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Russell: India pivots towards Russian crude and coal in order to reduce the Iran war's fallout.
After the Iran conflict, when oil flows were disrupted and costs rose, India decided to buy Russian coal and crude oil to boost its energy supply. According to data compiled by Kpler, the world's third largest oil importer is expected to experience a surge in arrivals of Russian crude to a new record of 2,55 million barrels per?day (bpd). The imports of?Russia in June will be higher than the 2,13 million bpd that were imported in May. This was the third highest on record, and only behind the 2,16 million bpd for May 2023. In June, Russia's share will be slightly less than 50% of India's total crude oil imports (5.29 million bpd). This is a dramatic increase from 23% in the three-month period prior to the beginning of the war in February when Israel and the United States launched an aerial attack against Iran. India's shift to Russian crude comes after President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on buying it in an effort to boost oil supplies. The waiver ended on June 17, and the U.S. Treasury did not extend it. Theoretically, this would mean that India should cut back on its imports from Russia. However, whether they do so depends on their government's confidence and refiners' willingness to buy Middle East crude oil again. India has not stopped buying from Middle East producers. Kpler forecasts that imports from Saudi Arabia will be 349,000 bpd by June, down from the 832,000 Bpd predicted in the three-month period prior to the Iran conflict. COAL RUSSIAN India's imports of coal have also risen in the past few months. India will import 3,16 million metric tonnes of?all types of coal? from Russia in the month of June, a slight decrease from 3.27 million in may. The imports in June are 51% higher than the average for the three months before the conflict. These two months rank second and third on the list behind May's 3.76 million ton record. In June, Russia will surpass Australia as the second largest coal supplier to India. India is the world's biggest importer of coal after China. India is increasing its production of steel and is competing with Russia to buy more metallurgical coking coal. India imported 2.02 million tonnes of Russian metallurgical coke in May. This was the second highest amount ever recorded and well above the average of 1,49 million tons for the three months before the Iran War. Imports of metallurgical coke from Australia also increased in May, reaching a record 8.05 million tonnes. This was the highest since July 2013. India's steel production is expected to increase from the current 168 millions tons per year to 400,000,000 tons by 2035. An estimated 25 million tonne of capacity will be added just this year. India's thermal coal reserves are vast, but its metallurgical output is just 6%. It is also of a lower quality than the coal imported from Australia, Russia, and other countries such as the United States or Mozambique. India will likely continue to increase its imports of metallurgical coke and seek out as many suppliers as it can to reduce its reliance on Australia as the largest shipper of this type of coal in the world. Overall, Russia is likely to?remain as a major supplier of coal for India. And, while New Delhi would like to continue buying Russian crude oil - much will depend on whether or not the Trump administration tries to enforce sanctions again against Moscow. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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KCNA: Kim of North Korea says the country will assert its nuclear status? ?
