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Putin's fifth wartime "Russian Davos" is short on ideas for growth
The Russian President Vladimir Putin will host his fifth conference on wartime economics in St. Petersburg. His government is struggling to find a growth strategy, as the?Ukrainian attacks on the economy are hitting the economy. Businesses also see no end to this war. The $3 trillion economy of Russia, which is heavily dependent on commodities, shrank to 0.2% growth in the first quarter 2026 from 4.9% in 2024. Officials blamed high interest rates, Western sanctions and a strong ruble. The growth rate is expected to be a modest 0.4% in 2018. The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, fertiliser factories and ports deep inside Russia have affected a large part of the economy. They have affected one quarter of the refining capacity and created the risk of fuel shortages during the driving season. Putin, who wants to see the economy grow again, has told his officials that they must find a way to restart growth. Businesses believe that ending the war in Ukraine is the best way to do this. The enthusiasm and cheers on the Russian stock exchange following each positive piece of news about U.S.-mediated peace talks with Ukraine, indicate their true answer, according to a senior corporate official who asked for anonymity. The Kremlin announced that peace talks which began with much pomp and circumstance in February of last year were put on hold for the time being, as the United States is preoccupied with the war in the Middle East. The Kremlin said that peace talks which began with great pomp in February last year are on hold?for now', because the United States is preoccupied by the war in the Middle East. LOST OPPORTUNITY Kirill Dmitriev has been promoting the potential economic benefits that a peace agreement could bring. He is the Russian point person in contact with Donald Trump's administration. A senior Russian banker who declined to be named said that Putin lost "a good chance" to make a deal last year and now the economy shows signs of instability. The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum runs from 3 to 6 June. Delegates will likely discuss strategies such as the redistribution labour into faster-growing industries and the promotion AI-powered digital platforms for e-commerce, banking and other sectors. Officials hope to see a rise in consumer demand. Oleg Vyugin is a former deputy chair of the central banking. He said that growth would be difficult to achieve with the interest rate at double digits and tax increases for the war. He said that the government had nothing to offer in terms of a recovery of economic growth. The factors that fueled Russian growth during the majority of Putin's rule -- foreign investment, energy revenue, government spending, falling rates, and more recently import substitution, digitization, and war-related demands -- are no longer present, or their potential has been exhausted. Anton Tabakh, chief economist at Expert RA Ratings agency, said: "The question to ask is what will drive the growth if consumers do not plan on increasing their spending and investments have declined for 'the past two years. Fiscal policy is also non-stimulative." EXTERNAL PUSH The government has enjoyed a temporary respite due to a surge in the price of oil, Russia's primary?export product, as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and the near-closure of Strait of Hormuz. However, this is only expected to last a short time. Contrary to popular predictions, the Russian economy has remained resilient to sanctions throughout the conflict. This is in part due to its military production. In an interview, a Siberian parliament member made a rare criticism of the establishment. He said that the economy would not be able to survive the long-term continuation of "special military operations", as Russia calls the war in Ukraine. What are the development, capital expenditures, and investments that we can discuss? "Neither shells nor tanks have consumer value. The economy produces them, but they can't be consumed by the people," said Renat Suleimenov of the Communist Party, a Duma member. Russia, a country with a population of just 140 million, a small domestic equity market, and little foreign investment, is not able to rely on its own internal drivers for growth, as India and China can. It is therefore doomed to stagnation, until there is an external catalyst such as the lifting of sanctions. The economy needs external support. Mikhail Matovnikov is the head of Sberbank’s financial analysis center. (Reporting and editing by Gleb Brianski)
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Indian steelmakers are struggling with the resurgence in cheap Chinese imports
