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Vice PM: Russia lowers its 2026 economic growth projection to 0.4%, down from 1.3%
* The GDP growth forecast for 2020 has been reduced to 0.4%. Growth will reach 2.4% by 2029 * Oil price for budget calculations kept ?at $59 per barrel despite global price spikes * Deputy PM Novak stresses that cyclical correction is necessary, and says the slowdown follows robust growth. By Darya Korsunskaya In an interview with Vedomosti on May 12, Alexander Novak, deputy prime minister of Russia, said that despite the rise in oil prices worldwide due to the Middle East war, Russia's economic growth projections for 2026 and the next three years have been cut. Novak stated that New Economy Ministry projections had lowered the gross domestic product growth from 1.3% to 0.4% by 2026 and from 2.8% to 1.4% by 2027. Growth is expected to reach 2,4% in 2029. Novak said that the economy was likely to slow down after the robust growth of 2023-24. This, according to many analysts, was fueled by military expenditures in order meet the demands of the Ukraine war. "Economic dynamics is cyclical. There is always a correction after a period of high-growth, which can be accompanied by structural changes. Novak stated that this is a "normal stage" for the economy, and stressed that it is evolving in a climate of "unprecedented sanctions pressure." After tax increases at the beginning of the year, as well as deep discounts on Russian crude oil due to Western sanctions, Russia's $3 trillion dollar economy contracted by 0.3% during the first quarter. This was its first quarterly decrease since early 2023. Novak, in a surprising move, said that the ministry had projected the oil price to be $59 per barrel by 2026. The projected oil price is equal to the "cut-off price",?which determines how much of the budget oil revenue will go to the National Wealth Fund fiscal reserve. Oil prices are expected to remain at $50 per barrel over the next three-year period, despite many analysts predicting that Russia would be one of the biggest beneficiaries from a rise in oil prices following the 'U.S. Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran, and a blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. "It's important to maintain a conservative and pragmatic policy." The crisis creates the conditions for higher export revenues, both from oil and natural gas as well as other goods. Novak said Vedomosti that this effect was not long-lasting. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, asked his government last year to make sure that growth would resume in 2026. He rebuked senior officials for slowing the?growth last?month and told them they needed to find new ways to support the economy. Novak stated that the government was working hard to restore economic growth to a long-term sustainable trajectory. The goal is to achieve national development goals and to match or exceed global average rates. (Reporting and writing by Darya Kosunskaya, Editing by Nia William and Stephen Coates; Reporting by Gleb Brynski)
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Oil rallies after US-Iran deadlock; stocks rise ahead of US China meeting
The dollar grew on Monday as investors awaited a possible meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping. Oil prices rose after Trump described the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as "on life support" and dismissed Tehran's response following a U.S.-sponsored peace proposal. His comments stoked fears that the 10-week conflict would continue, paralyzing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's response focused on ending war on all fronts. Tehran demanded compensation, stressed its sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz and called on U.S. officials to end their naval blockade and?guarantee that no more attacks will occur, lift sanctions, and remove the ban on Iranian oil exports. Scott Wren is a senior global market analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institut. He said investors are cautiously optimistic about some progress towards peace. Wren said that the issue is all about opening up the strait. There's optimism that China can have an influence on the strait problem. Wall Street saw the S&P500 rise 13.91 points or 0.19% to 7,412.84, and the Nasdaq Composite gain 27.05 points or 0.10% to?26.274.13, both closing at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 95.31 points or 0.19% to 49,704.47. This is still short of the record-breaking close on February 10. MSCI's global index of stocks rose by 2.38 points or 0.22% to 1,108.01. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed earlier up by 0.11%. Dollars fell from their session highs, after Trump's rejection of Iran's reaction kept fears about a prolonged war alive. