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EDF promotes nuclear executives ahead of new build
By America Hernandez PARIS, 8 July - France's EDF, the state-owned energy company, has named several new directors to its Board and will reorganise its operations to prepare for its plans to build 6 new nuclear reactors, and to increase investments in hydropower. EDF CEO Bernard Fontana stated in a press release that "this evolution aims at strengthening the Group's performance industrially in support of the revitalization of nuclear power and Hydropower... We must organize ourselves to better identify and deliver on our long-term commitments." Xavier Gruz will be joining the executive committee as director of EDF's Nuclear Programme immediately. He will propose a stronger ownership structure for new nuclear projects and report directly to the CEO. EDF is also forming a new entity for project management to speed up the construction of reactors. This will be done by streamlining the cooperation with industrial partners on the levels of engineering, construction and supply chain. Nicolas Machtou will be the secretary general of the board from September. He currently oversees new nuclear projects. Emmanuelle Verger and Elisabeth Terrail from EDF’s Hydropower business, Framatome as well as Elisabeth Terrail who leads EDF’s reactor-building activities have been appointed to the Board. Fontana was appointed CEO in the first quarter of this year. The company is now looking for ways to raise money to fund new nuclear builds. This includes possible asset sales. In early 2018, the French government approved a subsidised loan to EDF to cover at least half the estimated construction costs for six new reactors in 2022, which was estimated to be 52 billion euros. A revised budget is expected to be released by the end of the year. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Emelia Sithole Matarise and America Hernandez in Paris)
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UN vote on phase-out of fossil fuels tests commitments to climate change
The U.N. Human Rights Council will vote on Tuesday whether to adopt a pledge that all fossil fuels must be phased out to combat climate change. Diplomats have warned Gulf states and other countries may not honor their previous commitments. The council recognized the right to a healthy and clean environment in 2021. It has revealed divisions between the 47 members, after the Marshall Islands - one of the countries most vulnerable to rising ocean levels with an average elevation of only 2 meters - made an amendment to motion to mention the exit of fossil fuels. The vote is now a test to see if countries are willing to leave the oil age, after they agreed to do it at the COP28 Climate Summit in December 2023. Often, decisions are reached without a vote by the council. They do not have legal force, but they help to shape global standards. It's not yet clear if there will be a majority for the language on Tuesday. Doreen Debrum, the Marshall Islands ambassador to the U.N. at Geneva, said before the vote: "It's incomprehensible how a resolution that purports to protect human rights against the effects of climate changes would not mention the necessity to move away from fossil fuels ...,". Australia, Britain, Germany and several small island nations including Samoa and Vanuatu support the move. Three diplomats claim that oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (a voting member), voiced their opposition to this phrasing during negotiations. Riyadh instead called for "multiple paths" to reduce emission. Kuwait's foreign ministry or Saudi Arabia's international press offices did not respond to requests for comment. The diplomatic missions of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in Geneva failed to respond immediately. Sebastien duyck, the human rights and climate campaign director at the Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), called the vote "a litmus test for government". Campaigners have accused leaders in climate action such as the European Union of scaling back their policies while dealing with the effects of an early summer heatwave. Since disengaging from the Council this year, the U.S. will not take part in the formal vote. (Reporting and editing by Alison Williams; Emma Farge)
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EU climate negotiations to be led by far-right politicians
Patriots for Europe, an extreme right-wing group, will be in charge of the European Parliament’s work on the new climate target for the bloc, European Union legislators said on Tuesday. This could complicate any agreement on the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 90% by 2040. The Patriots group is the third largest in the Parliament and includes both the far-right parties of France and Hungary, including Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right, and Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary. During separate press conferences, EU legislators, including Bas Eickhout (co-chair of Green EU Lawmaker Group) and Iratxe Garca Perez (group chair for Socialists and Democrats), confirmed the appointment. The Patriots spokesperson did not respond immediately to comments. Climate change is making Europe the fastest-warming continent in the world. Severe heatwave Last week was a disruptive time for the entire continent. The governments of Italy and Poland have all reacted. Push back This year, the government has set ambitious goals to reduce emissions. However, it is concerned about the cost for industry. Patriots' new role will give them a powerful voice when EU countries, the European Parliament and other legislators negotiate on the EU 2040 climate goal in the next few months. The Patriots are tasked to draft an initial proposal of the position of the Parliament in these negotiations. However, lawmakers from other groups have noted that they can reject the Patriots’ draft and create their own instead. It will force pro-European groups, such as the French liberal EU legislator Pascal Canfin to work together in order to bring this important proposal to a conclusion before the COP30 at Belem in November. The Patriots Group holds eurosceptic views, including accusations that the EU seeks to replace national governments by a European superstate. EU officials said that the Patriots won the negotiating role at a meeting behind closed doors on Tuesday morning by outbidding parliament's largest group, the centre right European People's Party. Before the COP30 summit, the 27-country EU as well as other major economies such China will be submitting new climate targets to United Nations before September. Brussels has struggled for months to gain political support for 2040 Climate Target, which was proposed by the European Commission. (Reporting and editing by Mark Heinrich; Kate Abnett)
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Wildfires in Catalonia have put more than 18,000 people on lockdown.
