U.S. ousted Nicolas Maduro from power in January, the government of acting President Delcy Rodriguez is now in charge. Venezuela welcomed the decision. Oliver Blanco said that Caracas appreciated Britain's'move' to improve diplomatic relations. Blanco stated that "we reaffirm our willingness to further a respectful dialogue and promote cooperation on areas of common interest to both countries, and to help'recover resources which?rightfully belongs to the Venezuelan people."
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Israeli strikes in Gaza killed two people including a child.
Health officials in Gaza said that Israeli airstrikes on a vehicle Tuesday killed at least two Palestinians including a child and injured seven others. The strikes occurred in Sheikh Radwan, a neighbourhood located north of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli military claimed it had?struck a?militant? in the area without providing any further details. Witnesses said that some of the casualties were caused by a second strike which hit near people who had rushed to assist in the rescue. The video was not immediately verified, but it showed that a missile had exploded near at least five people. Palestinians held funerals for two Palestinians who were killed in Israeli airstrikes a day earlier, Ahmed Al-Batsh Rafat Zummar. According to Hamas and Israeli military sources, Batsh was the local Hamas commander. Medical personnel said that Batsh was killed in an attack against his vehicle in the northern Gaza Strip. In separate statements, the Israeli military claimed that both men were killed and described Zummar as a Hamas leader. Hamas did not immediately comment on Zummar’s affiliation. In Gaza City, Al Shifa Hospital, relatives and friends bid farewell to Batsh’s body. It was draped in a Hamas flag and a white shroud. On top of the corpse, an M16 assault weapon was placed. Khalil al-Batsh said that Israel believed it would eliminate the spirit of jihad and resistance within us. At the funeral, he said: "I tell them this cowardly operation strengthens our people’s determination to keep on going down this path." A U.S.-backed ceasefire in October 2025 halted the large-scale fighting?in Gaza. However, it did not end Israeli strikes, and little progress has been made on the?steps toward permanent peace. Hamas claims that Israel violated the ceasefire, and undermined efforts to implement U.S. president Donald Trump's plan?to resolve the Gaza conflict. This includes the Israeli removal from the Gaza Strip and the disarmament by Hamas. Israel claims that Hamas violated the agreement. According to Gaza's health officials, more than 1,300 Palestinians (mostly civilians) have died since the ceasefire came into effect. The Israeli military, however, claims that four Israeli soldiers were killed. Hamas doesn't usually reveal information about the deaths of its fighters.
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Investors' appetite for IPO tests is tested by Dangote's profits in Europe
Nigeria's Dangote Oil Refinery has emerged as one of the key suppliers of fuels to Europe, following disruptions in Middle East exports. This highlights its growing influence on global fuel markets. It also generated a record profit before its debut at the stock exchange. According to the prospectus of the Lagos refinery, by increasing?fuel?exports during this crisis, the company has been able to achieve a profit of 1.82 billion dollars in the first six months of 2026, on revenues of over $13 billion. This is a significant improvement from the $476 million loss it suffered in 2025 due to conflict-related disruptions that increased the demand for the refinery's exports. Dangote’s refinery, built to end Nigeria’s dependence on imported oil, is influencing global fuel flow at a time when the market is under stress. The trend will continue, as Middle East disruptions persist and refinery capacity is expanded. Janiv Shah, Rystad Energy, said that "Dangote will likely increase its role in the upcoming years". The gasoline industry will have the largest structural impact. "Jet fuel and diesel are also growing in importance". In response to U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz at the end February. Europe lost a quarter its diesel and jet fuel supply. Fuel inventories at the oil trading hub in Northwest Europe have plummeted to their lowest levels in 12 years as a result of the Middle East's drop in exports. According to Kpler, Europe imported around 80,000 barrels of jet fuel per day from Dangote in the second quarter. This is equivalent to 13% of the supply shortage and makes the refinery Africa's biggest supplier of fuel. The data shows that only the U.S. accounted for more imports from Europe than Nigeria during this time period. "Without Dangote Europe would have still sourced fuel, but at a much higher clearing price. Shah of Rystad said that there could have been deeper stock draws. REFINERY HELPS TO SATISFY TIGHT MARKET Dangote has also increased exports of gasoil and diesel, which are both?part of a group known as middle distillates of fuels. Kpler reports that Dangote's exports of diesel and gasoil have increased by 23%, to 488,000 bpd as of 2026. Sumit Ritolia, Kpler analyst, said that "these barrels have been increasingly supplying West Africa and Europe where they helped ease an otherwise tight middle distillate market". Dangote's influence on the gasoline flow has been significant since Dangote started operating in 2024. Kpler reports that Dangote has produced between 270,000 and 300,000 barrels per day of gasoline since 2026. Nigerian imports have fallen from around 400,000 bpd to 83,000 bpd. Europe has traditionally provided the majority of this volume in a trade worth $17 billion per year. Dangote wants to double its capacity to 1.4m bpd in 2029. This would make the refinery the second-largest in the world, alongside Reliance’s Jamnagar facility. When asked about refinery expansion plans, Chief Executive David Bird said that a?diesel hydratreater will allow Dangote a greater range of diesel specifications to be exported. He said, "We must ensure that we can sell our product anywhere in the globe, any time of the year."