KCNA, the state news agency in North Korea, reported that Kim Jong Un believes exercising 'the?country’s?position as a nuclear-armed state is only way to deal with an unpredictable and complex global security situation. Kim claimed that "unimaginable and astonishing events" were occurring due to the "gangsterlike" greed and power of hegemonic powers, which made confrontations more violent around the globe. He blamed the U.S., for the worsening of bloodshed in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. He spoke at a Central Committee Meeting of the ruling Workers' Party that ran from Saturday through Monday, KCNA reported. Kim said that the U.S., South Korea, and Japan were making the security situation in the Korean Peninsula even more dangerous, by increasing their nuclear posture. He claimed the sole purpose of this was to attack North Korea. KCNA stated that "to steadily expand and'strengthen' the nuclear forces...and to thoroughly exercise the role of a nuclear weapon state is the correct and unique method to actively and confidently deal with the unpredictable -international military and political situations becoming more complicated in many ways," KCNA didn't elaborate on the specific actions that could be taken in relation to the country's nuclear weapons. Kim?also ordered a buildup of conventional weaponry and accelerated the construction of a strategic guided missile cruiser weighing 10,000 tons, KCNA reported. Yang Moo Jin, a professor of North Korean Studies at the University of North Korean Studies, Seoul, said that the comments show Pyongyang’s refusal to denuclearize and its push for recognition as a nuke state. Yang stated that North Korea has "once again" reaffirmed the fact that denuclearisation discussions are off-limits. Yang added it would only enter into negotiations "as an equal nuclear weapons state," possibly focusing more on arms reduction than dismantlement. He said that such talks would require the acceptance of a minimal deterrent, and sanctions relief. This is fundamentally different from proposals for phased denuclearisation, like those made by South Korean president Lee Jae Myung in his letter to the U.S. Donald Trump was at the G7. Yang claimed that Pyongyang was using references to the U.S. South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group (a?body aimed to deter North Korea's threat of nuclear weapons) and Seoul's ambitions for a nuclear submarine to justify their nuclear buildup. North Korea has ignored a?slew? of sanctions imposed between 2006 and 2017, by the United Nations as well as the U.S., which prohibited Pyongyang from developing nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles that could deliver them. Its stance is alarming regional powers. The U.S.A., China, and South Korea have been trying to convince it for years that nothing will make them give up their atomic weapons. Kim said that the party meeting was also a chance to highlight the push for modernisation of coal mining and redevelopment of mining communities. Yang noted that coal remained North Korea's primary energy source, despite plans to upgrade it in order to ease chronic energy shortages. (Reporting and editing by Matthew Lewis, Ed Davies and Jack Kim in Seoul)
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Iron ore nears a four-month low due to rising supply and tepid consumer demand
Iron ore prices continued to fall on Tuesday, hitting a near -four-month-low. This was due to expectations of rising shipments by major suppliers as we approach the end of the second quarter and a seasonally weakening steel demand. The most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.74% by 0300 GMT to 737 Yuan ($108.81), after reaching its lowest since February 24, 736 yuan. By 0250 GMT the benchmark 'July Iron Ore' on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.45% to $97.8 per ton. This was its lowest price since February 25. For a fourth consecutive session, the contract has been trading well below an important psychological level of $100. The miners will be increasing their shipments to meet the?guidance target this month. Analysts said that this coincides with a seasonally weakening of demand. This could lead to a 'pile-up' in portside inventories, which will put pressure on the price of steelmaking ingredients. Analysts at broker Maike Futures also said that the macroeconomic data was downbeat, especially retail sales which dropped for the first three-year period. This raised expectations about a possible decline in steel consumption. Ore prices have also been impacted by the fall in cost support as a result of the progress made in the peace talks between the United States & Iran. Iron ore prices have remained stable despite a lacklustre demand, despite rising?freight costs and input costs triggered by energy price spikes caused by the Middle East conflict. On gloomy demand forecasts, coking coal, and other steelmaking components, fell by 0.98%?and 3.24% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been largely weakened. Rebar fell 0.42%, while hot-rolled coils dropped 0.45%, and wire rod fell 0.3%. Stainless steel also dropped 1.26%.
