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Oil slips as Warsh predicts lower inflation expectations
The index of'stock markets around world' edged up a little bit on Wednesday, as the U.S. head of the central bank said that?inflation -expectations had fallen. Crude oil prices also fell as optimism about U.S. - Iran talks reduced supply concerns. The traders also kept an eye out for any possible Japanese intervention on the currency markets after the yen hit new lows of 40 years against the dollar. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, said that inflation expectations and risks have decreased in recent weeks. Kevin Warsh said that his fellow U.S. Policymakers would decide if they will raise interest rates at their next meeting. He kept his promise to not give forward guidance. His comments have weighed heavily on the dollar. This is because rising expectations for Fed rate increases this year are a factor, since inflation has risen well above the central banks' 2% target. Many analysts still believe that the inflation situation will improve in coming months. Steve Englander, Standard Chartered Bank's New York branch head of global G10 research and North America Macro Strategy, said that there is no evidence that the imbalance between inflation and activity has grown rapidly. Englander said that "you can afford to wait until these longer-term technology trends are played out." What we see is that unit labor costs are incredibly soft, and the Fed ultimately controls this. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.13%, while the euro fell 0.35%, at $1.1381. The dollar's last decline against the Japanese yen was 0.07%, to 162.43. Futures indicate that the Fed will not make any changes at its meeting in late August, but a rate hike is expected in September. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 239.04 points or 0.46% to 52,558.24. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 15.04 points or 0.20% to 7,514.40, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 34.22 points or 0.13% to 26,179.50. The MSCI gauge of global stocks rose 0.61 points or 0.05% to 1,121.07 and the pan-European STOXX 600 fell?0.31%. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 broad index dropped 10.51 points or 0.41%. Emerging market stocks increased 0.82 points, or 0.05% to 1,723.71. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.6%, after surging by 37% in the last quarter. Strong tech demand lifted sentiment among major manufacturers to an 8-year high. South Korea's index dropped about 2% after a rally of 68% last quarter, driven by AI-driven chip demand. Oil prices dropped on the energy markets as optimism about U.S. Iran talks eased supply worries. Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said: "The current negotiations in Qatar are perceived to be positive and this has allowed the prices to drift even further." "We could even see lower prices." U.S. crude dropped 1.74%, to $68.29 per barrel. Brent was down to $71.35 a barrel, a drop of 2.19% from the previous day. Both are up almost 20% on a year-to date basis despite sharp price drops last quarter. After posting its biggest quarterly drop in 2013 on Tuesday, spot gold rose nearly 2%.
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US bakes in unprecedented heatwave leading up to July 4 holiday
Brad Brooks P.J. Huffstutter, Maria Tsvetkova HILL CITY/CHICAGO/NEW-YORK/JULY 1 - On Wednesday, record-breaking temperatures moved eastward from the Midwest, placing tens of millions under heat warnings that are expected to last through the holiday weekend on July 4, when Americans celebrate the 250th anniversary of the United States. Extreme heat is expected to raise "real-feeling" temperatures from 100 to 115 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8-46.1 degrees Celsius) in much of the region. This will increase the risk of heat related illness among vulnerable populations and threaten to overwhelm power grids that are already stressed by data centers and electric cars. Sabrina Hooper, a mail carrier in Hill City, Kansas (a high plains town located 270 miles east from Denver), was battling the heat just one week into her new job. Hooper, 34 said that the heat was debilitating to her job, which involves walking up to ten miles each day in order to deliver parcels. She says she finds relief in lawn sprinklers. "It's really nice." You can remove your hat, get it soaked, and then put it back on. Hill City, the nation's hot spot, was at 108 degrees for five days straight in 2012. Another record-breaking heatwave hit the region and pushed the heat index to 108. Heat index is a measure of how you feel when you add humidity to the temperature. Michelle Klein, 57 years old, a high-school science teacher in Chicago, began preparing