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German Parliament passes a heating law that eases renewable energy requirements
The German Parliament passed on Friday a controversial heating law that scraps the requirement for new building heating systems to derive at least 60% of their energy sources from renewable resources. From 2029, new gas and oil systems will be required to blend in climate-neutral fuels at a rate of 10% by 2040. According to the government's plan, heating fuels will be completely climate neutral?by 2045. This is in line with Germany’s larger climate goals. The Left Party had sought to delay the vote in the parliament by bringing a last-minute 'injunction'. However, the Constitutional Court on Thursday refused. Environmental groups and opposition legislators have criticized the new legislation for reducing climate protection and slowing the transition away from fossil fuels. The government claims that the changes will allow homeowners to choose heating systems more freely and simplify the rules implemented by the previous administration. The bill must still be presented to the Bundesrat, which is the representative body of Germany's 16 states. The 'Bundesrat' can request amendments via a conciliation committee, but it cannot block a bill. (Reporting and writing by Christian Kraemer, Holger Hansen; editing by Kirsti Knolle).
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IEA reduces Russian oil production forecasts due to Ukrainian attacks
The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its estimate on Friday to reflect the fact that Russian oil production will decline by 3% this year to 8.9m barrels per day due to Ukrainian drone attacks against 'energy infrastructure. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian energy installations, including oil refineries. The aim is to stop Moscow's war effort. The Paris-based agency stated in its monthly outlook that "continued strikes against refineries, storage and transport facilities have weakened the production outlook. We have therefore cut our Russian Supply Outlook for this year and next by 85,000 barrels a day and 150,000 bpd, respectively, to an average of 8.8 million barrels a day over 'the forecast period. In response to the attacks, Russia has also imposed a ban on diesel exports, as well as restrictions on gasoline and jet fuel sales abroad, in order to combat domestic fuel shortages. The IEA predicts that oil production from Russia, which is the third largest producer in the world, will reach 8.9 mbpd by this year, and 8.8 mbpd by 2027. This is down from 9.2 mmbpd produced in 2025. The agency reported that Russia's crude production in June increased by 120,000 bpd compared to May, reaching 8.86 million bpd. This is 900,000 bpd less than the quota established by the OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. Last month, Alexander Novak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, acknowledged that Russian oil production had fallen since the beginning of the year. He blamed the drop on unplanned maintenance at refineries. Russia stopped publishing oil production data in April '2023, just over a year since the beginning of the conflict?in Ukraine. In recent months, the attacks on Ukrainian refineries also contributed to a rise in Russian crude exports. According to industry sources, shipments from Russia's western port ports reached a record in June. They are expected to maintain this level in July. Sources' data revealed that exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk along with Ust-Luga and the Black Sea port?of Novorossiysk reached almost 3 million bpd in June. The IEA estimated that Russia's crude oil exports reached 5.8 million bpd in June, an increase of 620,000 bpd over May. Last month, oil products exports fell by 230,000 bpd compared to May.
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As tensions between the US and Iran fuel fears of rate hikes, gold is expected to lose value this week
Gold was down on Friday and set to lose a 'weekly loss' as concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy were fueled by rising crude oil prices and tensions between Iran and the United States. By 1106 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.4% to $4105.97 an ounce, a decline of about 1.6% over the past week. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.6% to $4114.80 an ounce. Han Tan, Bybit's chief market analyst, said that spot prices "may again test $4,000 per ounce as a psychological support level should tensions escalate and oil prices extend their recovery." The oil market is set to see a weekly gain after Iranian forces attacked U.S. military installations in Gulf States on Thursday. This was a day after Washington had targeted Iran's eastern and southern coasts. Inflation can be boosted by higher energy prices, and this may lead central banks to increase interest rates. This tends to put pressure on gold, as the metal offers no return. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing in 58% of a rate hike for September. Investors will be watching closely the U.S. inflation figures due next week, as well as Kevin Warsh's testimony. Tan added that it is unlikely to see a change in the Fed's hawkish position without a sustained moderate of U.S. inflation. The minutes of the Fed's meeting in June showed that inflation was a growing concern. Some policymakers were urging a rate increase before rates remained unchanged. Gold prices in India fell this week due to price volatility, but demand in China was steady. The central bank of China reported its biggest monthly increase in gold reserves for more than 2-1/2 years. Other metals include?spot-silver, which fell by 1.1% per ounce to $59.34, platinum, which gained 0.51%, and palladium, which climbed 1.6%, to $1.267.80. All three metals are on course for a loss this week. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru, Leroy Leo, Subhranshu sahu)