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Germany's Merz promises relief plan 'soon' as pump prices hit record
The embattled German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is under pressure to respond to citizens' concerns ahead of an upcoming state election, promised that he would be bringing "very soon" proposals to protect consumers from record fuel prices. Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU), which are largely rural, face the prospect of their worst ever state election results in Mecklenburg/Western Pomerania. Merz said at a business conference that the price of a litre E10 gasoline in the United States had reached a record of EUR2.286 per gallon. Prices have increased since the conflict in the Middle East began late February. Merz did not give details on how an intervention would work, but he said that he was consulting the 16 federal states in Berlin and his coalition partners. Lars Klingbeil of the Finance Ministry, who will be 'pressing for a windfall-tax on European energy companies at an informal meeting of EU finance ministers said that he didn't know Merz’s proposals, but it was important to make a decision quickly. The CDU-led Economy Ministry has resisted the idea of a price ceiling, which is supported by Klingbeil’s Social Democrats. They claim it would be hard to implement. In May and June of this year, the government reduced energy taxes by 17 cents a litre. STATE PREMIER CALLS FOR A PRICE CAP Merz has promised to better connect with voters following his party's?trouncement in a state election held this month, which handed an historic victory to the far-right Alternative for Germany. According to a source within the party, the chancellor has said repeatedly that he intends to serve his entire four-year term. His conservatives will meet on Sunday in order to rally around him. Manuela Schwesig is the SPD state premier for Mecklenburg/Western Pomerania, hoping to win a second term. She has accused Merz of standing aside while fuel prices rise, and she wants a national fuel price cap, based on Luxembourg's model. ($1 = 0.8665 euros)
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ADNOC Trading sources claim that it buys millions barrels of Iraqi crude.
