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The weekly copper price is up on the back of mine supply concerns and China demand
Copper prices were on track to gain a weekly % of?1.5% this Friday. This was due to concerns about mine supply disruptions and signs of active demand from?China, the top consumer. By 0948 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange had risen by 1.2% to $14,473.50 per metric tonne. Yangshan Copper Premium This week, the price of copper in China reached its highest level in four years, after the country returned from its week-long vacation. The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitors copper inventories in warehouses. The end-of-week stock level was 58,744 tonnes, an increase of 20,000 tons over the previous week. Exchange data revealed that copper stocks at the LME registered warehouses fell to a six-week-low of 233.025 tons, after daily outflows totaling 4,700?tons. This was mainly due to warehouses in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Since 2025, copper prices have been supported by the constant transfers of metal to Comex warehouses, especially in the last six months. This is due to uncertainty about potential US import tariffs for refined copper. Comex inventories are at a record high of 711 609 tons. Cash copper contracts ended Thursday with a $97 per ton premium over the three-month contract. Morgan Stanley stated in a report that "any slowdown in US stocks could make the markets feel looser. But China's demand has been resilient, and supply is experiencing significant disruptions." The union representing Antofagasta’s?Centinela mine in Chile has said that the strike will?begin affecting output in November. Antofagasta initially downplayed its impact, but this situation has increased the risk of disruptions at other mines. Aluminium and lead, among other LME metals, rose by 1.1% each to $3,085 a ton and $1,880 per ton. Zinc rose 1.7% to $3.781.50. Tin increased 2.1% to $52,305. Nickel climbed 1.2%, to $15,730.
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AI-related companies drive the majority of third-quarter US earnings increases
US companies will likely deliver a third-quarter earnings surge, and AI-related players, like the stock market rally, are driving most of these gains. Investors are excited about the hyper-growth of AI companies, but they are also concerned about the future of the share price and how long this trend will continue. According to Tajinder dhillon, LSEG’s head of earnings research and equity, analysts expect S&P500 earnings to increase by 31% in the third quarter. Two-thirds will come from the tech sector, including AI giants Alphabet and Amazon.com, as well as Meta Platforms. The S&P 500 reached a new record this week, ahead of earnings season. This is expected to begin unofficially next?week when banks such as JPMorgan Chase or Goldman Sachs report their results. "It is all AI, and to a lesser degree, energy and material, but this is because of geopolitics,"?Sameer samana, the head of global equity and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. It wouldn't be surprising if 70-80% growth could be attributed tech and AI. The US oil price has risen by roughly 30% during the third quarter due to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Samana pointed out that the?earnings estimates for the third-quarter are among the lowest. Strategists are unsure if the third-quarter growth in earnings can match the explosive growth seen in the second quarter. Most companies beat analyst's estimates and this is likely to continue in the third quarter. LSEG data shows that the S&P 500's earnings grew by 54% in the second quarter, the highest growth since 2021. LSEG data showed that excluding mark-to-market gains from Alphabet and Amazon.com for AI-related investments the growth rate was still about 35%. This is the highest level since 2021. Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist of Ameriprise Financial. He said that investors should be concerned because we're approaching "peak earnings growth" in this cycle. "A lot is this AI trade built on continuing capex spending. Every quarter, as they continue to do so, the hurdle rates and scrutiny get higher." Dhillon, based upon LSEG data, said that earnings for US semiconductor firms, which are among the largest beneficiaries of the AI boom will?have risen by about 136% compared to about 158% during the second quarter. Nick Raich is the CEO of Earnings Scout. Three months ago, we were going 150 miles per hour. Raich stated that the latest reports, including those from Micron Technology, were strong and suggested other companies continue to "reap the benefits." Micron, a chipmaker, forecasted quarterly revenue that was above expectations and said customers had boosted their commitments to its long-term supply agreements up to $32 billion. This week, Google signed a huge power deal with Constellation Energy. Investors will also be paying close attention to the impact of higher interest rates on corporate profits during this earnings season. The US bond yields are rising due to concerns over inflation, high oil prices, and debt problems elsewhere. Samana warned that heavy borrowers such as utilities are at risk.