over the weekend for the heat. She filled up her car, did her weekly shopping early, and stocked her refrigerator with cold drinks. She also gave her plants an extra soak. Klein, who went for her evening walk on Tuesday despite a heat index of 103 degrees, said that the basil needed more water. Amy Kaspar, a property investor in the suburbs of the city, received an urgent call from a tenant who's air conditioner only blew out warm air. Kaspar found that the air conditioner was in perfect working order, but it could not cool the unit due to the heat and humidity. Kaspar, a 50-year-old man, said, "With the wind it feels like you're standing right behind a bus exhaust in Chicago." Scientists said that the scorching temperatures in the U.S. were similar to those of western Europe which was recently engulfed by its own record-breaking Heatwave. This event would have been "virtually unachievable" without climate change caused by humans. Through years of research, scientists have proven that greenhouse gas emission makes heatwaves more intense and likely around the globe. New York City only experienced extreme heat on Wednesday morning. By then, the city had already opened hundreds of cooling centres and sent out more than a dozen 'cool vans' equipped with water electrolytes sunscreen and meals to help New Yorkers who were in need of relief. On Wednesday, the air conditioning was turned up to the max at a Harlem senior center. A sign in thirteen languages advertised the facility as a "cooling?center" open to the public. Richard Allman, the director of the senior center, announced that it would be open past its normal hours during the July 4 weekend. He said, "We make sure that this is a place where people can feel comfortable on a hot day." Before the heatwave hit, city officials asked sign operators in Times Square to lower the brightness of their signs to save energy. They also requested that businesses keep thermostats at a maximum of 78 degrees. Con Edison, the city's energy supplier, asked customers to reduce their energy consumption between 2 pm and 10 pm. The city also increased the hours of public pools, opened additional cooling centres in libraries and municipal building, and expanded its street outreach efforts. Reporting by Brad Brooks from Hill City, Kansas and P.J. Huffstutter, Maria Tsvetkova, Joseph Ax and Julia Harte in New York.
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Sources say that China has restricted some Fortescue iron-ore cargoes due to deteriorating talks.
Sources in the industry said that China's state buyer of iron ore has asked some domestic steel mills to not accept certain portside products of iron ore from Fortescue. This is the latest Australian miner to be snared by Beijing's efforts to 'increase' control over the market. Five sources familiar with the matter said that China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), notified mills verbally on July 15th, they should not accept portside cargoes containing Fortescue’s Super Special Fines or Fortune Fines. These are both lower-grade products of iron ore. The move is part of CMRG’s campaign to assert its control over the way iron ore is entered into the Chinese?market. It follows a months-long dispute with BHP, which ended in April. Fortescue exports most of its iron ores to China, and is still negotiating with CMRG about supply terms. CMRG - and Fortescue - did not respond immediately to requests for comments outside of 'working hours. As of 1503 GMT, the most active August 'iron ore futures' contract on the Singapore Exchange had risen 2.53% to $100 per metric ton after reaching its highest level since June 17, at $101.2 during the evening trading session. As of June 30, a trader who requested anonymity said that Fortescue’s Super Special fines stocks in some major Chinese port cities stood at 7,22 million tons. According to data from Steelhome, this represents almost 5% of the total portside stocks of iron ore. . CMRG told some domestic'steelmakers last month not to discuss with Fortescue a new iron-ore product - Fortune Fines – scheduled for shipments starting in July. Fortescue confirmed that its China president left in June, only four months after taking up the position. BHP announced in mid-April it had ended supply contract negotiations with CMRG. This was the end of a long-running dispute. Beijing then lifted its bans on a number of BHP's products. CMRG, which was founded in 2022, is part of Beijing’s effort to centralise iron ore procurement as well as win better terms from mining giants upstream. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise and Kevin Liffey; Staff)
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SMM reports that Antofagasta has agreed to spot-indexed sales of copper ore with certain Chinese smelters.