The Spanish authorities ordered that more than 18,000 residents in the Tarragona Province, located in northeastern Spain, remain inside on Tuesday. Several dozen people were evacuated when a wildfire, which was out of control and consumed almost 3,000 hectares (7.413 acres) worth of vegetation, spread. After Spain experienced the hottest June ever recorded, large parts of Spain have been placed on high alert. On July 1, two people were killed in a fire in the region where Tarragona, Catalonia is located. Authorities said that the latest fire started early on Monday morning in a remote location near the village Pauls. Strong winds and rugged terrain had hampered efforts to fight fires. A military emergency unit and more than 300 firefighters were deployed in the area early on Tuesday. The regional firefighting service in Catalonia said that firefighters had been fighting the fire since midnight with gusts reaching 90 kilometres an hour (56 miles) per hour. They added that the strong Mistral winds were expected to subside by the afternoon. Fire engines raced through the Pauls Mountains overnight, with flames surrounding them, while crews assessed the situation and attempted to contain the fire. Residents of the nearby villages of Xerta, and Aldover spent a night without sleep as flames threatened to destroy their homes. "There was a lot (of) fear and crying because we were already at the edge of a fire. We couldn't leave the house last night because the wind was blowing smoke and fire. Rosa Veleda told reporters that the situation was "terrible, it's never happened before". Authorities claimed that they prevented the fire spreading to the Ebro River. This would have made the situation worse. Officials are investigating how the fire started. Approximately 30% is within Ports Natural Park. (Writing, additional reporting and editing by Emma Pinedo)
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Dollar helps copper prices despite growth concerns
Copper prices held steady on Tuesday. Supported by a lower US dollar, gains were limited by concerns about an economic slowdown, demand growth, and the tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump, as well as rising inventories. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up by 0.1% to $9,835 per metric ton, at 1030 GMT, towards the recent three-month high reached last week of $10,020.50 per ton. Dollar-priced materials have become cheaper due to the falling dollar. This could boost demand for industrial metals, such as copper. On Monday, the United States announced new tariffs of 25% to 40% that would take effect August 1, a postponement from July 9. Trump warned that a 10% additional tariff could be imposed if BRICS nations, including Brazil, Russia India and China, pursued what he called "anti-American policies" during their Brazil summit. Copper stocks In LME-registered storage warehouses, the stock was 102,500 tonnes. This is an increase of 13% or 11,875 ton since June 27, easing concerns about availability on LME. However, traders claim that deliveries should be increased. The cancellation of warrants for metals marked for delivery at 36% indicates that another 37,100 tonnes of copper will be leaving the LME system. Large warrant holdings are still dominant in nearby contracts. Tom-next, the premium charged for buying copper today and selling it tomorrow has risen to $13 per ton Before the settlement of next week when holders of short positions will need to reduce or rollover their contracts in order to sell. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories Storage in LME has increased by 47,450 tonnes to 384 350 tons since 25 June, helping to reverse the premium on the three-month cash forward. . Three-month Aluminium Lead was up by 0.4%, while zinc rose 0.8%. Tin increased 0.4%, to $33,410, and nickel fell 0.3%, to $15,130 per ton.