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Campaign group warns that the new Congress in Brazil poses a threat to environmental legislation
According to a report by the climate advocacy group Observatorio Do?Clima that found almost 70% of elected legislators have no or little interest in environmental issues, Brazil's new Congress will likely pose a greater obstacle to legislation protecting the environment after elections this month. The study examined bills, legislative initiatives, speeches, and public statements made by newly elected and reelected legislators. It concluded that 64 out of 81 senators have demonstrated a "very low" commitment to environmental issues. In the lower chamber, 345 out of 511 legislators were placed in the same category. According to the study, the Liberal Party, which is home to Flavio Bolsonaro (a right-wing senator) who will be facing President Luiz Inacio Lula in a presidential runoff later this month has the lowest environmental credentials of all major parties. Bolsonaro defeated Lula in a first round despite pollsters' predictions, but he didn't get enough votes to prevent a second ballot. The environmental commitment of all 28 senators and lower house members who were elected by the party on Sunday was rated as very low. The study also found that other right-leaning political parties, such as?Novo and Republicanos, Progressistas, and Uniao Brasil showed low support for environmental issues. Observatorio do Clima stated that environmental advocates may face a more 'challenging' political landscape if Bolsonaro, whose previous?comments about climate change caused concern, is elected President. I contacted the parties named but did not receive a response. The group said that proposals to weaken environmental protections, such as measures to reduce protected lands, allow mining on Indigenous land, and ease licensing requirements for environmental matters, could gain "traction" under the new Congress. Suely Araujo is the public policy coordinator for the group. She said, "This image shows four years of hard work by those who are focused on climate and environment issues."
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Trump's comment that Iran can 'take out Los Angeles' was misinterpreted
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that comments he made about Iran being able to "take out" California cities were misinterpreted. He was referring instead to the need for people to tolerate higher gasoline prices. Trump made these remarks on Monday at a Nebraska political rally, where he talked about the economic sacrifices of Americans during World War II. "Remember that the 'war' is artificial, it costs a lot, but it's worth it," he said. "It is a small price to pay in order to keep the world and our country safe. They could take out an entire city. Let's?take Los Angeles out, let's?take San Diego out. It's a small price to pay and it will be over very soon." California's Democratic Leaders and some Republican colleagues quickly condemned the remarks. Trump stated in a Truth Social posting on Thursday that "a temporary increase in Gasoline prices is a small price to be paid for Iran not having a nuclear weapon." "If you want to see a huge price, can you imagine what would happen if they bombed San Diego and/or Los Angeles?" He continued by saying he loved both cities. Trump has dismissed concerns about cost of living stemming the Iran conflict in the past.
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US to rescind methane policy against oil and gas industry
The US Environmental Protection Agency announced on Wednesday that it would be scrapping the Biden-era regulation aimed at curbing large leaks of'methane' from oil and gas operations. The move is part a broader effort by the Trump administration to reduce regulations, which it claims burden US businesses in its quest to increase fossil fuel production. "Americans should be able to afford heating their homes during the winter and filling up their cars to drive to work." The people who produce the energy cannot?do this when they are burdened by unnecessary burdens," EPA Administator Lee Zeldin stated in a press release after announcing the decision at a meeting with representatives of the oil and gas industries in New Mexico. The "super emitter program" of the EPA requires that companies react when third parties use remote sensing to report suspected methane leaks. After taking office in 2017, the Trump administration?delayed implementing this policy until next. EPA claimed that its proposal to rescind this?rule could save $45 billion a yearly. The oil and gas industry, which is a major source of methane, is responsible for the second largest?cause?of climate change?after carbon dioxide. Environmental groups have criticized the move. In a statement, Mahyar Sorour of Sierra Club's Beyond Fossil Fuels said: "This giveaway is foolish and shortsighted. It reveals to whom the Trump administration works - its political donors."
