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The gold ETFs may see new outflows due to rising bets about Fed monetary tightening

The gold ETFs may see new outflows due to rising bets about Fed monetary tightening
The gold ETFs may see new outflows due to rising bets about Fed monetary tightening

Analysts warn that investors could continue to bet on rate hikes and cause a new outflow of money from exchange-traded funds backed by gold. This could push down the already falling price of gold.

On Wednesday, spot gold prices fell below a psychologically important level of $4,000 an ounce for the first since November 2025. This was due to a stronger dollar and expectations that interest rates would remain high.

Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that "ETF flows closely reflect U.S. monetary policies as shown by the buying and sale of physical backed products".

GOLD ETFS STILL OUTFLOWING IN EARLY JUNE

World Gold Council data indicates that gold-backed ETFs experienced net outflows totaling 16 metric tonnes in May. These outflows continued into the first half of this month, but funds registered their highest weekly net inflows ever last week.

Analysts at ING stated that "while recent inflows may indicate that selling pressure is easing, ETF Demand will likely remain less supportive than in 2025."

Standard Chartered said in a report that more than 200 tonnes of gold held in exchange traded funds is in a loss-making situation at the current?price level.

Gold that does not yield is usually subject to higher rates.

Gold's record-breaking rally of 2025 was largely due to the expectation that U.S. Fed Reserve would lower interest rates in 2019. This led spot prices up to a high of $5.594.82 an ounce.

The rising cost of energy in the aftermath of the Iran War has fueled inflation fears, causing central banks, including the Fed, to adopt a hawkish tone, and investors to increase their bets for rate increases, instead.

Gold prices have fallen by around 29% since their peak in January.

"Rising rates forecasts and huge AI cash-raising suggests a bullish outlook for the U.S. economy, if not the global economy," said Adrian Ash. He is head of research at BullionVault, an online marketplace.

Investors are focusing their attention elsewhere at the moment, not on gold.

ETF VS SECTOR DEMAND

Some?major bankers, while remaining?constructive about gold, have identified a softening ETF demand as an increasing headwind for the metal's future upside.

Morgan Stanley's forecast of $5,200 per ounce gold for the second half 2026 is based on evidence that lower oil costs are influencing a more dovish outlook.

Goldman Sachs has also toned down its optimism by lowering its December forecast for gold prices and its projections of ETF demand.

Analysts believe that central bank purchases, another key driver of gold's rally in the past year, will likely remain a major source of support.

Suki Cooper is an analyst with Standard Chartered. She said: "If the official sector continues to grow quickly, it can compensate for any shortfalls when it comes to ETF demand." Ashitha Shivaprasad reported from Bengaluru, and Veronica Brown edited the story.

(source: Reuters)