China's finished exports of steel to 'India' more than doubled to their highest level in at least two years in April, causing concern amongst the steel makers in India that they would be overwhelmed by low-cost products despite tariffs. According to data provided by the Indian government, China exported around 232,000 metric tonnes of finished steel during April. It was the largest exporter of this steel into the South Asian country. This is despite the fact that?India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in terms of production, had imposed import tariffs on certain grades from December for a three-year period, and this had managed to reduce imports from China. The data revealed that the majority of steel finished products imported into India were hot-rolled coils. Stainless steel products are exempt from import duties on hot-rolled coils. Tarun Khulbe is the chief executive of Jindal Stainless and he told? that low-priced steel?from China poses a problem for the local industry. He said that some of the?imports are being routed via countries like Vietnam, which is a part ASEAN and with whom India has a Free Trade Agreement. The data revealed that Vietnam was one of the top five steel exporters to India, with shipments increasing by more than four-fold to 59,000 tonnes. Khulbe stated that "such imports distort fair market practices and impact investments in the industry, affecting India's long-term competitiveness for manufacturing." A large private steel firm executive said that buyers are attracted by Chinese steel, which is anywhere between $11 to $37 cheaper per ton of hot rolled steel than local prices. A senior executive of another large steel company said that some of the hot-rolled rolls that came into India were distressed "cargo" that couldn't?reach Middle East due to the Iran War. According to commodities consultancy BigMint, imports from China will continue to rise in May. India became a net importer of goods in April, a stark contrast to previous months where shipments were slowed by tariffs. In 2025/26 China's exports of steel to India fell 39.4% from the previous year to 1.5 million tonnes, and India became a net exporter. Executives said that the demand for steel in India is increasing from the infrastructure and automotive sectors, as India's economy expands. In April, the consumption of finished steel reached 13 million tonnes, an increase of 8.2% on the previous year. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; reporting by NehaArora)
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Indian steelmakers are struggling with the resurgence in cheap Chinese imports
China's steel exports to India have more than doubled to the highest level in at least two years. This has caused concern among India's steelmakers who fear that they will be overwhelmed by low-cost products despite tariffs. According to data provided by the Indian government, China exported around 232,000 tons of steel finished in April. It was the largest exporter of this steel into the South Asian country. India, the second largest crude steel producer in the world, had imposed import tariffs on certain grades of steel for a three-year period that had managed?to slow imports from China. The data showed that the majority of steel finished products imported into India by China are hot-rolled coils followed by stainless steel. Stainless steel products are exempt from import duties on hot-rolled coils. Tarun Khulbe is the chief executive of Jindal Stainless and he said that low-priced steel imported from China was a problem for the domestic industry. He said that some of the imports are being routed through countries like Vietnam, which is part of ASEAN and with whom India has a Free Trade Agreement. The data revealed that Vietnam was one of the top five steel exporters to India, with shipments increasing by more than four-fold to 59,000 tonnes. Khulbe stated that "such imports distort fair market practices and impact investments in the industry, affecting India's long-term competitiveness manufacturing." An executive from a large, private steel company said that buyers are enticed by Chinese steel which is anywhere between $11 to $37 cheaper per ton than local prices. A senior executive of another large steel company said that some of the hot-rolled rolls that arrived in India were distressed cargo, which could not reach the Middle East due to the Iran War. According to commodities consultancy BigMint, imports from China will continue to increase in May. India became a net importer of goods in April. This is a stark contrast to previous months, when shipments were slowed by tariffs. In 2025/26 China's exports of steel to India dropped 39.4% from the previous year,?to 1.5 millions tons. India was also a net importer. Executives said that the demand for steel in India is increasing from the infrastructure and automotive industries as India's economy expands. In April, the consumption of finished steel reached 13 million tonnes, an increase of 8.2% compared to last year. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman; reporting by Neha arora)
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Choose France Summit: France secured EUR93 billion of investment pledges
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said on Monday that companies?have committed a 'total of EUR93 bn ($108 bn)?worth investments in France during this year's Choose France Summit. The projects will cover 71 initiatives and are expected to create over 15,600 jobs. SoftBank has pledged a total of?45 billion euro for three data centers?with 3.1 Gigawatts in the Hauts de France region?by the year 2031. The investment could rise to 75 billion Euros, according to Macron. Macron is trying to use 'France's fleet 57 nuclear reactors as leverage to promote the country as an artificial intelligence hub and data centre, both of which require large amounts of energy - preferably clean - to operate their computing power. He summarized the strategy with "plug baby plug". SoftBank CEO Masayoshi son said, "The AI data centre investment is EUR75billion, but if you include 'chips and systems', it will be near $750billion." He added that SoftBank wouldn't fund the full amount but would use project finance and work with "hyperscale customers."