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Weekend Reads: Drones and Messi
Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads is a weekly roundup of what the Open Interest team was reading, watching, and listening to. This week's picks include the impact of war on?energy security and food, China's ability to leverage critical minerals, and World Cup drama. We'll be reading RON BOUSSO's ROI Energy Columnist's paper, which examines the global impacts of Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's oil refinery infrastructure. The analysis provides great detail about the extent of the damage. CLYDE RUSSELL is a columnist for ROI Asia 'Commodities and Energy. The Iran War threatened to cause a food shortage. The next Gulf conflict could have the same effect. It's a good read by our colleagues about the possible?fallout on the fertilizer markets. ANDY HOME is the ROI Metals columnist. This article? This article documents the increasing impact that China's export restriction on rare earths is having on Japanese industries. This article is a good reminder of China's power over the West, and their willingness to use that power. We are listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI. ROI Editor-in Charge: The Japanese yen’s slide to multidecade lows, isn't only a'story' for currency traders. Carmel Crimmins, host of Econ World's latest episode, talks with Rocky Swift, chief correspondent for Japan's markets, about the reasons behind the currency's decline, how Tokyo is reacting, and what it means for us. We're watching... AL REED ROI Research Assistant.?With 2026 FIFA World Cup well into the knockout stage, a curated daily selection highlights some the most memorable moments of the tournament -- from 'triumph and 'heartbreak' to dramatic 'twists in fortune'. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. These views do not represent those of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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Bloomberg reports that SoftBank and PayPay are in talks to invest Seven & i.
Bloomberg News reported that SoftBank 'Corp and mobile payment operator PayPay were?in discussions to invest in retail juggernaut Seven & i Holdings. Bloomberg reported that the investment is likely to 'total several hundred billion yen.' Sumitomo Mitsui Card - a division of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group - may also be a shareholder. Could not verify the report immediately. SoftBank, Seven & i PayPay, SMFG and SMFG declined comment. Seven & i operates 7-11 stores around the world, with Japan and America as its two largest markets. The investment would be a great boost to the embattled 'Seven & i', who have failed to revive their flagging business a full year after their prolonged tussle against Canadian convenience store competitor Alimentation Couche-Tard, which had 'tried to take them over in what would have?been Japan’s largest foreign buyout. Seven & i was under pressure for years from investors about its poor returns, and it faced calls to focus on the core convenience store business. Private equity firm Bain Capital has agreed to buy the supermarket business in March 2025. This includes stores that are larger than convenience stores, and operate under different brand names. Bloomberg reported that SoftBank aims to 'use its artificial intelligence in-house to improve store management, and to introduce autonomous robotics to reduce'manpower? in Seven & i shops. SoftBank Corp., the domestic telecommunications division of SoftBank Group has developed AI tools with OpenAI, the ChatGPT maker. OpenAI is the focus of a massive?investment drive, with SoftBank Group’s commitment investment to reach $60 billion by 2026.
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Oil market mapping: Unfinished business may mean more pain in the future
The U.S. price of oil has fallen by nearly 40% since May. This has also brought down the cost of gasoline. However, technical analysis indicates that there is still a risk of another move upward. Click here for a more detailed chart. According to LSEG, there are two price gaps on the oil charts, one between May 19-20, and another between June 12-15. In many markets, gaps are unfilled spaces in the price charts. The traders believe that'such gaps will eventually be filled. Prices typically trade through the range before settling on a different direction. Oil is currently trading at around $70 per barrel. The closest gap lies between the?June 12 close of $84.88 a barrel and the June 15 opening of $81.40. The renewed friction between the U.S. This week, Iran and the United States pushed crude oil just above $76, moving closer to this zone but still not closing it. Second, and more distant, is the gap between the close on May 19, $107.77, and the open on May 20, $104.12. Since it took about a month-and-a-half for prices to drop from these levels, drivers could be charged more if they fill that gap. Prices could continue to fall if gaps are not filled. The longer U.S. - Iran tensions continue and prices remain near their current levels, the more powerful the pull may be. The chart below shows: There are still two price gaps above current oil prices * Nearest gap: $81.40-$84.88 (June ?12-15) * Higher gap: $104.12-$107.77 (19-20 May)
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UN agency reports that dust storms will be record-breaking along the US-Mexico border in China and 2025.