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TSX Futures are rising; US tariff proposals on the forefront
The futures linked to Canada's benchmark stock index rose on Tuesday as investors weighed up President Donald Trump’s new tariff proposals against several trading partners, and the new deadline set for trade agreements. Futures on S&P/TSX rose by 0.2% at 06:34 a.m. ET (1034 GMT). Trump sent letters on Monday to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea and China, warning of sharply increased tariffs on U.S. imported goods, but also delaying their implementation until August 1. He said that the deadline is not 100% set in stone and he will consider extensions if other countries make proposals. After Trump's April launch of a global economic war, which roiled financial markets and forced policymakers to protect economies, countries have been under pressure from the U.S. to sign deals. Canada, which recently cancelled a digital tax on U.S. tech companies in order to preserve the trade talks with Trump aims to reach a deal by July 21. Prices of gold and oil fell on Tuesday. A government official revealed on Monday that Canada's Finance Minister has instructed all ministries to make savings, reduce duplication of work, and reallocate money from other programs towards priority projects. Aura Minerals announced that it was preparing to list shares on Nasdaq. This could give the Canadian gold and cobalt miner an estimated value of $2,14 billion. Toronto's S&P/TSX Composite index, which is heavily influenced by commodities, closed lower Monday. It followed the U.S. market, causing trade jitters for Canadian investors. CLICK CODES TO GET CANADIAN MARKETS UPDATES: TSX Market Report Canadian Dollar and Bond Report Global Stocks Poll for Canada Canadian Markets Directory (Reporting and Editing by Shreya Biwas; Twesha Gupta, Sukriti.
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As dealmaking increases, activist investors will push for change.
In the months to come, activist shareholders will be more determined to press for corporate change. They'll also feel more confident to launch new campaigns now that the pace of deals is picking up. Investors, bankers and lawyers predict a rise in corporate leadership disputes, operational improvements, and spin-offs during the second half 2025. They said that many global corporations would prepare for time-consuming and costly battles. However, some activist investors might be willing to compromise. Alfredo Porretti is global co-head Shareholder Engagement and M&A Capital Markets for JPMorgan Chase. He said that the activity in the second half of the year would be more significant. "Activists have become more cautious, but they are still not taking action." After an unusually quiet quarter in which only 59 campaigns were launched, the expected rebound of global company campaigns will come after a second quarter that was unusually quiet. This included campaigns from Hewlett Packard Enterprise, a U.S. IT company, and Kenvue Consumer Healthcare, whose products include Band-Aids, Tylenol, and Band-Aids. The pace of investor campaigns to increase the price of shares slowed down by 16% between April and June compared to the first quarter. Barclays data shows that they were down by 32% compared to a year earlier. Investors reported that many activists were on the sidelines during the second quarter due to concerns about the impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's tax and tariff policies. Pam Codo-Lotti is the chief operating officer for Activism and Shareholder Advisory, Goldman Sachs. She said that "Activists reevaluated their public campaigns due to equity market volatility and macro-uncertainty in the second quarter." People familiar with the work of established corporate agitators like Elliott Investment Management and Jana Partners, as well as newcomers that have never publicly pushed companies to perform better are looking ahead to new ideas. Starboard Value, an activist group, bought a stake in Tripadvisor in the first few days of the second quarter with the intention to engage the management. Activists target companies in the fall and winter, well before the annual meetings of the following year. They often start off with private discussions before making their demands public. The companies are prepared for the anticipated onslaught. Two directors of large American companies who were not allowed to speak publicly about the preparations said that board members with a negative memory of previous activist pressure are pressing management to hire advisors to assess vulnerabilities now and to take pre-emptive actions. They said that long-serving directors could be replaced, or chief executives who are not keeping up with their peers may be fired. In times of economic uncertainty and volatility, Ingo Speich said, "Shareholder activism is more likely to be due to weak points in companies." Ingo Speich is the head of sustainability at German asset manager Deka Investment. Poor governance is the