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Norway's Equinor suggests Jarle Roth for new board chair
Jarle Roth, a member of the board at Equinor's Norwegian oil group, was voted by its nomination committee as the?new chairman after Jon Erik Reinhardsen announced his decision to step down. Reinhardsen has been the chairman of the board since nearly a decade. He has overseen a push to expand into low-carbon and renewable businesses. This expansion has slowed down in recent years due to rising costs, concerns about energy security and U.S. headwinds. Equinor issued a statement in which it said that Jon Erik Reinhardsen - who has been the chair of the Board since 2017 - would like to resign. Roth, 66 years old, is an independent 'advisor' who joined Equinor in December 2025. He was previously CEO of Norwegian firms Eksportkreditt Norge and Arendals Fossekompani. Equinor stated that his experience includes industrial investment management and restructuring, as well as export financing, energy transition, and global shipping services. In an email, a spokesperson stated that Roth's experience as a former CEO and board member of different companies will be beneficial to Equinor should he be elected on the 8th of June. The vote is being held ahead of a presentation to investors in New York on 16 June, when the management will be expected to present its updated strategy. Equinor, citing high costs and undeveloped markets, has scaled down its renewable ambitions over the last year. It scrapped a 2030 investment goal, cut planned installed capacity, and lowered?its goals for net carbon intensity. Reinhardsen urged for greater cooperation with Denmark's Orsted - the world's leading offshore wind developer - in which Equinor had taken a 10% stake by the end of 2024. Equinor also subscribed to the new share issue last year. The committee also proposed that Anne Drinkwater be re-elected as deputy chair along with board members Finn Bjorn Ruyter and Haakon Brüun-Hanssen. Mikael Karsson, Fernanda Lpes Larsen, and Dawn Summers. Essi Adomaitis and Nerijus Lehto, Anna Ringstrom, and Alexander Smith edited the report.
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Oil and stocks rise as AI takes over, easing fears about Iran.
Global stocks reached record highs Monday, as AI continued to drive the demand. This was offset by news of new attacks in the Gulf which lowered optimism for a reopening of Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices also rose. The U.S. president Donald Trump has been quiet about the progress of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, until he posted that everyone should just "sit back and relax". On Saturday, Defense secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the U.S. would be ready to resume attacks against Iran if an agreement could not come about. News broke on Monday that U.S. troops had struck Iranian targets at the weekend. Tehran had responded, and Kuwaiti defences intercepted missiles and drones. Brent crude futures rose by nearly 3% to $94 per barrel. This prompted a sale of government bonds that were hurt by expectations that interest rates would rise in order to combat inflation spikes. The?MSCI All-World Index was up 0.13%, trading at or near record highs as markets from Tokyo and Seoul traded at all-time highs. This was backed by the demand for AI-related products. The market believes that Iran/U.S. negotiations are still ongoing, despite the attacks on both sides. "A deal will be reached to end the Middle East war and reopen the 'Strait of Hormuz,'" XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks stated. Investors should be watching how this is played out, as any delay could affect the market sentiment. Data showing South Korea’s exports increased at their fastest annual rate in over four decades in the month of May, hitting a record $87.75 Billion. Nvidia's Jensen Huang will kick off the Computex show in Taiwan with a speech on AI on Monday. He is expected to elaborate on the latest product efforts of his company as well as Taiwan's role as a leader in the industry. PAYROLLS Ahead European stocks fell marginally for the day as gains in energy shares were offset by losses among airlines and defence shares. S&P futures rose 0.3% while Nasdaq Futures climbed 0.5%, after both benchmarks reached records last week. Oil inflation continued to be a drag on bond markets. U.S. 10 year yields increased?1 basis points to 4.46%. Yields on German 10-year debt rose by 4.2 bps to 2.98%. This week, a number of Fed members will be speaking. Also on Friday are the ISM manufacturing survey and the May payroll report. The market forecasts a steady increase of 85,000 jobs, which will keep the unemployment rate at 4,3%. Any stronger would likely reduce the chances of an increase. Chris Weston, Pepperstone's chief market strategist, said that the Federal Reserve should continue to present speakers who will promote a two-way approach in which officials are open to rate increases and rate reductions depending on new data. Expectations may grow that the Fed will 'gradually move away from its easing policy bias and towards a more neutral policy stance over the coming months. The markets indicate a 50-50 chance that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates by the end of the year, which has allowed the dollar to remain strong against a variety of currencies, notably the Japanese yen. The dollar is up 0.12% against yen, at 159.46. This is just below the 160-mark that many think could spark another round of government intervention to boost the Japanese yen.
