Latest News
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Trump's tax bill gives a break to coal used in steel production
The latest version of Donald Trump's proposed tax bill includes a reduction in the price of coal used to produce steel. This subsidy could amount to hundreds of millions over a period of 10 years, for a fuel which is mainly exported to China. In April, Trump issued executive orders directing Chris Wright, former CEO of fracking and energy secretary, to determine if metallurgical coal, or met coal, is a critical mineral. Wright did so in May. The latest version of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, released by the Senate over the weekend, allows met coal to claim a tax credit for advanced manufacturing production, which is available for critical minerals and would cover 2.5% of the cost of the fuel. Sonia Aggarwal of Energy Innovation, an non-profit organization, said that allowing met coal get credit was insane as it could hurt efforts to switch to fuels with less carbon intensity. Robbie Orvis is a director at Energy Innovation and estimates that the credit for met coal producers could be worth $300,000,000 over a ten-year period. He also said the subsidy might help China compete against U.S. made steel. If Trump decides to use emergency powers, he could increase production by giving met coal the "critical mineral" classification. This is usually reserved for minerals used in high-tech defence systems. Conor Bernstein is a spokesperson of the National Mining Association. He said that the bill promotes jobs in the United States, manufacturing, and the economy. "Providing incentives to encourage steel-making coal is a way to achieve each of these objectives." The Metallurgical Coal Producers Association of West Virginia has not responded to our requests for comment on how the tax credit will benefit producers. West Virginia, a top U.S. mining state, has experienced several layoffs of met coal workers in the last few months. Ben Beakes of the West Virginia Met coal Association blamed layoffs in local media on inflation. (Reporting and editing by Marguerita Choy)
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Brazil Celebrates UN Recognition of Environmental Gains of Multicropping for Jet Fuel
Brazil's Energy Minister said on Monday that a UN decision recognizing the environmental benefits of Multicropping for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), was a win for the South American nation, where farmers grow more than one type of crop on the same piece land. Two sources claimed that the United States planned to object to a recommendation made by the 36 members of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This was revealed in reports published earlier this month. In a press release, Brazil's Minister for Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira said, "This victory is further proof that Brazil has been the leader in global energy transformation, and we lead with sustainable, equitable and inclusive solutions." According to the Brazilian government, the ICAO made the decision on Friday, June 27 to recognize the benefits multicropping in producing SAF. The ICAO did not respond to a request for comment. The U.S. State Department refused to comment. Tammy Bruce, spokesperson for the State Department, said in March that the recommendation would penalize U.S. farmers and give Brazil unfair advantage over the rest the world. Bruce also stated that it would lower the carbon score of multicropping or farming, which is when two or three crops such as corn and soybeans are grown on the land. This practice is common Brazil. Oliver Griffin and Allison Lampert report from Sao Paulo.
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Dollar falls, stocks hit new record highs
The dollar fell and is set to have its worst performance of the first half in over 50 years. Canada has halted the digital services tax that targeted U.S. tech firms, just hours before its scheduled implementation date. This was done to help advance the stalled negotiations between Washington and Ottawa. Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister and Donald Trump, U.S. president will resume negotiations to reach a trade agreement by July 21. This is an extension of Trump's July 9 deadline. Officials have said that most deals can be completed by Labor Day, September 1, although the July 9 deadline is still valid for other countries. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Monday that the U.S. might return to the tariffs that were in place when Trump announced a range of harsh duties against nations around the world, and that any decision to extend negotiations would be left to Trump. Wall Street saw modest gains in U.S. stock prices, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones closing at record levels. The technology sector led the way, with a gain of 1%, while the consumer discretionary sector was the weakest performing of the eleven major S&P sectors. Roy Behren said, "Animal spirits appear to have taken root here," said Roy Behren. He is the co-president at Westchester Capital Management. It is not uncommon for the final two days of a quarterly to be strong due to the window dressing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 275.50, or 0.63 percent, to 44.094.77. The S&P 500 gained 31.88, or 0.52 percent, to 6,204.95. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 96.28, or 0.48 percent, to 20,369.73. Investors are likely to be watching a number of labor market reports during the holiday-shortened week. The government payrolls report on Thursday will be the highlight. The report will be released a day earlier, and the U.S. Stock Market will close on Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have stated that the strength of labor market allows the central bank to delay cutting rates until it can better gauge the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic stated Monday that the economy still has not fully experienced the impact of Trump's tariffs. He said he expects the Fed to make one more cut this year. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Austan Goolsbee, however, said there was no evidence of stagflation. However, he did see the possibility of both inflation and unemployment getting worse at the same time. Investors also monitored the progress of the massive U.S. spending and tax-cutting bill that is slowly making its slow way through the Senate. The Republicans will attempt to pass the bill on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States over a ten-year period, testing the appetite of foreigners for U.S. Treasury bonds. MSCI's global stock index gained 3.88 points (0.42%) to 918.67, and was on course for its third consecutive session of gains, after reaching an intraday high of 919.47. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.42% but still managed to secure its second consecutive quarterly gain despite a drop of more than 1%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies) fell by 0.41%, falling to 96.80. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 0.55%, reaching $1.1783. The dollar has been struggling all year due to expectations that the Fed will be more aggressive about cutting interest rates in the coming year after Powell is replaced. The dollar has dropped 10.5% in the first half of the year, marking its largest drop since 1973 when the U.S. switched to a freely-floating currency rate. The dollar fell 0.47% against the Japanese yen to 143.97, while the pound rose 0.08% to 1.3725. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 4.9 basis points, to 4.234%. U.S. crude oil settled down by 0.63% at $65.11 per barrel. Brent settled for $67.61 a barrel, down by 0.24%.