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US seizes $3 Million in fuel shipments from Cuba as crackdown continue
The US announced on Wednesday that it had seized 90 separate shipments of biodiesel bound to Cuba, worth nearly $3 million. This is the second time this week US authorities have announced the seizure "illegal" fuel en route to Cuba. The Trump administration is continuing to choke off Cuba's energy industry, only allowing small amounts of fuel to be shipped to the private sector on the island in an effort to undercut the Cuban government. Jose Figueroa, Special Agent in Charge of Homeland Security Miami, told Miami reporters on Wednesday that the seized cargo was destined for Enetec, an Enetec-based state-owned fuel firm sanctioned earlier this year by the US. The authorities said that they intercepted fuel shipments at Port Everglades in south Florida and Houston before they left the US. Homeland Security reported that more than 600,000 gallons were seized. Figueroa stated that "an effort of this magnitude to undermine US sanction is not an accident." These actions are aimed at shipments that could benefit the Cuban government through a state controlled entity. Anyone who attempts to undermine US laws to fund, facilitate or profit from such an effort should be put on notice. Cuba's government didn't?comment immediately on the fuel seizure. Cuba's communist-run government has called the Trump administration's blockade of fuel on Cuba "economic war" and "illegal". The blockade has exacerbated the ongoing problems of blackouts, shortages of water and inflation on the island, pushing it towards a humanitarian catastrophe. US President Donald Trump stated openly that his goal is to overthrow Cuba's government with the?blockade & sanctions. Last week, the US Coast Guard announced that they had intercepted in September a large container vessel carrying fuel bound for Cuba. The Coast Guard said that the ship was attempting to evade authorities, and had large amounts of fuel hidden within its ballast tanks. In either case, the US has not disclosed the identities of the exporters.
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Russia claims that Ukraine has struck two nuclear facilities at Zaporizhzhia
The head of Russia's state nuclear corporation said that despite the fact that Ukrainian drones had attacked two facilities at Zaporizhzhia, a Russian-held nuclear power plant in southeast Ukraine, there was no danger to nuclear safety. Alexei Likhachev said that a driver who was delivering food to plant workers had been killed by the drone attack. Likhachev said that a laboratory and a plant for the processing of radioactive waste were targeted. Ukraine has yet to comment on the incident. The plant's management announced on?Saturday that Ukrainian shelling in recent weeks has damaged the external power supply equipment. Electricity is currently provided by emergency diesel generators. The plant does not produce electricity, but it needs two external links for power to cool nuclear fuel. In the first few weeks of the war, which began with Moscow's invasion of its smaller neighbor in February 2022, Russia captured the?plant - Europe's biggest with six reactors. Since then, Moscow and Kyiv accuse each other regularly of military actions that compromise nuclear safety. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog has repeatedly taken action to ensure a ceasefire surrounding the plant so that repairs could be made to the lines connecting the facility to the main grid. UN monitors are at the Zaporizhzhia and three other plants in Ukraine. Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry wrote on her ministry's website that the West was enabling Ukrainian aggressions by not publicly condemning them. Zakharova wrote that "Kyiv has intensified its shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant because Western countries have not responded appropriately to these actions, effectively facilitating new assaults." "Such an attitude toward strikes by the Ukrainian military shows the true 'value' of statements made by representatives of these nations about nuclear and physical safety at international forums."