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New Zealand's 'Pure gold' chases record prices
New Zealand is accelerating gold projects and courting investors as rising bullion prices revive an industry that has been in decline for a long time. The government is also testing its "100% pure" brand, while it looks for ways of boosting a weak economy. According to calculations, New Zealand's production of gold is expected to double in the mid-2030s, reaching its highest level?in atleast three decades. Two new projects have already been approved, and a third awaits a final decision. This?would? put the country on track to surpass the government's goal of increasing annual mineral exports to NZ$3bn ($1.8bn) by 2035. The government is trying to create jobs in the face of near-decade high unemployment and a weakening business climate. Miners are seeing potential. Government data show that the country issued 163 permits for mining, prospecting and exploration last year. This is up 16% compared to a year ago. Environmentalists and some parts of the agriculture sector are concerned that an increased mining footprint will damage the natural image projected by the marketing for the tourist spots and exports in the country. This year, the revival will be tested by two main factors:?the future direction of policies after a highly contested election on November 7, and if a controversial project is approved. "New Zealand's mining industry has been overlooked for a very long time," said Jake Klein, the founder of Australia's No. Evolution Mining is the No. 2 gold miner in Australia, and Endura Mining chairs Endura Mining. The Snowy River Project, which will begin production this December, is managed by Endura Mining. He added that "the mining industry loves to discover new jurisdictions" but success and consistency in government policy will be key. JOBS AND INVESTOR PUSH Shane Jones, Minister of Resources, told the government that it was committed to promoting the industry. The government had, last month, slashed the economic growth forecast for next year to just 2.3%. He said, "Our economy requires every arrow of the economic quiver to be shot with incredible accuracy." Gold is an economic bright spot. Export revenues nearly tripled to NZ$1.83billion in just three years, representing 2.3% of all goods exported compared to?0.9% in 2020. New Zealand passed a law late in 2024 to speed up approvals for major energy, mining, and infrastructure projects. Fast-track consenting allows these developments to bypass certain standard regulatory processes, and limit public consultation and legal challenge. Labour Party, the opposition party, has stated that it will fix the law to ensure environmental protections can't be overridden. OceanaGold, a Canadian company listed on the stock exchange, was approved under the fast track process. Santana Minerals awaits a decision in the streamlined system. Snowy River will add 250 jobs to the region and bring in at least NZ$350 millions annually to export revenues, according to estimates by government. Klein stated that if we find New Zealanders who are working in Australian mines and want to return home, then we will hire them. OceanaGold, New Zealand's largest gold producer, plans to invest NZ$1billion in its Waihi North Project, which will begin production in 2032. Alison Paul, Senior Vice President of OceanaGold, said that its operations are attractive to workers from Australia who want to be in the region and spend their days off "hunting, fishing, farming, or with family and kids." Michael Gordon, a Westpac senior economist, said that while mining is highly productive, the benefits will mostly go to the mine owners and not the rest of the economy. 'RAVAGE and PILLAGE CONCERNS' The debate over gold mining is most intense in Central Otago on New Zealand's South Island. Santana Minerals, an Australian listed explorer, is waiting for consent to its Bendigo -Ophir project. A decision must be made by October 29, 2026. Santana Minerals' CEO Damian Spring is a New Zealander living an hour away from the proposed mine. He emphasized the creation of high-paying jobs in the region. "Responsible Mining is not a contradiction here." He said that New Zealand was making a decision. According to estimates by the government, the proposed mine will contribute an average of NZ$360m a year to New Zealand's GDP and employ directly 351 people. Wineries, heritage groups and environmentalists are opposed to the mine. Central Otago's wine interests are worried that the open-cast mining could endanger water supplies and expose vines to airborne pollution, undermining an industry of premium wines built over many decades. Sam Neill who owns Two Paddocks Winery in Central Otago warned that if Santana's Mine is approved, other miners could follow suit. This would be catastrophic. In an email, he wrote: "#ravageandpillage." Zoe Hawkins is an organizer with Natural Capital who represents a larger group of locals that opposes Santana’s project. She said that groups only had 20 working days in which to respond under the fast-track permit system. I would like to emphasize that we have a real chance of stopping this. She said, "I think the odds are really stacked against us." (Reporting from Melanie Burton in Melbourne, and Lucy Craymer at Wellington; editing by Sonali Paul).