The industry information provider SMM reported on Wednesday that Antofagasta, a Chilean copper miner, has agreed to supply?term copper concentrator supplies to certain Chinese smelters with spot-indexed prices and a floor guaranteed. The reported deal would be a departure from a long-standing practice in which miners sold term supplies for fixed treatment and refinement charges (TC/RC), which serve as a benchmark globally. Antofagasta stated that its negotiations are confidential and it does not discuss them with other parties. The smelters receive a TC/RC from the miners to refine copper concentrate. However, charges on the spot market are incredibly low due to an 'ore shortage. The smelters are now paying for?processing material and there is increased pressure on the benchmark which has been set at zero until 2026. Some miners have already abandoned this benchmark. Chinese smelters resisted Antofagasta’s proposal to switch from spot-indexed pricing to term-supply negotiations at mid-year, arguing that it would reduce price certainty. SMM reported that after Antofagasta demanded the change, both sides came to an "innovative compromise" whereby TC/RCs are linked to an index while also being subject to a floor guarantee. Antofagasta is not allowed to sell?term concentration at TC/RCs that are below a certain level. According to the Argus, spot TCs were minus $126.80 per metric ton by the end of last week. The SMM report didn't say what the floor level would be. Tom Daly reported. Lewis Jackson, Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson contributed to the reporting. Mark Potter (editing)
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US construction spending increases in May but homebuilding is weak
The U.S. construction sector grew in May, despite the fact that mortgage rates were higher due to the Middle East conflict. Census Bureau of the Commerce Department?said that construction spending increased 0.1% on Wednesday after a downwardly-revised 0.3% rise in April. Economists surveyed by predicted construction spending would gain 0.1% following a previously reported increase of 0.4% in April. In May, construction spending declined 1.5% compared to the same month last year. The amount spent on private construction projects remained unchanged in May after increasing by 0.3% the previous month. Residential construction investment increased by 0.3% due to renovations. The spending on single-family housing projects fell by 0.1%. In May, it fell 4.0% on an annual basis. The U.S. Israel war against Iran has boosted?oil rates, which in turn have pushed up mortgage rates and inflation. Data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac shows that the average?rate of the?popular 30 year fixed-rate mortgage increased by 50 basis points after the conflict began at the end February. It averaged 6.49 % last week. The spending on multi-family units, which make up a tiny part of the housing market in May, fell by 0.1%. In May, investment in non-residential private structures like?power plants and factories fell by 0.3%. The spending on factory construction fell by 1.3% while power plant expenditures decreased by 0.1%. This is despite an increase in data centers for artificial intelligence. Investments in?public-sector construction projects increased by 0.5% in May, following a similar increase in April. State and local government construction spending increased 0.4% in May, while federal government expenditures jumped 1.3%. This is likely due to the building of immigration detention centers. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; Reporting by Lucia Mutikani)
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Sources say that OPEC+ is likely to increase oil production targets again in August.
Three sources told Reuters that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a 'further increase in their 'output targets for August, when they meet?Sunday. This will add supply at a moment of falling prices, as the Strait of Hormuz slowly reopens. Sources said that the target for August will be the same as it was for June and for July. OPEC didn't immediately respond to a comment request. All sources, who spoke under condition of anonymity, said that 'no decision has been finalized. Seven members of OPEC+ (which groups OPEC, Russia and other producers) have increased their 'output quotas between April and July by nearly 800,000 barrels a day. The Iran War has, however, led to a sharp decline in production among key members. OPEC data shows that OPEC+ production fell from 42.77 to 33.13 millions bpd between February and May. Oil prices have returned to prewar levels despite the pressure from weaker Chinese imports and higher exports by non-Middle East suppliers. The International Energy Agency coordinated a record-breaking'strategic inventory release', which helped to ease supply concerns. Brent crude was trading just above $72 per barrel at 1309 GMT. Sources said last week that Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer after Saudi Arabia, and one of the five founding members had considered quitting the group if not allowed to increase its oil production significantly. Baghdad officials later said that they were in favor of a re-evaluation of OPEC's production quotas, to reflect the current conditions within member states. Rollback of 2023 Supply Cut The seven producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia. Iraq, Kuwait. Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman - are increasing output as part of a gradual rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cut in supply agreed upon in 2023 when the group included?the UAE. The UAE left the alliance at the end of April to better align its production with its capacity, without the production restrictions imposed by the group. OPEC+ has been reviewing the oil?production capacities of its members to serve as a benchmark for production baselines in 2027, from which quotas will be set. Calculations show that the seven countries will have to bring back 379,000 bpd from the original cut by August. This is after the UAE's exit in May. If the group continues to unwind at the same rate, they will have unwound the remaining cut by September.