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen and the euro) fell by 0.05%, to 97.96. Meanwhile, the euro was down 0.06%, at $1.1777. The dollar gained 0.37% against the Japanese yen to reach 157.23. The British Pound fell 0.16%, to $1.361. Keir starmer, the British Prime Minister tried to quell a revolt within his ruling Labour Party after a mauling at last week's elections. Oil prices in energy markets rose nearly 3% after Trump made comments that fueled supply fears. The Strait of Hormuz was largely closed and there is no end to the war. U.S. crude oil settled at $98.07 per barrel, up $2.65 or 2.78%. Brent crude rose to $104,21 per barrel, up by 2.88% or $2.92 on the day. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds increased as oil prices rose, causing inflation fears. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 4.6 basis points from late Friday to 4.41%. The 30-year bond rate rose 3.6 basis to 4.9835%. The Federal Reserve's 2-year note yield rose by 5.9 basis points, to 3.952%. Prices of gold reversed their course and rose in volatile trading Monday as investors awaited key U.S. data on inflation due later this week, while also assessing developments in U.S. diplomacy with Iran. Spot gold increased by 0.44%, to $4735.39 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.15% to an ounce of $4,727.70. (Reporting and editing by Sinead carew, Amanda Cooper; Gareth Jones, Mark Potter, Nia William, David Gregorio, Stephen Coates)
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Trump signs orders to increase beef imports and grow herds in order to reduce record prices
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, is expected to sign an executive order on Monday to increase beef imports to the U.S. White House officials said that they would support the renewal of U.S. cattle herds in an effort to reduce beef prices. The official didn't provide any details about the two executive orders. They come at a moment when the U.S. herd is at its lowest point in 75 years, and beef prices are continuing to rise. The Wall Street Journal had reported earlier that Trump would suspend tariff-rate limits on beef. This would allow for more meat to be imported into the U.S. with lower tariffs. The 'newspaper' reported that Trump would instruct the Small Business Administration (SBA) to increase lending to ranchers, and reduce protections for gray and Mexican wolves - which prey on livestock. After Trump's meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva, U.S. cattle prices were impacted by expectations of increased beef imports. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's June live cattle futures recovered from early losses and ended slightly higher on Monday. August feeder cattle fell 0.5%. While prices of eggs, milk and other grocery staples are down since Trump took office in January 2025 the price of beef continues to rise, a sign that inflation is still a problem for American consumers, as summer grilling season begins. Trump ordered in October last year a 'quadrupling' of beef imports to Argentina and removed his 40% punitive duty on Brazilian coffee and beef a month after. According to the Consumer Price Index of the Labor Department, beef prices were up 12.1% in April. Beef prices are more than 16 percent higher than they were when Trump took office in January 2025. HAMBURGER HELPER U.S. cattle numbers have dropped to their lowest level in 75 years after ranchers reduced their herds due to a drought that destroyed grazing land and increased feeding costs. High cattle prices have encouraged ranchers not to keep their livestock for breeding, but to sell them to be slaughtered. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that the country will be importing a record 5,8 billion pounds of meat this year. This is up about 6% compared to 2025, and 25% compared to 2024. David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University, explained that most imports are lean trimmings of beef which are then mixed with U.S. beef supplies to make ground beef. He said that more imports would help hamburger restaurants cut their costs. However, he didn't expect consumer prices to drop significantly. "We already imported a record-breaking amount. What is the additional amount to what we already import? Anderson said. "I find it hard to believe that this will have a major impact on prices." It's hard to imagine this being a massive influx of supplies. Bill Bullard of the cattle producers' group R-CALF USA said that increased imports could also?discourage American ranchers from increasing their herds. He said that smaller cattle feeders may 'even leave the industry' if prices fall far enough. Bullard stated that consumers may not benefit as ranchers are under pressure. "We have had record beef imports in the last three years, and yet consumers are still paying record prices," he said. David Lawder, Tom Polansek and David Lawder edited the article. Mark Porter and David Gregorio reported.