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Asia shares fall as markets revalue Fed expectations and oil gains
After the U.S. lifted sanctions against?Iran on Tuesday, oil prices rose and traders were concerned that the Federal Reserve might take more aggressive measures to combat inflation in the second half of the year. S&P 500 futures and MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan both fell by 0.5%. Brent crude rose 0.2% to $78.03 a barrel. The Nikkei was down 0.6%. This is a reversal of some losses. Data showed that Japan's manufacturing industry experienced robust growth in the month of June. New orders surged at their highest rate in over four years. South Korean stocks fluctuated between gains, losses, and last 2% lower. Taiwanese shares opened 0.9% higher and set a new high. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone Group Ltd. in Melbourne. The former generals in the market have lost their momentum and investors are moving into areas that are more conservative, less AI focused and offer more predictable cash flows. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% overnight and the Nasdaq composite?slid 1.3%. Megacap?technology companies such as Alphabet, SpaceX and others were primarily responsible for the declines. Oil prices fell more than 3% after U.S. vice president JD Vance announced that progress had been achieved in negotiations with Iran, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open. The yen is flat against the US dollar, at 161.55yen. This is a return to its lowest levels in over 40 years, following a volatile overnight trading session in the U.S. A source familiar with the meeting said that Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama met online late Monday night with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent, amid growing concerns over currency fluctuations. The British pound is flat at $1.3247, after Prime Minister Keir starmer announced on Monday that he would be resigning. This will pave the way for an orderly transfer to Andy Burnham. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures greenback strength against six currencies, traded at 101.04, close to its highest level since May of last year. The Federal Reserve, under the leadership Kevin Warsh, is expected to increase rates more quickly. FedWatch, the CME Group tool, shows that Fed funds futures price an implied 54% probability of at least two 25 basis-point increases before the end of the year. This compares to a 15.2% chance one week ago. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was 4.501%, down 0.2 basis points. Gold fell 0.2% to $4,180.38. Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $63,873.71 while ether dropped 0.5% to $1,724.08. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong; Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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After the oil selloff, we await progress on Strait of Hormuz flow
Tuesday, oil prices recovered after a sharp drop the previous session. This was supported by a tempered optimism about the U.S.-Iran Peace Talks. Investors awaited more clear signs of progress on restoring crude flow through the 'Strait Of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 24 cents or 0.38% to $78.15 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 33 cents or 0.46% at 0026 GMT. Prices dropped more than 3% after the United States granted Iran 60 days of sanctions relief following initial peace talks. Officials also reported that the hostilities had ceased in Lebanon as a result of the wider agreement. The development came after a weekend which appeared to have put the week-old agreement in danger, with threats by U.S. president Donald Trump that he would restart the war if Iran disrupted the shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following Tehran's declaration of the strategic waterway as closed. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that there was a "prevailing" scepticism about oil prices, which stemmed from a deep-seated distrust between Washington and Tehran. This suggests that any return to prices comparable to those of pre-war will be delayed, rather than immediate. Trump stated in a Monday post on Truth Social that Iran would agree to weapons inspections as a way to ensure "nuclear integrity." Trump told reporters that if Iran didn't follow through on their agreement or they weren't behaving properly, he would do whatever he had to. Waterer said that the market had already priced in optimism about the Strait of Hormuz and its potential reopening. However, traders are now taking more of a measured approach while they wait for concrete evidence to show the deal is going to hold and traffic will return. Ship-tracking data showed that two crude tankers carrying just under 2,000,000 barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz Monday. This was a sign of increased traffic after Sunday's lower flows due to concerns about?passage of the waterway. The Department of Energy reported on Monday that U.S. crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 331.2 million barrels, the lowest level since June 1983. This was due to the tightening of supplies following the U.S. - Iran conflict. Reporting by Pranav Mathur in Bengaluru, editing by Jacqueline Wong
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Viva Energy will run Geelong Refinery with no alkylation unit until 2027