main source of shareholder activism. Companies in transition are more vulnerable, and this opens the door for more shareholder activism. In the first half 2025, 43% of activist campaigns have included a request for board changes. Mantle Ridge, an activist investor, successfully pushed board changes at Air Products and Chemicals and Elliott at Phillips 66. Bankers and lawyers are expecting a rise in demand for the sale of companies or spinoffs. This was only a part of 33% of campaigns during the first half. Investor confidence is increasing, they said. Goldman's Codo Lotti stated that "we expect public activism campaigns to increase in the second half, with renewed focus on M&A target, barring macro-headwinds." Bankers and lawyers say that after making their name with loud public campaigns waged years ago by investors such as Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman, many activists now want to lower their profile and avoid the headlines. According to a new study by SquareWell Partners, institutional investors who collectively manage $35 trillion in assets "overwhelmingly" view activism as an effective market force. 77% of them see it as catalyst for change, while 71% describe it as a driver of responsibility. After establishing their reputation, activists might be willing to settle for a quiet settlement rather than engage in costly and messy proxy battles. Jana Partners, for example, had long been pushing French-fry manufacturer Lamb Weston to make operational and board changes as well as possibly selling the company. The hedge fund avoided a high-profile fight in the boardroom by settling a dispute that placed four of their candidates on the board, and two others that both parties agreed upon. Porretti, JPMorgan's Porretti, said that "peace is indeed breaking out as more settlements have been reached and board seats are going to activists." He added "but settlements can only be reached if both sides feel a little weak." Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss and Emma-Victoria Farr, Frankfurt; editing by David Gregorio
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OBR: Global 3C climate warming will hurt UK economy more than predicted
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimated on Tuesday that a rise in global temperature to nearly 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degree Fahrenheit), above pre-industrial levels, would hurt Britain's economic growth by much more than was previously thought. In its Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report, the OBR stated that the combined fiscal impact of climate damage and mitigating it could add up to 74% of the GDP in government debt in early 2070, compared to the latest long-term forecast. According to a United Nations report released in October of last year, current climate policies will result in global warming exceeding 3 degrees Celsius in the next century. The OBR has reduced its estimate of the cost to transition to a net-zero economy from 30% to 21% in 2021. However, they have increased their estimates of the impact of climate change on output. OBR estimates that a scenario with an increase of almost 3 degrees in global temperatures will reduce GDP levels by 8% early in 2070, as opposed to the previous estimate of only 5%. This would increase the primary government borrowing, which excludes interest payments on debt, by around 2% compared to a previous estimate that was 1.3%. (Reporting and editing by William Schomberg, Susan Fenton, and Andy Bruce)
Investors bank on additional increase in US gas rates: Kemp
Portfolio investors have generated among the largest bullish positions in U.S. gas futures and choices considering that before the coronavirus pandemic, preparing for that prices will continue climbing over the next couple of months.
U.S. gasoline has become the most attractive part of the petroleum complex for financiers wagering rates will rise even more this year in the run up to U.S. governmental and congressional elections in November.
Reasonably low inventories, employment gains, strong family income development and the prospect of an active cyclone season are expected to keep gasoline intake high and stocks under pressure.
Ukraine's drone attacks on refineries in Russia threaten to tighten up the global supply situation even further and have triggered the Biden administration to warn Ukraine's government to change its targeting.
BUOYANT INTAKE
U.S. gas intake is associated with work and household earnings so the existing increase in nonfarm tasks and wage rates are most likely to underpin strong use in 2024.
Domestic consumption has been trending structurally lower considering that 2007 as a result of enhancements in fuel economy, ethanol blending and more just recently the deployment of electrical and hybrid cars.
However lower domestic use has actually been more than offset by strong development in exports, primarily to Mexico and other nations in Latin America, which has kept overall refinery production trending greater.