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Chevron Scotland to close office as part of restructuring
Chevron, the U.S. oil company, announced on Monday that it will close its Aberdeen office in Scotland. This move is part of the ongoing restructuring. Chevron's spokesperson stated in a press release that the closure of Aberdeen will occur between December 2025-2026. Chevron announced last year that it would sell the remaining UK North Sea oil assets, and leave the basin after 55 years to focus on assets with higher profits. The company has announced plans to cut up to $3 billion of costs by the end next year. This includes the layoff of up to 20% employees. Chevron's presence in the UK will be maintained through its London office. When asked about the number of jobs that would be lost by closing the Aberdeen office, the spokesperson did not respond immediately. Reporting and writing by Shadia Nasralla, London; editing by Cynthia Osterman
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Stocks reach new record highs on optimism about trade and dollar weakness
The dollar fell and is on course for its worst half-year performance since more than 50 years. Canada has halted the digital services tax that targeted U.S. tech firms, just hours before its scheduled implementation date. This was done to help advance stagnant trade negotiations with Washington. Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister and Donald Trump, U.S. president will resume negotiations to reach a trade agreement by July 21. This is an extension of Trump's July 9 deadline. Officials have said that most deals can be completed by Labor Day, September 1, although the deadline for other countries is still July 9. Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, said on Monday that countries should be aware that the U.S. may return to the tariffs that were in place when Trump announced a range of steep duties around the world. He also stated that any decision to extend negotiations will be made by Trump. Wall Street saw modest gains on the back of Friday's record-breaking closing. Financial names led the way, with consumer discretionary the least performing among the 11 major S&P sector. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities. He said: "There's a hope that there will eventually be an accordance with U.S. traders and that slow economic activity will keep inflation in check." The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 146.03, or 0.34 percent, to 43.967.14, while the S&P 500 rose by 10.13, or 0.17 percent, to 6,183.75, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 15.44, or 0.09 percent, to 20,291.55. Investors are likely to be watching a number of labor market reports during the holiday-shortened week. The government payrolls report on Thursday will be the highlight. The report will be released a day earlier, and the U.S. Stock Market will close on Friday because of the Independence Day holiday. Some Fed officials have stated, including Jerome Powell, that the strength of labor markets gives the central banks the flexibility to delay cutting rates until they have a better understanding of how Trump's tariffs may impact inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic stated Monday that the economy is yet to feel the full impact of Trump’s tariffs. He said he still expects the Fed to make a rate cut this year. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank president Austan Goolsbee, however, said there was no evidence of stagflation. However, both unemployment and inflation could worsen simultaneously. Investors also monitored the progress of the massive U.S. spending and tax-cutting bill that is slowly making its journey through the Senate. Republicans will attempt to pass it on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add $3.3 trillion in debt to the United States over the next decade, testing the foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. MSCI's index of global stocks rose 1.49 points or 0.16% to 916.25, and was on course for a third consecutive session of gains, after reaching an intraday high of 9167.05. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down by 0.42% but still managed to secure its second consecutive quarterly gain despite a drop of more than 1%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) fell 0.32% at 96.88. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.47% to $1.1774. The dollar has been struggling all year due to expectations that the Fed will be more aggressive about cutting interest rates in the coming year after Powell is replaced. The dollar has dropped 10.5% in the first half of the year, the biggest fall since 1973 when the U.S. switched to a freely-floating currency. The dollar fell 0.34% against the Japanese yen to 144.16, while the pound rose 0.01% to 1.3716. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 5.3 basis points to 4.2%. U.S. crude dropped 0.63%, to $65.11 per barrel. Brent was down to $67.63 a barrel on the same day.
