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Botswana's stock of diamonds grows as the gems price slump continues

The finance ministry said that Botswana’s diamond stockpile was nearly twice its target inventory level due to persistently low prices. This means the country is unable to increase its gem production to boost its economy in the near term. The Botswana economy was expected to shrink by 1% in 2025, following a 3% decline the previous year. This is largely because of the fall in diamond prices due to lab-grown gemstones and weak demand worldwide. Last year, the price drop forced Debswana - Botswana’s joint venture with De Beers, which accounts for 90% percent of the country’s diamond sales - to temporarily suspend some of its mines.

According to the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme, Botswana will produce 18 million carats worth of diamonds by 2024. It is only second to Russia.

According to the 2026/27 Budget Strategy Paper, which was seen by us on Tuesday, the stockpile had 12 million carats. This is nearly twice the inventory allowed by the government of 6.5 millions carats.

The ministry stated in the budget document that "this suggests that production will remain largely unchanged over the short-term, until inventories are brought down to the minimum permissible levels, creating space for additional production."

It added that the economy will be constrained by a limited capacity to increase output unless non-mining sectors perform well.

Diamonds contribute approximately a third of Botswana’s national revenue and three quarters of its foreign currency receipts.

Botswana exports, including diamonds, to the U.S. now face a 15 percent tariff. The ministry said that higher tariffs on diamond-consuming markets like?India would prolong the lower prices of gems and squeeze profit margins.

This could have a ripple effect on mining operations. "A slowdown in mining would reduce the government's fiscal revenue from this sector," it stated.

Botswana is expected to have mineral revenues of 10.3 billion Pula ($729.24million) in 2025/26. This compares to the historical average annual revenue of 25.3 billion Pula. The lower diamond sales are responsible for this decline.

(source: Reuters)