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As markets wait for Trump's decision on Iran, gold falls on stronger dollar and oil
As investors waited for Donald Trump's announcement on the proposed agreement to extend the ceasefire, gold prices dropped on Monday. As of 0718 GMT spot gold was down by 0.7%, at $4,505.87 an ounce. This is after it hit a two-week peak in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 1.2% to $4,535.90. Dollar rose, making greenback bullion prices more expensive for holders other currencies. Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst, said that the rise in oil prices, coupled with the still-elusive U.S. Iran deal, was enough to put gold on the back foot at the beginning of the week. Trump announced on Friday that he will soon make a decision on extending?the ceasefire agreement with Iran. However, the two countries appear to still be at odds on important?issues which have been a central part of the conflict. U.S. officials said they had struck Iranian military targets over the weekend. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by claiming that it had attacked a U.S.-based base. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, ordered his troops to advance further into Lebanon, in order to fight the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants, despite the ceasefire that was announced over six weeks ago. The oil prices increased by more than 3% Monday, fueling concerns about inflation and rate hikes. Gold is seen traditionally as a hedge against inflation but loses its appeal when interest rates are high. Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair of Supervision at the Federal Reserve, said that the impact of the Middle East war on the economy could be measured but still lead to persistent inflation, which might require tighter monetary policy. Waterer stated that "gold could reach $5,500 by the end of 2026 if favorable circumstances are met, including lower oil prices and a dollar depreciation, which would be backed up by central bank purchases and its role as an inflation and geopolitical hedge." Silver rose 0.7% per ounce to $75.80, platinum rose 1% to $1.935.65, while palladium rose by 0.5% to 1,360.93. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Rashmi aich, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Chinese coking coal reaches 19-month supply high
Chinese coking coal prices rose on Monday to a 19-month-high, after a provincial-level meeting about mine safety in coal-rich Shanxi heightened supply concerns caused by production halts following a fatal accident last month. According to an official WeChat post on Sunday, Shanxi, in northern China, held a meeting Saturday regarding a special campaign to correct safety risks and hidden hazards in coal mines. Officials in China's largest coal-producing hub have pledged a "zero tolerance approach" for identifying and punishing illegal acts, such as hidden underground tunnels, safety fraud, and illegal mining outside the permitted areas and layers. A fatal mine accident in Shanxi’s Liushenyu Mine killed at least 80 people. This triggered a series of mine safety inspections which prompted several mines suspending production. Analysts at Xinhu Futures wrote in a report that "the severity and scope?" of the accident were particularly extensive. This leaves limited room for a quick production resumption on the short term." The Dalian Commodity Exchange's (DCE) most traded coking coal contract closed the daytime trading up 7.16 percent to 1,377 Yuan ($203.51 per metric ton). The contract reached its highest level in 2024, at 1,387.5 Yuan, earlier in the day. The DCE coke contract that was most active jumped by 4.84%, to 1,993 Yuan per ton. It had previously reached its highest level since November 8, 2024 (2,026.5 Yuan). Prices of iron ore fell amid expectations that there would be a glut in supply due to increased shipments and seasonal slow demand. The most active DCE contract fell 0.19% to 781 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the benchmark July Iron Ore on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.61% to $104.6 a ton at 0757. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks mostly rose. Rebar gained 0.63%; hot-rolled coil gained 0.65%; wire rod rose 1.1%, while stainless steel dropped 0.37%. $1 = 6.7663 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Beijing and Lewis Jackson)
Gold drops as inflation fears fuelled by renewed Middle East tensions
As renewed U.S. - Iran tensions increased, the dollar and oil price rose. This fueled fears of inflation as well as a longer-term outlook for higher interest rates.
Gold spot was down by 0.8% to $4,498.89 an ounce as of 0909 GMT. It had hit a record high two weeks earlier. The yellow metal fell 0.9% in the month of May, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline.
U.S. gold futures for August delivery dropped 1.4% to $4,529.90.
Dollars are now more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The U.S. claimed it had struck Iranian military bases over the weekend, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday that they had responded by targeting a U.S.-based base. This is the latest exchange of attack amid negotiations to end the three-month old war.
Ricardo Evangelista, an ActivTrades Analyst, said that the optimism around negotiations between the U.S. & Iran aimed a?at ending?the standoff in 'the Strait of Hormuz' faded over weekend. As a result of this, energy prices rose, reinforcing Federal Reserve expectations and reviving inflation fears.
Brent crude oil has increased by more than 3% since the last strikes. Oil prices that are higher can increase inflation and cause interest rates to remain high for longer. Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge to inflation but in an environment of high interest rates, gold loses its appeal as it becomes a non-yielding investment.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a Fed rate increase this year. There is a 40% probability of a 'quarter-point' increase in December.
This week, a number of Fed board members will be speaking. Major?data releases include the ISM manufacturing survey?and May payrolls report?on Friday.
"Traders are closely monitoring this week's important data releases, as they have the?potential to reshape the expectations about the?future direction of Fed monetary policies, influencing the demand for the U.S. Dollar and, therefore, the performance of the gold prices," Evangelista stated.
Spot silver increased 0.7%, to $75.79 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.4%, to $1.925.26, and palladium dropped 0.8%, to $1.343.55.
(source: Reuters)