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Football-FIFPRO considers longer halftimes and more cooling breaks in extreme heat
FIFPRO, the global players' union, is investigating whether increasing halftime from 20 minutes to 20 minutes or introducing more cooling breaks can better protect players against extreme heat. Nine of the sixteen host cities of the 2026 World Cup are at "extreme" risk for heat-related illnesses. Atlanta, Boston Dallas, Guadalajara Houston, Kansas City Miami Monterrey, Philadelphia, and other cities are likely to experience dangerously high temperatures and humidity. This could pose a threat to player safety and lead some to call for cooling aids and schedule changes. FIFPRO's assessments of heat risk are based upon wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT), which is a measurement that combines temperature, humidity and solar radiation with wind speed in order to estimate the environmental conditions that affect a person's body's ability for cooling itself. According to FIFPRO guidelines a WBGT above 28 degrees Celsius indicates that matches should be postponed, or rescheduled in order to protect the health of players. FIFA's guidelines, which set the extreme-risk threshold at 32 degrees Celsius, are higher. However, even with this standard, six out of nine cities will still exceed the safe limit. Major League Soccer has a threshold temperature of 29 degrees Celsius. Vincent Gouttebarge is the Medical Director of FIFPRO. He said, "Cooling Breaks at 30th Minute and 75th Minute are very traditional but it doesn't make any sense from a physiologic point of view." Even if you consume more than 200 ml of fluid you cannot drink it all. I'd like to see a project that looks at the effectiveness of more frequent, but shorter, cooling breaks. Every 15 minutes rather than one every half. LONGER HALFTIMES Gouttebarge questioned if the 15-minute interval at halftime is enough when matches are played under extreme heat. He said that a 15-minute halftime might not be sufficient to lower the core temperature. It could be 20 minutes of halftime, which would be important. This has been proven in the lab and FIFPRO will test it in Portugal with the national union on August. This month's Club World Cup made it clear that there is a need for stronger heat protocols. Two matches, Benfica-Bayern Munich and Chelsea-Esperance both exceeded the WBGT threshold FIFPRO deems unsafe. Gouttebarge stated that "according to our opinion, these games should have either been postponed or rescheduled later in the day." FIFPRO officials acknowledge that FIFA responded in a constructive manner during the tournament, lowering the thresholds for cooling breaks that are mandatory and improving pitch side hydration. However, they stress that proactive planning is essential. Alex Phillips is the FIFPRO General Secratary. He said that FIFA was very responsive to their needs once the tournament started. The team has adapted their approach to heat during matches in response to FIFPRO's advice, and this is a credit to them. It would have been best if this had happened in advance. However, they are better off for having adapted. FIFPRO has warned that the risks highlighted during the Club World Cup could be a preview for what players may face at the expanded World Cup in 2026. Alexander Bielefeld is the Director of FIFPRO's Policy & Strategic Relationships. He added, "We need to find a better balance between the commercial interests of football clubs and their players' health and safety." This was in reference to earlier kickoff times for European television audiences. (Reporting and editing by Ken Ferris; Reporting by Julien Pretot)
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US Judge orders Argentina to transfer YPF Shares to satisfy $16.1 Billion judgment
A U.S. court judge ordered Argentina on Monday to give up 51% of its stake in the oil and gas company YPF to satisfy a $16.1-billion judgment against it. U.S. District Court Judge Loretta Preska, in Manhattan, said Argentina had to transfer its YPF share within 14 days into a BNY Mellon account and instruct this bank to transfer those shares to the plaintiffs within one business day. Argentina appealed Preska's decision of September 2023 to award $16.1 billion to Petersen Energia Inversora, Eton Park Capital Management and litigation funder Burford Capital. Preska's ruling came the same day Argentina requested that the High Court of London block the enforcement of the judgment. The case arose after Argentina seizes the 51% stake in YPF held by Spain’s Repsol without tendering shares held by minor investors. Burford said that it expects to receive between 35% and 73% respectively of Petersen and Eton Park damages. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, New York Editing Mark Potter
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India extends met coke import restrictions for six months
A government order announced on Monday that the Indian government had extended its import restrictions on low-ash coke (a raw material for steelmaking) by six months, starting in July. This was a major blow to steelmakers, who opposed restrictions on overseas purchases. The order stated that India, the second largest crude steel producer in the world, would set country-specific imports quotas, and limit purchases to 1.4 million metric tonnes from July 1 through December 31. In February, it was reported that India would be willing to extend the restrictions on met coke with low ash imports in order to encourage steel mills locally to purchase from domestic suppliers. In May, it reported that India's Steel Ministry was in favor of extending the restrictions. Major steel producers such as ArcelorMittal Nippon India, and JSW Steel are concerned about the curbs. They claim that they will hinder their expansion plans, because it's difficult to find preferred grades locally. In April, India's Commerce minister Piyush Goyal urged steelmakers in India to source metcoke locally. India also launched an anti-dumping investigation into overseas supplies low-ash metcoke from Australia and China. It has also opened an inquiry in response to a request by an industry group. China, Japan and Indonesia are the major raw material suppliers. Poland, Switzerland, and Poland also contribute to the imports. Reporting by Neha Meenaktshi and Harshita Arora. (Editing by Susan Fenton, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
The case for forever high rates of interest
If monetary markets are right, rates of interest won't simply remain high this year, but perhaps permanently.
