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EIA raises US oil production forecast for 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook Report, released on Tuesday, said that the U.S. production of oil is expected to be higher than previous estimates. However, it did not change its forecast for growth in demand.

The EIA now expects U.S. oil production will average 13,59 million barrels per daily (bpd) by 2025. This is up from the previous estimate of 13,55 million bpd.

The agency maintained its estimate of U.S. petroleum and liquid fuel consumption at 20.5 millions bpd by 2025.

Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has pledged to maximize U.S. production while energy executives insist on capital discipline as a priority.

The agency predicted that Brent crude prices will average $74 by 2025 but fall to $66 by 2026 due to a gradual increase in production and a relatively slow global demand growth.

The EIA stated that OPEC+ will cut production to reduce global oil stocks and maintain crude oil prices at current levels until the first quarter 2025.

OPEC+ is expected to increase their production of liquid fuels by 100,000 bpd. EIA reported that the group's production will rise by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, as it unwinds voluntary production cuts. However, they will still remain below their target levels to try and limit global oil inventory increases.

Through 2026, the U.S.A., Canada Brazil and Guyana will drive output growth outside OPEC+.

EIA stated that the global liquid fuels demand will increase by 1.4m bpd by 2025, and by 1m bpd by 2026. India and China are expected to lead this growth. The EIA stated that the growth is expected to continue at a slower pace than before the pandemic.

EIA stated that any future tariffs imposed by Trump on Canada or Mexico are not expected to have a significant impact on global oil supplies. The agency also said the new U.S. Sanctions on Russia and tariffs were a source of uncertainty in oil prices.

The EIA stated that the closing of two U.S. refining plants will result in a decrease in net U.S. fuel imports to meet domestic demand. Reporting by Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston; Editing and rewriting by Mark Porter & David Gregorio

(source: Reuters)