Three people with knowledge of the matter said that Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC), a trading company, has purchased millions of barrels at a discount from Iraq's?state?oil firm. This is an expansion of its role in the market amid the disruptions caused by the Iran War. Two Iraqi energy sources reported that the state-owned company of the United Arab Emirates, through its trading division, was the largest lifter of Iraqi oil in August and in September. This helped boost Iraqi exports, which had been severely curtailed during the early months of the conflict. ADNOC has agreed to purchase 32 million Iraqi barges in August, at discounts of $24.90 to 27% per barrel. A further 40 million barrels will be purchased in September. This includes 10 million?barrels for $18 a barrel and 30 million barrels with a discount of $25, according to one Iraqi source. According to the second Iraqi source, while Iraq's state oil marketing organisation SOMO allocated ADNOC 32 millions barrels in august, the UAE giant lifted only 20 million barrels because of export restrictions and Basra Oil Company’s inability to secure enough crude. ADNOC has so far lifted 14 millions Iraqi barrels in September, a person told me. A third source claimed that ADNOC bought 20 million barrels from the state-owned SOMO of?Iraq in tenders for a discount between $25 and $27 per barrel. Other companies also buy Iraqi crude. Trade sources said that SOMO had offered August-loading shipments at steep discounts. This attracted other buyers, including Chinese state giants PetroChina and Zhenhua oil, TotalEnergies and Vitol as well as Trafigura Mercuria, and Cathay Petroleum. Iran's official news agency IRNA said that Iran had granted permission to a number of oil tankers transporting Iraqi crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz last month after Baghdad repeatedly requested it through different channels. Iraq's exports were severely curtailed during the early months of the war, in part due to its location on the top of Gulf and the absence of its own shipping fleet. ADNOC, the state-owned oil company, has become more agile since the start of the war. It uses an expanding fleet of tankers as well as a pipe to Fujairah in order to move oil out of the Gulf of Aden and across the Strait of Hormuz. Put the past behind them Despite the attacks on ADNOC tanks, 'Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian met with UAE crown prince Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the BRICS Summit in New Delhi on Sunday, stating that the two sides agreed to 'put the past behind them. According to Kpler, Iraq exported about 2 million barrels per day in this month. This is down from the 2.354 millions bpd of August but higher than the 1.374million bpd of July. According to Kpler, UAE crude exports rose to 3.236 millions bpd last month. This is up from 2.886million bpd during August and 2.871million bpd during July. One of three sources stated that ADNOC intends to process the majority of crude oil purchased from other Gulf producers and sell it more on the international market.
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Sources say that ADNOC, the UAE's oil company, buys millions barrels of Iraqi crude.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC), a trading company, has purchased millions of barrels at a discount from Iraq's oil company, according to three people who are familiar with the situation. This is a result of the Iran War, which has caused supply disruptions. Two Iraqi energy sources reported that the state company's trading arm was the largest lifter of Iraqi oil in August and in September. This helped boost Iraqi exports, which had been severely curtailed during the early months of the conflict. ADNOC has agreed to purchase 32 million Iraqi barges in August, at discounts of $24.90 to 27% per barrel. A further 40 million barrels will be purchased in September. This includes?10,000,000 barrels for $18 a barrel and 30,000,000 barrels for $25, according to one Iraqi source. According to the second Iraqi source, 'while Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organisation SOMO allocated ADNOC 32 millions barrels in August due to export restrictions and Basra Oil Company's inability secure enough crude', the UAE giant lifted only 20 million barrels. ADNOC has so far lifted 14 millions Iraqi barrels in September, a person told me. A third source stated that ADNOC purchased about 20 million barrels?crude' from Iraqi state-owned SOMO through tenders, at a discount between $25 and $27 per barrel for the lifting of September to October. Other companies are also buying Iraqi oil. SOMO offered August loading?cargoes for steep discounts to attract other buyers, including Chinese state-majors PetroChina and Zhenhua oil, TotalEnergies and Vitol as well as Trafigura Mercuria and Cathay Petroleum. Iran's official news agency IRNA said that Iran had granted permission to a number of oil tankers transporting Iraqi crude to pass through Strait of Hormuz last month after Baghdad repeatedly requested it through different channels. Iraq's exports were severely restricted in the early months of the war, in part due to its location on the Gulf and its lack of a shipping fleet. ADNOC, the state-owned oil company, has become more agile since the start of the war. It uses an expanding fleet of tankers as well as a pipe to Fujairah in order to transport?oil across the Strait of Hormuz and out of the Gulf. Put the past behind them Despite the attacks on ADNOC 'tankers', Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday met with UAE crown prince Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the BRICS Summit in New Delhi. He said that the two sides agreed to?put the past behind them. According to Kpler, Iraq exported about 2 million barrels per day in this month. This is down from the 2.354 millions bpd of August but higher than the 1.374million bpd of July. According to Kpler, UAE crude exports rose to 3.236 millions bpd this month from 2.886million bpd last August and 2.871million bpd during July. One of three sources stated that ADNOC intends to process the majority of crude oil purchased from other Gulf producers and sell it more on the international market.