The return of inflation means ultra-low rates are history. And markets now reflect a circumstance where even the neutral rate of interest that balances the economy in the long run after factoring in inflation, dubbed 'R-star', is rising, economic experts say.
Traders see U.S. rates at around 4% at the end of the decade, far higher than policymakers' 2.6% long-run expectations. Euro location rates are seen around 2.5%, above what has actually dominated for most of the bloc's history.
Making the right call on where rates settle is a big challenge for financiers and policymakers-- many economists reckon R-star is lower than before the excellent monetary crisis, Disagree on how to calculate it, its present level and whether it is increasing.
BNY Mellon Financial investment Management's chief economic expert, Shamik Dhar, who reckons R-star has increased is nervous that hasn't been fully priced into equity and home markets.
We check out five factors that will figure out rates of interest in the longer term:
1/ FOOTING THE COSTS
Substantial financial investment needs, whether climate or military, and increasing interest expenses will keep federal government borrowing high.
Economists dispute the impact of increasing debt however some expect spending requirements will drive rates up.
Advanced economy deficit spending at 5.6% of output in 2023 were nearly double 2019's 3% and will stay raised at 3.6% in 2029, the IMF estimates.
Aviva Investors' head of rates Ed Hutchings stated higher deficits would raise the premium financiers demand to hold government bonds.
But performance gains have slowed and possible development is seen controlled on both sides of the Atlantic, elements financial experts reckon moisten investment.
That would argue for less of an increase in neutral policy rates, said First Eagle Investment Management portfolio manager Idanna Appio, a previous Fed economist.
2/ OLDER
Demographics is among the biggest unpredictabilities facing longer-term rates, said BNY Mellon's Dhar, a previous Bank of England economic expert.
There is agreement that a cost savings glut helped by pre-retirement hoarding in abundant countries has depressed rates.
That may continue; 16% of the world population will be over 65 in 2050, from 10% in 2022, the United Nations projects. That will likely be most highly felt in Europe.
However the ratio of dependents, consisting of retired people, to workers is increasing. That will cause rates to rise as age-related spending cuts conserving, financial experts Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan argue.
Plugging pension shortfalls through loaning would also put up pressure to rates, Nomura said.
3/ HEATING UP
Assessing the economic effect of climate change is another big difficulty.
The green transition requires big investment that might raise rates, states the European Reserve bank's Isabel Schnabel, comparing the scale required to restoring Europe after World War II.
The physical impacts of environment modification likewise risk bouts of higher inflation and cost volatility.
But they may shave as much as 17% off international output by 2050. The damage threatens performance and might press R-star lower, an ECB paper argues.
More expensive clean energy might eventually decrease investment demand and therefore rates, the IMF states.
Soeren Radde, head of European financial research at hedge fund Point72, called the impact of climate modification on rates a. big open argument.
We have actually got negative shocks that basically ruin demand. It's not clear that will raise R-star, he said.
4/ AI MANIA
How much the technological transformation can raise efficiency. and rates is hotly discussed.
An AI-driven performance boost might raise U.S. financial. growth by 0.4 percentage points and by 0.3 points in other. established economies by 2034, Goldman Sachs expects. It sees. upward pressure on rates, specifically if AI adoption is. frontloaded.
If the effect of AI is on par with electricity, development will. balanced out group pressures, Lead reckons. It may. disappoint if comparable to computers and the internet.
5/ BRAND-NEW TRUTH
The COVID-19 pandemic, wars in Ukraine and Gaza and. U.S.-China trade stress indicate greater supply-shock dangers. ahead.
If central banks have to act versus them ... that can. on average lift the level of rates of interest, Point72's Radde. stated.
Also risking higher rates is friendshoring, whereby. Western nations and companies seek to trade more with allies. rather than China.
Any of that is going to be, by nature of the fact that it. is not the most affordable location to produce, more inflationary, stated. Columbia Threadneedle's head of set earnings Roman Gaiser.
Mexico, for example, is now the most significant source of U.S. imports.
(source: Reuters)