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Turkey to receive first shipment of US emergency oil
Ship tracking data revealed that a cargo of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was heading to Turkey. This is the first shipment of U.S. emergency reserve oil destined for the Mediterranean country. The U.S. has begun releasing 172 millions barrels of oil from the SPR to help combat the rising crude prices. This is because the war in Iran?has disrupted global supply, and the Strait of Hormuz?remains largely closed. The U.S. is releasing 172 million barrels from the SPR to combat spiking crude prices, as the war in Iran?has upended global supplies with the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed. As supplies in Europe and Asia tighten, exports from the U.S. have reached record highs. The Greek-flagged North Star aframax loaded approximately 680,000 barrels from the Bryan Mound Strategic Petroleum Reserve site near Seaway in Texas City in early April. It is expected to arrive at Aliaga in Turkey in mid-May according to Kpler, citing an invoice. According to ship tracking and trader, the Hong Kong-flagged DHT Antelope has loaded about 1.1m barrels of Bryan Mound Sour crude oil offshore Galveston via ship-to ship transfer in late April. It is also due to unload at the end of the month in Turkey. Kpler data revealed that the ship also carried another parcel of U.S. Crude. According to data from ship tracking, U.S. SPR cargoes are already on their way to Italy and The Netherlands. Reporting by Georgina Mcartney in Houston and Arathy Smaskehar; editing by Liz Hampton
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McEwen Copper hires financial firm to manage $2.4 billion loan for Argentina copper projects
Michael Meding is the vice president and general manager of McEwen Copper. Michael Meding is McEwen Copper’s vice president and manager general. He said that the loan was part of the $4 billion total financing package for the McEwen Copper project. He refused to identify the lender, but said that an announcement will be made shortly. In a recent interview, the executive stated that he had already signed a?agreement? with a company that handled the entire debt package with international export agencies. The project is located in the Andean Province of San Juan. Los Azules is located 3,500 meters above sea level and is one of 10 largest undeveloped copper projects in the world. It is aiming to be the first Argentine mine to produce copper cathodes. Meding stated that the company is aiming for a split of 40-60 between equity and debt, which would mean $1.6 billion will be funded by equity. The executive told reporters on Saturday that, in addition to the Rio Tinto he was in contact with, he also had discussions with McEwen Mining, its parent company, as well as "several major industrial groups in North America, Europe, and Asia" in order to secure $1.6 billion in financing. Rio Tinto owns a 17.2% stake through Nuton LLC. The company has invested over $100 million in Los Azules. According to McEwen Copper's feasibility study, this technology would extend Los Azules'?life by 33 years. Los Azules intends to start?operations in 2029 or 2030. The average production for the first five years will be approximately 204.800 metric tons per year of copper cathodes. Meding stated that the company was also steadily progressing towards an initial public offering of?around 300 million dollars by the end of this year. He said that "October, December, or November would be good times to do this, especially given the current copper prices and outlook."
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Trump calls the Iranian ceasefire a 'life-support' measure after Tehran's response
Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said that on Monday?the ceasefire agreement with Iran is "on life support" after he dismissed?Tehran?s response to a U.S. proposal for peace as "stupid." Trump's rejection of Iran’s response on Sunday has fuelled concerns that the 10-week conflict will continue and continue to paralyze?the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called the ceasefire "the weakest" after reading the garbage that Iran sent us. He didn't finish reading the document. "It is on life support." Iran responded on Sunday to Washington's proposal to reopen negotiations by focusing on the end of war on all fronts. This includes Lebanon, where U.S.-allied Israel fights Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorists. Tehran demanded also 'compensation for damage caused by war,' emphasized its sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz and called on the United States to end their naval 'blockade, guarantee no more attacks, lift sanctions, and remove an oil sales ban. Trump claimed on Monday that Iran is willing to hand over "the nuclear dust" to the United States, referring to the uranium enriched stockpile of?Iran. He also said only China and the U.S. are capable of retrieving it.
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The dollar is stable and stocks are up ahead of the US-China summit, but Iran talks have reached a deadlock.
The dollar was barely changed as investors waited for a meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump & Chinese President Xi Jinping. Oil prices rose as the U.S.-Iran negotiations appeared to stall. Trump rejected Iran's response on Sunday to the U.S. proposal to hold peace talks in order to end the Middle East war, calling Tehran's requests "totally unacceptable." Iranian media reported the plan emphasized the need to end the war on all sides and lift sanctions against Tehran. It also called for reparations and the recognition of Iran's control of Strait of Hormuz as a vital energy channel. Scott Wren, Senior Global Market Strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute said that the Middle East was expected to be a major topic of discussion in the first face-toface meeting between Trump and Xi in over six months. Investors were anxiously awaiting the meeting. Wren said, "It is all about the Strait and when it will open." There's optimism that China can have an influence on the strait problem. Wall Street was open at 10:58 am. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22.37, or 0.5%, to 49.632.29; the S&P 500 gained 19.63, or 0.2%, to 7,418.56; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 45.81, or 0.1%, to '26,293.54. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 3.23 points or 0.29% to 1,108.86. The STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.05%. The dollar has fallen from its previous highs, after Trump's rejection of Iran's response remained concerns about a prolonged war. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.11%, falling to 97.90. At $1.178, the euro was down 0.04%. The dollar gained 0.22% against the Japanese yen to reach 156.99. The pound rose 0.03%, to $1.3636, as British Prime Minister Keir starmer tried to quell the rebellion in his Labour Party following last week's local election results. Oil prices increased on energy markets due to supply concerns as the Strait of Hormuz was largely closed. U.S. crude climbed 2.35%, to $97.66 per barrel. Brent rose to $103.80 per barrel. This is a 2.47% increase on the day. U.S. Treasury Yields edged higher on concerns over high inflation and rising oil prices. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 3 basis points from late Friday to 4,394%. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond yield rose 2.3 basis to 4.9699%. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve, increased 3.1 basis points, to 3.924%. Investors weighed developments in U.S. diplomacy with Iran?and awaited important U.S. data on inflation due?later in the week. Spot gold increased by 0.21%, to $4724.34 per ounce. U.S. gold futures increased 0.15% to $4.727.70 per ounce. Earlier, optimism about AI drove Chinese stocks higher by 1.6%. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI index, which is heavily influenced by chipmakers rose 4.3%. China's producer price index jumped near a four-year high. Consumer inflation also increased due to rising global energy prices. (Reporting and editing by Sinead carew, Amanda Cooper; Gareth Jones, Mark Potter, Nia Williams, Stephen Coates)
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Commodity stocks are rising as the TSX approaches its three-week high.
