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The ROI-LME wanted to buy more lead. Andy Home

Lead is everywhere.

The London Metal Exchange's (LME) stock of battery metal increased by 58% over the course of two days this week. This was due to the warranting?of 171,175 tons in Singapore warehouses.

The exchange should be happy. The exchange reduced listing fees between April 2024 to December?2025 for smaller lead producers in order to "enhance the liquidity" of its lead contract.

Evidently, it's?worked.

LME's lead stock has risen to nearly 500,000 tons over the past few months, with?large? tonnes sitting in off-warranty storage.

Metals that are not loved have become the preferred metallic financing tool. Most of the inventory is located in Singapore and it rotates between warehouses to find better rental deals.

This week’s burst in warranting activity was just the latest and largest of such rotations.

Where did all this metal come? How much more metal is to come?

WAREHOUSE ROULETTE

LME lead stocks are characterized by large and concentrated bursts that warrant action. This has been going on for several months.

The trade in question is more about arbitrage in warehousing than it is about lead market fundamentals.

The trader in this instance, Trafigura, placed a large quantity of metal on the LME warrant and agreed with the warehouse operator to split the future rental fees.

The new owner is likely to cancel the warrants quickly to avoid the rental agreement and move the metal to another warehouse company.

Stock?churn used to be a key feature of the LME Aluminium market. However, inventory has now dropped below 400,000 tons including non-warranty stocks.

The lead is now the game.

Some of the "stocks" that arrived this week were simply moved from off-warrant stock. Singapore's stocks fell by 34.256 tons when the first 83.225-ton metal tranche was warranted on Monday. There are still 142,598 tonnes of metal that could be warrantable ahead of the second delivery on Tuesday.

INDIAN EXPORTS SURGE

At the end of June, Indian-made lead represented 76% of all LME inventories on warrant. In January 2023, there was no Indian metal in the LME system.

According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, which collects trade statistics from official customs data, Indian exports grew from 151,000 tonnes in 2022 to 482,000 ton?last year.

Singapore is a popular destination even though it's not a major hub for lead-acid battery manufacturing, which is the primary application of the metal.

Since the beginning of 2023, Singapore has received more than 400,000 tons. In November 2025 they reached a peak of 31,000 tons, which was almost half the total refined lead exported by India.

There were three lead brands registered at the LME until last year. Two of them were produced by Hindustan Zinc, a large mine-to refinery primary producer. The third was by Jain Resource Recycling, a secondary producer.

Last year, five more brands with a combined production capacity of 195,000 tonnes were added as part of LME's "drive" to encourage smaller secondary lead producers.

Gravita India has become the ninth Indian leading brand to achieve LME Good Delivery status.

Change of flow

As more Indian producers register with the exchange, it is likely that there will be a greater flow of lead to LME storage in Singapore.

India's trading patterns have changed this year.

According to the WBMS, exports to Singapore in April were only 1,555 tons, which was the lowest monthly total in a whole year.

China was the main destination for April's exports, with 8,685 tonnes accounting for 34%.

It is a very new market for Indian Metal. China imported very little refined lead last year, and only took 500 tons of it from India.

WBMS data shows that imports of mushrooms from India reached 57,000 tons during the first five months this year. This brings the total to 132,000 tonnes, the highest number since 2009.

It is unclear why China suddenly requires so much lead, but the fact that it does means that less Indian metal will be heading to LME Singapore warehouses.

This still leaves Singapore with a large amount of metal that is being sold through warehouse deals.

This week, the sudden 'appearance' of so much?lead sent LME 3-month metals tumbling to a 15-month-low of $1840 per ton.

The chances of a sustained economic recovery are dependent?on the length of time China diverts Indian metal flows from LME Singapore warehouses.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)