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The top cases in the US Supreme Court docket
US Supreme Court will hear a number of important cases in its new term, which begins Monday. These include issues like President Donald Trump's Immigration Policies, the ban on assault-style rifles, the financial responsibility of Big Oil for climate change and Republican-backed voting restriction. This is a list of some of the cases that are being argued in the current term. The term runs until the end of June. Big Oil Climate Suit ExxonMobil, Suncor Energy and Boulder officials argued on October 5, attempting to "thwart" a lawsuit filed by Boulder officials. The Justices grappled with the complex question of whether local governments should be allowed to hold oil companies responsible for harms caused by climate change. After Colorado's highest court allowed Boulder to sue them for violating state laws and seeking unspecified damages, the companies filed an appeal. Trump's administration supported the companies. The justices expressed concerns over unduly restricting the power of states to pursue litigation related to climate change, and the potential for chaos if local government across the nation were allowed to sue these corporations. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. TRUMP'S MANDATORY DETENTION OF IMMIGRANTS The court will determine the legality Trump's policy, which subjects millions of illegal immigrants living in the US to mandatory detention while deportation proceedings are underway. Trump's policy of mass deportation includes this policy. The Supreme Court heard the Trump administration appeal of a lower-court ruling that ruled against the policy, in a case concerning a Brazilian citizen. The US administration has abandoned its long-standing interpretation of federal laws that allowed immigrants living in the US to be released under bond until their cases were heard in immigration court. Dates for the arguments have not been set yet. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. DEPORTATIONS TO A THIRD COUNTRY BY TRUMP In December, the justices will hear arguments over the Trump administration’s policy to deport migrants to "third countries", or other nations than their home country. They won't give them the opportunity to demonstrate the harms that they might face. On September 29, the court allowed the Trump administration to continue its policy, suspending a federal judge’s ruling that deporting migrants to third-country countries was illegal. Human rights groups claim that more than 25,000 migrants were deported under this policy to 29 different countries. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. Ban on assault-style rifles On December 2, the justices will hear arguments in a challenge against state prohibitions of 'assault style rifles. This case involves a weapon type that is often associated with mass killings. The lower courts in Cook County Illinois and Connecticut upheld the bans on powerful semiautomatic weapons such as AR-15s. Lower courts rejected arguments that these measures violated the US Constitution's Second Amendment rights to "keep and bear arms." Gun rights groups, as well as other opponents, have argued that Supreme Court precedents regarding the Second Amendment protect firearms in "common usage." The end of June is the expected date for a ruling. Voting Rights On December 8, the justices will hear arguments in a Republican led bid to reinstate voter restrictions in Arizona. This would require proof of citizenship for all voter registrants, and purge voter lists in Arizona from alleged non-US citizen voters. Republicans appealed a lower court's decision to stop certain provisions of Arizona law for violating federal voting registration laws. The Trump administration has supported key aspects of the appeal. The Arizona measure, according to critics, adds additional mandates for voting which unfairly targets Latinos and Native American voters. These groups tend to support Democratic candidates. The ruling is expected to be made by the end of June. LGBT RIGHTS On November 3, the justices will hear arguments in an appeal by the Archdiocese of Denver, and other Catholic entities, to be exempted of a Colorado program that funds preschools' nondiscrimination requirements. A lower court ruled that Colorado's program didn't violate the First Amendment rights of the Catholic plaintiffs. State funds are provided for preschools. The Catholic plaintiffs objected that the state required schools receiving funding through the program to give all children an "equal chance" to enroll in pre-school, regardless of certain characteristics. This included the sexual orientation of students and their families. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. EPIC GAMES SUE AGAINST Apple Apple will try to avoid being found in contempt by the justices in its legal battle with Epic Games, the maker of "Fortnite". The iPhone maker had been found to be in violation of an order from a court ordering sweeping changes in its lucrative App Store as part the antitrust litigation. Apple appealed the ruling of a lower court that upheld a federal judge's decision in Oakland, California finding Apple in contempt for Epic's lawsuit against App Store fees. Dates for the arguments have not yet been announced. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. PEPSICO TRADEMARK CASE The court will hear arguments regarding a claim by Rise Brewing, a maker of canned coffees, to hold PepsiCo responsible for an alleged trademark violation involving Pepsi’s morning energy beverage "Mtn Dew Rise." Rise Brewing appealed the ruling of a lower court that rejected the company's claim the name "Mtn Dew Rise," infringes on its trademarks, and confuses customers with its coffee brand. No date has been set for the arguments. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
Green Party's political influence increases as it pushes for the phase-out of Norway oil
The idea of closing oil and gas fields in Norway is unsettling. But the Green Party, a small party, is pushing for it as the global shift away from fossil fuels is looming.
After the election on Monday, the Greens' seats more than doubled to seven. The ruling Labour Party needs their support to maintain a two seat majority.
Arild Hermstad, leader of the Green Party, said: "We will prioritise the climate issue."