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Copper falls to a 3-week low as inventories increase, with a focus on oil
The copper price fell to its lowest level in over three weeks on Tuesday as the London Metal Exchange increased their inventories, and oil prices rose. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was 0.5% higher, at $14.075 per metric ton of official rings. This is the lowest level since August 20, and it's been trading there for a year. Copper recovered thanks to bargain hunters, traders said. Due to higher premiums on nearby contracts against longer-dated forwards, copper stocks in LME warehouses rose nearly 20% to 242,900 tonnes since the middle of August. The traders expect that more copper sold previously at high prices will be delivered to LME warehouses in the coming days. The premiums that were paid last week have now been reduced, and deliveries will likely dry up pretty quickly. After a report by?U.S. sources, copper prices for all maturities began to drop last week. The President Donald Trump has not made a final decision about whether or not to impose tariffs against copper imports. Comex copper prices rose above LME copper prices due to the possibility of tariffs on U.S. imports. Since 18 months traders have been shipping copper to the United States. Comex stocks are at record highs. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum's analyst, said: "There is no benefit to confusing the markets with government policy." "I have a gut feeling that he'll impose this at some point, otherwise we will see the largest trade reversal ever in copper history." Analysts believe that concerns over oil prices and supplies - at around $107 per barrel compared to $87 at the end of August - will impact growth, manufacturing and metal demand. The dollar's strength has made commodities priced in dollars more expensive to holders of other currencies. Lead was unchanged at $1,874 and tin at $51,900. Nickel was down 0.6% at $16,230.
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Sources say that ADNOC, the UAE's oil company, buys millions barrels of Iraqi crude.
Three people with knowledge of the matter said that Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), a trading firm in the face of supply disruptions caused by the Iran War, has purchased millions of barrels of discounted crude oil from Iraq's State Oil Firm. Two Iraqi energy sources reported that the state company through its trading arm was the largest lifter of Iraqi oil in August and September, helping to boost Iraqi exports, which had been severely cut in the early months of the war. One of the Iraqi sources said that ADNOC had agreed to purchase 32 million Iraqi barrels for $24.90-$27 per barrel in August, and another 40 million barrels for $27 in September. This included 10 million barrels with a $18 discount, and 30 million barrels with a $25 discount. According to the second Iraqi source, despite Iraq's state oil marketing organization SOMO having allocated ADNOC a total of 32 million barrels for August, ADNOC lifted 20 millions barrels because of export restrictions and Basra Oil Company not being able to secure enough?crude. ADNOC has so far lifted 14 millions Iraqi barrels in September, a person told me. Third source claimed that ADNOC had purchased about 20 million barrels from Iraqi?state owned SOMO? in tenders for a discount between $25 and $27 per barrel. Other companies are also buying Iraqi crude. SOMO offered August loading cargoes?at steep discount, attracting other buyers, including Chinese state-majors PetroChina and Zhenhua Oil as well as TotalEnergies and?Vitol. Trafigura Mercuria, and Cathay?Petroleum.
Financiers desert bullish case for US gas: Kemp
U.S. gasoline costs and refining margins have come under pressure as inventories diminish more slowly than normal for this time of year, indicating supplies abound, and weakening the bullish case for the fuel.
Simply over a month earlier, investors had accumulated one of the largest bullish positions in U.S. fuel futures and alternatives considering that before the pandemic, expecting that costs would continue climbing up.
Gasoline had actually become the most attractive part of the petroleum complex for financiers to wager prices would increase further in the run-up to U.S. governmental and congressional elections in November.
Their bullishness was underpinned by reasonably low inventories, employment development, strong increases in family incomes and the prospect of an active hurricane season.
Ukraine's drone attacks on refineries in Russia threatened to tighten global materials even further, prompting the Biden administration to warn Ukraine's federal government to alter its targeting.
However the expected stock deficiency and rise in rates has stopped working to materialise, causing investors to liquidate most of their bullish holdings.
U.S. gas stocks were less than 3 million barrels or 1% listed below the previous 10-year seasonal average on May 10, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Instead of swelling, the deficit had actually narrowed progressively from 6 million barrels or 3% below the previous 10-year average 8 weeks earlier on March 15.
Chartbook: https://tmsnrt.rs/3wEjQu1
Close-by futures rates for fuel have actually fallen much quicker than for crude as traders have reassessed the outlook and concluded products will remain ample during the peak summer driving season.