Canada's main stock index rose to near three-week highs ?on Monday as ?Barrick Mining jumped after stronger-than-expected ?results ?and other commodity-linked stocks climbed while investors weighed the impact of the Middle East conflict. At 10:47 am. The S&P/TSX Composite Index of the Toronto Stock Exchange was up 0.3% to 34,205.24, its highest level since April 21. As precious metals prices and oil prices increased, energy stocks, materials and gold gained. The President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's response to the U.S. Peace Proposal fueled fears that the conflict, which has been going on for 10 weeks, would continue and paralyze shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This could push up oil prices. Michael Dehal, Senior Portfolio Manager, Dehal Investment Partners, Raymond James, said: "The longer the strikes continue without a peace agreement,?the more damaging it is for equities because of?inflationary pressures." The benchmark index traded just below its peak of March 2, as geopolitical uncertainties and fears about an inflation spike tempered gains. The Bank of Canada did not change its key interest rates last month, but Governor Tiff MacKlem stated that if oil prices continued to rise and inflation began to increase, the Bank of Canada might have to respond by raising successive rate. According to LSEG's survey, traders expect at least a 25 basis -point increase in interest rates by the end 2026. They also see a 38% chance of a second rate rise this year. Barrick Mining jumped a whopping 7.2% and was one of the top gainers on the TSX after it beat expectations for its first-quarter profits, helped by'record gold prices. Cronos rose 7.2% after the cannabis producer’s first-quarter revenue surged by 40%. Sales in Israel and other nations, where there are no excise tax, were a major factor. (Reporting by Tharuniyaa Lakshmi in Bengaluru; Editing by Joyjeet Das)
TSX closes at a three-week high as commodity stocks gain.
Canada's main index of stocks closed in the black on Monday and reached its highest level in nearly three weeks, supported by gains in oil and metal stocks. Investors weighed the effects of the Middle East conflict.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index of the Toronto Stock Exchange closed up 0.18% to 34,138.88. This was its highest closing since April 21. Energy stocks rose?1.7% and materials rose over 3% as oil and precious metal prices rose. The rapid rejection by President Donald Trump of Iran's response to the U.S. Peace proposal has fueled fears that the 10-week conflict will continue and keep shipping through the Strait of Hormuz halted, driving up oil prices.
Angelo Kourkafas is a senior global investment strategy at Edward Jones. He said that the headlines are about a stalemate between Iran and its allies, which is driving up crude oil prices.
For now, AI is the story driving gains in the U.S. He said that in Canada, oil prices and the material sector are likely to continue. The Bank of Canada left its key interest rates unchanged last month, but Governor 'Tiff Macklem stated that if oil prices continued to rise and inflation began to increase, the Bank of Canada might be forced to respond by raising rates in a series.
"It's because we are seeing a?accelerating growth in earnings,?which allows investors to focus on the corporate fundamentals of the TSX," he said. Barrick Mining jumped 9%, making it one of the 'top gainers' on the TSX after the miner exceeded expectations for its first-quarter profits. This was helped by a record?gold price. Cronos rose 8% following the cannabis producer's first quarter net revenue which soared by?40%. Sales in Israel and countries without excise tax helped to boost this. (Reporting from Tharuniyaa in Bengaluru, and Nivedita in Toronto; editing by Joyjeet Das & Deepa Babington).
(source: Reuters)