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UK's National Grid invests $1.75 Billion in AI power boom through Joulent Investment
Britain's National Grid said on Wednesday that it would invest $1.75billion for a 35 percent stake in Joulent. Joulent is a U.S. platform for developing power infrastructure for the data centres. It wants to take advantage of the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI. The agreement will fund Joulent’s first project: a 2,67-gigawatt, gas-fired facility developed in a joint venture with Chevron in?West Texas. Chevron will also supply power to a Microsoft data centre campus under a 20 year power purchase contract. National Grid's shares dropped 1.4%, trading at 1,230.5 pence as of?1142 GMT. AI-related demand for electricity is changing the global energy market. The demand for data centres to power artificial intelligence services grew?by 17 percent in 2025. This was far greater than the growth of 3% in global electricity 'demand. National Grid stated that the?investment would add to its existing capital investment programme for five years of at least PS70bn through fiscal year 2020 and be funded by available capacity in its balance sheet. The company stated that the transaction would not affect its current financial situation. We would expect that the returns on this investment through National Grid Ventures will be higher than the 9-10% equity return we expect from regulated networks, reflecting a slightly greater relative risk profile. Morgan analysts stated in a report. National Grid stated that the strategic partnership would also strengthen their 'existing data center connection programme. They expect to connect over 10 gigawatts in the UK and United States within the next five year. Kilby is the name of the 'project, which has already secured crucial equipment including GE Vernova Turbines, reserved engineering and construction capacities, and aims to start delivering electricity by 2028. National Grid stated that Joulent will be able to generate a positive cash flow from early 2030s. The final investment decision for the Joulent stake should be made by the end 2026. Reporting by DhanushVigneshbabu in Bengaluru, Editing by Jonathan Ananda & Emelia Sithole Matarise
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Petrobras CEO believes oil will settle in the range of $72 to 75 per barrel
The chief executive of Brazil's state oil company Petrobras said that the oil prices have remained in a range between $72 and $75 per barrel. However, the market is yet to 'normalize fully,' he added. Petrobras announced its decision to lower diesel prices on Tuesday evening, reflecting the fall in Brent crude oil prices. CEO Magda Chambriard confirmed this in an interview that same day. Brent crude futures traded at $72.05 per barrel on Wednesday. This is close to the price seen the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their military campaign against Iran. Chambriard stated that "the oil market hasn't yet returned to normal but $75-$72 seems to be the new range." Petrobras has announced a price reduction of 0.3515 Reais per liter of diesel that it sells to its distributors. This is equal to the amount of the government subsidy now being removed. The company's selling prices will therefore remain unchanged. According to an announcement by Finance Minister Dario Durigan on Tuesday, the government's diesel subsidies, which were introduced to 'cushion the effect of the Iran War, will expire on Wednesday. According to Durigan, other fuel subsidies are being reviewed for gradual phase-out following the drop in oil prices and easing tensions across the Middle East. Last month, Iran and the U.S. signed an interim agreement aimed at halting the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global oil supply had passed before the conflict. Parties are also exploring ways to reach a permanent resolution of the conflict.
Gold increases by over 2% following Fed chair Warsh's comments and soft jobs data
Gold prices rose more ?than 2% on Wednesday after ?softer-than-expected jobs data and comments ?from Federal ?Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that suggested inflation risks have eased.
Gold spot rose 2.1%, to $4.089.49 an ounce at 0955 ET (1355 GMT), after falling to its lowest level since last November during the previous session. The yellow metal posted a quarterly loss Tuesday.
U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 1.6% to $4103.10.
Gold is seeing a nice rebound this morning. A lower-than expected ADP 'print set the scene and Fed chair Warsh’s comments about inflation coming down have pushed 'yields' lower and jolted an otherwise sleepy gold market to smartly rise," Tai Wong said.
Wong said, "Gold has carved out at least a temporary base, unless tomorrow we receive a payrolls report that is blown away."
ADP's national employment report released ahead of Thursday's non-farm payrolls reported that private employment increased by 98,000 last month, after a 122,000 increase in May. The economists surveyed by predicted that private employment would increase by 118,000.
Warsh also said that the Fed was committed to bringing down inflation to its 2% target.
Gold is often seen as a way to protect against inflation, but higher interest rates can reduce its appeal.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in about a 67% probability of an interest rate increase for September. According to an Iranian official, on a geopolitical level, the U.S. and Iran held technical discussions in Doha, Qatar, on Wednesday, as they tried to reach an agreement on the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and secure a 'lasting ceasefire.
Silver spot rose?2.8% per ounce to $60.24, while palladium rose 1.6% to $1.223.68.
After hitting its lowest level since November, platinum rose by 3.1%, to $1,599.36. Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Ashitha Shivprasad from Bengaluru, editing by Diti Pjara
(source: Reuters)