Second-month U.S. gas futures prices have recently traded $21 per barrel above front-month Brent, with the premium below more than $28 in the middle of March.
The gasoline futures calendar spread in between June and September, covering the driving season, has actually narrowed to a. backwardation of less than $3 per barrel from more than $7 on. March 18.
If gas supplies are going to become tight this summer season,. causing downward pressure on stocks and upward pressure. on costs and spreads, there has been no sign yet.
Financiers have observed and liquidated a number of the bullish. long positions in gas futures and alternatives they had actually amassed. by early April.
Hedge funds and other cash managers offered the equivalent of. 36 million barrels of gasoline futures and options in between April. 9 and May 7.
As an outcome, fund supervisors' net position was cut to 49. million barrels (41st percentile for all weeks since 2013) on. May 7 from 85 million barrels (88th percentile) four weeks. previously.
The hedge fund community had a neutral and even slightly. bearish outlook on gasoline rates having actually been highly bullish. just a month before.
Inflation-adjusted pump costs including taxes increased to a. national average of $3.73 per gallon (59th percentile for all. months given that 2000) in April up from a low of just $3.23 (38th. percentile) in January, according to the EIA.
However in the very first two weeks of May, pump rates have. pulled back a little as the impact of lower wholesale rates has. filtered through.
REFINERY HEAD-FAKE
The majority of the apparent tightening up of gas products in the. first quarter originated from the extended interruption of BP's. refinery at Whiting, Indiana following a site-wide. electrical power failure at the start of February.
Fuel stocks diminished by around 13 million barrels. more than the seasonal average between late January and the. middle of March.
Ever since, however, the refining system has stabilised and. even rebuilt inventories in action to strong refining margins.
U.S. refineries ran at 91.9% of their optimum capability. over the seven-day duration ending on May 10, the highest seasonal. utilisation rate since 2017.
Refineries processed an average of 16.7 million barrels per. day (b/d) of crude and other feedstocks, the highest for the. time of year because 2019.
At the exact same time, fuel consumption has not accelerated as. much as prepared for, making it much easier to reconstruct stocks.
Refiners, blenders and importers provided an average of 8.6. million b/d of fuel to the domestic market in February, the. newest data available.
The volume provided, a proxy for intake, was the lowest. for the time of year considering that February 2021 (when the pandemic was. still raging) and before that February 2014.
HURRICANE SEASON
Gasoline products are now expected to be comfortable. throughout the summer season, which has taken the heat and speculative. froth out of the marketplace.
The main threat originates from hurricane season, which runs from. June through November, with storm activity peaking in late. August and early September.
This year's season is likely to be more active than typical,. and positions a small but non-zero danger of disrupting major. refineries clustered along the Gulf of Mexico in Texas and. Louisiana.
In 2023, the number of hurricanes and tropical storms making. landfall on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts was below average.
El Niño conditions tend to suppress hurricane formation in. the Atlantic and last summer was characterised by the development. a really strong El Niño episode.
But the El Niño episode is now over and there is an. above-average likelihood that it will be changed by La Niña. conditions that tend to improve the number of tropical storms.
In addition, sea-surface temperatures in the tropical area. of the North Atlantic are remarkably warm for the time of. year, which will also add to the development of more. tropical storms with higher intensity.
Hurricane formation needs a sea surface temperature. of a minimum of 26 ° Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit), to name a few complex. conditions.
Surface area temperature levels in the tropical North Atlantic were. currently 27.4 ° C typically in April, a record for the time of. year, and 1.54 ° C above the 30-year seasonal norm.
The number of hurricanes, among them storms in the most. serious categories, is likely to be higher this summer season than in. 2023 and most likely above the long-term average.
But not all of them will make landfall and the probability. of a direct strike on Texas and Louisiana coastal refineries. remains fairly low.
Significant refinery interruption stays a tail risk, concentrated. in the months of August and September. The more possible central. circumstance is that gas products stay comfy through. the summer driving season.
Associated column:
- Investors bet on more rise in United States gas rates (April. 11, 2024)
John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.
(source: Reuters)