Australia's Viva Energy said Tuesday that its alkylation?unit?at the?Geelong Refinery?will remain offline?"and?has?been isolated from refining activities. Fuel retailer Viva Energy expects that the refinery will operate without an alkylation unit until 2027 based on its current assessment of the damage caused by a fire in April. According to preliminary information provided by the company, the fire was caused by a rupture of a section of piping in the alkylation system. The fire that broke out at the largest of Australia's refineries on the 15th April disrupted fuel production as the nation faced fuel shortages because of the war in Iran. Viva stated that the 'unit's' isolation would affect the refinery’s ability to convert liquefied petrol gas (LPG), and 'that options are being assessed to either'repair' or'replace' the unit. The company said that the work to restart a key residue?catalytic-cracking unit (RCCU), as well as other units, has been completed. These and related units will be returning to service this week. The 'firm's shares fell as much as 1.9% in early trading to A$2.09, their lowest price since June 16. (Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Rashmi Aich)
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US gasoline prices fall for the sixth consecutive week
The U.S.-Iran diplomatic relationship has resulted in a reduction of gasoline prices for Americans. This is the sixth consecutive 'weekly drop, and a 15% decrease from the peak reached in May. According to GasBuddy, the?national average gasoline price fell by 14.1 cents per gallon in the past week. It was $3.85 a gallon on Sunday. Prices fell in the majority of states. GasBuddy data revealed that gasoline prices dropped by 25 cents per gallon over the last week in Colorado, 22 cents in Arizona, and 21 cents (per gallon) in Ohio. This drop could ease the pressure on 'U.S. Donald Trump and other Republicans. The Republicans are fighting to maintain a narrow majority in Congress during the midterm elections this November. They have also been criticized by consumers for high prices. StoneX analyst Alex Hodes stated that a price reduction should help to ease inflation. Hodes warned that expectations of the return of normal?energy flow through the Strait?Hormuz, off Iran, are "large assumptions" and could lead to setbacks. Supply risks persist despite the fact that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again over the weekend. Transits remain below the levels before the conflict began in late February. GasBuddy's head of petroleum analyses, Patrick De Haan, says that there is no?significant risk? of a gasoline price spike as long as certain vessels continue to pass through the strait. He added that if the U.S.-Iran relations deteriorated, this could "quickly" change. Recent price drops could be reversed by tighter supplies due to refinery outages, and the approaching Atlantic hurricane season. TotalEnergies shut down the refinery, which produces 238,000 barrels per day, in Port 'Arthur, Texas last week after a lightning strike knocked power out. The 'full restart' is expected to be completed within seven days. On Sunday, a fire broke out at Marathon Petroleum's 631,000-barrel-per-day Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas City, Texas. Reporting by Nicole Jao, New York; editing by Cynthia Osterman
Gold drops as dollar remains firm amid Fed rate hike expectations
The gold price fell on Tuesday as a result of the 'firmer U.S. Dollar' and expectations that Federal Reserve interest rates will be raised this year. Investors also assessed U.S. - Iran peace talks.
As of 0228 GMT the spot gold price was down 0.7%, at $4,162.60 an ounce. It had fallen nearly 1% in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell by 0.5% to $4180.50.
Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that although gold had been helped by lower oil prices, it was not able to benefit from the U.S. Dollar, which continued to rise on expectations of Fed rate hikes.
Gold became less affordable to buyers who hold other currencies as the dollar held steady near its one-year high. Oil prices also recovered after a sharp drop on Monday.
The rise in oil prices fuels inflation fears and increases expectations for higher interest rates. Gold is usually seen as a hedge against inflation but loses its appeal when interest rates are high.
After the first round of talks in a new peace agreement, the United States lifted sanctions against Iran for 60-days starting Monday. Meanwhile, officials in Lebanon reported that fighting has ceased in the country.
JD 'Vance, the U.S. vice president, said that talks with Iranian officials had been a success in laying a solid foundation for a peace agreement. Iran however denied having begun discussions about its nuclear program.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the labor market is'stable' and that he is concentrating on whether the too-high level of inflation will remain that way, or if they will decline as high tariffs wear off and the Middle East conflict resolves.
CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders now see 88% of the chance for a rate increase in December. This is up from 61% prior to the Fed meeting held last week.
Investors are watching U.S. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Spending?data is due this week for more monetary policy clues.
Silver spot fell by 1.8%, to $64.02 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.6%, to $1.651.79 and palladium declined 0.7%, to $1.256.27. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
(source: Reuters)