"We need to make a transition away from fossil fuels and into the renewable energy sector." Norway lacks this today.
The party wants to stop all exploration immediately and phase out petroleum activities by the year 2040. It has even named the first fields that it wants closed - Statfjord Brage Draugen Ula. Eight more fields will be shut down by 2030.
Jonas Gahr Stoere, the newly elected Prime Minister of Norway, said that Norway should continue its exploration for oil and natural gas. This is a sign that negotiations will be difficult.
Norway's oil industry is currently booming with record exports and investments. Workers at the supplier companies, which account for nearly half of the sector's workforce, face increasing risks of being laid off as major projects wind down and new orders are scarce beyond 2028.
Five years ago, when the COVID-19 pandemic was ravaging the world, the government gave more than $10 billion to oil and gas companies in the form of tax breaks and other measures, and also provided modest funding for green energy.
The funding provided by the government has not been able to provide the "bridge" that was hoped for to bring green projects to a level of scale comparable to oil and gas. Most undeveloped discoveries remain small, and they will be unable to replace existing order books or production.
Karl Johnny Hersvik, CEO of oil and gas company Aker BP, said that the tax package was expected to be a gateway into another industry. "Now I am a little concerned... They'll struggle if these yards don't have work.
Aker Solutions, Norway's leading energy services company, cut its revenue forecasts for renewables earlier this year, citing the immaturity of the sector.
The company stated that it is currently very busy in most of its locations but, like many other companies in this sector, depends on future projects to materialize. The company said that it could not rule out future capacity changes.
Worley Rosenberg in Stavanger, which focuses on the oil sector, announced that it would lay off 30 percent of its staff, or around 300 employees, due to declining orders.
Aleksander Eriksen, a union representative, said: "It was shocking." "We do have a new offshore wind contract but it won't be coming anytime soon." In the next year or two, we'll be facing challenges.
Aibel, an energy services firm in Norway that employs 3,900 people, has found alternative employment by building floating converter stations alongside oil and gas platforms for UK and German Wind Farms at its shipyard located in Haugesund, on Norway's West Coast.
OUTPUT FALL-OFF
The scenarios for Norway's oil and gas production all point to a lower level.
According to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, the base-case scenario shows a drop of 40% in production by 2040 and perhaps even 70%.
Torgeir Stordal, Director General of NOD, said: "We will not be able sustain the current plateau in production for much longer."
This is a concern for a sector which accounts for around 50% of Norway's revenue from exports and 10% of the private sector's jobs.
Aker BP’s 700 million barrels of oil equivalent Yggdrasil gas and oil field, which is due to begin in 2027, will be the last one of this size.
The Wisting oilfield, worth nearly 500 million BOE, was delayed until 2022 because of rising costs. The future is in smaller development.
So far, the Norwegian government's efforts to increase exploration in the Barents Sea have not sparked a surge of interest. The Barents Sea is believed to contain the majority of Norway's undiscovered natural resources.
Out of the 15 companies with licenses to operate on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, only Equinor's Var Energi, Aker BP and Eni are drilling explorations wells.
Hersvik, Aker BP's Hersvik said: "If you want to make big discoveries, look at areas that have not been explored."
The decline in Norwegian oil production will increase Europe's dependency on imports of liquefied gas and oil from the U.S.A. and Middle East.
The European Union's rules to end the production of petrol-powered cars by 2035 will also reduce demand for fossil fuels.
All sectors, including heavy industry, are also facing a mandatory target of reducing emissions by 90 percent by 2040 in comparison to 1990 levels.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT
Slow green energy development is a major factor in the lack of new jobs in the sector.
To date, the government has only awarded 1.5 GW of offshore wind capacity. In May, a long-awaited bid for 1.5-2 GW more floating offshore wind capacity was announced.
In a letter sent to Aker Solutions shareholders in May, billionaire Kjell-Inge Roekke said that there had been "little" progress in the sector.
He added that "Norwegian Offshore Wind, as a meaningful source of energy, is at best at least a decade off."
(source: Reuters)