In a report released on Friday, the World 'Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said that in 2025 record-breaking dust and sand storms will hit parts of China, the U.S. border region, and the border region between Mexico and the United States. These storms are expected to disrupt?transportation, damage health, as well as the environment. The report concluded that in April 2025, dust from Mongolia caused China's worst dust and sand storm for a decade. This was measured by intensity, length?and geographic reach. Dust?storms along the U.S./Mexico border were unusually intense and frequent. El Paso in Texas recorded 50 dust-weather days between 2025 and 2026, which is more than double what it averaged annually, and is the highest number since the "Dust Bowl disaster" of the 1930s. The Bodele Depression, in Chad is one of the most active dust regions on earth. Around 2 billion tonnes of dust are released into the atmosphere every year. Most of it originates in desert areas such as the Sahara Desert, Gobi Desert and Arabian Desert. Dust transport is a normal process. However, factors such as drought, poor land-management and environmental degradation contribute to the problem. The report said that although global average dust levels remained largely unchanged from the previous year, severe regional dust events showed a growing risk posed by dust and sand storms which affect over 150 countries around the world. Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin, Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus
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EGA will ramp up Al Taweelah's alumina refinery within days to 50% capacity
Emirates Global Aluminium announced on Friday that its Al Taweelah refinery in Abu Dhabi had restarted the production of feedstock for aluminum smelting. The restart has raised expectations of a faster than expected recovery in aluminium production, after disruptions caused by war with Iran. It also added pressure on benchmark prices for aluminum at the London Metal Exchange. The contract was last down 1.5%, at $3.152 per metric ton. In early July, EGA announced that it would restore production at the Al Taweelah Complex earlier than expected, although hot metal production could take up to one year to return to previous levels. In late March, Iranian missiles struck the Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi and damaged the complex. This forced an emergency shut down. Al Taweelah's refinery will produce?2.4 millions of tons of alumina by 2025 and meet 46% of EGA’s alumina requirements. EGA said in a press release that the timing of "further production ramp ups" at the alumina refinery would depend on the supply chain conditions as well as the optimization of EGA's alumina procurement strategy. The company, which is jointly owned by Abu Dhabi sovereign fund Mubadala, and state-owned Investment Corporation of Dubai, hopes to have the technical ability to return the alumina refining plant to full production before the end of 2026. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Tom Daly and Polina Devitt)
The share of Russian Aluminium in LME stocks has increased to 95% by June
Exchange data revealed?on Friday that the share of Russian-origin aluminum stocks in London Metal Exchange storage warehouses increased to 95% from 93% in may. This leaves only a small amount of Indian aluminium as an alternative.
The total available or on-warrant aluminium inventories (0#MALSTXLOC>) fell by 3% to 246,600 tons in June, the lowest level since April 2025. This was due to the global supply being tightened as a result of the conflict in?Middle East.
The available Russian aluminium inventories fell by 3,150 tons to 234,025 in June. However, their share of the total inventories rose as Indian stocks declined by an even greater 4,875 tons.
At the end of June, there were only 12,575 metric tons of Indian aluminium in LME's warehouses. No other country was represented.
Despite the fact that material produced prior to April 13, 2024 is still eligible for trading, many traders are avoiding Russian metal. Aluminum produced in Russia after April 13, 2024 was banned from the LME warehouse system as a result of Western sanctions.
The share of Chinese copper in the available LME Copper Stocks 0#MCUSTX-LOC> increased to 59% in June, from 53% in may. The increase occurred despite a decrease in the volume of Chinese Copper by 22,375 tonnes to 118.650 tons. Stocks from Australia, Chile Peru and South Korea were also declining.
The total available copper stock decreased by 65.175, to 201.700 tonnes, the lowest level since February.
At the end last month, the share of?nickel of Chinese origin was reduced to?70% compared with 75% at May's end. Reporting by Tom Daly. Mark Potter (Editing)
(source: Reuters)