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Indonesia has the fastest economic growth in three years

Official data released on Thursday showed that Indonesia's economy grew at a faster rate than expected during the fourth quarter, largely due to strong household spending and investment.

Southeast Asia's largest economy grew by 5.11% per year in 2025. This is up from 5.03% annually a year before. This was the highest rate of growth since 2022 but it is still below the 5.2% government target.

Analysts say that he is facing a number of challenges, including a slowdown in international trade because of U.S. Tariffs and geopolitical tensions as well as internal factors such as the influx of refugees.

Investor sentiment is deteriorating

In 2025, the government increased fiscal stimulus to boost demand. It has vowed to remain on course this year. The central bank reduced interest rates between September 2024 to September 2025 by 150 basis points. Analysts predict that more reductions are likely.

The growth rate in the fourth quarter was 5.39%, on an annual basis. This is the fastest pace since the third?quarter of 2022. A poll of analysts predicted 5.01%.

Amalia Adininggar, Statistics Indonesia's chief Amalia Adininggar?Widyasanti, said that a 16,23 trillion rupiah stimulus package ($965million) in the fourth quarter had helped increase household spending. Investment was also a strong growth driver.

FISCAL STIMULUS

In addition to the rice distribution, the tax exemption for tourism workers was also included in the stimulus package.

The October-to December quarter saw a 5.1% increase in household spending, which accounts for more than half the gross domestic product of Indonesia. This is the fastest growth in over two years.

In 2025, spending by households grew at a rate of 4.98%, which is the highest growth since 2019. Investments grew at a rate of 5.09%, which was the highest growth since 2018.

Krystal Tan of ANZ, an economist at the time, said that the domestic demand had rebounded by Q4 2025 due to the new fiscal policy stance after the September 2025 change in leadership within the Finance Ministry.

Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, an economist who favors growth and is pro-growth, was appointed Finance Minister in September. He replaced the fiscally conservative Sri Mulyani Idrawati.

But Sri Mulyani's

Sacked abruptly

widening budget deficit

The appointment of Prabowo’s nephew as the new governor of the central bank caused capital outflows and sent the rupiah down to a

Historic low

Last month, the dollar was down against the euro.

The government is targeting a 5.4% growth rate in 2026. This will be achieved by increasing spending on Prabowo’s flagship programs and investing through the sovereign wealth fund Danantara.

Brian Lee, an economist at?Maybank', predicted only a marginal improvement in 2026.

Lee referred to the recent drop in Jakarta's major equity index, which was triggered by fears about transparency and liquidity.

Analysts said that Prabowo’s crackdown on resources, including his takeover of Martabe Gold Mine in disaster-hit North Sumatra could also weigh on investor sentiment.

DATA VERACITY

Some economists have questioned the veracity?of GDP data by pointing out

Tax revenues in 2025 and other indicators

Flat growth

in foreign direct investment.

Rizki Siregar is an economist at the University of Indonesia.

Nailul Husa, an economist at the Center of Economic and Law Studies said that there was a discrepancy in data about high net exports for 2025 and the strong investment growth resulting from imports of machines.

There are several local think tanks

Last year, the GDP data for the third quarter was also questioned, as it didn't reflect factors like a decline in auto sales, a contraction of manufacturing activity, and reports of job losses.

(source: Reuters)