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Norsk Hydro's profit forecast is beaten as the Iran war drives up aluminium prices

Norsk Hydro announced a?larger-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday as the Middle East war?leaded to tightening aluminum markets and pushed?up the prices of the metal. The 'Iran - war is showing how dependent Western Aluminium buyers are on Gulf Supply, with disrupted Exports and increasing Premiums.

Hydro reported that higher metal prices and volume offset lower alumina prices - a chemical component used as a raw material in aluminium production. It also said that a stronger Norwegian krone had a negative impact on the power output. Hydro said that the aluminium producer's adjusted earning before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation fell about 8% in the first quarter 2026 to 8.67 billion Crowns ($930.1 millions). Analysts polled by company?expected a core profit average of 7.13 billion Crowns.

Hydro's shares opened in Oslo 2.5% higher. Analysts at J.P. Morgan noted the 'earnings beat,' but also said that weaker cash generation and higher debt, as well as a mixed outlook on?the second-quarter, took away some of the shine from these results.

The company stated that higher aluminium premiums, and increased recycling margins, should support earnings in the second quarter, while lower energy output, increased input costs, and war-related disruptions to sales are expected to be a drag.

Trond Olaf Chrissen, the finance chief, said that production will also fall below historic second-quarter levels because of low water levels in Norwegian reservoirs, and due to the lowest levels of snow in many decades.

SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS CAUSE PRICES TO INCREASE The Norwegian group has direct exposure to the Middle East conflict via?Qatalum - its joint venture in Qatar. Output cuts have reduced available metal, just as disruptions to Gulf supply forced?buyers into a scramble to find replacement units. The market is vulnerable to new disruptions because London Metal Exchange stocks are already low. This is especially true since many Western buyers can't easily switch from Gulf metal to Russian supplies. Aluminum prices rose to a four-year peak earlier this month. This is a sign that worries about supply are driving up prices across the board.

In a press release, CEO Eivind KALLEVIK said that "strong operational performance across our upstream businesses and recycling business, combined with favorable metal prices drove a solid?first quarter".

Hydro reported that the Middle East smelter closures reduced the demand for alumina and increased the global oversupply of alumina excluding China.

(source: Reuters)