Strong domestic intake throughout the peak summer season driving season is most likely to cause inventories to tighten cyclically and put in upward pressure on costs in 2024.
ACTIVE CYCLONE SEASON
Almost half of the total refinery capacity in the U.S. is situated along the Gulf of Mexico on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.
Every year there is a little however non-zero chance refinery processing will be interrupted by a direct hit from a major cyclone.
The North Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June through November with activity peaking in August and September ( Hurricane meteorology, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024).
The precise variety of storms, their strength and the location of landfalls is highly variable and infamously difficult to anticipate months in advance.
However the anticipated shift from El Nino to La Nina conditions underway in the central and eastern Pacific is typically associated with an increased number and strength of hurricanes in the Atlantic ( Effects of El Nino and La Nina on the hurricane season, NOAA, 2014).
Chartbook: U.S. gas stocks and costs
At the very same time, Atlantic storm creation and strength is strongly associated with sea surface area temperature levels in the Caribbean and the tropical North Atlantic.
Tropical storm formation needs sea surface area temperature levels of a minimum of 26 ° C, among a variety of other conditions ( Cyclogenesis, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2017).
Sea surface area temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic were at a record seasonal high in March 2024, according to information from the U.S. Environment Prediction Centre.
Sea surface area temperature levels rose higher around the world, consisting of an extremely strong warm El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, but the extraordinary warming was most pronounced in the Atlantic.
Surface temperature levels in the Atlantic from 5 ° to 20 ° North and from 30 ° to 60 ° West balanced almost 27.1 ° C in March, which was more than 1.5 ° C above the long-lasting seasonal average.
If the surface area warmth continues into the second and 3rd quarters it is likely to lead to an above typical variety of hurricanes and more significant cyclones in 2024 and an elevated danger to the Gulf Coast refineries.
Colorado State University researchers have anticipated an exceptionally active typhoon season in 2024 ( Projection for 2024 typhoon activity, CSU, April 4, 2024).
The variety of called hurricanes and typhoons is anticipated to be more than 50% greater than the long-lasting average.
BULLISH POSITION
Hedge funds and other cash supervisors owned bullish long positions comparable to 99 million barrels on April 2, the highest number for more than 4 years.
After adjusting for a minority of bearish brief positions, the net position was 84 million barrels, which was in the 88th percentile for all weeks given that 2013.
Fund supervisors were more bullish on gas than on crude( 56th percentile) or middle extracts such as diesel and gas oil (53rd percentile).
Bullish long positions in gas surpassed bearish short ones by a ratio of more than 6.4:1 (68th percentile) on April 2.
The long-short ratio suggests positioning is less extended than the outright variety of long positions, but there is still downside threat to prices when long positions are unwound.
LOW INVENTORIES
On April 5, U.S. gasoline stocks were 5 million barrels( -2% or -0.42 basic variances) below the prior ten-year seasonal average.
Stocks had actually been as much as 7 million barrels (+3% or +0.75 standard discrepancies) above seasonal average in late January.
But a site-wide power failure stopped BP's enormous refinery at Whiting, Indiana, lasting for more than a month from the start of February and led to a sharp depletion of stocks.
Since the refinery restarted in March, the deficit has narrowed a little, however inventories stay listed below typical for the time of year, putting upward pressure on costs.
EVEN HIGHER PRICES?
U.S. retail gasoline prices (including taxes) averaged $3.54. per gallon in March 2024, practically exactly in line with the. average considering that the start of the century when inflation is taken. into account.
Inflation-adjusted costs have actually increased from a recent low of. $ 3.22 in January 2024 however are still well listed below the recent high. of $5.42 in June 2022 after Russia's intrusion of Ukraine.
Fund managers are betting greatly that gas prices will. rise even more over the remainder of the year.
From a purely placing perspective, the a great deal of. bullish long positions that need to eventually be liquidated has. itself produced downside risk to prices.
From an essential perspective, however, low stocks,. strong intake, danger to Russia's refineries, and raised. typhoon threat to U.S. refineries are all sources of benefit. capacity.
John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy
(source: Reuters)